Improving the nhl draft lottery

[Weave]

13 minutes ago, Thorny said:

 

Proving my point 

Anomalies.

And guess what, the Sabres and Yotes were bad when they tried NOT tanking, too: you can’t legislate poor GMing out of the league. They were going to find their way to the bottom Tank or no Tank. 

That’s why they tanked in the first place! Symptom, not cause. They couldn’t COME UP WITH A BETTER PLAN

I mean, a draft lottery of sorts has been in place for long enough time that there are at least 3 iterations to the rules.  It may be rare over the last 30 years specifically because it is disincentivized. (Is that a word?)

[Thorner]

3 minutes ago, Weave said:

I mean, a draft lottery of sorts has been in place for long enough time that there are at least 3 iterations to the rules.  It may be rare over the last 30 years specifically because it is disincentivized. (Is that a word?)

I’m not even convinced a lottery DOES disincentivize tanking: you could easily get teams who originally wouldn’t think they have a chance at reaching the depths of their competition realizing the lottery stops that one team from locking it up (particularly b/c they draw twice)

Not to mention the truly cursed “why make it and lose in round 1, I’ll take a shot in the lottery” line of thinking 

[skaught]

I'd like to see some pre/post lottery tank stats. There's probably more teams tanking now because they all have a chance to land the 1OA.

The lottery was a fix to a non-existent problem. Unless the plan was to give Edmonton a bunch of 1OA picks.

[Porous Five Hole]

1 hour ago, Buffalonill said:

 You're saying to completely get rid of the lottery That's just a massive suicide on the league .

 There's a difference

Why is it NHL suicide but not NFL suicide?

[Curt]

9 hours ago, steveoath said:

As an event, I think the draft lottery is terrible. We don't have to look too far to see that it doesn't discourage tanking.

How could it be solved?

I am a big fan of of the so called "Golden Plan". As soon as you are mathematically eliminated from the playoffs you begin to collect points for a separate draft standing "table". Team that finishes with the most points on that table gets 1st OA and the rest of the 1-16 order is determined by the same method.

My 2nd favourite method would be using the same draft odds as we have. make a giant ball pool and fill it with balls that represent each teams odds for 1OA. Then all 16 general managers must dive into the pool to find a ball that has their team name stamped on it in tiny letters. The insert is determined by the order the GMs place their ball on some sort of plinth/podium.

It’s called the Gold Plan, named after the guy who invented the idea, whose last name is Gold.

 

[Curt]

3 hours ago, Buffalonill said:

Then teams would tank harder. 

The lottery is fine its them not doing in front of the world live thats the problem.

Them doing it behind closed doors is  Fishy

I don’t think it’s fishy.  It’s not as if no one sees the actual lottery process.  There are even media people in the room while it’s happening I believe.  It’s just that they don’t feel it makes for very compelling television.

[Brawndo]

An explanation of the Gold Plan 

 

https://www.thescore.com/nhl/news/2059085

 

Other options are to average the season point totals over 2-3 years for non playoff teams and base the final draft order on the team with the least amount of points picking first. 
 

The final option would be a tournament of non playoff teams where the teams that finish 32-26 play for the Top 8 Picks and 25-17 play for picks 9-16. 
This would give non playoff teams extra games for additional revenue with the extra games, make each series the best of three with the higher seed getting games one and two at home and the lower seed getting game three.

Yes I realize there is no way in hell the NHL does any of this. 
 

[MattPie]

5 hours ago, Brawndo said:

The final option would be a tournament of non playoff teams where the teams that finish 32-26 play for the Top 8 Picks and 25-17 play for picks 9-16. 

This would give non playoff teams extra games for additional revenue with the extra games, make each series the best of three with the higher seed getting games one and two at home and the lower seed getting game three.

Yes I realize there is no way in hell the NHL does any of this. 
 

I bet you'd see even more gymnastics towards the end of the season if you're sitting in 25th place, it'd be pretty enticing to the org lose a few games and possibly be the best team in the hunt for the big prize rather than playing for picks 9-16.

[pi2000]

Get rid of the lottery, hockey was fine for 100 years without it.     

If teams decide to tank and risk alienating their fanbase then so be it.

[Buffalonill]

25 minutes ago, pi2000 said:

Get rid of the lottery, hockey was fine for 100 years without it.     

If teams decide to tank and risk alienating their fanbase then so be it.

Thats a horrible idea not only does it hurt buffalo but other teams as well.

Did you miss how embarrassing buffalo was tanking for Connor McDavid no lottery ?

[pi2000]

4 minutes ago, Buffalonill said:

Thats a horrible idea not only does it hurt buffalo but other teams as well.

Did you miss how embarrassing buffalo was tanking for Connor McDavid no lottery ?

Edm won the McDavid lottery, Buffalo dropped from 1st to 2nd.

Teams are tanking with the lottery in place, in fact I'd argue it encourages tanking as the farther you fall the better your chances become.

Bottoming out to rebuild is a common strategy exercised by every team in every sport.    If you decide to throwaway a season and risk alienating your fanbase, I'm fine with that.

I strongly disagree with the idea that tanking is somehow unethical and needs to be prevented. 

[mjd1001]

The lottery hasn't really eliminating 'tanking' in any of its recent forms.  Maybe it has cut down on a team just going all out, trying to be the worst team ever?  Not sure.   I DO like the current idea where you can only move up 10 spots. 

[LabattBlue]

My stance on this never changes. Dump the lottery and worst team picks first. 

[Alaska John]

On 5/13/2023 at 4:48 AM, steveoath said:

As an event, I think the draft lottery is terrible. We don't have to look too far to see that it doesn't discourage tanking.

How could it be solved?

I am a big fan of of the so called "Golden Plan". As soon as you are mathematically eliminated from the playoffs you begin to collect points for a separate draft standing "table". Team that finishes with the most points on that table gets 1st OA and the rest of the 1-16 order is determined by the same method.

My 2nd favourite method would be using the same draft odds as we have. make a giant ball pool and fill it with balls that represent each teams odds for 1OA. Then all 16 general managers must dive into the pool to find a ball that has their team name stamped on it in tiny letters. The insert is determined by the order the GMs place their ball on some sort of plinth/podium.

I love that second suggestion, but why not make it really interesting and put the ball pool in the middle of an ice rink and make the GMs get to the pool, find their ball, and get it to a hockey goal?  And the GMs have to be in socks, no skates or shoes.  Watching some of these guys slide around for 100 feet would be a ratings bonanza.

[Scottysabres]

You want to improve the draft lottery? Then get rid of it imho. It's a joke, again, imho.

[msw2112]

On 5/13/2023 at 10:08 AM, pastajoe said:

They need good teams to draw even in traditional hockey markets. Look at how attendance went down in Buffalo. And the fastest way to improve is with a star player. Of course they then have to surround him with the right teammates.

I met some friends from Wisconsin in Buffalo this fall for the Bills-Packers game.  We also went to the Sabres-Blackhawks game the night before.  My friends drove in and spent some time in Chicago on their way.  They attended a Blackhawks home game a couple nights before the Sabres game.  They said that the United Center was NOT sold out, and had a smaller crowd that the one in Buffalo.

I pesonally lived in Chicago for years and they had trouble putting people in the seats pre-Patrick Kane/Jonathan Toews, when the Hawks were terrible.  That was during the Michael Jordan era, so the Bulls were great and the Blackhawks were an afterthought.  Kane/Toews changed things, as the team became a juggernaut and won some Cups (and the Bulls went to crap).  Now, with Bedard coming in, the hope is to jumpstart things again.  So, yes, it does benefit the league to have stars in big markets.  That said, I don't know that the lottery is rigged.  It sure seems like it some years, but I'm not sure that a high-profile, public facing entertainment organization like the NHL would operate fraudulently.

[SwampD]

What about a lottery for the 17th pick? Only the bottom three teams are in it. Tanking to try and get the number 1 pick, and ending up with the 17th, would discourage tanking way more then ending up with the 4th.

[DarthEbriate]

Option 1: If you must retain the lottery, make it a true lottery. All non-playoff teams get equal odds. The downside is the lack of 1st round picks traded and you'll always have the possibility of whining about "Bettman's favorite" or "big market" winning the lottery...  which happened this year anyway.

Option 2: Do away with the lottery entirely. Worst team picks first. It takes a minimum of 2 seasons to break a competitive team down to the studs to get to Bedard/McDavid level, so if you want to go for it, go for it. It might be 4 years before you're even competitive again (McDavid/Draisaitl), and it may be 10 or more (Sabres). If you're an owner, that's a long time. If you're a GM, you probably won't be around then anyway.

[shrader]

On 5/22/2023 at 10:20 AM, SwampD said:

What about a lottery for the 17th pick? Only the bottom three teams are in it. Tanking to try and get the number 1 pick, and ending up with the 17th, would discourage tanking way more then ending up with the 4th.

The problem is that plenty of times you have that team that just plain sucks without trying to. 

[SwampD]

1 minute ago, shrader said:

The problem is that plenty of times you have that team that just plain sucks without trying to. 

Yes but, life's a bitch, sometimes. Don't suck so bad and you won't have to worry about it.

[Randall Flagg]

The best draft lottery improvement in 12 years is coming next spring

The Buffalo sabres will be absent:)

[LabattBlue]

On 5/13/2023 at 11:23 PM, pi2000 said:

Get rid of the lottery, hockey was fine for 100 years without it.     

If teams decide to tank and risk alienating their fanbase then so be it.

Yes Yes Yes!!!!