My Take on B&G Insights with Kevyn Adams - 03-28-23

[ShadowOnTheDoor]

I would have much rather heard 2-3 years as opposed to 3-5. That's my biggest fear - that they cling to this youth, development, pipeline, patience, etc. etc. etc. for too long. If I'm Tuch (26 years-old) and Thompson (25) in particular, I'm not too keen on a 3-5 year plan. 

[Randall Flagg]

12 hours ago, dudacek said:

Actual question, not rhetorical:

who were those guys for the young Penguins, Capitals, Hawks, Lightning and Avalanche teams, the build we seem to be trying to emulate?

Can it be Dahlin and Cozens and Thompson evolving into those players? Did Toews and Backstrom and Sid and McKinnon drive the bus the whole way, or did somebody else take them to the doorstep and pass over the keys?

I'd like to dive in and find out, but we are going on a trip tomorrow so I don't think I'll have time. I think a more interesting question would be to check those teams, in the years they were finding their way, and look for things like

a.) our home record with blue and gold
b.) our home record overall, relative to the abilities of our team when they are playing well
c.) the way we fell apart when March hit and couldn't seem to get out of it except for 3 nights towards the end of it
d.) the way we play against bad teams during this span (PHI, MTL, CBJ) 

I'm sure some of those teams had issues of their own, but I'd be surprised if we saw this degree of struggle at this particular stage of development/level of ability in general. It was alarming for all of us to watch. I'm not sure if those teams had similar alarming situations. I know the Caps were BAD for 2 years with Ovi, before making the playoffs in the 3rd. I know the Pens were bad with Crosby for one year, before making the playoffs. The Hawks had a 4 year stretch in the doldrums before drafting Kane, jumping to 88 points immediately, then making the conference finals. Tampa was strange - they got Hedman and Stamkos, then hit 80 points, made an ECF, but then had a 2 year reset missing the playoffs before starting this run. Colorado was similar as well, they had MacKinnon and Rantanen and Landeskog, made the playoffs right away, but at one point became the worst team in the league (with one of the worst seasons in history) which got them Makar. That would have been something to go through. But, they made the playoffs the next year after that. Right away.

Bad teams are bad teams. we have a good team that crapped its pants in a horrifying way and can't play in certain uniforms, and can't seem to shake either of those things. I'm not sure that you can find something quite like this in those teams' histories, especially considering the 12 year baggage we have, the first time GM/entire coaching staff, and so few playoff runs for the vets to tell us about. Which is why I said that something is missing (I won't even go as far as saying I know what that thing is)

[Weave]

13 hours ago, dudacek said:

Actual question, not rhetorical:

who were those guys for the young Penguins, Capitals, Hawks, Lightning and Avalanche teams, the build we seem to be trying to emulate?

Can it be Dahlin and Cozens and Thompson evolving into those players? Did Toews and Backstrom and Sid and McKinnon drive the bus the whole way, or did somebody else take them to the doorstep and pass over the keys?

I’ve been through the Crosby rookie year roster several times when making my point that the biggest failure on tanking was not giving Jack and Sam a significant veteran presence.  Crosby walked into a room with Malkin already there, but more importantly that team was stacked with vets who were stars or near stars in their prime. There were a bunch of been there, done that surrounding Sid.  Yes, they were has beens, but the veteran lessons would have been substantial.

I can’t speak to the Hawks, Lighting or Avs, and don’t really care enough to dig in to be honest. But Ovie was already considered an old man and had a veteran cast with him when the Caps really started humming.

[Pimlach]

They don't have to copy any one team exactly, every situation is different.  We happen to have few vets, and even less with playoff/Cup experience. Girgensons and Skinner are anomalies that happen to be on the same team.  

It seems only logical that a few key vets would help, but finding the right ones, at the right price is the key.   Certainly Adams missed on the Stahl and Hall pick ups, but they played with the Jack/Sam core - the current Sabres Team is much different right now.  

Edited March 30, 2023 by Pimlach

[French Collection]

I spent a little more time looking at the rosters of the Cup winners since 2009 (Penguins).

Penguins ‘09, ‘16, ‘17

Drafted core: Crosby, Malkin, Letang, Fleury and Murray for 2 Cups.

Key adds: Kunitz all 3 and Kessel for 2. Side note, Kunitz went to Tampa for the 17/18 season.

Blackhawks ‘10, ‘13, ‘15

Drafted core: Toews, Kane, Keith, Seabrook, Crawford (2), Hjalmarsson

Key adds: Hossa, Sharp

Bruins ‘11

Drafted core: Bergeron, Marchand, Krejci

Key adds: Chara, Thomas, Recchi

Kings ‘12, ‘14

Drafted core: Kopitar, Doughty, Brown, Quick

Key adds: Williams, Richards, Carter and Gaborik (1)

Capitals ‘18

Drafted core: Ovechkin, Backstrom, Carlson, Kuznetsov, Holtby . Drafted keys: Wilson, Orlov, Burakovsky

Key adds: Oshie, Orpik

Blues ‘19

Drafted core: Tarasenko, Pietrangelo, Perron, Binnington. Drafted keys: Schwartz, Dunn, Parayko

Key adds: O’Reilly, Schenn, Bouwmeester

Lightning ‘20, ‘21

Drafted core: Stamkos, Kucherov, Hedman, Vasilevskiy, Point. Drafted Keys: Killorn, Cirelli, Palat (now with improving NJD),Gourde, Cernak

Key adds: McDonagh, Maroon, Sergachev, Coleman, Goodrow

Avalanche ‘22

Drafted core: McKinnon, Makar, Rantanen, Landeskog

Key adds: Kadri, Toews, Burakovsky, Nichushkin Side note: Jack Johnson has spent significant time with Pens and Kings.

 

Conclusions, nothing we don’t already know.

Drafting, developing and keeping a core group is important. 
Adding key pieces puts a team over the top, these come from trades and UFA routes. I didn’t take a count but not many of these guys are trade deadline moves. Pieces that grow, lead and bond with the core.

The Blues are the outlier here in my opinion, they caught fire at the right time. The other teams have had long term success.