The Johnson watch has started

[Huckleberry]

doubt it looks good if he hasn't signed in next couple of days.

[CTJoe]

6 minutes ago, Buffalonill said:

If i was Johnson i would take the money and burn a year 

That offer may not be on the table with the Sabres.  KA might not think he's worth it....who knows?

[tom webster]

12 minutes ago, Pimlach said:

 

Thanks for the info on Toronto and Minnesota, I did not know that burning a year of ELC is "how is it done" today.  Another nice perk for the NCAA guys.    

As for why he might pass.  I sure don't know why he might pass, I also think that  it is entirely possible that Adams could take a position that drives Johnson to pass on Buffalo, and then acquire the 2nd round compensatory pick.    

It is possible but I think unlikely. I believe they really like Johnson.

[kas23]

3 hours ago, CTJoe said:

Harington saying the Sabres might not be that high on him and rather have the 2024 2nd rounder than signing him??

This would be an extremely odd move from KA. Giving up a young defenseman, who could be in NHL in 1-2 years for a 2nd rounder? A 2nd rounder wouldn’t likely touch the NHL for 2-3 years or even 3-4 years if a defenseman. Plus, push these time lines out another year because it would be a 2024 2nd rounder. The only thing good thing about a 2024 2nd round pick would be if we included it in a package for a vet defenseman as a sweetener. 

[Xzy89c]

dont sign him. We get a second round pick if we do not. IF he was eligible for draft he would not be drafted in the second round.

[Xzy89c]

20 hours ago, ... said:

What's all the hubbub about? Is this guy good, like the D version of Levi good?

no, he was good college dman. no indication he would be better than a bryson. sabers are going to let him go and keep the 2nd round pick.

[Eleven]

2 hours ago, Eleven said:

If you don't want to watch Johnsons you don't have to open the thread.

@Xzy89cI think he knows I'm kidding...

[Xzy89c]

1 hour ago, Cheektorado said:

I get the ELC burning of a year is a disadvantage but in the big picture I don't think it matters that much.  If he plays 3rd pairing, he is not going to cost too much with his first RFA.  If something crazy happens with him and he's burning it up, will that be bad?  You either pay him or trade him.

He'll only have a 2-year window to show what his initial worth is.  He's going to be 22 years old by camp.  What's the difference if he would have signed last year and burned a year down in Rochester?  If signing him now gets him signed, do it.  It's better than him moving on to another team.  

those prospects are much higher in rankings than johnson. Johnson Ceiling is like 5th or 6th dman after a couple years in AHL.

[Buffalonill]

15 minutes ago, Xzy89c said:

dont sign him. We get a second round pick if we do not. IF he was eligible for draft he would not be drafted in the second round.

Wait you dont want him ? 

[Eleven]

4 minutes ago, Xzy89c said:

no, he was good college dman. no indication he would be better than a bryson. sabers are going to let him go and keep the 2nd round pick.

 

1 minute ago, Xzy89c said:

those prospects are much higher in rankings than johnson. Johnson Ceiling is like 5th or 6th dman after a couple years in AHL.

You may be right, but the team needs D depth NOW, not in 2028 when the 2d round pick in 2024 might materialize.  Not signing Johnson means the Sabres need to recruit yet one more free agent D who can move freely between the AHL and the NHL, and I'm not sure there are too many of those--and they may need a couple even IF they sign Johnson.

[Flashsabre]

4 minutes ago, Xzy89c said:

no, he was good college dman. no indication he would be better than a bryson. sabers are going to let him go and keep the 2nd round pick.

Stop positioning your personal opinion as fact. There is no indication the Sabres aren’t interested.

The pick would be at the end of the 2024 2nd round so really a 3rd round pick.

They should sign Johnson. He is a good defensive dman. Something they need more of.

[msw2112]

The Sabres have plenty of draft picks, and NHL draft pick hit rate is not very high, particularly after the first round.  The Sabres also have an abundance of forward prospects and a shortage of defensive prospects.  Johnson will never be mistaken for Owen Power or Rasmus Dahlin, but he's a good college defenseman who has a chance to be 3rd pairing NHL defenseman (at best) or a good AHL player who could provide organizational depth (at worst).  He may or may not turn out to be better than Bryson, but the only way to find out is to sign him and let him play.  I think the Sabres will try to sign him, but if he is not interested, it's not the end of the world and they can move on with the draft pick.  Unless Adams is lying, he said that the team was interested in signing Johnson and the ball is in Johnson's court.  I don't see any reason not to believe Adams in this situation.

Edited April 10, 2023 by msw2112

[Eleven]

12 minutes ago, msw2112 said:

The Sabres have plenty of draft picks, and NHL draft pick hit rate is not very high, particularly after the first round.  The Sabres also have an abundance of forward prospects and a shortage of defensive prospects.  Johnson will never be mistaken for Owen Power or Rasmus Dahlin, but he's a good college defenseman who has a chance to be 3rd pairing NHL defenseman (at best) or a good AHL player who could provide organizational depth (at worst).  He may or may not turn out to be better than Bryson, but the only way to find out is to sign him and let him play.  I think the Sabres will try to sign him, but if he is not interested, it's not the end of the world and they can move on with the draft pick.  Unless Adams is lying, he said that the team was interested in signing Johnson and the ball is in Johnson's court.  I don't see any reason not to believe Adams in this situation.

I also think that from Johnson's perspective, there are few teams that can give him a better chance to play in the NHL next year.  This team is weak on D, as we all know; what team is going to give him a better opportunity to either start in the NHL or move up and down?  Arizona?  Please.  And for the reasons in the article that @Doohickie posted above, Johnson might be wise to not burn a year of his ELC this week, too.

[Xzy89c]

19 minutes ago, Flashsabre said:

Stop positioning your personal opinion as fact. There is no indication the Sabres aren’t interested.

The pick would be at the end of the 2024 2nd round so really a 3rd round pick.

They should sign Johnson. He is a good defensive dman. Something they need more of.

this board is nothing but opinion. The fact he is not signed is great indication they may not be interested. They have had months to prepare for end of season signing.

End of 2nd round is...... a second round pick. Is beginning of second round actually a first round pick due to proximity?

He was a senior who did not dominate college. Was good dman on a very good team. He does not have a standout skill. The correct call (In my opinion just to be clear) is to not sign him and take the pick.

[Eleven]

4 minutes ago, Xzy89c said:

this board is nothing but opinion. The fact he is not signed is great indication they may not be interested. They have had months to prepare for end of season signing.

End of 2nd round is...... a second round pick. Is beginning of second round actually a first round pick due to proximity?

He was a senior who did not dominate college. Was good dman on a very good team. He does not have a standout skill. The correct call (In my opinion just to be clear) is to not sign him and take the pick.

The Sabres' top D prospect who hasn't played with the team yet is Komarov, as far as I can tell.  Is that status quo really what you want going into next season?  Or would it make more sense to bring in a 21-year old now, rather than draft an 18-year-old in 2024 who will be 21 in 2027?  Try not to dig in; think it through.

[Xzy89c]

29 minutes ago, Buffalonill said:

Wait you dont want him ? 

not at all. posted a couple times already. He was senior on a very good team and he did not dominate. Not close. He will take a year or two to maybe develop into his ceiling of a fifth or 6th dman or become a AHL guy. A second round pick is worth more than a potential 6th dman.

If he was eligible for draft today he would not be a 2nd round pick. he has just not developed as hoped. It is not unheard of to walk away from a first round pick in order to get the compensation. I think the Wild and Montreal did with players drafted in the teens.

[Xzy89c]

14 minutes ago, Eleven said:

The Sabres' top D prospect who hasn't played with the team yet is Komarov, as far as I can tell.  Is that status quo really what you want going into next season?  Or would it make more sense to bring in a 21-year old now, rather than draft an 18-year-old in 2024 who will be 21 in 2027?  Try not to dig in; think it through.

Our top D prospect is probably not in the org yet. To be drafted or traded for in offseason.

We have World class Dahlin , Elite in Power(maybe on way to World Class), A very good dman in Mule and an above average d in Joker. We struggle when one of them is hurt. Especially the top three.

We need a dman that can potentially push joker out of top 4. That is not, nor ever will be Johnson. He also will not be NHL ready for next year.

I hope I am wrong if we sign him and he is ready for big role, but there is no indication from his play that he is at best a 5th or 6th dman AFTER significant development time.

Overating your own prospects is a real thing. We see them drafted and watch them develop. We overate them in our own eyes. I do it in Baseball all the time.  I am still waiting for Joel Savage from Turgeon draft to debut.

 

46 minutes ago, msw2112 said:

The Sabres have plenty of draft picks, and NHL draft pick hit rate is not very high, particularly after the first round.  The Sabres also have an abundance of forward prospects and a shortage of defensive prospects.  Johnson will never be mistaken for Owen Power or Rasmus Dahlin, but he's a good college defenseman who has a chance to be 3rd pairing NHL defenseman (at best) or a good AHL player who could provide organizational depth (at worst).  He may or may not turn out to be better than Bryson, but the only way to find out is to sign him and let him play.  I think the Sabres will try to sign him, but if he is not interested, it's not the end of the world and they can move on with the draft pick.  Unless Adams is lying, he said that the team was interested in signing Johnson and the ball is in Johnson's court.  I don't see any reason not to believe Adams in this situation.

a second round pick is more valuable than a maybe in a couple years third pair dman.

Edited April 10, 2023 by Xzy89c

[MattPie]

6 minutes ago, Xzy89c said:

not at all. posted a couple times already. He was senior on a very good team and he did not dominate. Not close. He will take a year or two to maybe develop into his ceiling of a fifth or 6th dman or become a AHL guy. A second round pick is worth more than a potential 6th dman.

If he was eligible for draft today he would not be a 2nd round pick. he has just not developed as hoped. It is not unheard of to walk away from a first round pick in order to get the compensation. I think the Wild and Montreal did with players drafted in the teens.

You may be half right. A 2nd round pick in 2024 is useless for improving the Sabres next year, since it'll (hopefully) be mid-late part of the 2nd where it's a 1/4 chance the player will ever play an NHL game. However, come September 2023, if the Sabres use the pick as currency with another player, it might bring in a 5/6D. For instance:

Quote

OCTOBER 7: Chicago Blackhawks acquire forward Jason Dickinson and a 2nd-round pick in the 2024 NHL Draft from the Vancouver Canucks in exchange for defenseman Riley Stillman.

 

[LabattBlue]

1 hour ago, Xzy89c said:

dont sign him. We get a second round pick if we do not. IF he was eligible for draft he would not be drafted in the second round.

Have you looked at the blueline pipeline recently? 

[Taro T]

4 minutes ago, MattPie said:

You may be half right. A 2nd round pick in 2024 is useless for improving the Sabres next year, since it'll (hopefully) be mid-late part of the 2nd where it's a 1/4 chance the player will ever play an NHL game. However, come September 2023, if the Sabres use the pick as currency with another player, it might bring in a 5/6D. For instance:

 

If the Sabres don't sign Johnson, the compensation pick the Sabres get will be the 31st pick of the 2nd round in 2024.  Aka the 63rd overall pick.  Yes, the player picked there might become a stud, but it's more likely that if he makes the NHL he'll be 3rd pairing or bottom 6. 

Why wait 4 or so years for that, when they can have a 3rd pairing guy in Johnson either next year or the year after.

Adams says he'll be an NHLer and wants to sign him.  But it's up to Johnson.  Hoping this delay is just that, merely a delay, like signing Levi was delayed a few days.

Until we hear otherwise, will assume the delay is him deciding whether it makes more sense to sit in the pressbox in Buffalo buring an ELC year or playing in the playoffs in Ra-cha-cha and not getting to a non-ELC contract a year earlier.  Neither path gets him to RFA/UFA status any sooner at this point.  (Presuming he signs this spring; he could be a one time UFA this summer if he bails on the Sabres altogether.)

[Eleven]

18 minutes ago, Xzy89c said:

Our top D prospect is probably not in the org yet. To be drafted or traded for in offseason.

We have World class Dahlin , Elite in Power(maybe on way to World Class), A very good dman in Mule and an above average d in Joker. We struggle when one of them is hurt. Especially the top three.

We need a dman that can potentially push joker out of top 4. That is not, nor ever will be Johnson. He also will not be NHL ready for next year.

I hope I am wrong if we sign him and he is ready for big role, but there is no indication from his play that he is at best a 5th or 6th dman AFTER significant development time.

Overating your own prospects is a real thing. We see them drafted and watch them develop. We overate them in our own eyes. I do it in Baseball all the time.  I am still waiting for Joel Savage from Turgeon draft to debut.

 

a second round pick is more valuable than a maybe in a couple years third pair dman.

OK, here's the thing.  The Sabres do have a GREAT top three.  Maybe even four.  But behind them it's very shaky already, and when one goes down--and they always do--someone needs to come up.

Overrating prospects?  I don't think that's happening here, at least not in my discussion with you.  Let's say you're right, and he's another Bryson.  Thing is, the Sabres' org NEEDS another Bryson.  Like five more.  It's that bad.  The Sabres need two legit D and five Brysons.

Overrating draft picks, on the other hand--an end of the second round 2024 pick has about a 35% chance of playing an NHL game by 2028 ( @Taro T and @LGR4GM can correct me if I'm wrong)--is a bigger threat.  

Edited April 10, 2023 by Eleven

[French Collection]

7 minutes ago, Eleven said:

Thing is, the Sabres' org NEEDS another Bryson.  Like five more.  It's that bad.  The Sabres need two legit D and five Brysons.

Watching Bryson may be the only thing that makes me want to turn the game off.

I know what you mean, they need 4-5 Stillman, Bryson, Clague, Pilut caliber Dmen.

[MBD]

Give it until Friday.  That's how long it took from Levi's last game to when he signed.

[Weave]

10 minutes ago, Eleven said:

OK, here's the thing.  The Sabres do have a GREAT top three.  Maybe even four.  But behind them it's very shaky already, and when one goes down--and they always do--someone needs to come up.

Overrating prospects?  I don't think that's happening here, at least not in my discussion with you.  Let's say you're right, and he's another Bryson.  Thing is, the Sabres' org NEEDS another Bryson.  Like five more.  It's that bad.  The Sabres need two legit D and five Brysons.

Overrating draft picks, on the other hand--an end of the second round 2024 pick has about a 35% chance of playing an NHL game by 2028 ( @Taro T and @LGR4GM can correct me if I'm wrong)--is a bigger threat.  

End of the second round?  35% is quite optimistic.

[DarthEbriate]

6 minutes ago, Eleven said:

Overrating prospects?  I don't think that's happening here, at least not in my discussion with you.  Let's say you're right, and he's another Bryson.  Thing is, the Sabres' org NEEDS another Bryson.  Like five more.  It's that bad.  The Sabres need two legit D and five Brysons.

It's not just having Brysons, it's having Brysons on waivers-exempt ELCs. That's what Johnson is for the next two seasons. They need folks in Rochester who can be good-to-great in the AHL and get their callup for injuries, and then get right back down once the crisis is past. The Sabres had no one this season and possibly only Komarov next year if Johnson doesn't sign. That's his biggest value. (And the possibility that just maybe he gels with Power in some weird mind-meld like McKee and Warrener and voila you're set for 4 seasons.)

Once the Sabres decided not to send UPL down, the chain reaction was losing Fitz for nothing, only to have to expend an asset (Bloom/3rd equivalent) to regain Fitz(Stillman) again. Clague, Bryson, Fitz, Stillman --- every team can use 7th/8th depth throughout the season with injuries and each of those guys could get claimed if waived depending on who is hurt and when. The pipeline needs to have stages of assets to stay healthy.