Some Fancy Stats Comparisons from the past two seasons

[Brawndo]

 

[ddaryl]

offensively we ticked up a bunch

defensively we regressed

SO at the cost of a more potent offense we took a big step backwards


I know we need a top 4 D-man, and some improvements at 7-8 D-Man, but I really feel our forwards 2 way game is hurting us a bunch

[That Aud Smell]

I wish I had the time, technical skill, and hockey IQ to get screenshots of how the Sabres position themselves when they're not in possession of the puck versus how more balanced (better) teams do it. My sense is that - wherever the Sabres are playing defense (i.e., when they are not possessing the puck) - they are in a Boom/Bust mode. They're defending, but in a super optimistic way that contemplates that, the moment they win the puck, BOOM, they're gone and getting a scoring chance. Something akin to Juergen Klopp's "gen gen press" in international footy.

I don't think it's working. Or ... if it's going to work, we need an elite goalie to help make it work.

[Stoner]

So wouldn't fancy stats say the Sabres had good puck luck this season (in the o zone)? It looks like they overcame mediocre underlying fundamentals by scoring a lot off the rush and being superb at passing. Would be interesting to see if the rush goals declined when the season got to "playoff mode."

[That Aud Smell]

40 minutes ago, PASabreFan said:

So wouldn't fancy stats say the Sabres had good puck luck this season (in the o zone)? It looks like they overcame mediocre underlying fundamentals by scoring a lot off the rush and being superb at passing. Would be interesting to see if the rush goals declined when the season got to "playoff mode."

Puck luck is essentially PDO (which is a team's 5v5 SV% + SH%). Last season, as best I can tell, the Sabres PDO was .985. This season it's .997. So it's a full point (1%) higher this season, but it's still below average (1.00 is the mean). 

They're shooting it better this season (SH%) - like a full 1.5% better than last season (8.5 v. 10), based on what I see at Natural Stat Trick. Also, that 10% SH% is about average for the league. Their SV% at 5v5 is about the same over the past 2 seasons -  and it is effing awful (.899 and .896). (That said, I see a different 5v5 SV% value at hockeyreference.com - this stuff gets confusing for me.)

They need better team defense, without sacrificing much of their explosiveness. And they need better goaltending, for sure.

Edited March 30, 2023 by That Aud Smell

[Randall Flagg]

The Sabres have the shooting talent at a level which makes it plausible that they can continue to outscore their scoring chances - a shot from Tage, Tuch, Skinner, Cozens, Quinn from any particular location is more likely to go in than a shot from the league average shooter. The discrepancy there doesn't worry me too much - these players have been humming at a high shooting % for like 2 years straight now. You see the elite guys do that their whole careers. That doesn't mean lulls aren't possible (which is why historic seasons are important to capitalize on!) but I'm not worried about the offense falling off to a level that makes it hard to win. 

The discrepancy that's most interesting to me is that they can't convert the most zone time in the league into scoring chances. This is what we see when we see the Sabres getting pushed around by the BJs, Islanders etc., pinned to the boards, unable to bring the puck anywhere important. That's what they have to work on offensively 

[Taro T]

2 minutes ago, Randall Flagg said:

The Sabres have the shooting talent at a level which makes it plausible that they can continue to outscore their scoring chances - a shot from Tage, Tuch, Skinner, Cozens, Quinn from any particular location is more likely to go in than a shot from the league average shooter. The discrepancy there doesn't worry me too much - these players have been humming at a high shooting % for like 2 years straight now. You see the elite guys do that their whole careers. That doesn't mean lulls aren't possible (which is why historic seasons are important to capitalize on!) but I'm not worried about the offense falling off to a level that makes it hard to win. 

The discrepancy that's most interesting to me is that they can't convert the most zone time in the league into scoring chances. This is what we see when we see the Sabres getting pushed around by the BJs, Islanders etc., pinned to the boards, unable to bring the puck anywhere important. That's what they have to work on offensively 

In Monday's Habs game, the Sabres held the puck in the Habs zone for well over a minute on at least 3 occassions in the 2nd period.  And yet they were outshot 18-9 for the period.  THAT is a problem.

[Pimlach]

1 hour ago, ddaryl said:

offensively we ticked up a bunch

defensively we regressed

SO at the cost of a more potent offense we took a big step backwards


I know we need a top 4 D-man, and some improvements at 7-8 D-Man, but I really feel our forwards 2 way game is hurting us a bunch

Goaltending 

[That Aud Smell]

42 minutes ago, Randall Flagg said:

The discrepancy that's most interesting to me is that they can't convert the most zone time in the league into scoring chances. This is what we see when we see the Sabres getting pushed around by the BJs, Islanders etc., pinned to the boards, unable to bring the puck anywhere important. That's what they have to work on offensively 

Yo - this is some funking knowledge.

[dudacek]

50 minutes ago, Randall Flagg said:

The discrepancy that's most interesting to me is that they can't convert the most zone time in the league into scoring chances. This is what we see when we see the Sabres getting pushed around by the BJs, Islanders etc., pinned to the boards, unable to bring the puck anywhere important. That's what they have to work on offensively 

The Habs game was so familiar and seems to match the anayltics:

The Sabres spent a lot of time in the Habs zone going Globetrotters, hanging on to the puck for extended periods in the offensive zone and tossing back and forth with ease until they finally freed up someone for a shot (or didn't).

The Habs spent extended periods in the Sabres zone forechecking, cycling, grinding and crashing the crease and throwing pucks at the net.

We inevitably fall into a sports car versus puck-ups scenario on either side of the ice.

[Randall Flagg]

2 hours ago, That Aud Smell said:

I wish I had the time, technical skill, and hockey IQ to get screenshots of how the Sabres position themselves when they're not in possession of the puck versus how more balanced (better) teams do it. My sense is that - wherever the Sabres are playing defense (i.e., when they are not possessing the puck) - they are in a Boom/Bust mode. They're defending, but in a super optimistic way that contemplates that, the moment they win the puck, BOOM, they're gone and getting a scoring chance. Something akin to Juergen Klopp's "gen gen press" in international footy.

I don't think it's working. Or ... if it's going to work, we need an elite goalie to help make it work.

A notable hockey blue check on Twitter had some videos of Ottawa doing the same thing, highlighting why they are struggling. It's definitely a function of youth and style and needs to be reigned in. 

It wouldn't even be so disastrous if the guy with the puck wasn't always hesitating and turning it over while trying to precisely make a high-difficulty pass. Our best skaters will look like buffoons turning the puck over because of this. Yeah, the forwards bailing makes it hard on you. But while you still have time and space, just chuck it out to nobody until the forwards learn to come back and learn when and how to cheat. It's not like cheating the zone should always be forbidden. McDavid, Pastrnak, Malkin, Ovi, these guys do it as often as Skinner but they have learned to optimize it without creating endless turnover-to-scoring-chance-against

Edited March 30, 2023 by Randall Flagg

[Marvin]

2 hours ago, That Aud Smell said:

I wish I had the time, technical skill, and hockey IQ to get screenshots of how the Sabres position themselves when they're not in possession of the puck versus how more balanced (better) teams do it. My sense is that - wherever the Sabres are playing defense (i.e., when they are not possessing the puck) - they are in a Boom/Bust mode. They're defending, but in a super optimistic way that contemplates that, the moment they win the puck, BOOM, they're gone and getting a scoring chance. Something akin to Juergen Klopp's "gen gen press" in international footy.

I don't think it's working. Or ... if it's going to work, we need an elite goalie to help make it work.

This is absolutely how I see this team in the defencive zone.  They need to learn patience and tenacity in the defencive zone.

[pi2000]

It's difficult to teach young offensive minded players to play team defense.   

It requires experience, discipline and trust.   

If one player on the ice is caught out of position, the entire system breaks down.  

They'll get better at it over time, but was disappointed not to see improvement in that area as the season progressed.

At some point Granato and his staff need to make it a priority.

[GASabresIUFAN]

40 minutes ago, pi2000 said:

It's difficult to teach young offensive minded players to play team defense.   

It requires experience, discipline and trust.   

If one player on the ice is caught out of position, the entire system breaks down.  

They'll get better at it over time, but was disappointed not to see improvement in that area as the season progressed.

At some point Granato and his staff need to make it a priority.

It also requires a coaching staff that can teach defense, defensemen who can play defense and goaltenders who can stop a puck at least 90% of the time.  Based on the current team, we don’t have the goalies, enough D who can play D or possibly the right coaching staff.  These issues have now been evident for 2 plus seasons and have yet to be properly addressed by the GM.  

I know the KA/STH meeting gave @Taro T and others hope that KA is serious about winning next season, I’m not sure that true.  Continually saying the time line is 3-5 years from now after 3 years of his tenure doesn’t bode well.  
 

 

[LETSTUCHINGO]

3 hours ago, Taro T said:

In Monday's Habs game, the Sabres held the puck in the Habs zone for well over a minute on at least 3 occassions in the 2nd period.  And yet they were outshot 18-9 for the period.  THAT is a problem.

To me, they get cute at times. Especially when they are pressing. They can hold the puck in the zone very well because of their passing talent (vision), but don't shoot because they're constantly looking for the perfect shot! They NEED to put the puck on net as much as possible and work to rebound. Rousek was in front of the net consistently against the Habs and was rewarded for it! 

[Taro T]

6 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

It also requires a coaching staff that can teach defense, defensemen who can play defense and goaltenders who can stop a puck at least 90% of the time.  Based on the current team, we don’t have the goalies, enough D who can play D or possibly the right coaching staff.  These issues have now been evident for 2 plus seasons and have yet to be properly addressed by the GM.  

I know the KA/STH meeting gave @Taro T and others hope that KA is serious about winning next season, I’m not sure that true.  Continually saying the time line is 3-5 years from now after 3 years of his tenure doesn’t bode well.  
 

 

eAnd again, the 3-5 year timeline is for becoming and remaining a Stanley Cup contender.  That is the overarching goal.  Would also point out that Adams did not state what year 1 was in that 3-5 year timeline.  You can assume it was next year, but don't believe that is necessarily so.

He actually said publicly that yes, they are shooting for the playoffs next season.  (He also actually said, he wants to be in by 10 points so they aren't scrambling like they are this season.)  This is new and different.

[ddaryl]

3 hours ago, Pimlach said:

Goaltending 

I agree... I kind of lump Goaltending into the defense with my comment..... but yeah the Gs have mostly been a let down

 

Hopefully the answer is here with Levi, but we need to upgrade our Gs. UPL is not happening, he is what he is. Woefully incosistent and I don't think at this point he is fixable... Cromrie doesn't look like a keeper either

Edited March 30, 2023 by ddaryl

[Marvin]

Has anyone else looked at highlights of Comrie's games in Winnipeg for comparison.  I wonder if part of his problem here is that he went from a veteran, defencively responsible team to one which routinely yields great scoring chances from prime areas.  Sometimes, he looks the hockey equivalent of shell-shocked out there.

[Taro T]

32 minutes ago, ddaryl said:

I agree... I kind of lump Goaltending into the defense with my comment..... but yeah the Gs have mostly been a let down

 

Hopefully the answer is here with Levi, but we need to upgrade our Gs. UPL is not happening, he is what he is. Woefully incosistent and I don't think at this point he is fixable... Cromrie doesn't look like a keeper either

While UPL probably doesn't come around, he's 23 and can be far from a finished product.  He's cleaned up a lot of his game this past year or so, but still leaves quite a bit to be hoped for.  Still say a big part of (of not the biggest part of) his issues is the mental side of the game.  He doesn't expect to make the save.  He's gotten better at things like he is no longer afraid he's going to leave the 5 hole open so he leaves over his shoulders open.  Those goals have in large part gone away. And those were IMHO a vestige of the strangeness of how his legs felt post double hip surgeries oh so many years ago.

He reacts well, but doesn't read the play as well as he should.  Meaning, he seems to have to always expect the shot is coming from the player with the puck on his stick even though it's obvious the puck will get passed before the shot.  Which would be an indication that he doesn't have full confidence yet that he'll be where he needs to be to make the save.  If that is his issue, it also would explain why his rebound control is bad.  Guys that aren't confident they'll make the save can't be worrying about where they're putting the rebound.

And if it is largely in his head, he could have the light switch go off and be significantly better pretty much overnight.

As said above, he probably doesn't come around and become more than just a backup or an AHLer.  But he has the physical tools to be able to do it.  He isn't Ray Emery who was never going to be able to stop a shot when he has to go across the crease because his side to side movement was horrible.

[pi2000]

49 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

It also requires a coaching staff that can teach defense, defensemen who can play defense and goaltenders who can stop a puck at least 90% of the time.  Based on the current team, we don’t have the goalies, enough D who can play D or possibly the right coaching staff.  These issues have now been evident for 2 plus seasons and have yet to be properly addressed by the GM.  

I know the KA/STH meeting gave @Taro T and others hope that KA is serious about winning next season, I’m not sure that true.  Continually saying the time line is 3-5 years from now after 3 years of his tenure doesn’t bode well.  
 

 

Goaltending is the most obvious issue, with depth on defense also a concern.    That said, I believe they have more to gain by committing to sound team defense rather than upgrading the depth on the blueline.  

I do agree the coaching staff needs to implement a defensive system which the rostered players are capable of executing.     I believe Granato and his staff are knowledgeable enough they should have some effective defensive systems in their playbook.     It's not rocket science.

Is the coaching staff putting an emphasis on team defense during practice and team meetings?  Maybe?  Maybe not?   

Does Donny hold players accountable for losing their defensive assignments?  Probably not?  He doesn't aggressively bench players, but I don't know what else goes on in the room.

Are the players holding each other accountable?   They all seem to like each other and get along, maybe a bit too much such that they're reluctant to point fingers.    Sometimes calling out a teammate (behind closed doors) is a good thing. 

 

[matter2003]

12 hours ago, PASabreFan said:

So wouldn't fancy stats say the Sabres had good puck luck this season (in the o zone)? It looks like they overcame mediocre underlying fundamentals by scoring a lot off the rush and being superb at passing. Would be interesting to see if the rush goals declined when the season got to "playoff mode."

Nothing I watch offensively suggests any luck to me...they make other teams look silly quite a bit on defense and at times look like the Globetrotters on Ice.

[dudacek]

28 minutes ago, matter2003 said:

Nothing I watch offensively suggests any luck to me...they make other teams look silly quite a bit on defense and at times look like the Globetrotters on Ice.

Yep, they’re definitely a talented hockey team.

 

8 hours ago, pi2000 said:

 

Does Donny hold players accountable for losing their defensive assignments?  Probably not?  He doesn't aggressively bench players, but I don't know what else goes on in the room. 

 

This is actually came up today.

He told the media they will never see him throw a player under the bus during a presser, but he’s told “every single one of them” they aren’t pulling their weight and they need to be better.

I think our coach is smarter and more competitive than this board gives him credit it for.

[PerreaultForever]

Ya, pretty much supports the eye test. Offensive much better, defense the same or worse. 

Just out of curiosity, are the teams with the best D stats also the ones at or near the top of the standings?

 

[Doohicksie]

14 hours ago, Pimlach said:

Goaltending 

I lived in Detroit in the 1990s and they had a similar problem.  The team was pretty good but goaltending let them down.  I remember the fans chasing Tim Cheveldae with boos night in, night out.  They wore him out, playing him in 72 (!) games.  Look at the Wings goalie states from 1991-92:

In 1993-94, not much better, but they saw promise in rookie Chris Osgood and gave him all they could:

The following year they brought in 31-year-old Mike Vernon to mentor Ozzy and made it to the Cup finals in 1995 and the conference finals in 1996:

 

They finally won it all in 1997 and 1998.  Note that by 1997-98 Vernon was gone.  Ozzy ended up playing in the NHL for 17 years, 14 with the Wings.

 

I guess the point is... we might have our Osgood in Devon Levi.  I think it's important to bring in a Mike Vernon.  And my other point is that once the goalie situation was settled there was a very long period of success for the Wings.  So you're right, @Pimlach:  Goaltending.

Edited March 31, 2023 by Doohickie

[matter2003]

9 hours ago, Doohickie said:

I lived in Detroit in the 1990s and they had a similar problem.  The team was pretty good but goaltending let them down.  I remember the fans chasing Tim Cheveldae with boos night in, night out.  They wore him out, playing him in 72 (!) games.  Look at the Wings goalie states from 1991-92:

In 1993-94, not much better, but they saw promise in rookie Chris Osgood and gave him all they could:

The following year they brought in 31-year-old Mike Vernon to mentor Ozzy and made it to the Cup finals in 1995 and the conference finals in 1996:

 

They finally won it all in 1997 and 1998.  Note that by 1997-98 Vernon was gone.  Ozzy ended up playing in the NHL for 17 years, 14 with the Wings.

 

I guess the point is... we might have our Osgood in Devon Levi.  I think it's important to bring in a Mike Vernon.  And my other point is that once the goalie situation was settled there was a very long period of success for the Wings.  So you're right, @Pimlach:  Goaltending.

 

It's crazy they had under a 3.00 GAA with under .900 save percentage...they must have been exceptional at blocking shots and preventing shots.