Layout Your Offseason Plan

[thewookie1]

I’m happy to say I’ve got a few NSH fans onboard with

Saros & 24

Östlund, 13, our 2024 1st with Top 5 protection and Polotov

Its steep but retains a 1st this year and our top 2 prospects

[Thorner]

16 hours ago, dudacek said:

 

So, not really?

The idea that Hellebuyck is a “bad” fit needs to die a slow death. It’s just a misunderstanding of what the numbers are saying. I’m not saying one has to feel he’s worth a first, not at all, but he’s not a “bad fit”. 

16 hours ago, thewookie1 said:

Well I don't mind Saros depending on the trade proposal.

 

You drastically undervalue goalies. 

“Don’t mind” Saros. Good grief 

[Brawndo]

Couple things.

Lebrun is reporting that the Devils are interested in a sign and trade with Hellebuyck (Good Luck Eastern Conference), if this happens Chad DeDomincis is wondering if Vanacsk becomes available. 
 

Although Gibson is not one of my top choices at all, Chad brought up another interesting point, Gibson starts very strong and fades as the season goes on, would splitting the net in a 1A/1B scenario with Levi prevent him from tiring out and keep his numbers up all season.

 

6 hours ago, nfreeman said:

Imma flip it around on you sir:  would you trade #13, Savoie, Kulich, Quinn, JJP, Levi, Östlund or Rosen for Helle, who has 1 year left under contract and, it appears, will require a huge contract in order to stay longer than that?

As I've said previously, I would not, although my answer on #13, Ostlun and Rosen would change if Helle had 2 years left.

Yes I would give up the non crossed out options 

[Marvin]

1 hour ago, thewookie1 said:

I’m happy to say I’ve got a few NSH fans onboard with

Saros & 24

Östlund, 13, our 2024 1st with Top 5 protection and Polotov

Its steep but retains a 1st this year and our top 2 prospects

That offer for Saros looks about right.  You might need to send UPL too.

[Porous Five Hole]

1 hour ago, thewookie1 said:

I’m happy to say I’ve got a few NSH fans onboard with

Saros & 24

Östlund, 13, our 2024 1st with Top 5 protection and Polotov

Its steep but retains a 1st this year and our top 2 prospects

Three first round (or equivalent of first round) assets is a pass for me. 

What is the most recent comp of a top tier goalie who doesn’t have trade protection being traded for the equivalent of three firsts? Genuinely asking…I’m just trying to understand who set the market price. 

[Night Train]

D is far more important. I would like another G but no rentals for tons of compensation. JMO. 

[thewookie1]

1 hour ago, Thorny said:

The idea that Hellebuyck is a “bad” fit needs to die a slow death. It’s just a misunderstanding of what the numbers are saying. I’m not saying one has to feel he’s worth a first, not at all, but he’s not a “bad fit”. 

You drastically undervalue goalies. 

“Don’t mind” Saros. Good grief 

I think he’s a great goalie as is Hellebuyck but I don’t see Hellebuyck as a fit due to his contract demands. I see goalies as valuable assets but difficult to acquire via trade.

26 minutes ago, Marvin said:

That offer for Saros looks about right.  You might need to send UPL too.

Well I’d be willing too in place of Polotov

[dudacek]

3 hours ago, Porous Five Hole said:

Three first round (or equivalent of first round) assets is a pass for me. 

What is the most recent comp of a top tier goalie who doesn’t have trade protection being traded for the equivalent of three firsts? Genuinely asking…I’m just trying to understand who set the market price. 

It’s never happened in the cap era.

I did the research and posted it on here a while back and I’m too lazy to look it up again.

Best return for a goalie in the last 20 years is pick 9 in 2013 for Corey Schneider.

Darcy Kuemper was traded for Conner Timmins and a late 1st a couple years back in the best return recently, so essentially a little more than Ryan Johnson and pick 39.

Last time a front-line goalie got traded was Luongo in 2014. It was for Markstrom and Matthias, which, at the time, was like UPL and Greenway. Before that, Ryan Miller netted Carrier, Stewart, a late 1st, Halak and a 3rd. It’s less than it sounds when you realize Halak was a cap dump and the Sabres also gave up captain Steve Ott in the deal.

The short answer is goalies NEVER get traded for the kind of haul Chewie is offering for Saros. Most of the time they top out at the equivalent of a mid to late 1st and a mid second.

The caveat is that goalies like Saros almost never get traded, so there’s not a ton of comparables.

Edited June 23, 2023 by dudacek

[Buffalonill]

11 hours ago, Brawndo said:

Couple things.

Lebrun is reporting that the Devils are interested in a sign and trade with Hellebuyck (Good Luck Eastern Conference), if this happens Chad DeDomincis is wondering if Vanacsk becomes available. 
 

Although Gibson is not one of my top choices at all, Chad brought up another interesting point, Gibson starts very strong and fades as the season goes on, would splitting the net in a 1A/1B scenario with Levi prevent him from tiring out and keep his numbers up all season.

 

Yes I would give up the non crossed out options 

Hasn't this guy said no to buffalo like 3 times already. 

 

[Brawndo]

17 minutes ago, Buffalonill said:

Hasn't this guy said no to buffalo like 3 times already. 

 

Once last summer 

[Buffalonill]

2 minutes ago, Brawndo said:

Once last summer 

If I had no ties in buffalo I would stay in California also lol 

Edited June 23, 2023 by Buffalonill

[Brawndo]

4 minutes ago, Buffalonill said:

If I had no ties in buffalo I would stay in California also lol 

He refused a trade to any Eastern Conference Team last offseason 

[Taro T]

3 hours ago, Brawndo said:

He refused a trade to any Eastern Conference Team last offseason 

TIL.  Danke.

[Eleven]

6 hours ago, Brawndo said:

He refused a trade to any Eastern Conference Team last offseason 

That was then...

[GASabresIUFAN]

Didn't the great TM trade a 1st for Lehner and a cap dump?  Saros has to be worth more than that.

[dudacek]

5 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

Didn't the great TM trade a 1st for Lehner and a cap dump?  Saros has to be worth more than that.

Pick 21.

Martin Jones went for one of Boston”s 13-14-15 pick run in 2015.

And there was one more who is slipping my mind who went for a pick somewhere in that range around that time.

I think those trades might be part of the reason why no one has given up that much for a goalie since.

Edited June 23, 2023 by dudacek

[nfreeman]

11 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

Didn't the great TM trade a 1st for Lehner and a cap dump?  Saros has to be worth more than that.

How is any of TM's moves relevant?  Do you think TM's moves set the market, and other GMs are using his moves as guidelines for appropriate value?

[RochesterExpat]

I was going to post this in the "biggest stride" thread but thought it too off-topic. @mjd1001, @kas23 and @North Buffalo all picked (well NB commented on mjd's statement but is getting tagged regardless). Anyway, this is what I was going to say:

I think we've learned that Mitts can't carry a line and needs supporting talent surrounding him. I picked Power for the breakout because I expect him to have a D compliment that will open the door for him to take the next step. I'd like to see Mitts have a breakout as well, but I'm struggling to see how with the lines for next season. If he has the talent to compliment his own, he can play up to their level as he demonstrated at the end of the season when he was bumped to the first line due to injuries. If he's put on the line with a one-dimensional player like VO again, I see him having issues.

That's not a knock against Mitts. If anything, it's a knock against the Org if they don't give him enough support next season to fully utilize him. Frankly, right now, I don't know who that support will be. I realize this is going off-topic, but it's got me thinking now.

We have the following forwards under contract: 

Skinner - Thompson - Tuch
Quinn - Cozens - JJP
??? - Mitts - ???
Z - Krebs - KO - Greenway

Jost hasn't been given a QO and, while I believe GMKA when he says they've been negotiating, he still isn't signed. VO is likely to be traded per "insiders" and he was a healthy scratch at the end of the season. If he's on the third line with Mitts again at the start of the season, we're basically screwed so this whole thought exercise is moot.

In Rochester, we have Rousek, Kulich, Rosen, and Weissbach who are the most likely to hit the roster out of camp. Kulich is a more talented VO right now and needs time in the AHL to develop his defensive game (I recognize this is just my opinion) and Rosen needs more time in the gym before he should see the big time. Rousek is probably talented enough to give a look at a Top 9 role in the NHL as is Weissbach. Weissbach plays a bit more of a physical game despite his stature. They're both lefties as is Mitts (and Kulich and Rosen and Greenway...). Savoie is a righty.

So maybe the plan is for Savoie to start the season and get his 10-game look? In which case, you need to put a physical compliment with him (Greenway?) because, while I acknowledge Mitts was more of a 'pest' last season, Mitts is not a physical player. Savoie got pushed around in the AHL playoffs last season and he's the similar type of finesse playmaker that Mitts is. I don't know if that makes sense putting them together. Especially in the context of putting Savoie on the wing where he's going to get pushed off the puck along the boards.

Kulich has the finishing ability (no doubting that) but would his defensive play be a liability with Mitts? Would it be a repeat of VO and Mitts?

Greenway plays dump-and-chase hockey and is hesitant to shoot the puck (seriously, look at his shots-per-60). Can Granato change that? Currently it doesn't seem like the kind of player who you want sitting with Kulich/Mitts or Savoie/Mitts... or just Mitts.  

Rousek is a relatively complete player as is Weissbach. Do you just throw caution to the wind and try two untested AHLers with Mitts and hope they have the talent to play at the NHL level on a triple-lefty line? 

 The other option is splitting up Quinn - Cozens - JJP and moving one of Quinn or JJP to play with Mitts. Maybe they put Savoie in for JJP? Don't know.

 Weird that we have 12 forwards under contract for next season, but I have no clue what our third line is going to look like.

Ideas people?

[kas23]

I agree with you. Mitts played most of the year with a guy who would end up being benched and a waiver wire pick up. Tage would’ve had issues with them as well. We’ve seen what Mitts can do with better line mates. I’m not sure JJP and Quinn will be glued to Cozens again and maybe one of them will be paired with Mitts and Greenway. I’m also not convinced placing AHL call-ups (Rousek or Kulich) with Mitts will prove to be better than what he had last year. They need more time, but maybe Rousek is ready (albeit having a lower ceiling than Kulich). 

[Thorner]

Add Lance to the growing list of those expecting a run back in net. 

There just aren’t any good options! 4 years now! Who’d have thought. Ah well, what can you do. 

[Buffalonill]

3 minutes ago, Thorny said:

Add Lance to the growing list of those expecting a run back in net. 

There just aren’t any good options! 4 years now! Who’d have thought. Ah well, what can you do. 

Another year of  Musical Goalies what could go wrong

[Thorner]

8 minutes ago, Buffalonill said:

Another year of  Musical Goalies what could go wrong

There just haven’t been any reasonable ways to upgrade the output from the goaltending position in any of the last 3 offseasons including this one. No team has succeeded in doing this. It’s why I’ve personally begun to scratch these years off the “failed to make the playoffs” list. Imo they don’t count towards the drought, because they were loaded scenarios with no chance of success.

Ymmv but for me, the clock begins when teams smarten up and agree to take the players we DON’T mind giving up, in return for their good players.

Edited June 23, 2023 by Thorny

[Taro T]

6 minutes ago, Buffalonill said:

Another year of  Musical Goalies what could go wrong

Musical goalies?  🤨

What, now Subban is in the mix? 😉

[Zamboni]

1 minute ago, Taro T said:

Musical goalies?  🤨

What, now Subban is in the mix? 😉

Don’t bet on it.

[Thorner]

Here’s a great, great in depth article on defensive handedness in the NHL. The most definitive research I’ve seen, and compelling evidence against the idea that “handedness doesn’t matter.”

https://www.expectedbuffalo.com/do-the-buffalo-sabres-care-about-defensive-handedness-should-they-and-to-what-extent/

“Either way, the findings from last season certainly do a good job of putting the approach in context. The idea that the Sabres don’t care about handedness at all is wrong, but the extent to which they care is probably a moving target.”

Highly recommend reading the whole thing. The Sabres relative to the league played D men on their off hand more than any other team but 1. The article argues that’s out of necessity - primarily it’s because of Dahlin our numbers were that high, and the number say Dahlin did *better* on his proper hand. 

Now, this isn’t to say players can’t and don’t succeed on their offhand, but it’s harder to do, it’s not a non factor, the amount the Sabres have been doing it IS uncommon and Adams is aware it’s harder to do and matters, as evidenced by the article, because he didn’t have his young learning players on the off hand when he could avoid it, and he had Dahlin on the left, when he could. 

Further information should be available when we see what hand any new D man addition goes by

So: the Sabres have certainly shown a greater willingness than others to do it, but it’s absolutely not a “non factor” so I feel somewhat vindicated in talking about this when others have said its a non factor 

Edited June 23, 2023 by Thorny