Flyers working on a Carter Hart Trade

[Thorner]

6 hours ago, Eleven said:

I don't think he played enough without injury to be properly evaluated AND I don't think it matters.  Comrie is an unknown.  If you feel that Hart is a B+ goalie or that Hellebyuck is an A+ goalie, you have to bring them in over an unknown.  Yes, there is a somewhat small chance that Comrie could turn out to be better than Hart, and yes, there is a minuscule chance that he could turn out to be better than Hellebyuck, but the Sabres are no longer at the stage where they should be kicking tires.  They need to buy a good car now.  If they know they can get a good or great one, they should do so, even if it means that the model still in development at the factory is abandoned.

This is such a good post 

[Eleven]

1 minute ago, Thorny said:

This is such a good post 

Thank you sir.

[Curt]

4 hours ago, Dr. Who said:

I was confused by the latter part of your last post that was talking about a compensation of a UPL-like goalie, a second, etc. I guess I'd really rather go after Saros or Hellebuyck if I am going to end up spending a first round prospect that I am at least somewhat high on. (Though I read on another site that the ask for Hellebuyck is 13OA, Krebs, and UPL or Levi straight up. Don't know where that is coming from, but it sounds like Winnipeg is not being reasonable.) I like Hart better as part of a package that includes Helge Grans. Straight up, he's probably worth more than I want to pay for him. 

 

Hellebuyck is one of the 5 best goalies in the world.  You don’t think he is worth 13OA, Krebs, and UPL?

Those are 3 non-elite assets.  A middle 6 or maybe just 3rd line forward, 13OA which could be just about anything, and UPL, who might not be any good at all.

Hart is a soon to be 25 year old goalie with team control who has proven that he can be a viable mid level starting goalie at least.  That’s not worth a Krebs or 13OA?  I think that’s a reasonable value.

[Thorner]

6 minutes ago, Eleven said:

Briere has to realize that he has, at best, the third most attractive option on the goalie market.  If he loves Hart, he'd sign him to a 7x7, since the easiest piece to rebuild around is a goalie, the Flyers are going to have plenty of space, and that represents a major raise for Hart.  Briere isn't doing that, and he knows that Hellebuyck and Saros are better.  I think he'd jump at some of the proposals that you're dismissing.  

Ya I mean I could be wrong. Somewhat ironically I was just re-reading your other post again as you sent that, because it had been playing around in my mind when I was at the Dentist. 

It’s arguments you made therein that sorta informs my thinking on why Hart should/will cost: its the games played. He played over 50 last season. That’s a proven model. We can parse numbers all day, and Hart’s sv% was 40th whatever when looking at every goalie that suited on pads last season, but he was *15th among guys that actually... were good cars*. Guys that we know can put up with the mileage. Guys that can hang with the mileage is what you are paying for. Comries are easily had because you have to guess and extrapolate their numbers. What happened when more was wanted from him? 

Imo there’s sorta a conflation going in and out of frame in real time in various posts along this thread, there are average/mediocre outputs, and then there are average/mediocre outputs within the confines of a starters workload

3 minutes ago, Curt said:

Hellebuyck is one of the 5 best goalies in the world.  You don’t think he is worth 13OA, Krebs, and UPL?

Those are 3 non-elite assets.  A middle 6 or maybe just 3rd line forward, 13OA which could be just about anything, and UPL, who might not be any good at all.

Hart is a soon to be 25 year old goalie with team control who has proven that he can be a viable mid level starting goalie at least.  That’s not worth a Krebs or 13OA?  I think that’s a reasonable value.

We aren’t allowed to care about the 23-24 Sabres, specifically 

We are only renting that year of our lives from God

[Dr. Who]

12 minutes ago, Curt said:

Hellebuyck is one of the 5 best goalies in the world.  You don’t think he is worth 13OA, Krebs, and UPL?

Those are 3 non-elite assets.  A middle 6 or maybe just 3rd line forward, 13OA which could be just about anything, and UPL, who might not be any good at all.

Hart is a soon to be 25 year old goalie with team control who has proven that he can be a viable mid level starting goalie at least.  That’s not worth a Krebs or 13OA?  I think that’s a reasonable value.

I would not pay that for one year of Hellebuyck. I'm sure there are folks here who would, including you apparently. (And I like Hellebuyck. Krebs is what makes that package too much for me.) I wouldn't pay much more than a 2nd, UPL and a B prospect for Hart. Eleven made a point that Briere may overplay his hand there. If Hellebuyck and Saros are both on the market, not really sure about Saros, Hart is the third best available.

[Curt]

15 minutes ago, Thorny said:

Ya I mean I could be wrong. Somewhat ironically I was just re-reading your other post again as you sent that, because it had been playing around in my mind when I was at the Dentist. 

It’s arguments you made therein that sorta informs my thinking on why Hart should/will cost: its the games played. He played over 50 last season. That’s a proven model. We can parse numbers all day, and Hart’s sv% was 40th whatever when looking at every goalie that suited on pads last season, but he was *15th among guys that actually... were good cars*. Guys that we know can put up with the mileage. Guys that can hang with the mileage is what you are paying for. Comries are easily had because you have to guess and extrapolate their numbers. What happened when more was wanted from him? 

Imo there’s sorta a conflation going in and out of frame in real time in various posts along this thread, there are average/mediocre outputs, and then there are average/mediocre outputs within the confines of a starters workload

We aren’t allowed to care about the 23-24 Sabres, specifically 

We are only renting that year of our lives from God

The thing is that even with a purely long term view in mind, the Sabres could be better off with Hart than with Krebs or 13OA (for example).  Krebs is looking alright but nothing that’s truly changing the team’s fortunes.  A Hart/Levi tandem would be great for a few years.

I remember 4 years ago Hart was like the best goalie prospect in the NHL and started his career hot.  4 years from now Levi could be at the exact same place that Hart is now.  There is no guarantee that he is a world beater.  I support bringing in a good young goalie to split starts with him.

Better than pay even more for Helluybuck and signing him to a big fat long term contract that may age like poo.

Edited June 7, 2023 by Curt

[Curt]

1 minute ago, Dr. Who said:

I would not pay that for one year of Hellebuyck. I'm sure there are folks here who would, including you apparently. (And I like Hellebuyck. Krebs is what makes that package too much for me.) I wouldn't pay much more than a 2nd, UPL and a B prospect for Hart. Eleven made a point that Briere may overplay his hand there. If Hellebuyck and Saros are both on the market, not really sure about Saros, Hart is the third best available.

I wouldn’t pay that for one year.  I actually wouldn’t trade much of anything for one year.  A contract agreement, at least in principle, would need to be part of the deal.

[Thorner]

3 minutes ago, Curt said:

The thing is that even with a purely long term view in mind, the Sabres could be better off with Hart than with Krebs or 13OA (for example).  Krebs is looking alright but nothing that’s truly changing the team’s fortunes.  A Hart/Levi tandem would be great for a few years.

I remember 4 years ago Hart was like the best goalie prospect in the NHL and started his career hot.  4 years from now Levi could be at the exact same place that Hart is now.  There is no guarantee that he is a world beater.  I support bringing in a good young goalie to split starts with him.

Better than pay even more for Helluybuck and signing him to a big fat long term contract that may age like poo.

You know what they say, once you drive the new mystery box off the lot...

wait, you guys have me mixing metaphors now 

2 minutes ago, Curt said:

I wouldn’t pay that for one year.  I actually wouldn’t trade much of anything for one year.  A contract agreement, at least in principle, would need to be part of the deal.

Wait, I thought you said 13 for Helle was good 

[Flashsabre]

Saros for 2 years is who I would give the big package for. Not Hellebuyck for 1 year. 

Getting Hart would be interesting but it would have to be a fair deal.

#13, UPL, #39 for Hart and #22

[Curt]

11 minutes ago, Thorny said:

You know what they say, once you drive the new mystery box off the lot...

wait, you guys have me mixing metaphors now 

Wait, I thought you said 13 for Helle was good 

In a vacuum, I think he is worth quite a bit, definitely more than just 13OA, but it depends.

In real life a GM will gather some decent idea about whether he would be interested in signing an extension.  That info is going to heavily influence what I’d be willing to pay in a trade.

[Taro T]

36 minutes ago, Curt said:

Hellebuyck is one of the 5 best goalies in the world.  You don’t think he is worth 13OA, Krebs, and UPL?

Those are 3 non-elite assets.  A middle 6 or maybe just 3rd line forward, 13OA which could be just about anything, and UPL, who might not be any good at all.

Hart is a soon to be 25 year old goalie with team control who has proven that he can be a viable mid level starting goalie at least.  That’s not worth a Krebs or 13OA?  I think that’s a reasonable value.

Losing Krebs for Hellebucyk in that proposed package would be painful, but would do that every single day and twice on Sunday even without the guaranteed contract extension in hand.  (Not every player that gets traded during his final contract year ends up walking at the end of the year.  Sabres would still have 5 months of regular season before the trade deadline to figure out if/how Helly fits into their midterm/LT plans.)

Would not offer Krebs in a package for Hart.  Would reluctantly include 13OA for him but expect Adams could come up with a legit package for him that doesn't include 13OA.  Might mean Olofsson, Filly's 2nd, and maybe Murray; but can see Hart costing less than 13OA + or Krebs +.

[Broken Ankles]

On 6/6/2023 at 12:10 PM, PASabreFan said:

Throw in Laura (make that Lauren) Hart, Mary Hart and the corpse of Gene Hart and it's a deal.

Can the Flyers 2nd get me Jennifer Hart?   I would accept Jonathan Hart as a cap dump in this deal.  

Stephanie Powers was dynamite circa 1980. 

[RochesterExpat]

5 hours ago, Thorny said:

How did you determine his sv% was below average this season?

Sorry for the lack of clarity. I meant recency bias toward a lower SV% (e.g. closer to .900 than .915) make his career numbers listed out on a season basis look better than they are. His real numbers for 3 of his 5 NHL seasons are below league average compared to goalies with 20 or 25 starts (sorry, I can’t remember which number I pulled earlier). This season he was above average. I didn’t mean to suggest otherwise.

The trend over the last decade is lower SV%. It’s why numbers in a vacuum are meaningless. In 2014-2015, for goalies with 25 or more starts, only 3 of 46 were below .900 (6.5%). The 23rd spot was .916. In 2022-2023, 19 of 53 goalies (35.8%) were under .900. Instead of being a middle of the pack 23rd of 46, a .916 this season was 10th of 53.

For the record, 19 of the 46 goalies in 2014-2015 had negative GSAx (41.3%). In 2022-2023, 22 of 53 goalies had negative GSAx (41.5%). That is one of the reasons GSAx is a generally better metric for this type of comparison.

Edited June 8, 2023 by RochesterExpat

[dudacek]

I have been perhaps the biggest Levi booster on this board for a long time now.

The presence of Devon Levi should in no way discourage the Buffalo Sabres from acquiring any competent goalie. You need  two of them.

Play the new guy until Levi takes his job then trade him. If Levi doesn’t take his job, trade Levi.

 

[Archie Lee]

15 hours ago, PerreaultForever said:

Philly is deconstructing, no question. Is there a Philly vet we'd want? I don't think so. 

Hart however, is a big upgrade and gives us stability while Levi develops. 

Give them Olafsson and their 2nd back, maybe throw in a late pick some year and get it done. 

(I do find it amusing though that so many people want to ditch UPL and/or Comrie and then they are worried about losing them if waived. Neither one matters.)

I haven’t read every post in this thread, but my sense is that in general people would take Hart if the price was low. The price you suggest is not getting Hart. The price you suggest is next to nothing. If we can get Hart for next to nothing then I am fine with acquiring him. The cost will be a lot higher than what you suggest though. 

[French Collection]

6 hours ago, dudacek said:

I have been perhaps the biggest Levi booster on this board for a long time now.

The presence of Devon Levi should in no way discourage the Buffalo Sabres from acquiring any competent goalie. You need  two of them.

Play the new guy until Levi takes his job then trade him. If Levi doesn’t take his job, trade Levi.

 

It is that simple.

[JohnC]

12 hours ago, Taro T said:

Losing Krebs for Hellebucyk in that proposed package would be painful, but would do that every single day and twice on Sunday even without the guaranteed contract extension in hand.  (Not every player that gets traded during his final contract year ends up walking at the end of the year.  Sabres would still have 5 months of regular season before the trade deadline to figure out if/how Helly fits into their midterm/LT plans.)

Would not offer Krebs in a package for Hart.  Would reluctantly include 13OA for him but expect Adams could come up with a legit package for him that doesn't include 13OA.  Might mean Olofsson, Filly's 2nd, and maybe Murray; but can see Hart costing less than 13OA + or Krebs +.

Hellebucyk is one of the best goalies in the game. There's no question about that. Even after acknowledging his superior talent it would be a mistake to not only give up a valuable high first round pick, but an even bigger mistake to trade the emerging Krebs who took a quantum leap in development last season. The type of deal that you are proposing for a player who will be an UFA in a year goes against everything that the GM has espoused since he took over the reins. I just don't see a Hellebuyck deal coming to fruition mostly because of his contract status. 

If you proposed this deal for Saros who is locked up for two years, I would be more amenable to it but still reluctant because of the inclusion of Krebs. 

[nfreeman]

7 hours ago, dudacek said:

I have been perhaps the biggest Levi booster on this board for a long time now.

The presence of Devon Levi should in no way discourage the Buffalo Sabres from acquiring any competent goalie. You need  two of them.

Play the new guy until Levi takes his job then trade him. If Levi doesn’t take his job, trade Levi.

 

I think most here agree with this.  The question really is what is the right price to pay. 

[sabresparaavida]

21 hours ago, Eleven said:

I don't think he played enough without injury to be properly evaluated AND I don't think it matters.  Comrie is an unknown.  If you feel that Hart is a B+ goalie or that Hellebyuck is an A+ goalie, you have to bring them in over an unknown.  Yes, there is a somewhat small chance that Comrie could turn out to be better than Hart, and yes, there is a minuscule chance that he could turn out to be better than Hellebyuck, but the Sabres are no longer at the stage where they should be kicking tires.  They need to buy a good car now.  If they know they can get a good or great one, they should do so, even if it means that the model still in development at the factory is abandoned.

Just want to expand on the car analogy real quick. 
 

If players are cars that you can buy and sell, goalies would be more like the used car market. And for these used car sales, you aren’t allowed to test drive the car, nor look under the hood before you buy. You could buy an expensive classic car like Hellebuyck, but you could break down driving it home, it could have rust in the engine block, or it might drive just fine. With Goalies, there is no knowing that the car will be good or great. 
 

Just look at the goalies that changed teams  last year. 
 

Samsonov and Georgiev were both bad in 21/22, but were top 10 in save percentage last year. 
Husso, Campbell, Comrie all played horrible after putting up good numbers.

Some, like Hill and Vanaceck, performed similarly to before switching teams.

And if you believe that these goalies were unproven, and that because Helle has been more consistent than them he will continue to be, you may be mistaken. 
 

The best comp for Hellebuyck, assuming he switched teams, of the past few years would probably be Phillip Grubauer. It’s not an exact fit, as Helle played more games each season. However, before going to the Kraken, Grubauer’s worst season save percentage was .916, which happens to be Hellebuyck’s career average. Grubauer was 30 when he switched to the Kraken, as Helle is 30 now. Since switching to the Kraken, Grubauer has not beaten .890. 
 

While we could get Hellebuyck, he could be elite, average, below average, or downright awful. There is no guarantee that he will be good or great, but Winnipeg will want to be paid as such, and he will want to be paid for his next contract based on his success with Winnipeg. In my mind, it is unlikely that he will be worth the combination of assets and cap that he will require.

Edited June 8, 2023 by sabresparaavida

[Crusader1969]

14 hours ago, Flashsabre said:

Saros for 2 years is who I would give the big package for. Not Hellebuyck for 1 year. 

Getting Hart would be interesting but it would have to be a fair deal.

#13, UPL, #39 for Hart and #22

i agree completely,  If you give up the 13th pick for Hart, you need 22 coming back.

My other question would be is how much better is Hart than Hill,  Raanta or Andersen who you can get with just $$$?

[French Collection]

45 minutes ago, Crusader1969 said:

i agree completely,  If you give up the 13th pick for Hart, you need 22 coming back.

My other question would be is how much better is Hart than Hill,  Raanta or Andersen who you can get with just $$$?

I’m not opposed to getting Hart and I trust KA will not overpay as he has been careful so far.

The thing with Hart vs the UFAs is that he is only 24 and has some upside. Goalies often don’t break in to the NHL until 25 to 27 so he was elite plus on a bad team to get 5 years in already. 
 

A new team, coaching staff, goalie coach could polish his game to be 1/2 of a solid tandem. If he or Levi become a guy that needs 55-60 starts then you can move the other and bring in a backup with a small cap hit.

[Brawndo]

 

[GASabresIUFAN]

7 minutes ago, Brawndo said:

 

If I were Briere I won’t be moving a quality 24 year old goalie either, but does Hart want to go through a rebuild getting shelled every night?  

If I were Hart’s agent, I’d pull a Tkachuk and tell Danny to find him a new home because he doesn’t plan to sign an extension.  Seriously what will Hart’s trade value be a year from now if gets pounded on a terrible Philly team?

Of course, Hart may love Philly, but does anyone really like Philly? 

Edited June 8, 2023 by GASabresIUFAN

[Marvin]

40 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

Of course, Hart may love Philly, but does anyone really like Philly? 

Certainly not Santa Claus.

[JohnC]

Within this WGR link is an 18 minute segment with Marty Biron talking about the Sabre goaltending and the possible trade market. There are a number of options which include staying pat. My impression is that Marty isn't that enamored with Hart. At the end of the discussion Marty indicates he's more supportive of Comrie than UPL as a backup option.

https://www.audacy.com/wgr550/authors/howard-and-jeremy-show