Layout Your Offseason Plan

[Thorner]

11 hours ago, thewookie1 said:

Well I don’t feel Myers would fix or improve our back end. To me Myers is more of a cap dump with use, akin to Legwand, and not an upgrade.

 

As Callaway said, are you Tim Murray in disguise or something? 
 

That equivalence doesn’t work, unless you’re a goalie away from the Cup, you don’t trade your top goalie prospect and either your top or 2nd prospect for a goalie. Not to mention the contract demands will be almost assuredly a major issue. If Bob wins this year, he’ll save his contract’s life but otherwise he’s been greatly overpaid for spotty play in Florida. 
 

Plus one of the posters showed an analysis of Hellebuyck and found he might not be great with our system of play. And we aren’t turning into WPG play style.

 

 

Why couldn’t we be a cup contending team adding a top 3 goalie in the world to a top 3 offense in the world?

i would trade JJ Peterka for a singular deep playoff run 

time is valuable, man. By far, by far, the asset we undersell the most on this board. 

Edited May 25, 2023 by Thorny

[thewookie1]

2 minutes ago, Thorny said:

Why couldn’t we be a cup contending team adding a top 3 goalie in the world to a top 3 offense in the world?

We have zero assurance that Hellebuyck would be a Top 3 goalie in Buffalo due to some underlying analytics and Comrie’s difference in numbers lending credence to that. 
 

Additionally I personally don’t believe in paying goalies long and high contracts due to their unpredictable nature. Effectively, I have zero interest in trading Savoie/Kulich and Levi for a goalie who will want nigh Bob money

[Thorner]

13 minutes ago, thewookie1 said:

We have zero assurance that Hellebuyck would be a Top 3 goalie in Buffalo due to some underlying analytics and Comrie’s difference in numbers lending credence to that. 
 

Additionally I personally don’t believe in paying goalies long and high contracts due to their unpredictable nature. Effectively, I have zero interest in trading Savoie/Kulich and Levi for a goalie who will want nigh Bob money

Seriously, comparing Comrie and Hellebuyck? 
 

I can never wrap my mind around goaltending stuff. It’s like people have no care for the idea of *some* improvement. We saw it literally all year in the GDTs: “well, those were tough shots, what could UPL even have done? His D is bad!”

*goalies are allowed to provide positive value.*. They can even do so when portions of a team aren’t up to snuff! It’s like, the idea of Ullmark gets shot down because “he’s not the guy in Boston he was in Buffalo cause of their team.” SO WHAT? Have you *seen* his statistics *in buffalo*? Way better than any goalie to play for us, last season. Even HASEK I’ve seen lumped into this convo. “Even Hasek wouldn’t so and so behind this D”

ya, he would. Hellebuyck would, too. He’s very good. We need *2* good goalies. The fact we expect Peterka to provide good value down the line isn’t close to enough to make me rule out the astronomical comparative amount Hellebuyck would benefit us this coming year instead of the value Peterka would provide. It needs to at least be a consideration. That people can, quicker than a snap of their fingers rule out the dealing of, I dunno, the 300th best player in the league, for, I dunno, a top 15 guy by Value.. it’s just wild to me. Not that people don’t wanna do it but it’s like the idea is ABSURD haha.

its like the inverse of “bird in hand is equal 2 in the bush”. No one wants to put a lick of value on the immediate value we’d see. It’s NOT A TIM MURRAY thing. Our team is ready to be good! 

i guess it’s just hyper arm chair GM mode all the time. I would trade a shocking amount for ONE more year like the run in 2006. Just one more. Considering how long we’ve been in utter hell as a franchise, how easily that can be the norm, as we’ve seen..how dicey it is to even *make the playoffs*....

honestly, give me one more run. I’ll hang em up and leave you all alone after that, I promise 

Edited May 25, 2023 by Thorny

[French Collection]

If there is no chance he extends in Buffalo I may not make the trade.

If there is a slight chance then KA has time to convince him to extend. The culture change should help, everyone raves about the room. He will win games in Buffalo, bringing the team back to the playoffs and maybe going on a run. That would help KA extend him. Spending time on a young, up and coming team should excite a competitive guy like Hellebuyck.

Hellebuyck would definitely make a difference, he is one of the best goalies in the NHL, year after year.

KA loves his prospects so he won’t give a bunch of them away but he has plenty of them so moving one for Hellebuyck is fair. It is only a one year rental so he should not command a huge haul.

[sabresparaavida]

23 hours ago, sweetlou said:

Back to Hellebuyck idea...

If I would have asked anyone of you two years ago, would you trade Reinhart for Hellebuyck everyone would have said yes.

So in Reinhart you got Levi and pick (Kulich).

So if I asked you now would you trade Levi and (pick/prospect) Savoi, why would you not do that?

Agreed Hellebuyck would have have to have an extension in place of 6-7 years in order for me to make move.

Hellebuyck makes this team a playoff team every year he is here.  Why are we putting are hopes that a prospect will work out?

There is a reason Goalies do not get that big of a return. Goalies are fickle, each year can bring about large differences in performance, especially when switching systems. It is unlikely that Helle would perform similarly in Buffalo than he did in Winnipeg. While we may still get an above average goalie, or possibly still elite, we also could get below average.

Some goalie comparisons of goalies that switched teams last year:

2021-2022.                       2022-2023

kuemper 5th in sv%, .920.   22nd in sv%, .909

Husso 7th, .919.            44th, .896

Georgiev 48th .897.       8th .919

Samsonov 50th .896.      7th .919

Campbell  18th .914.     87th .888

 

While there are some goalies that did not change as much, they tended to be middling goalies (Vanaceck, Hill). 

Goalies have too much uncertainty, that it is not worth sending a big package for one, we do not know how Helle would perform in the Buffalo system. If you can get him for a 2nd+3rd or something like that, sure, but I wouldn’t pay much more for a goalie.

 

[Scottysabres]

My off season plan: drop these 35lbs my Covid black raspberry ice cream and beer journey made magically appear.

My strategy: keep wishing it would go away until I get off my old frumpy ass and do something about it.

#MyBodyMyChoice

[GASabresIUFAN]

9 minutes ago, Scottysabres said:

My off season plan: drop these 35lbs my Covid black raspberry ice cream and beer journey made magically appear.

My strategy: keep wishing it would go away until I get off my old frumpy ass and do something about it.

#MyBodyMyChoice

Bold move Cotton!

[Crusader1969]

16 hours ago, Thorny said:

Seriously, comparing Comrie and Hellebuyck? 
 

I can never wrap my mind around goaltending stuff. It’s like people have no care for the idea of *some* improvement. We saw it literally all year in the GDTs: “well, those were tough shots, what could UPL even have done? His D is bad!”

*goalies are allowed to provide positive value.*. They can even do so when portions of a team aren’t up to snuff! It’s like, the idea of Ullmark gets shot down because “he’s not the guy in Boston he was in Buffalo cause of their team.” SO WHAT? Have you *seen* his statistics *in buffalo*? Way better than any goalie to play for us, last season. Even HASEK I’ve seen lumped into this convo. “Even Hasek wouldn’t so and so behind this D”

ya, he would. Hellebuyck would, too. He’s very good. We need *2* good goalies. The fact we expect Peterka to provide good value down the line isn’t close to enough to make me rule out the astronomical comparative amount Hellebuyck would benefit us this coming year instead of the value Peterka would provide. It needs to at least be a consideration. That people can, quicker than a snap of their fingers rule out the dealing of, I dunno, the 300th best player in the league, for, I dunno, a top 15 guy by Value.. it’s just wild to me. Not that people don’t wanna do it but it’s like the idea is ABSURD haha.

its like the inverse of “bird in hand is equal 2 in the bush”. No one wants to put a lick of value on the immediate value we’d see. It’s NOT A TIM MURRAY thing. Our team is ready to be good! 

i guess it’s just hyper arm chair GM mode all the time. I would trade a shocking amount for ONE more year like the run in 2006. Just one more. Considering how long we’ve been in utter hell as a franchise, how easily that can be the norm, as we’ve seen..how dicey it is to even *make the playoffs*....

honestly, give me one more run. I’ll hang em up and leave you all alone after that, I promise 

Hypothetically, How would you feel now if the Sabres traded Cozens last summer for a goalie that got them into the 2nd round this past year.  But is now leaving as an UFA?    I wouldn’t make the trade but curious if you would 

[thewookie1]

21 hours ago, Flashsabre said:

Tanev is growing on me. I know he gets injured but elite defensively, Conroy says they need to get younger in Calgary. If they aren’t moving Hanafin then I hope they would explore Tanev for a year. Sort of a Teppo for Power.

Tanev for Jokiharju straight up

[nfreeman]

17 hours ago, Thorny said:

Why couldn’t we be a cup contending team adding a top 3 goalie in the world to a top 3 offense in the world?

i would trade JJ Peterka for a singular deep playoff run 

time is valuable, man. By far, by far, the asset we undersell the most on this board. 

But that's not the hypothetical trade.  The hypothetical trade is JJP, or similar high-value asset, for one season that MIGHT include a deep playoff run -- and we should be clear-eyed that the odds of winning more than 1 round with a team and coach this young and inexperienced are quite low.

I think there is effectively zero possibility that they trade for Hellebuyck.  The price will be too high, and KA IMHO has no interest in boxing out Levi by giving Helle the long-term deal he will demand.

Now, if they could get Helle for a 2nd-rounder, or maybe by swapping #13 for #18, and enjoy the fruits of Helle's contract year?  I'm in.  But I don't think Winnipeg will go for that, and I'm not giving up JJP, Quinn, Kulich, Savoie, Rosen, Östlund or #13 for 1 year of a goalie, and I don't think KA is either.

[Flashsabre]

#13, 2nd round pick, UPL for Hellebuyck, #18 would be the type of deal I would go for but I doubt Winnipeg does.

 

[Thorner]

1 hour ago, Crusader1969 said:

Hypothetically, How would you feel now if the Sabres traded Cozens last summer for a goalie that got them into the 2nd round this past year.  But is now leaving as an UFA?    I wouldn’t make the trade but curious if you would 

No Cozens is a different conversation not only ability and projection but position 

[Thorner]

1 hour ago, nfreeman said:

But that's not the hypothetical trade.  The hypothetical trade is JJP, or similar high-value asset, for one season that MIGHT include a deep playoff run -- and we should be clear-eyed that the odds of winning more than 1 round with a team and coach this young and inexperienced are quite low.

I think there is effectively zero possibility that they trade for Hellebuyck.  The price will be too high, and KA IMHO has no interest in boxing out Levi by giving Helle the long-term deal he will demand.

Now, if they could get Helle for a 2nd-rounder, or maybe by swapping #13 for #18, and enjoy the fruits of Helle's contract year?  I'm in.  But I don't think Winnipeg will go for that, and I'm not giving up JJP, Quinn, Kulich, Savoie, Rosen, Östlund or #13 for 1 year of a goalie, and I don't think KA is either.

I know it’s not guaranteed. Obviously. But I was using it as an example to illustrate my valuation. It’s not a guarantee we do great, but the uncertainty is equally present on both sides. It’s not certain that Peterka becomes really good, and it’s also not certain we don’t keep Hellebuyck beyond that one year 

It’s fine if we disagree. I’m definitely trading Östlund for 1 year of Hellebuyck. Full stop. There’s every chance our valuations are way far apart on this. I value next season significantly more in my determinations than you do 

I’m actively seeking to not arm chair GM, I really don’t care about potentially losing a prospect in the deal, when we have a ton, for a shot at a great season, and especially not the “problems” that arise from “blocking” a prospect goalie with a *proven vezina candidate* (I think saying that’s a block is an oxymoron, tbh), particularly when in today’s NHL you need 2 goalies 

Edited May 25, 2023 by Thorny

[Marvin]

I just can't bring myself to give up our highest valued assets for 1 year of Hellebuyck -- and I think with him, Levi, and a #4D push the Sabres into the top 4 in the East on paper.

[nfreeman]

21 minutes ago, Thorny said:

I know it’s not guaranteed. Obviously. But I was using it as an example to illustrate my valuation. It’s not a guarantee we do great, but the uncertainty is equally present on both sides. It’s not certain that Peterka becomes really good, and it’s also not certain we don’t keep Hellebuyck beyond that one year 

It’s fine if we disagree. I’m definitely trading Östlund for 1 year of Hellebuyck. Full stop. There’s every chance our valuations are way far apart on this. I value next season significantly more in my determinations than you do 

I’m actively seeking to not arm chair GM, I really don’t care about potentially losing a prospect in the deal, when we have a ton, for a shot at a great season, and especially not the “problems” that arise from “blocking” a prospect goalie with a *proven vezina candidate* (I think saying that’s a block is an oxymoron, tbh), particularly when in today’s NHL you need 2 goalies 

Of course nothing is guaranteed.  But as I'm sure you understand, it's KA's job to assess probabilities and act on them.  Hello analytics.

I think, and I'd bet that KA thinks, that it's much less likely that the Sabres get past the 2nd round with Helle than it is that JJP will become a player who is good enough that we regret trading him for one year of Helle.

Similarly, the likelihood of Helle staying longer than 1 year seems quite low -- KA loves Levi and appears not to be interested in committing big dollars and term to any goalie, much less one that would box out Levi.

Also, I don't see how you can say that you'd trade Östlund for Helle, full stop, and in the next breath say that you're actively seeking to not armchair GM.

[Thorner]

1 hour ago, nfreeman said:

Of course nothing is guaranteed.  But as I'm sure you understand, it's KA's job to assess probabilities and act on them.  Hello analytics.

I think, and I'd bet that KA thinks, that it's much less likely that the Sabres get past the 2nd round with Helle than it is that JJP will become a player who is good enough that we regret trading him for one year of Helle.

Similarly, the likelihood of Helle staying longer than 1 year seems quite low -- KA loves Levi and appears not to be interested in committing big dollars and term to any goalie, much less one that would box out Levi.

Also, I don't see how you can say that you'd trade Östlund for Helle, full stop, and in the next breath say that you're actively seeking to not armchair GM.

Ya I mean I said days ago Adams wouldn’t do it. It’s simply what I would do. There isn’t much to talk about tbh if we want to focus only on moves through the prism of Adams’ particular mindset. John does an excellent job keeping the parameters set on that. I agree with him we likely run back what we have in net

arm chair GM to me, when I use that phrase, I’m referring to fans managing the roster through the lens of a GM and all that entails: you can see for an example how Adams particular thinking informs your argument, you are literally putting yourself in his shoes and analyzing as if running the team within the context of his plan. When I say I’m not arm-chair GMing, I’m consciously prioritizing my mindset as a fan ie I want to take a run next season, I’m in the business of Moments, I don’t care if I have to give up Östlund the mystery box. To me, GMs, particularly Adams, don’t really think that way 

he is always speaking to “the long game”, that’s his job as GM I guess, whereas I don’t see “only 1 year” as “only” at all. It’s a year. It’s a season. Don’t know how many I’ll get, don’t want to count chickens before they hatch. Again, I’m placing a lot of value on the coming year. By choice.

the entirety of the best team I’ve seen as a fan, the most enjoyment I’ve had as a fan, in a way, the reason I’m even a fan, was a 2 season run from 2005-2007. Thats it. 2 years. And the hope for that again. The Jets run with their vaunted core had *1* standout season. That’s it. You guys are all looking to build a dynasty. A commendable pursuit. But it’s very hard. I see us standing on the precipice of another season/run that gives my fandom meaning: to me, it’s a Hellebuyck away. I can’t be bothered to care too much beyond the recognition I would seize this chance

carpe diem

Edited May 25, 2023 by Thorny

[Crusader1969]

1 hour ago, nfreeman said:

Of course nothing is guaranteed.  But as I'm sure you understand, it's KA's job to assess probabilities and act on them.  Hello analytics.

I think, and I'd bet that KA thinks, that it's much less likely that the Sabres get past the 2nd round with Helle than it is that JJP will become a player who is good enough that we regret trading him for one year of Helle.

Similarly, the likelihood of Helle staying longer than 1 year seems quite low -- KA loves Levi and appears not to be interested in committing big dollars and term to any goalie, much less one that would box out Levi.

Also, I don't see how you can say that you'd trade Östlund for Helle, full stop, and in the next breath say that you're actively seeking to not armchair GM.

100%   I get he is a winger but he scored in the AHL at an historic rate in the AHL, was one or the Sabres better players down the stretch and now leading the Germans to a semi final matchup vs the States.  3rd in scoring in the entire tournament and besides Gauthier is the only player under 25 anywhere near the top of the scoring leaders.

[nfreeman]

1 hour ago, Thorny said:

the entirety of the best team I’ve seen as a fan, the most enjoyment I’ve had as a fan, in a way, the reason I’m even a fan, was a 2 season run from 2005-2007. Thats it. 2 years. And the hope for that again. The Jets run with their vaunted core had *1* standout season. That’s it. You guys are all looking to build a dynasty. A commendable pursuit. But it’s very hard. I see us standing on the precipice of another season/run that gives my fandom meaning: to me, it’s a Hellebuyck away. I can’t be bothered to care too much beyond the recognition I would seize this chance

 

carpe diem

I hear ya, notwithstanding the strange new choice of omitting periods at the end of your paragraphs

I agree about that 2-year run, although 2005-06 was much more magical IMHO than 2006-07.  I was at game 3 of the ECF vs Carolina in 2006, in which the Sabres took a 2-1 lead in the series, and it was freaking amazing (although Tallinder broke his arm in that game, a huge loss and major step in the road to the D-corps ruin).  I can't really fault you for being willing to pay any price to get that back.

I just think it's so hard, and so random, to go on a deep run in the playoffs, that the right approach is to build a team that has a good shot every year for a number of years -- and trading away a top prospect for one year of a veteran goalie cuts in pretty much the exact opposite direction.

[Thorner]

24 minutes ago, nfreeman said:

I hear ya, notwithstanding the strange new choice of omitting periods at the end of your paragraphs

I agree about that 2-year run, although 2005-06 was much more magical IMHO than 2006-07.  I was at game 3 of the ECF vs Carolina in 2006, in which the Sabres took a 2-1 lead in the series, and it was freaking amazing (although Tallinder broke his arm in that game, a huge loss and major step in the road to the D-corps ruin).  I can't really fault you for being willing to pay any price to get that back.

I just think it's so hard, and so random, to go on a deep run in the playoffs, that the right approach is to build a team that has a good shot every year for a number of years -- and trading away a top prospect for one year of a veteran goalie cuts in pretty much the exact opposite direction.

Ya, Briere’s breakaway goal. Magical stuff. I also remember being on a high, going out to a movie or something, and my Dad rather than still being jubilant when I got home, letting me know about Tallinder’s prognosis. 2006 was THE year, ya 

[Thorner]

This is what people think Hellebuyck will cost. And most of the replies scoff at paying even that 

 

[Marvin]

18 minutes ago, Thorny said:

This is what people think Hellebuyck will cost. And most of the replies scoff at paying even that 

 

Karlsson is the wrong kind of defenceman for Buffalo.  I would take numerous "lesser" defencemen like DeMelo, Hanifin, Tanev, Clifton, etc. over him.

[Thorner]

3 minutes ago, Marvin said:

Karlsson is the wrong kind of defenceman for Buffalo.  I would take numerous "lesser" defencemen like DeMelo, Hanifin, Tanev, Clifton, etc. over him.

I didn’t even pay attention to the EK stuff haha 

[Taro T]

1 hour ago, Thorny said:

This is what people think Hellebuyck will cost. And most of the replies scoff at paying even that 

 

 

Like Krebs.  Really like Peterka.  But if one of them and UPL could bring Hellebucyk to Buffalo, pull the trigger Mr. Adams.  UPL MIGHT become a good NHLer, but he has very little trade value and his leaving does little to deplete the team's assets.  Losing Krebs hurts.  He could become a Gilmour-lite player (expect he can bring the 200' game and edge that Doug brought, but will score only about 75% of what Doug did (even prorated for differences in eras).  Peterka could really become a great goal scorer for this team but offense is what the Sabres have in Spades.  Losing ONE piece of that to lock down the goaltending this season and POSSIBLY into the future is worth it.  Especially when Adams team seems to be finally getting the draft right in a way the Sabres have not been able to do in 40 or so years, you can give up A piece that hurts to fill a hole that needs to be filled.

[sweetlou]

On 5/24/2023 at 10:42 AM, Crusader1969 said:

Daily Faceoff UFA contract estimations, who you going after? 

Daily Faceoff’s Top 50 Pending Free Agents  

 

Im going after:
1) Graves
2) Andersen or Hill
3) Hathaway

 

RankPlayer   Pos   Age           Projection

1 Damon Severson   RD28     6 x $6.1m
2 Tyler BertuzziL W               6 x $5.25m
3 Dmitry Orlov  LD                  5 x $6.25m
4 J.T. Compher  C                   5 x $5.3m
5 Michael Bunting  LW  27     5 x $5.25m
6 Ryan Graves  LD   28           5 x $5.1m
7 Alex Killorn  RW  33             4 x $5.25m
8 Patrick Kane  RW  34          3 x $5.75
9 Ryan O’Reilly  C  32             3 x $5.5m
10 Vladislav Gavrikov  LD 27  5 x $4.9m
11 Tristan Jarry  G  28            4 x $4.8m
12 Jordan Staal  C  34            2 x $3.2m
13 Vladimir Tarasenko  RW   3 x $5m
14 Max Pacioretty  LW  34     1 x $1.5m
15Max Domi  C/LW  28            5 x $4.75m
16 Ivan Barbashev  LW  27      4 x $4.2m
17 Scott Mayfield  RD  30        3 x $3.75m
18 Frederik Andersen  G  33    2 x $4m
19 Evgenii Dadonov  RW  34    1 x $1.9m
20 Connor Brown  RW  29        4 x $3.3m
21 Carson Soucy  LD  28            3 x $2.5m
22 Radko Gudas  RD  33             3 x $3.3m
23 Erik Haula C/LW  32               3 x $3.5m
24 Matt Dumba  RD  28               3 x $4.4m
25 Adin Hill G 27                          2 x $3.3m
26 Joonas Korpisalo G  29         2 x $2.6m
27 Semyon Varlamov  G  35       2 x $2.75m
28 Alex Kerfoot LW/RW  28        4 x $3.5m
29 Shayne Gostisbehere LD 30   4 x $4.8m
30 Luke Schenn RD  33                 1 x $1.6m
31 Garnet Hathaway RW 31           4 x $2m
32Jason Zucker LW  31                  5 x $5.4m
33 John Klingberg  RD  30              3 x $4.6m
34 James van Riemsdyk LW/RW 34   1 x $1.8m
35 Gustav Nyquist LW 33                    2 x $3.2m
36 Pierre Engvall RW 27                      4 x $4.1m
37 David Kampf  C  28                         2 x $1.8m
38 Connor Clifton RD 27                      2 x $1.75m
39 Evan Rodrigues C  29                     3 x $3.7m
40 Tomas Tatar LW 32                        3 x $3.3m
41 Ian Cole LD  34                               2 x $2.75m
42 Nick Foligno C/LW  35                   1 x $1.2m
43  Jesper Fast  RW 31                       2 x $2.3m
44  Nick Bjugstad C 30                        2 x $2.3m
45 Erik Gustafsson LD 31                    3 x $3.4m
46 Justin Holl RD 31  TOR                    3 x $3m
47 Sean Monahan C 28                        1 x $2m
48Jonathan Drouin C/LW  28               1 x $2m
49 Teddy Blueger C 28                         2 x $1.1m
50 Corey Perry RW  38                           1 x $850k
51  Noel Acciara   RW 31                         2 x $1.5m

 

 

 

 

The safest way and way KA probably goes is:

Defense- RD- Mayfield, Dumba or Cliffton, LD- Soucy

Forward- Hathaway, Acciari 

Goalie- Freddie Anderson

 

[Flashsabre]

If Boston has to move Ullmark I think he would be a much more economical acquisition than Hellebuyck. 

You would have him for 2 more years at $5 million. Perfect timeline for Levi to develop. I don’t think him leaving before would be a big deal. 

Last year was a special year for him but his overall career he hovers around a .917 sv% which would be a big upgrade for Buffalo. Ullmark/Levi for 2 years would put them in the playoffs.

I would go after Tanev to play with Power. He has one year left and Conroy says they want to get younger. 

I would move Olofsson and UPL for picks and then use those picks as part of packages for Ullmark and Tanev. If Tanev has more then one year then I would move Joker for him but for a one year rental I wouldn’t. Maybe if Tanev agrees to an extension before hand.