Comparing the #1s: where do Power and Dahlin fit against other 1st overall picks?

[dudacek]

The Athletic did a piece where they asked scouts to rank  Bedard against the past 9 #1 choices as they were regarded at the time of their draft.

https://theathletic.com/4349812/2023/05/04/connor-bedard-connor-mcdavid-nhl-draft/

I found the results a little surprising; not that McDavid and Bedard are 1-2, but that Austin Mathews was thought of nearly as highly Bedard at the time of his draft. I remember Mathews as closer to Eichel Stamkos Tavares than the Ovechkin level where my hype meter has Bedard.

Also interesting was Jack Hughes being a clear-cut #4. I remember doubts about his size and felt Dahlin was more hyped.

But the biggest surprise to me was that the scouts ranked Dahlin/Power as almost a pick-'em.

Remember, this is "at the time of their draft".

Around here, Dahlin was touted as complete and the best defence prospect since Potvin, while Power was considered not a surefire #1 and the type of player who would have gone 3rd or even 5th in other years.

"Three voters preferred Dahlin, two preferred Power, and they were always one spot apart in each voter’s overall list."

Complete rankings:

• McDavid
• Bedard
• Matthews
• Hughes
• Dahlin
• Power
• Lafreniere
• Hischier
• Ekblad
• Slavkovsky

Edited May 5, 2023 by dudacek

[PerreaultForever]

As I remember it all of those players were the clear consensus #1 picks at the time of their drafts with the exception of Slavkovsky. i think there was some argument there over who was the true #1 . Some people also liked Beniers over Power but Power was generally considered #1.   Bedard is certainly the most golden boy since McDavid. 

In hindsight, Lafreniere has certainly not lived up to #1 status (and I remember some questioned him at the time), too soon to say on Slavkosky and Ekblad is quietly underrated imo. 

 

[GASabresIUFAN]

This article made me think about the 2019 draft.  If we re-drafted today, who are 2-10 after Hughes? 

I'd start with Seider (2nd), Boldy (3rd), Zegras (4th), Cozens (5th), Byram (6th), Caufield (7th), Maccelli (8th), Dach (9th) and Kakko (10th).  Seider is 2nd because he is showing Dahlin-type puck movement skills at 22.  Why is Boldy 3rd?  He is scoring at a similar pace as Caufield, but adds significantly more assists.  He also has a higher pts/gp than Zegras.  

Why Maccelli so high?  Anyone who can put up 49 pts in 64 games as a rookie in AZ and not be a +/- negative is doing something right.

Edited May 5, 2023 by GASabresIUFAN

[dudacek]

1 hour ago, PerreaultForever said:

As I remember it all of those players were the clear consensus #1 picks at the time of their drafts with the exception of Slavkovsky. i think there was some argument there over who was the true #1 . Some people also liked Beniers over Power but Power was generally considered #1.   Bedard is certainly the most golden boy since McDavid. 

In hindsight, Lafreniere has certainly not lived up to #1 status (and I remember some questioned him at the time), too soon to say on Slavkosky and Ekblad is quietly underrated imo. 

 

I remember Lafreniere hyped as a clear #1 and much more highly regarded than Power.

[Taro T]

11 hours ago, dudacek said:

The Athletic did a piece where they asked scouts to rank  Bedard against the past 9 #1 choices as they were regarded at the time of their draft.

https://theathletic.com/4349812/2023/05/04/connor-bedard-connor-mcdavid-nhl-draft/

I found the results a little surprising; not that McDavid and Bedard are 1-2, but that Austin Mathews was thought of nearly as highly Bedard at the time of his draft. I remember Mathews as closer to Eichel Stamkos Tavares than the Ovechkin level where my hype meter has Bedard.

Also interesting was Jack Hughes being a clear-cut #4. I remember doubts about his size and felt Dahlin was more hyped.

But the biggest surprise to me was that the scouts ranked Dahlin/Power as almost a pick-'em.

Remember, this is "at the time of their draft".

Around here, Dahlin was touted as complete and the best defence prospect since Potvin, while Power was considered not a surefire #1 and the type of player who would have gone 3rd or even 5th in other years.

"Three voters preferred Dahlin, two preferred Power, and they were always one spot apart in each voter’s overall list."

Complete rankings:

• McDavid
• Bedard
• Matthews
• Hughes
• Dahlin
• Power
• Lafreniere
• Hischier
• Ekblad
• Slavkovsky

Yeah.  Would put Dahlin at 3, just a smidge ahead of Matthews.  Matthews was in the Eichel / MacKinnon tier; not the McDavid / Crosby tier.  (Of course, at the time of their drafts, Eichel and MacKinnon were being considered borderline "generational."  What a strange label as it gets brought up seemingly at least once every 5 years.)  And Lafreniere seemed to have more hype than Power.  But neither of those 2 were being viewed as "all that" IMHO.

But the guy getting compared to Potvin has to be ranked higher on the hype machine than Hughes.  Again, IMHO. 

Other than those 2 tweaks would agree with the Athletic's list.

[French Collection]

23 minutes ago, Taro T said:

Yeah.  Would put Dahlin at 3, just a smidge ahead of Matthews.  Matthews was in the Eichel / MacKinnon tier; not the McDavid / Crosby tier.  (Of course, at the time of their drafts, Eichel and MacKinnon were being considered borderline "generational."  What a strange label as it gets brought up seemingly at least once every 5 years.)  And Lafreniere seemed to have more hype than Power.  But neither of those 2 were being viewed as "all that" IMHO.

But the guy getting compared to Potvin has to be ranked higher on the hype machine than Hughes.  Again, IMHO. 

Other than those 2 tweaks would agree with the Athletic's list.

Without looking at past draft list articles it is hard to not look at this without some bias.

McJesus and Bedard have had the most hype by far.

I think Matthews and Dahlin are interchangeable.

Hughes, Power and Lafreniere are in the next tier.

Hischier, Eklblad and Slafkovsky were not unanimous #1 by any means.

[Randall Flagg]

What the heck happened to Lafreniere? I remember getting the impression that he was at or nearly in the Stamkos/Tavares tier of prospect. Dude looks bad every time I watch him and his production is barely there

[pi2000]

It's too early to rank them.   Both players, imo, have some runway to improve... especially Power.     Ask again in 5 years.

[dudacek]

1 minute ago, pi2000 said:

It's too early to rank them.   Both players, imo, have some runway to improve... especially Power.     Ask again in 5 years.

This ranking compares each player when they were 18, full stop.
Improvement, or lack thereof, isn’t part of it.

[French Collection]

1 minute ago, Randall Flagg said:

What the heck happened to Lafreniere? I remember getting the impression that he was at or nearly in the Stamkos/Tavares tier of prospect. Dude looks bad every time I watch him and his production is barely there

I’m glad the Sabres picked first in the Dahlin and Power drafts and not that one.

Chytil and Kakko are making that line work. I think he’s needing a change of scenery and a wake up call that he’s not that good and will have to work hard to find a role.

[PerreaultForever]

9 minutes ago, French Collection said:

I’m glad the Sabres picked first in the Dahlin and Power drafts and not that one.

Chytil and Kakko are making that line work. I think he’s needing a change of scenery and a wake up call that he’s not that good and will have to work hard to find a role.

A good question would be could that change of scenery work if it was the Sabres?  He does play with a fair bit of grit. If the scoring/#1 overall expectations were removed would he be the type of 3rd line guy we could use? 

Wouldn't pay a premium, but if the Rangers are looking to move on from him I'd call and talk.