Noah Östlund to play in in the SHL for the 2023-24 Season

[LGR4GM]

18 hours ago, Flashsabre said:

Östlund’s better then what will be available at 13

Different, idk about better. Hard to say. 

[GASabresIUFAN]

Östlund, Rosen and our 13th pick are clearly our most trade-able assets.  Both prospects are behind Kulich and Savoie, neither should be used on a 4th line and both have a huge uphill climb to win top 9 roles within the next few seasons.  

With Tuch, Tnt, Skinner, JJP, Cozens, Quinn, Mitts, Krebs, and Greenway you have 9 guys under or control for the next few years, and Kulich and Savoie pushing for roster spots as early as next season. Surely we can afford to move on from Östlund or Rosen to bolster weaknesses in on our roster and in our pipeline.

FYI: The odds are the 13th pick will be a forward and a very talented one.  By most accounts this is a significantly deeper and more talented draft class than last year.  

We need D help short and long-term.  It’s time to turn some of these excess forwards into D.

[GASabresIUFAN]

41 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

Östlund's biggest obstacle right now is his strength, he needs 20lbs of muscle. 

He’s also at least another 2 years from sniffing the NHL and even then he may be blocked by the deep young roster ahead of him.  

Long-term the Sabres have 3 D roster spots available and only Johnson in the pipeline to possibly take one.  

[Taro T]

12 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

Östlund, Rosen and our 13th pick are clearly our most trade-able assets.  Both prospects are behind Kulich and Savoie, neither should be used on a 4th line and both have a huge uphill climb to win top 9 roles within the next few seasons.  

With Tuch, Tnt, Skinner, JJP, Cozens, Quinn, Mitts, Krebs, and Greenway you have 9 guys under or control for the next few years, and Kulich and Savoie pushing for roster spots as early as next season. Surely we can afford to move on from Östlund or Rosen to bolster weaknesses in on our roster and in our pipeline.

FYI: The odds are the 13th pick will be a forward and a very talented one.  By most accounts this is a significantly deeper and more talented draft class than last year.  

We need D help short and long-term.  It’s time to turn some of these excess forwards into D.

Don't overlook Olofsson.  28 goal scorers don't just grow on trees and if he goes to a team that'll put him on the top PP he could hit 30.

[LGR4GM]

12 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

Östlund, Rosen and our 13th pick are clearly our most trade-able assets.  Both prospects are behind Kulich and Savoie, neither should be used on a 4th line and both have a huge uphill climb to win top 9 roles within the next few seasons.  

With Tuch, Tnt, Skinner, JJP, Cozens, Quinn, Mitts, Krebs, and Greenway you have 9 guys under or control for the next few years, and Kulich and Savoie pushing for roster spots as early as next season. Surely we can afford to move on from Östlund or Rosen to bolster weaknesses in on our roster and in our pipeline.

FYI: The odds are the 13th pick will be a forward and a very talented one.  By most accounts this is a significantly deeper and more talented draft class than last year.  

We need D help short and long-term.  It’s time to turn some of these excess forwards into D.

I put in bold 3 players who may or not be here when Östlund is NHL ready. Rosen too. 

Not at #13 it isn't. It is almost exactly the same. Also "significantly"? anyone saying that is flat out wrong and simply looking through their Bedard and Fantilli glasses. 

Just now, Taro T said:

Don't overlook Olofsson.  28 goal scorers don't just grow on trees and if he goes to a team that'll put him on the top PP he could hit 30.

Olofsson will never hit 30goals. 

10 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

He’s also at least another 2 years from sniffing the NHL and even then he may be blocked by the deep young roster ahead of him.  

Long-term the Sabres have 3 D roster spots available and only Johnson in the pipeline to possibly take one.  

This is factually inaccurate. They also have Komarov and Novikov and whatever they draft this year as potential options. I am fine with trading a forward prospect for a defender but ppl like you are acting as if Östlund is just some expendable nobody. 

[Taro T]

1 minute ago, LGR4GM said:

I put in bold 3 players who may or not be here when Östlund is NHL ready. Rosen too. 

Not at #13 it isn't. It is almost exactly the same. Also "significantly"? anyone saying that is flat out wrong and simply looking through their Bedard and Fantilli glasses. 

Olofsson will never hit 30goals. 

Perhaps he won't.  But, had he not been healthy scratched several games this year &/or had he gotten more PP1 usage, he very likely would've done it this past season. 

Depends on where he's at and who he's playing with.  If he's getting top 6 usage and more importantly PP1 on a decent team wouldn't bet against it ever happening.  (And, no, wouldn't bet on it happening either.  That's kind of the point of using the word COULD; it's a possibility but far from a certainty.)

[nfreeman]

1 hour ago, LGR4GM said:

I disagree with this 1000%. The plan was always for Östlund to stay in Europe for 2 years. The only question was if his team would get promoted back to the SHL and if not would he find a good landing spot to play in the SHL. The only reason he would have been in Rochester this year is if there as no SHL landing spot and he was going back into the Allsveskan. 

Has anyone from the Sabres said this?  It seems like they have been pretty consistent, and open, about wanting to get their prospects to Rochester.

[GASabresIUFAN]

4 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

I put in bold 3 players who may or not be here when Östlund is NHL ready. Rosen too. 

Not at #13 it isn't. It is almost exactly the same. Also "significantly"? anyone saying that is flat out wrong and simply looking through their Bedard and Fantilli glasses. 

Olofsson will never hit 30goals. 

This is factually inaccurate. They also have Komarov and Novikov and whatever they draft this year as potential options. I am fine with trading a forward prospect for a defender but ppl like you are acting as if Östlund is just some expendable nobody. 

No one is saying Östlund is a nobody.  You have to give to get.  If you trade for a good D prospect you have to give a good asset back.  

As to the defenders, Novikov and Komarov are at least two years from making an impact in Buffalo assuming they make the Sabres at all.  Both look to have NHL potential, especially Novikov, but the last 5th round or later D to make an impact on the Sabres was Brian Campbell (D 1997).  (Wideman was drafted in the 8th rd but never signed with the Sabres.) Until we see either guy with the Amerks, I’m skeptical of both players.

[GASabresIUFAN]

25 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

This is factually inaccurate. They also have Komarov and Novikov and whatever they draft this year as potential options. I am fine with trading a forward prospect for a defender but ppl like you are acting as if Östlund is just some expendable nobody. 

Actually this is in accurate.  All of the Sabres D, except Samuelsson are RFAs or on one year deals. The only prospect currently in Rochester is Johnson and he is the only one close to NHL ready to possibly replace one of the guys on an expiring contract.  Komarov is headed back to the CHL and Novikov, although signed, has yet to arrive in Rochester and is unlikely to be NHL ready during his first season in NA. As I also noted above, to count on either player is only a hope at this point.

Edited June 6, 2023 by GASabresIUFAN

[dudacek]

My initial reaction to the above string of posts was “there we go, minimizing Krebs again” but that would be my own bias talking.

The fact if the matter is none of the forwards who are Sabre property are safe from being trade bait, not even Tuch and Thompson.

Right now, Cozens might be the cream of the crop of the kids. Two years from now, maybe he’s stalled as a 60 point scorer while Krebs and Östlund have hit the same level at cheaper prices and Cozens has become our most marketable trade piece.

Right now, Kulich might be the apple of Sabrespace. Two years from now, maybe he’s struggling to make the jump while Rosen is coming off a 22-goal rookie season and he, Quinn and Peterka have made re-signing Tuch poor cap management.

The story has played out to the point Thompson and Cozens and Samuelsson have earned term, but that’s about it. They don’t have trade protection, and they do have marketable contracts.

Their full stories have yet to be told. The stories of the Savoies and the Poltapovs haven’t even started yet.

We will need to trade people, but we don’t need to trade them yet.

The buyers will determine who goes nearly as much as the sellers.

[French Collection]

24 minutes ago, dudacek said:

My initial reaction to the above string of posts was “there we go, minimizing Krebs again” but that would be my own bias talking.

The fact if the matter is none of the forwards who are Sabre property are safe from being trade bait, not even Tuch and Thompson.

Right now, Cozens might be the cream of the crop of the kids. Two years from now, maybe he’s stalled as a 60 point scorer while Krebs and Östlund have hit the same level at cheaper prices and Cozens has become our most marketable trade piece.

Right now, Kulich might be the apple of Sabrespace. Two years from now, maybe he’s struggling to make the jump while Rosen is coming off a 22-goal rookie season and he, Quinn and Peterka have made re-signing Tuch poor cap management.

The story has played out to the point Thompson and Cozens and Samuelsson have earned term, but that’s about it. They don’t have trade protection, and they do have marketable contracts.

Their full stories have yet to be told. The stories of the Savoies and the Poltapovs haven’t even started yet.

We will need to trade people, but we don’t need to trade them yet.

The buyers will determine who goes nearly as much as the sellers.

It is interesting there is no trade protection with TNT, Cozens and Mule. I wonder if KA insisted on it.

Those contracts are extremely tradeable, even Gretzky was traded so you are right that no one can be ruled out.

Will Dahlin push for it?

[dudacek]

3 minutes ago, French Collection said:

It is interesting there is no trade protection with TNT, Cozens and Mule. I wonder if KA insisted on it.

Those contracts are extremely tradeable, even Gretzky was traded so you are right that no one can be ruled out.

Will Dahlin push for it?

Dahlin has earned it, IMO, he’s the centrepiece.

But ideally I’d avoid them.

I just think the idea that Östlund is “easier to sacrifice” at this stage of their careers is short-sighted. Jason Pominville was “easier to sacrifice” than Jiri Novotny in 2002.

Let’s see a little more of what they have to offer before deciding who is core and who isn’t.

[Taro T]

47 minutes ago, dudacek said:

My initial reaction to the above string of posts was “there we go, minimizing Krebs again” but that would be my own bias talking.

The fact if the matter is none of the forwards who are Sabre property are safe from being trade bait, not even Tuch and Thompson.

Right now, Cozens might be the cream of the crop of the kids. Two years from now, maybe he’s stalled as a 60 point scorer while Krebs and Östlund have hit the same level at cheaper prices and Cozens has become our most marketable trade piece.

Right now, Kulich might be the apple of Sabrespace. Two years from now, maybe he’s struggling to make the jump while Rosen is coming off a 22-goal rookie season and he, Quinn and Peterka have made re-signing Tuch poor cap management.

The story has played out to the point Thompson and Cozens and Samuelsson have earned term, but that’s about it. They don’t have trade protection, and they do have marketable contracts.

Their full stories have yet to be told. The stories of the Savoies and the Poltapovs haven’t even started yet.

We will need to trade people, but we don’t need to trade them yet.

The buyers will determine who goes nearly as much as the sellers.

All of this.  PLUS the Sabres COULD fill all 4 legit roster holes they have (1A/1B goalie, #3/4D, additional #5/6D, and 4C/PK specialist) via free agency.

IF the right trade is there (and don't forget the 28 goal man that didn't have a spot in the top 12 last year as a trade piece), sure trade away something that might hurt.  But right now, Adams ISN'T in a position where he HAS to make a trade to get the team over the hump.  The right trade could definitely help in that regard; but don't see him having a glut that has to be addressed until most likely next off-season and possibly the following one.  At that point, there will necessarily be some good players (either prospects ready to make the jump or vets losing their jobs to younger guys) that will need to be traded away to both fill current holes and to stretch the window out.  

And realistically we could see as few as only 1 new body coming onto this team from the outside (really don't see any way around them bringing in a 4D and simply don't see him in the organization unless either Lybushkin or Jokiharju make a substantial jump) but really hope Adams brings in at least 2 if not 3 of those pieces.  All 4 would be great, but just not seeing it actually happening.

And getting back to the thought on trades, yes, some of these pieces won't max out their potential, but am expecting more of them will be making a jump from last year to this upcoming one than will be stalling out and that will make whomever is (are) the guy(s) without a chair when the music stops all that much more valuable to a trade partner.  Will use a guy this kid really likes as an example, Peterka has decent trade value today as a rookie 12 goal scorer; but he'll have serious value if he becomes a 24 goal scorer next year.  And if the usual 2nd line stays together next year, he could very well make that jump.  Would hate to see him traded away, but he (or Krebs or ______) might be the key piece to bring in one of those few pieces the team is still missing next year or the year after.  As long as the team keeps improving &/or they aren't regressing but the window is getting wider am ok with just about any move Adams makes.  Though there will start to be trades that do hurt initially.  Since the Eichel deal, there hasn't been anything of note that went out the door; we're likely into the last year of that being the case.

[Taro T]

31 minutes ago, dudacek said:

Dahlin has earned it, IMO, he’s the centrepiece.

But ideally I’d avoid them.

I just think the idea that Östlund is “easier to sacrifice” at this stage of their careers is short-sighted. Jason Pominville was “easier to sacrifice” than Jiri Novotny in 2002.

Let’s see a little more of what they have to offer before deciding who is core and who isn’t.

Hopefully the players agree to no full NMC's.  Even leaving a 10 team group that a player would be willing to be traded to would leave an awful lot of flexibility should Adams need to retool on the fly.

Very much agree with the latter sentiment as well and as stated above, Adams has that luxury at this point for a little while longer.  And expect he'll use that time unless a deal that simply knocks his socks off becomes available.

[LGR4GM]

2 hours ago, Taro T said:

Perhaps he won't.  But, had he not been healthy scratched several games this year &/or had he gotten more PP1 usage, he very likely would've done it this past season. 

Depends on where he's at and who he's playing with.  If he's getting top 6 usage and more importantly PP1 on a decent team wouldn't bet against it ever happening.  (And, no, wouldn't bet on it happening either.  That's kind of the point of using the word COULD; it's a possibility but far from a certainty.)

But if but if but if but if but if but if but if

If Olofsson has the very most perfect season, sure maybe he can hit 30 but if he has anything less he won't. Olofsson is a 22g pp specialist. 

2 hours ago, nfreeman said:

Has anyone from the Sabres said this?  It seems like they have been pretty consistent, and open, about wanting to get their prospects to Rochester.

You can go listen to everything the Sabres have said since drafting Olofsson to now if you want that answer. You should be a big do your own research guy. 

2 hours ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

No one is saying Östlund is a nobody.  You have to give to get.  If you trade for a good D prospect you have to give a good asset back.  

As to the defenders, Novikov and Komarov are at least two years from making an impact in Buffalo assuming they make the Sabres at all.  Both look to have NHL potential, especially Novikov, but the last 5th round or later D to make an impact on the Sabres was Brian Campbell (D 1997).  (Wideman was drafted in the 8th rd but never signed with the Sabres.) Until we see either guy with the Amerks, I’m skeptical of both players.

Yea any prospect you get is going to be a little ways away. That's why they are called prospects. Again, I have no issue with trading Östlund but it would need to be a very specific trade. 

[nfreeman]

Someone woke up on the wrong side of the crib today.

[Taro T]

6 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

But if but if but if but if but if but if but if

If Olofsson has the very most perfect season, sure maybe he can hit 30 but if he has anything less he won't. Olofsson is a 22g pp specialist. 

You can go listen to everything the Sabres have said since drafting Olofsson to now if you want that answer. You should be a big do your own research guy. 

Yea any prospect you get is going to be a little ways away. That's why they are called prospects. Again, I have no issue with trading Östlund but it would need to be a very specific trade. 

Yeah, getting 2nd line usage 5v5 and 1PP usage is "the very most perfect season."  🙄   Should he get that, he has a very legit chance of getting to 30.  If not, yeah, it likely would take a minor miracle for him to get there.

[LGR4GM]

2 hours ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

Actually this is in accurate.  All of the Sabres D, except Samuelsson are RFAs or on one year deals. The only prospect currently in Rochester is Johnson and he is the only one close to NHL ready to possibly replace one of the guys on an expiring contract.  Komarov is headed back to the CHL and Novikov, although signed, has yet to arrive in Rochester and is unlikely to be NHL ready during his first season in NA. As I also noted above, to count on either player is only a hope at this point.

We were talking about prospects. 

Here is what you said "Long-term the Sabres have 3 D roster spots available and only Johnson in the pipeline to possibly take one." Long term meaning what? next year? That isn't long term that is next year. Idk if Johnson will be an NHL guy by then but probably. Novikov spent 2 years in the KHL and will spend this year in the AHL. He might actually be ready next year but who knows. There is UFA, lesser trades, lots of options to fix the issue between now and next June. I am unsure of what point you think you are making right now. 

To the bolded, do you think this means something? Owen Power and Rasmus Dahlin are RFA's but in the sense that it isn't July 1 so they can't sign. That makes replacement a hell of lot easier when slots 1-3 are already filled in. The guys we have to replace are what? Lybushkin, Stillman, and Jokiharju potentially... I mean I would hope Adams has the minimal brain power in the next 2 offseasons to accomplish replacing the 4,5,6 defender either within or without. 

1 minute ago, nfreeman said:

Someone woke up on the wrong side of the crib today.

You seem nice. You should be a mod. @SDS This guy is amazing.

[LGR4GM]

2 minutes ago, Taro T said:

Yeah, getting 2nd line usage 5v5 and 1PP usage is "the very most perfect season."  🙄   Should he get that, he has a very legit chance of getting to 30.  If not, yeah, it likely would take a minor miracle for him to get there.

A couple of things. 5v5 Olofsson is a major on ice liability. No serious team is giving him 2nd line minutes. Second, sure you can put him on your PP1 but teams will shadow towards him as the trigger man and he lacks the skills necessary to really adjust to much to that. So again, in your ideal but if scenario, where he plays 2nd line minutes and gets pp1 time he might just squeak out 30 but I highly doubt it. 

[Taro T]

2 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

A couple of things. 5v5 Olofsson is a major on ice liability. No serious team is giving him 2nd line minutes. Second, sure you can put him on your PP1 but teams will shadow towards him as the trigger man and he lacks the skills necessary to really adjust to much to that. So again, in your ideal but if scenario, where he plays 2nd line minutes and gets pp1 time he might just squeak out 30 but I highly doubt it. 

No team is giving him 2nd line minutes?  The Sabres only 3 or so years ago were giving him 1st line minutes.  Never say never.

Also, he got 20 goals a year ago missing 10 games with a wrist injury and never really recovering from it until there were about 3 weeks left in the season.  While playing through the injury his shot was a shell of it's normal velocity and accuracy.  This year, he got 28 playing 3rd line minutes the significant majority of the season and 2PP for the majority of it as well; and that's with being benched down the stretch.  Had he not been benched, even with the less than ideal usage (from his perspective, not from the team's) he was only 2 goals short of that round number.

It's not crazy to expect that in 2 seasons, after he's adjusted to his new linemates that 30 goals is possible for him especially if he's getting 2W & 1PP usage.

[French Collection]

58 minutes ago, dudacek said:

Dahlin has earned it, IMO, he’s the centrepiece.

But ideally I’d avoid them.

I just think the idea that Östlund is “easier to sacrifice” at this stage of their careers is short-sighted. Jason Pominville was “easier to sacrifice” than Jiri Novotny in 2002.

Let’s see a little more of what they have to offer before deciding who is core and who isn’t.

I am all for finding out what these guys may develop into. I realize in the big picture they are assets, but until they are dealt they are future Sabres. KA invested a lot of time in scouting, meeting and developing players not just to flip them.

There will come a day, soon from what I see, where there may not be room in the top 9 for Östlund, Rosen, Neuchev, Nadeau and Kisakov. If they are good enough to crack someone else’s lineup, they will have trade value and that can be a win-win-win situation.

[LGR4GM]

Just now, Taro T said:

No team is giving him 2nd line minutes?  The Sabres only 3 or so years ago were giving him 1st line minutes.  Never say never.

Also, he got 20 goals a year ago missing 10 games with a wrist injury and never really recovering from it until there were about 3 weeks left in the season.  While playing through the injury his shot was a shell of it's normal velocity and accuracy.  This year, he got 28 playing 3rd line minutes the significant majority of the season and 2PP for the majority of it as well; and that's with being benched down the stretch.  Had he not been benched, even with the less than ideal usage (from his perspective, not from the team's) he was only 2 goals short of that round number.

It's not crazy to expect that in 2 seasons, after he's adjusted to his new linemates that 30 goals is possible for him especially if he's getting 2W & 1PP usage.

I said no SERIOUS team. No team that wants to make the playoffs and compete is going to give Olofsson a full season of 2nd line minutes. 

Olofsson did not play 2nd pp minutes the majority of the season. Come on now, we have to use actual facts. Olofsson got demoted from pp1 for a handful of games during one of his season slumps. 

Had he not been benched... again you are back to "but if". Olofsson will get benched again because he is a streaky player that isn't good 5v5. His sh% was up to 17.4 this year from his career avg of 13.8. That means if he shoots the same number of shots next year he should get 22 goals. Again, unless he lands in a perfect ideal world where he gets force fed 2nd line minutes and force fed pp1, he isn't get there. He won't have enough shots and he doesn't generate enough 5v5 to compensate for his issues. Olofsson is a 22goal scorer, that's what he is. 

[Taro T]

1 hour ago, LGR4GM said:

I said no SERIOUS team. No team that wants to make the playoffs and compete is going to give Olofsson a full season of 2nd line minutes. 

Olofsson did not play 2nd pp minutes the majority of the season. Come on now, we have to use actual facts. Olofsson got demoted from pp1 for a handful of games during one of his season slumps. 

Had he not been benched... again you are back to "but if". Olofsson will get benched again because he is a streaky player that isn't good 5v5. His sh% was up to 17.4 this year from his career avg of 13.8. That means if he shoots the same number of shots next year he should get 22 goals. Again, unless he lands in a perfect ideal world where he gets force fed 2nd line minutes and force fed pp1, he isn't get there. He won't have enough shots and he doesn't generate enough 5v5 to compensate for his issues. Olofsson is a 22goal scorer, that's what he is. 

To the bolded, why yes, yes we do.

He got benched because they added Greenway.  Not because he's a streaky player.  Greenway gave the team something they had very little of and the team had many other goal scoring wingers besides Olofsson.  Had Greenway not been added, he would not have been benched (regardless of how desperately many here wanted him benched).

And for the majority of the year, when all were healthy the PP1 was Dahlin, Thompson, Tuch, Skinner, and Cozens.  They did go to having both snipers on the ice together some in the latter part of the season when they were in "try anything to get this working again" mode, but it was not the standard PP they used the majority of the year.

Would expect that Olofsson's S% moving forward would be closer to 15%+ than sub-14% as his S% was artificially low in Granatos 1st full season as he played most of it with a messed up wrist which Granato and Victor both admitted after the season was substantially messing with his shot.  Would also expect him to get more shots should he play a full season.  Both of which would make your estimate artificially low.

[Pimlach]

On 6/5/2023 at 8:51 AM, Carmel Corn said:

So is this a good thing (or not) vs. playing in Rochester???

I think it is good.   We have lots of prospects to evaluate.  Taking more time with Östlund helps us not make a hasty move.  

[LGR4GM]

3 hours ago, Taro T said:

To the bolded, why yes, yes we do.

He got benched because they added Greenway.  Not because he's a streaky player.  Greenway gave the team something they had very little of and the team had many other goal scoring wingers besides Olofsson.  Had Greenway not been added, he would not have been benched (regardless of how desperately many here wanted him benched).

And for the majority of the year, when all were healthy the PP1 was Dahlin, Thompson, Tuch, Skinner, and Cozens.  They did go to having both snipers on the ice together some in the latter part of the season when they were in "try anything to get this working again" mode, but it was not the standard PP they used the majority of the year.

Would expect that Olofsson's S% moving forward would be closer to 15%+ than sub-14% as his S% was artificially low in Granatos 1st full season as he played most of it with a messed up wrist which Granato and Victor both admitted after the season was substantially messing with his shot.  Would also expect him to get more shots should he play a full season.  Both of which would make your estimate artificially low.

You're entitled to your opinion but I think you're wrong. In fact I think olofsson peaked.