Devon Levi and the goaltending next year (or Should I Say - Devon Levi - The Goaltender Next Year!)

[GASabresIUFAN]

Devon Levi has played two excellent games in his 1st two starts against very talented offensive teams in Florida and the NYR.  He has faced 69 shots in those two games and allowed only 4 goals.  The shots against were typical for the Sabres this season.  His .942 save % is incredible.

It’s likely that Devon starts at least 3 of the team’s final 6 games. Why not.  He is giving us the best chance to win right now and we need wins.

For the sake of this discussion, I’m going to assume Devon plays at a similarly high level in his remaining starts.  When that happens, how does KA view his goaltending going into next season?  Does he anoint Devon as the starter and keep one of Comrie or UPL as the backup.  Does he move on from both UPL and Comrie and bring in a seasoned NHL goalie, like Talbot, as 1B to Levi? Does he bring in a high end veteran like Boston did to pair with Devon? Does he send Devon to start the year in Rochester to take some pressure off the kid, keep one of UPL or Comrie and bring in a more seasoned vet as the starter?

With 3 goalies under contract, but 2 are unreliable and one is a rookie, KA has some hard choices to make.

My gut tells me to follow Dallas’ approach with Oettinger and let Devon start next season in Rochester.  Bring in a good vet on two year deal and move on from one of Comrie or UPL.

 

 

Edited April 11, 2023 by GASabresIUFAN

[PromoTheRobot]

It will probably be Levi/UPL or Levi/Comrie with the odd man getting traded. If I were to guess I'd say Comrie goes.

[MattPie]

Team play style aside, Comrie has shown himself to be a competent backup before this year. I don't know enough to discuss whether Winnipeg's style fits with Comrie better than the Sabres'.

Edited April 5, 2023 by MattPie

[Taro T]

As have said elsewhere, would like to see a good vet on a 2 year (or 3 year if necessary) deal and have an open competition between the 4.  

 

Plan on trading UPL or Comrie and one of the other 3 ends up in Ra-cha-cha. But the best 2 of the 4 get kept and stay in Buffalo.

 

Expect they would've liked to have Levi in Ra-cha-cha to start the next year. But if he keeps doing in the NHL what he's done everywhere else, can't see the point of having him in Ra-cha-cha.

 

And, back to this season, would play him every remaining game as long as they are still alive in the playoff chase. The players on the team deserve tha.t much

 

 

Edited April 5, 2023 by Taro T

[dudacek]

16 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

For the sake of this discussion, I’m going to assume Devon plays at a similarly high level in his remaining starts.  When that happens, how does KA view his goaltending going into next season?  Does he anoint Devon as the starter and keep one of Comrie or UPL as the backup?

 

 

It's not what I would do, but i expect it is what Adams will do.

Fingers crossed Devon will justify the faith.

[sabresparaavida]

1 minute ago, MattPie said:

Team play style aside, Comrie has shown himself to be a competent backup before this year. I don't know enough to discuss whether Winnipeg's style fits with Comrie better than the Sabres'.

I would disagree with the bold, Comrie has shown he can be a competent backup, not that he was one. The most games he has played in a season has been 19, (starting 16 for Winnipeg, 19 this year) with a .920 save percentage one year, and a .886 the other year. His career save percentage is .897, not exactly competent level. 19 games is not statistically significant to show the quality of a goalie, and unless you have a top 10 goalie, 19 games is not enough for a backup.  

[Buffalonill]

Whats crazy all the goals scored on Levi are all Flukes

[steveoath]

25 minutes ago, MattPie said:

Team play style aside, Comrie has shown himself to be a competent backup before this year. I don't know enough to discuss whether Winnipeg's style fits with Comrie better than the Sabres'.

There was a discussion about this on the PDOcast.  Basically saying that winnipeg's D structure plays to the strengths of Hellebuyck (and Comrie when he was there) and our run n gun style does not. 

They then had a wee thought exercise and came up with Sarros as a stylistic peer to Levi, who could work in our offense first system. 

Would recommend a listen. 

https://open.spotify.com/episode/0FP91WySIAdbruZkvwnZtt?si=F6q5e3hdTw2TaVHPNHVtcw

 

[GASabresIUFAN]

28 minutes ago, dudacek said:

It's not what I would do, but i expect it is what Adams will do.

Fingers crossed Devon will justify the faith.

You expect KA to anoint Devon as the starter next season?  If he does that, he'd better have a darn good backup plan.  Comrie and UPL don't constitute a good backup plan IMHO.

[pi2000]

Sure small NHL sample size, but having been around the game for 40+ years, I can confidently say Levi appears to be the real deal.     He's athletic, competitive, detailed and driven.     Reminds me of  Jonathan Quick, Eddie Belfour, Curtis Joseph, etc... not big guys, but athletic and competitive as hell.  

As I detailed in another post, if the Sabres received average NHL goaltending on home ice (sv%, GA v XGA), they would be in the top wildcard spot.

[GASabresIUFAN]

6 minutes ago, pi2000 said:

As I detailed in another post, if the Sabres received average NHL goaltending on home ice (sv%, GA v XGA), they would be in the top wildcard spot.

There is no question this is true.

There is also no question that Levi is as prepared to play in the NHL as a rookie as I've seen in Buffalo since Barasso.  

However, regardless of how special the kid is, I look at Ryan Miller, Conor Hellebuyck, and Jake Oettinger, all college goalies who had similar college careers, and all benefitted from at least some time in the AHL.  Miller played very well in Buffalo his rookie year (15 games 2.63 & a .902), but still played 170+ AHL games.  Hellebuyck played 88 AHL games across 2 seasons and Oettinger played 54 across 3 seasons.  The only guy I remember being arguably ready at a younger age was Carter Hart and his results have been mixed in the NHL.  

[dudacek]

24 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

You expect KA to anoint Devon as the starter next season?  If he does that, he'd better have a darn good backup plan.  Comrie and UPL don't constitute a good backup plan IMHO.

I expect him to shop around the goalie market, find out that the small group of available goalies on short-term deals either “cost too much to acquire,” or “aren’t significantly better” than UPL or Comrie and let the three of them battle it out in training camp.

That’s a battle I expect Levi to win, and Adams does too.

Again, it’s not what I would do. I would throw a $6 million AAV two-year offer at an Andersen or Varlamov, or pay the necessary price for a similar-level goalie with a year or 2 left on his contract.

I’d fully expect Levi to supplant him - maybe even immediately - but it’s a price I’m willing to pay for the security blanket.

 

Edited April 5, 2023 by dudacek

[Mr. Allen]

I’m not a huge hockey guy so excuse the question.  But could this be a scenario that once NHL teams get more tape on Levi they’ll figure him out more? 

[matter2003]

Levi is the starter going into next year. There is no reason for him to play in the AHL, he can improve while playing here...it's obvious he is the best goaltender on the roster currently.

He has next level movement skills. He looks like he is moving at 1.5x the speed of our other goalies. That was obvious by the end of the 2nd period of the first game. He is making spectacular saves look easy because he is covering up the entire net before the pass even gets across. On that save against Duclair last night, he literally had nowhere to put the puck. Yes it was an amazing save simply by him getting across, but because he got across so fast it ended up being more of a routine save.

There is no valid reason he is not the starter next year in Buffalo. He can handle it. He is built differently from most 21 year olds. He thrives under the pressure and wants it.

Edited April 5, 2023 by matter2003

[Derrico]

1 hour ago, Taro T said:

As have said elsewhere, would like to see a good vet on a 2 year (or 3 year if necessary) deal and have an open competition between the 4.  

 

Plan on trading UPL or Comrie and one of the other 3 ends up in Ra-cha-cha. But the best 2 of the 4 get kept and stay in Buffalo.

 

Expect they would've liked to have Levi in Ra-cha-cha to start the next year. But if he keeps doing in the NHL what he's done everywhere else, can't see the point of having him in Ra-cha-cha.

 

And, back to this season, would play him every remaining game as long as they are still alive in the playoff chase. The players on the team deserve tha.t much

 

 

This. 

 

Not sure if mods can transfer over discussion from the 'Devon Levi signs' thread to here?  That disccussion is certainly more relavent in this thread.

[GASabresIUFAN]

23 minutes ago, dudacek said:

I expect him to shop around the goalie market, find out that the small group of available goalies on short-term deals either “cost too much to acquire,” or “aren’t significantly better” than UPL or Comrie and let the three of them battle it out in training camp.

That’s a battle I expect Levi to win, and Adams does too.

Again, it’s not what I would do. I would throw a $6 million AAV two-year offer at an Andersen or Varlamov, or pay the necessary price for a similar-level goalie with a year or 2 left on his contract.

I’d fully expect Levi to supplant him - maybe even immediately - but it’s a price I’m willing to pay for the security blanket.

 

You and I are in full agreement on this.  I want a Saros or even a Hart to insure we are a playoff team next season and if Levi is better so be it.  Then we'll have a Swayman/Ullmark "problem."  I can live with that.  However, there is a large gap between what we would do and what we think KA might do.

14 minutes ago, Mr. Allen said:

I’m not a huge hockey guy so excuse the question.  But could this be a scenario that once NHL teams get more tape on Levi they’ll figure him out more? 

Certainly, more tape will give teams a better chance to "solve" Levi, but Levi is so focused and professional at 21, I expect him to work to take away any differences in his game long-term. 

Edited April 5, 2023 by GASabresIUFAN

[Zamboni]

14 minutes ago, Mr. Allen said:

I’m not a huge hockey guy so excuse the question.  But could this be a scenario that once NHL teams get more tape on Levi they’ll figure him out more? 

Short answer …. Yes.

 

but he’ll also develop more.

[dudacek]

26 minutes ago, Mr. Allen said:

I’m not a huge hockey guy so excuse the question.  But could this be a scenario that once NHL teams get more tape on Levi they’ll figure him out more? 

Yes. But it does seem to happen mostly with more limited guys like a Patrick Lalime or Andrew Hammond comes out of nowhere and gets on a hot streak.

Most goalies who combine well-rounded technique with good athleticism don’t have a pronounced weakness for the tape to reveal. When they struggle, it will largely be mental.

Also, remember, hockey is chaotic, so, if a goalie struggles in a particular area, the game and the defence has to present opportunities to exploit that area.

It’s not like football where you can design a game plan to consistently take away a QB’s strengths.

 

Edited April 5, 2023 by dudacek

[K-9]

And of those four goals allowed at least three of them were of the fluky variety. I don’t recall him getting beat by a great snipe yet. He’s such an athletic goalie; fun to watch. And competitive as hell. Can’t teach that. 

[DarthEbriate]

1 hour ago, Buffalonill said:

Whats crazy all the goals scored on Levi are all Flukes

Except the Tkachuk goal. That was a high-talent, practiced deflection that would have beaten any good goalie who aggressively played the shooter. (Maybe a big, slow goalie makes the save simply because they were still stuck in the net... but then they're leaving space for the shooter to pick corners.) However, --- that deflection is also a low percentage play. If the d-man boxes Tkachuk out or disrupts the stick, it's just a harmless shot off the backboards.

Levi is a very good goalie. He makes difficult shots look routine and makes the easy ones look like a taunt at the opposition.

[Weave]

1 hour ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

You expect KA to anoint Devon as the starter next season?  If he does that, he'd better have a darn good backup plan.  Comrie and UPL don't constitute a good backup plan IMHO.

Don’t hold your breath waiting for a backup plan.  No doubt in my mind that we stand pat on goalies.  This is what KA was waiting for.

[JohnC]

55 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

You expect KA to anoint Devon as the starter next season?  If he does that, he'd better have a darn good backup plan.  Comrie and UPL don't constitute a good backup plan IMHO.

My sense is that KA is not going outside the organization to bring in another goalie, especially if it requires giving up assets. Comrie had to deal with injuries this season and had to play behind a loose defense. So, I wouldn't come to a hardened conclusion about him yet. And I don't think that KA has given up on UPL as a NHL goalie. He's still relatively young and inexperienced. So, I don't think the GM is going to give up on him. What I think the GM is going to do is add a quality defenseman to the unit and hope that a more defensive minded style of play would put our goalies in a better position to succeed. 

Would the status quo approach to the backstop position be a big risk for the prospects of next year's team? Absolutely, yes. Our GM is more comfortable leaning toward building from within than from the outside, other than tweaking the roster from some outside additions. That is what I think he will do. 

 

[Archie Lee]

50 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

There is no question this is true.

There is also no question that Levi is as prepared to play in the NHL as a rookie as I've seen in Buffalo since Barasso.  

However, regardless of how special the kid is, I look at Ryan Miller, Conor Hellebuyck, and Jake Oettinger, all college goalies who had similar college careers, and all benefitted from at least some time in the AHL.  Miller played very well in Buffalo his rookie year (15 games 2.63 & a .902), but still played 170+ AHL games.  Hellebuyck played 88 AHL games across 2 seasons and Oettinger played 54 across 3 seasons.  The only guy I remember being arguably ready at a younger age was Carter Hart and his results have been mixed in the NHL.  

I’m not saying that Levi would not benefit from AHL time. But, the fact that Miller, Oettinger and Hellebuyck all got AHL time does not mean they needed AHL time. 

[dudacek]

1 minute ago, K-9 said:

And of those four goals allowed at least three of them were of the fluky variety. I don’t recall him getting beat by a great snipe yet. He’s such an athletic goalie; fun to watch. And competitive as hell. Can’t teach that. 

I’m no goalie expert, but when a guy is that athletic, that technically sharp and that mentally focused I find it pretty easy to believe he might be for real.

I’ve been saying he’s their best prospect for months because this is what I’ve been seeing in him.

Now I did not expect him to step in and grab the crease immediately - because goalies don’t do that.

But the ability is there and his mental acuity is rare.

So I’m not going to dismiss it out of hand. 

Kevyn Adams just might know more than me.

 

[PerreaultForever]

25 minutes ago, matter2003 said:

 He is built differently from most 21 year olds. 

How so? 

I agree that KA's plan is what is there now. Don't agree with it, but pretty sure that'll be the plan.

I like Levi. I was one of the first here to say he could be a steal in that trade and said he could eventually be a star goalie. I like him a lot, but young goalies are young goalies and they take time and development and there's many that have been ruined or set back by too much too soon. Lot's of young guys thrive on competition and pressure. That's not unique. I don't see what's so special or different about Levi in that regard. 

I'd be much more comfortable if we were moving forward with a veteran beside him to take half the load like Boston has with Swayman and Ullmark. Comrie ain't it.