Flyers working on a Carter Hart Trade

[Thorner]

7 minutes ago, Dr. Who said:

I think Rosen is closer to the answer, but I may overvalue goalie at this point. (And I don't want to trade Rosen, nor do I want to actually give the Flyers equal value. I want to fleece them, but if I can't do that, pay as little as possible.)

I think this is still too low but, going with it, is Rosen still worth the first round pick we used to get him? 

Or would you deal him for a 2nd, a UPL ish goalie? What about if they REALLY wanted to get your attention, by throwing in a 6th round pick, not this draft, but the next. How bout now?

[Thorner]

4 minutes ago, thewookie1 said:

Strangely yes in terms of value

What about the 3 bad years thing you said 

[GASabresIUFAN]

12 minutes ago, PromoTheRobot said:

I think he'll be traded first. Besides, are you putting Comrie ahead of Subban on the Amerks?

Subban is a UFA.

[nfreeman]

13 minutes ago, Thorny said:

Thanks for this. So, a bonafide starting goalie who was about 15th out of 107 last year by the advanced metrics, who played over 50 NHL games last season, is worth roughly a prospect, mid pair d-man who might be an NHLer, in a few years. Just trying to take the temperature, this definitely suffices 

Leaving aside the self-assured snark, he was 15th by ONE advanced metric, right?  Not all of them?  Any others in addition to the one you posted?

FWIW, he was 22nd in SV% last year.

Do you think he'll return something equivalent to #13, Kulich, Östlund, Rosen, etc.?

It's also worth noting that a key factor here is Hart's value to the Sabres -- not just his overall market value in the NHL.  I don't think KA is looking for, or willing to pay market price for, a goalie for the next 5 years -- he wants someone to work with Levi for the next 1-2 years until Levi is ready to be the 55-60 game starter.

 

2 minutes ago, Eleven said:

I would be unwilling to trade any of the aforementioned players for Hart other than Savoie (I am not as high on him as most people are--and more on that in a minute), Rosen, and Östlund.  #13 certainly is in play, especially with @LGR4GM's evaluation of this draft pool.  And some of these would need to be in packages with more coming back to the Sabres.  Johnson is untradeable due to lack of D depth, not because he's going to light the world on fire like Canada has.

Östlund straight up?  Sure.

Rosen straight up?  Maybe.  MAYBE.  As others have noted, we will need cheaper players in a few years, and I do think Rosen will be a contributor at the NHL level in 2024-25 ish.

Savoie is interesting.  His ceiling, IMO, is no other than the GM of the Flyers himself, Danny Briere.  And I don't think Savoie will get there, but Danny just might see enough of himself in the kid to give the Sabres Hart, Grans, and some other piece (9/10D maybe?).

#13OA is another opportunity to get more than just Hart out of the trade.

It doesn't have to be about packaging assets to get Hart.  It can be about sending a more valuable asset--at young forward, where the Sabres are overstocked--and getting a package back.

Good point -- certainly my willingness to part with some of the assets I mentioned would increase if there were more coming back than just Hart.

[GASabresIUFAN]

17 minutes ago, thewookie1 said:

 

In the end one effective year doesn't erase the 3 or so bad ones

He's had one bad year in 5 NHL seasons.  His save % year by year .917, .914, .877, .905 and .907.  The last two incredibly behind terrible Philly D groups and lousy overall Philly teams.  

[Dr. Who]

4 minutes ago, Thorny said:

I think this is still too low but, going with it, is Rosen still worth the first round pick we used to get him? 

Or would you deal him for a 2nd, a UPL ish goalie? What about if they REALLY wanted to get your attention, by throwing in a 6th round pick, not this draft, but the next. How bout now?

I'm starting to think Rosen may live up to his draft pick. I'm only interested in a true upgrade in goal, so no packages that are sending back what I already have are of interest.

[Eleven]

5 minutes ago, nfreeman said:

Good point -- certainly my willingness to part with some of the assets I mentioned would increase if there were more coming back than just Hart.

I think this is the way the deal gets done, if Adams wants to do it.  Send what is viewed (correctly or not so) as a "premium" asset, which is disposable to the Sabres, for Hart and more.  I'd prefer Hellebyuck, as any sane person should, but he's going to cost considerably more, for three reasons:  (1) He's a consistent Vezina candidate; (2) Winnipeg is not in rebuild mode (it should be but isn't); and (3) Cheveldayoff, while an idiot, is not a rookie GM.

Edited June 7, 2023 by Eleven

[Thorner]

15 minutes ago, Dr. Who said:

I'm starting to think Rosen may live up to his draft pick. I'm only interested in a true upgrade in goal, so no packages that are sending back what I already have are of interest.

But you said Rosen is a comparable in value, for you, and you think he’s worth at least a 1st. Considering the Flyers are reportedly not shopping Hart, if their evaluation lines up with yours I’d imagine they’d also have the barometer at at least a first. 

Is the implication of your last sentence that Hart is just more of the same to what we have in UPL and Comrie or am I misreading that 

[Randall Flagg]

43 minutes ago, Thorny said:

4 of his 5 seasons, as a developing G trying to break into the league, behind a bad team, are at a .905 sv% or ABOVE.

.917, .914, .877, .905, .907

Isnt the .877 the outlier?

...I know mystery box thinking is a big thing but I didn’t think it was THIS prevalent. Is the secret just.. not playing? Hart, as a young man, playing really pretty well tanks his value, because if he simply failed to seize a starting role in a decade, he’d be an “unknown” like Comrie with sky high potential retained? 

It’s just Schrödinger's cat, where we assume the unknown is best case scenario and punish and documented results that aren’t that 

“Peter Parker. Brilliant...but lazy.”

Imo we are at a point where we should throw out everything pertaining to bubble hockey. 

[Dr. Who]

1 minute ago, Thorny said:

But you said Rosen is a comparable in value, for you, and you think he’s worth at least a 1st. Considering the Flyers are reportedly not shopping Hart, if their evaluation lines up with yours I’d imagine they’d also have the barometer at at least a first. 

Is the implication of your last sentence that Hart is just more of the same to what we have in UPL and Comrie or am I misreading that 

I was confused by the latter part of your last post that was talking about a compensation of a UPL-like goalie, a second, etc. I guess I'd really rather go after Saros or Hellebuyck if I am going to end up spending a first round prospect that I am at least somewhat high on. (Though I read on another site that the ask for Hellebuyck is 13OA, Krebs, and UPL or Levi straight up. Don't know where that is coming from, but it sounds like Winnipeg is not being reasonable.) I like Hart better as part of a package that includes Helge Grans. Straight up, he's probably worth more than I want to pay for him. 

 

[Thorner]

1 minute ago, Dr. Who said:

I was confused by the latter part of your last post that was talking about a compensation of a UPL-like goalie, a second, etc. I guess I'd really rather go after Saros or Hellebuyck if I am going to end up spending a first round prospect that I am at least somewhat high on. (Though I read on another site that the ask for Hellebuyck is 13OA, Krebs, and UPL or Levi straight up. Don't know where that is coming from, but it sounds like Winnipeg is not being reasonable.) I like Hart better as part of a package that includes Helge Grans. Straight up, he's probably worth more than I want to pay for him. 

 

Winnipegers are notorious for this 

[Marvin]

7 minutes ago, Randall Flagg said:

Imo we are at a point where we should throw out everything pertaining to bubble hockey. 

Except for us getting Owen Power, right?

[Marvin]

7 minutes ago, Dr. Who said:

I was confused by the latter part of your last post that was talking about a compensation of a UPL-like goalie, a second, etc. I guess I'd really rather go after Saros or Hellebuyck if I am going to end up spending a first round prospect that I am at least somewhat high on. (Though I read on another site that the ask for Hellebuyck is 13OA, Krebs, and UPL or Levi straight up. Don't know where that is coming from, but it sounds like Winnipeg is not being reasonable.) I like Hart better as part of a package that includes Helge Grans. Straight up, he's probably worth more than I want to pay for him. 

 

I saw those comments.  That is why I am becoming increasingly convinced that the only moves GMKA will make are for mid-range UFAs on D and G.  Levi is apparently required with sweeteners for a goaltender because he is not established.  Cozens is needed for an established defenceman because the Sabres only have 2 potential top 4 D in Dahlin and Power.  If those are the asks, then IMHO, then the 3-headed monster of Levi-Comrie-UPL is better than even money for next season.

[Flashsabre]

Potentially Available goaltending tiers this summer:

1) Saros, Hellebuyck 

2) Ullmark or Swayman, Hart, Demko

3) Andersen, Korpisalo, Raanta, Jarry etc

Lots of opportunity at different levels. Just depends what Adam’s idea is.

[Eleven]

47 minutes ago, Flashsabre said:

Potentially Available goaltending tiers this summer:

1) Saros, Hellebuyck 

2) Ullmark or Swayman, Hart, Demko

3) Andersen, Korpisalo, Raanta, Jarry etc

Lots of opportunity at different levels. Just depends what Adam’s idea is.

Do you think tier 3 is an improvement on the existing situation?  I'm not sure I do or don't.  

Your first two tiers are.  But Adams won't bring Ullmark back (perhaps out of stubbornness but I'd hope because of intra-divisional trade) and Swayman is not going anywhere.  So that leaves Hart or Demko.  Demko has the right contract term, but because of that, he's going to cost more in a trade.  Hart is the right guy in tier 2.

In tier 1, we find the Sabres overpaying, I think.  I have wanted Hellebuyck on this team since his WJC season, and I'd still love him here.  But with Levi in the wings, I'd be unwilling to overspend on one season of Hellebyuck. (Hart, on the other hand, who also has only one season, I think can be had more reasonably and as part of a package).  Saros, it really depends on what they want.  I haven't seen so much of him.  

Edited June 7, 2023 by Eleven

[Marvin]

Just saw a thing from a Flyers guy who heard that the ask for Hart is Owen Power.

[Zamboni]

2 minutes ago, Marvin said:

Just saw a thing from a Flyers guy who heard that the ask for Hart is Owen Power.

“A flyers guy”?

[Marvin]

1 minute ago, Zamboni said:

“A flyers guy”?

Some reputable Flyers fan allegedly with connections inside the organisation.

[Dr. Who]

No idea where the post is coming from. I thought it was a joke or a drunken Flyers' fan behind it. Said Power for Hart, Grans, and 2024 CBJ 2nd. 

 

[Derrico]

 

33 minutes ago, Eleven said:

Do you think tier 3 is an improvement on the existing situation?  I'm not sure I do or don't.  

I do.  Our goaltending stunk.  

[Marvin]

7 minutes ago, Dr. Who said:

No idea where the post is coming from. I thought it was a joke or a drunken Flyers' fan behind it. Said Power for Hart, Grans, and 2024 CBJ 2nd. 

 

Oh, that one is different.  It is just less hilariously bad.

[Eleven]

21 minutes ago, Marvin said:

Just saw a thing from a Flyers guy who heard that the ask for Hart is Owen Power.

 

15 minutes ago, Marvin said:

Some reputable Flyers fan allegedly with connections inside the organisation.

Well then "Flyers guy" can take a flying leap, because NFW.

[Zamboni]

15 minutes ago, Marvin said:

Some reputable Flyers fan allegedly with connections inside the organisation.

Sooooo nobody 😂 

Although they could ask for anything. Doesn’t mean the team on the receiving end is going to take it seriously 😎

[Eleven]

11 minutes ago, Dr. Who said:

No idea where the post is coming from. I thought it was a joke or a drunken Flyers' fan behind it. Said Power for Hart, Grans, and 2024 CBJ 2nd. 

 

Please link this here.  I need it.  Please.

[DHawerchuk10]

23 minutes ago, Marvin said:

Some reputable Flyers fan allegedly with connections inside the organisation.

If I were Adams, I’d hang up the phone immediately and never do business with Briere ever again.  That is a laughable request.  I guess UPL, Bryson, and our second could secure us Jiricek +?