What role does Krebs fit into next season?

[...]

2 minutes ago, Thorny said:

But what we do next season doesn’t have retroactive bearing on whether we could have made it, this season. Unless you mean like, “oh if all we were going to amount to is 95 points, we should have sold off a little more to get the job done last year.”? I suppose I understand that, I mean I’m disappointed we didn’t make it this season, too. But if we only amount to 95 points the idea we could have easily shifted to change our fortunes this season, with no regards to butterfly effect doesn’t really jive to me. I think personally I’d just see this season as the 16 point jump that facilitated a 4 point, makes me jumping distance for next season 

A 20 point increase over two years still ain't worth it when we could have spent some money last summer to shore up the D and/or goal-tending - if the goal is to just make the playoffs and end the drought.

You're right to point out the butterfly effect that would create and I completely agree. It's just that I don't see 95 points next season (or a 20 point increase over two) as a team serious about being a perennial Cup contender and if that low mark is what we get we may as well have just spent the money and ended the drought for a season or two.

Otherwise telling us about "building a Cup contender" becomes nothing more than a bunch of words swept into the winds of history like everything the Sabres organization has said after Darcy's "pain" comments. Those were the last serious comments from the Sabres organization until we exceed 100 points and make the playoffs decisively after which the organization will have restored some of its gravitas in my view.

Fortunately, I don't see this team as being content with 95 points next season so this is ultimately a moot point as far as I'm concerned.

[Thorner]

51 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

Yes, that will be a disappointment because it probably means that the defense and goaltending only improved marginally if at all. 

I think I need a reboot, my inner programming isn’t really syncing with any of the formulas on this website anymore 

Edited April 20, 2023 by Thorny

[Thorner]

35 minutes ago, ... said:

A 20 point increase over two years still ain't worth it when we could have spent some money last summer to shore up the D and/or goal-tending - if the goal is to just make the playoffs and end the drought.

You're right to point out the butterfly effect that would create and I completely agree. It's just that I don't see 95 points next season (or a 20 point increase over two) as a team serious about being a perennial Cup contender and if that low mark is what we get we may as well have just spent the money and ended the drought for a season or two.

Otherwise telling us about "building a Cup contender" becomes nothing more than a bunch of words swept into the winds of history like everything the Sabres organization has said after Darcy's "pain" comments. Those were the last serious comments from the Sabres organization until we exceed 100 points and make the playoffs decisively after which the organization will have restored some of its gravitas in my view.

Fortunately, I don't see this team as being content with 95 points next season so this is ultimately a moot point as far as I'm concerned.

It’s interesting -  in my mind there’s sort of 2 schools of thought here that both kinda have an internal logical consistency and aren’t necessarily mutually exclusive: the bold above more less frames it. “May as well have just spent the money and ended the drought for a season or two.” Under one school of thought, relative to the league in general, I think this makes sense. On paper it’s not a difficult mathematical proposition - when half the teams make it. (Relative to the league), proclaiming “just make it already” actually does seem like a fair ask. In a vacuum, candidly id actually say that was my preferred course of action for this team, this year. I actually personally think this is part of the framing and context for Wawrow’s question yesterday. Isn’t finishing 20th a failure, relative to the league? There’s an argument. 

But perhaps the more salient factor, and probably the factor more at play, is relativity to the Sabres. Perhaps best summed up by “easier said than done.” Odds are subservient to actual results. The Sabres missing the playoffs for 12 years is a real thing, a real tangible thing that represents such a statistical anomaly so as to make “randomness” as the potential answer null and void. The Sabres, for one reason or another, in fact for a multitude, ARE what their 0/12 record says they are: they, *regardless of the league* have had a thoroughly documented issue converting on those “half the teams make it” odds. When we can safely rule out that it’s by chance, any sort of true trend bucker like *actually making the playoffs* is fundamental cause for celebration, imo. It *means* something in and of itself simply because it happened in a sea of not making it. Relativity factors in again: MAKING it is also a bigger deal for Buffalo than other teams. Making it means so much more than off-season conversation that we “should be” a 110 point team. 

Just make it. That’s the pudding 

Edited April 20, 2023 by Thorny

[Pimlach]

5 hours ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

Post press conference 2023/24 Buffalo Sabres

Skinner TNT Tuch

JJP Cozens Quinn

Savoie Mitts Greenway

Rousek Krebs KO (Jost or Z)

Dahlin Samuelsson

Power ?????

Jokiharju Lyubuskin (Stillman)

Levi UPL (Comrie to Roch)

After the press conferences, I’m expecting one notable acquisition and that is a single D.  This team won’t be taking the next step next season under this plan unless Levi is spectacular. 

Bold prediction.   I sure hope your wrong about the next step.  

Assuming the moves you outline are true, if everyone just stays reasonably healthy, and if growth in the core and in the youth continues, and if Levi plays  at the level we saw at the end of the season, and if UPL is a decent backup, then I think we finish with 100+ points and make the playoffs.  

Most of the and if's are still there even if make a few more trades as.  

[...]

42 minutes ago, Thorny said:

It’s interesting -  in my mind there’s sort of 2 schools of thought here that both kinda have an internal logical consistency and aren’t necessarily mutually exclusive: the bold above more less frames it. “May as well have just spent the money and ended the drought for a season or two.” Under one school of thought, relative to the league in general, I think this makes sense. On paper it’s not a difficult mathematical proposition - when half the teams make it. (Relative to the league), proclaiming “just make it already” actually does seem like a fair ask. In a vacuum, candidly id actually say that was my preferred course of action for this team, this year. I actually personally think this is part of the framing and context for Wawrow’s question yesterday. Isn’t finishing 20th a failure, relative to the league? There’s an argument. 

But perhaps the more salient factor, and probably the factor more at play, is relativity to the Sabres. Perhaps best summed up by “easier said than done.” Odds are subservient to actual results. The Sabres missing the playoffs for 12 years is a real thing, a real tangible thing that represents such a statistical anomaly so as to make “randomness” as the potential answer null and void. The Sabres, for one reason or another, in fact for a multitude, ARE what their 0/12 record says they are: they, *regardless of the league* have had a thoroughly documented issue converting on those “half the teams make it” odds. When we can safely rule out that it’s by chance, any sort of true trend bucker like *actually making the playoffs* is fundamental cause for celebration, imo. It *means* something in and of itself simply because it happened in a sea of not making it. Relativity factors in again: MAKING it is also a bigger deal for Buffalo than other teams. Making it means so much more than off-season conversation that we “should be” a 110 point team. 

Just make it. That’s the pudding 

I don't think the issue is what we're seeing or experiencing as fans, it's the attempt by the organization to frame reality in a certain way that has us discussing this.

In the end, the fans would be happy with a playoff berth. However, since the teams has been unable to provide that, the situation is indeed exactly as you put it above, they have a closet full of excuses why that hasn't happened and they're not willing to commit to a goal for next season, then they have split reality into two concurrent streams: what the fans experience as reality and what the Sabres define as reality.

Edited April 20, 2023 by ...

[DarthEbriate]

3 hours ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

The next step isn't slipping into the playoffs with 95 points.  We are there already.  The next step is being a solid playoff team.  That means competing with the TB and Torontos of the world.  It means having a reasonable chance of winning a playoff series or two.  Unless the D he acquires is significantly better than Jokiharju, you will again be asking a lot of your goaltenders.  Right now we were the 3rd highest-scoring team in the NHL and only high-scoring team in the league not to make the playoffs.  We gave up nearly 300 goals this season.  That number has to decrease by at least 30 goals next season for us to be up there with Toronto and TB.  Adding 1 quality defender won't be enough to accomplish that.  The advanced stats say UPL regressed this past season.  That means that if he and Levi are the goalies next season Levi is going to have to be excellent or better and start 50 games if we are to achieve a top 3 Atlantic finish.

I think a decrease of 30 GA is realistic.

If the Sabres get average goaltending and nothing else (sloppy team defense, same # of shots allowed as this season, they shave 19 goals off.) Even with his DET game, Levi is already above league average. From what I've seen, his floor is .910 with consistent quality starts as well an ability to occasionally steal wins (he had 2-3 deflected goals that dragged his #s down, but otherwise he was extremely solid). The backup/1B then needs to be at .898 or better (for the record, UPL exceeded that in his 21 pre-All-Star Game starts -- and yes I would look into a veteran replacement, just saying that even UPL has shown average for 2+ months).

But what I really count on is the growth of a young team: they'll be better than 32nd in faceoffs and winning post-FO battles (fewer instant shots against in their D zone and on PKs), they'll have buy-in from their young forwards to control the zone before going for the breakaway, they'll get better by having Greenway's reach to negate 1 shot per game (once he got back from his injury he broke up several passes/dangerous shots that a VO simply wouldn't have gotten to). They'll give up fewer than 33 shots/game next season by growing up a bit collectively.

Add an experienced #4 defender who kills penalties and they'll be even a touch better (more than a touch if that move clears Bryson's 59 games played to ROC).

My concern for the casual fan is how much less "fun" they are offensively because the forwards aren't looking for a breakaway before they've even gained control of a loose puck in their own zone. Can they reduce 25-40 GA and only sacrifice 10-15 fewer GF?

[FrenchConnection44]

Unsure where he will fit but Krebs is a guy I want on my team. He has to get stronger and more physical - as well as 90% of the team - but his scrappiness and his toughness is something this team needs. He's one of those guys that can be a thorn in the oppositions side. 

I want him there. And I think he can make it. It's a tough call because of the talent entering with an NHL future. But we gotta find a space for him. 

He has a bit of Brad Marchand in him (not the same player; but the same kind of pesky nature). If he can get to 200 lbs in a year or so he can be a really tough fourth line center or forward. 

He may be someone we need to trade but I hope there is space for him. 

[Doohicksie]

Just now, FrenchConnection44 said:

but his scrappiness and his toughness is something this team needs.

He's pretty much the only guy besides perhaps Skinner that will take a cheap shot and come back smiling and chirping.