Targetting Defencemen for 2023-4

[Marvin]

Who are some players we could try to acquire in the off-season who are either UFAs or reasonably priced in a trade?  If by trade, what would the price be?  If UFA, what would be an acceptable contract?

My shopping list includes a #4D and others who are at least decent 3rd pairing players.  I want the Bryson, Pilut, and Clague quality defencemen to be no higher than #9D if at all possible.

[Flashsabre]

Guys like Gavrikov,  Dumba and Graves will be on the UFA market.

As far as trade I have no idea who will be available. Some teams will have to make moves for cap reasons.

Gavrikov and Graves would be just what the doctor ordered. Big, defensively inclined dmen. But they won’t be cheap. Gavrikov will have plenty of suitors.

[Huckleberry]

56 minutes ago, Flashsabre said:

Guys like Gavrikov,  Dumba and Graves will be on the UFA market.

As far as trade I have no idea who will be available. Some teams will have to make moves for cap reasons.

Gavrikov and Graves would be just what the doctor ordered. Big, defensively inclined dmen. But they won’t be cheap. Gavrikov will have plenty of suitors.

Not seeing the appeal in him.

[mjd1001]

Need at least 1, maybe 2 guys that are '2nd pair' quality if possible. One for the actualy 2nd pair, one for the 3rd pair.  In addition, you really have to try to find one, maybe 2 guys who are potentially future NHL guys to put in Rochester.  That might be tough to do, but it should be a priority also.

[Flashsabre]

21 minutes ago, Huckleberry said:

Not seeing the appeal in him.

Someone posted the advanced analytics when he was on the ice for the Kings since the trade. It was ridiculous. He is a defensive impact player, something this team is DESPERATE for. Let’s Dahlin or Power let loose, improves the PK. Plays a physical game.

[GASabresIUFAN]

The guy I’d start with is Orlov. He’ll be 32 next season. He is a Cup winner, has succeeded on up tempo teams and on trapping teams.  He is having another good season and since traded to Boston has 10 pts in 7 games.  
 

I’d give him 4 years at 5.25 and see what happens.  He’d be this team’s Teppo.

[GoPuckYourself]

2 hours ago, Marvin said:

Who are some players we could try to acquire in the off-season who are either UFAs or reasonably priced in a trade?  If by trade, what would the price be?  If UFA, what would be an acceptable contract?

My shopping list includes a #4D and others who are at least decent 3rd pairing players.  I want the Bryson, Pilut, and Clague quality defencemen to be no higher than #9D if at all possible.

Why are we looking at reasonably priced? I'd suspect next year we should be going all in imo. 

[Marvin]

2 minutes ago, GoPuckYourself said:

Why are we looking at reasonably priced? I'd suspect next year we should be going all in imo. 

That is in said person's opinion.  For instance, on Sabres Fan on HFBoards thought that a fair price for Chychrun was 2023 1st, Savoie, and Kulich because GMKA is required to pay the piper as penance for not overpaying for defencemen in the summer or something like that.  Another fan on another Sabres board recommends a 6x$6M deal for Gavrikov.  YMMV.

Although it is an imperfect system, I look at average salaries every 60 defencemen +/- 5 players to establish the minimum and maximum salaries for a given pairing level, rescaled by the season in which the contracts were signed.  I also look at the approximate performance curves by age and correlate them against trends from the players' 3 years previous to their contract year so that I can estimate how the players' quality will deteriorate over the lifetime of the contract.  I also evaluate the type of game each player plays.  I do this all in my head by eyeing the data, by making quick-and-dirty estimates, and by overall feel of trends rather than what I would like to do, which is actually grind out the numbers.  I evaluate prospects by what fans of other teams said about them before they were drafted or acquired.  I double check these against some very knowledgeable friends.

[TheAud]

2 hours ago, Marvin said:

That is in said person's opinion.  For instance, on Sabres Fan on HFBoards thought that a fair price for Chychrun was 2023 1st, Savoie, and Kulich because GMKA is required to pay the piper as penance for not overpaying for defencemen in the summer or something like that.  Another fan on another Sabres board recommends a 6x$6M deal for Gavrikov.  YMMV.

Although it is an imperfect system, I look at average salaries every 60 defencemen +/- 5 players to establish the minimum and maximum salaries for a given pairing level, rescaled by the season in which the contracts were signed.  I also look at the approximate performance curves by age and correlate them against trends from the players' 3 years previous to their contract year so that I can estimate how the players' quality will deteriorate over the lifetime of the contract.  I also evaluate the type of game each player plays.  I do this all in my head by eyeing the data, by making quick-and-dirty estimates, and by overall feel of trends rather than what I would like to do, which is actually grind out the numbers.  I evaluate prospects by what fans of other teams said about them before they were drafted or acquired.  I double check these against some very knowledgeable friends.

...and lastly

 

(JK, I like how you describe the factors considered and can imagine modeling all that...)

[Marvin]

28 minutes ago, TheAud said:

...and lastly

 

(JK, I like how you describe the factors considered and can imagine modeling all that...)

That's one of the "Road" movies, right?

[Pimlach]

14 hours ago, mjd1001 said:

Need at least 1, maybe 2 guys that are '2nd pair' quality if possible. One for the actualy 2nd pair, one for the 3rd pair.  In addition, you really have to try to find one, maybe 2 guys who are potentially future NHL guys to put in Rochester.  That might be tough to do, but it should be a priority also.

If they pick up two 2nd pair quality players they could be special.  
 

Ryan Johnson and Clagg can go to Rochester 
 

 

Edited March 13, 2023 by Pimlach

[PerreaultForever]

Ideally I want 2. Or at least I'd try for 2. 

Orlov and Conor Clifton. I think it would be hard to get Orlov. He might even go back to Washington, but I'd make an offer and see. Clifton I know many people will go wtf? but I've watched Boston games for years and Clifton has flown under the radar and no matter who they bring in he ends up staying in their top 6. He's not that big but he's fast enough to play with our style, he hits - a lot - and he's tough. He's due for a raise and I don't think the Bruins can find a way to pay him. It's a Krug type situation and 3-4 million with term and he's a perfect partner for Power as the #4. He's similar to Lybushkin, but better. 

With any FAs you have to consider the "want to be here" thing and you have to pounce on players at the right moment and overpay them. This is Clifton's payday moment and he's a perfect fit. If they win the cup it's even better as he will have tasted that and be more likely to look out for #1 so to speak and be willing to go to a different team and one not guaranteed to be a winner right away.

[dudacek]

Brawndo has pitched Damon Severson on here before as a UFA, which is someone I’d take a look at, RD, just 28 and he’s a solid top 4 guy who could around a while. It will probably take a big contract though.

I don’t like Matt Dumba as much, but he is also available and fits the same profile.

More defence-first guys include Carson Soucy, Scott Mayfield and Radko Gudas.

One guy I might kick the tires on as more of a stop-gap James Patrick/Teppo pickup is Eric Johnson: Stanley Cup ring, RD, former 1st overall pick - might be a good guy for Power to lean on.

[dudacek]

I’m thinking what’s more likely though is that we trade for a blueline version of Greenway: I’m talking a younger veteran who some team may have to move on from for cap reasons, and our team sees as having some untapped potential.

One guy that immediately sticks out is Will Borgen. I mean not sure if he’s available, but he fits the profile of the type of guy I could see them shopping for.

 

[LGR4GM]

5 hours ago, dudacek said:

Brawndo has pitched Damon Severson on here before as a UFA, which is someone I’d take a look at, RD, just 28 and he’s a solid top 4 guy who could around a while. It will probably take a big contract though.

I don’t like Matt Dumba as much, but he is also available and fits the same profile.

More defence-first guys include Carson Soucy, Scott Mayfield and Radko Gudas.

One guy I might kick the tires on as more of a stop-gap James Patrick/Teppo pickup is Eric Johnson: Stanley Cup ring, RD, former 1st overall pick - might be a good guy for Power to lean on.

0 instead in Johnson. None. 

Severson and Soucy I would look at for sure. 

[sabrefanday1]

Obviously it is not easy to put together a really good defense or teams like Edmonton and Toronto who have been trying fior years would be better then they are now.  Truth is we have a far better core of good young d-men then most teams but it will take time. KA is not going to add bodies just for the sake of adding new bodies into the imix...tough to call who KA may pursue but I do trust his judgement (or I guess we have to). Goaltending will also be an interesting situation. Hopefully Levi will come and save the day but he is young and goalies typically take longer to be NHL ready...

[Stoner]

6 hours ago, dudacek said:

I’m thinking what’s more likely though is that we trade for a blueline version of Greenway: I’m talking a younger veteran who some team may have to move on from for cap reasons, and our team sees as having some untapped potential.

One guy that immediately sticks out is Will Borgen. I mean not sure if he’s available, but he fits the profile of the type of guy I could see them shopping for.

 

Because clearly that would be a sign the Sabres are committed to winning.

[North Buffalo]

I'd kick the tires on Mayfield... went to a number of games in Bridgeport when he was in AHL and he has a booming shot from the point... tough and good sense... Mule type with a better shot.  

[Pimlach]

16 hours ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

The guy I’d start with is Orlov. He’ll be 32 next season. He is a Cup winner, has succeeded on up tempo teams and on trapping teams.  He is having another good season and since traded to Boston has 10 pts in 7 games.  
 

I’d give him 4 years at 5.25 and see what happens.  He’d be this team’s Teppo.

Sure, good player.  But I think he is the kind of guy that says no to Buffalo.  AND I just don't think KA will pay that much for a 32 year old.  

9 hours ago, dudacek said:

I’m thinking what’s more likely though is that we trade for a blueline version of Greenway: I’m talking a younger veteran who some team may have to move on from for cap reasons, and our team sees as having some untapped potential.

One guy that immediately sticks out is Will Borgen. I mean not sure if he’s available, but he fits the profile of the type of guy I could see them shopping for.

 

He is not going to improve the defense that much.  He is another 5/6/7 depth piece.  

[dudacek]

3 minutes ago, Pimlach said:

 

He is not going to improve the defense that much.  He is another 5/6/7 depth piece.  

I don't that's the case any more based on his play this year. Don't see him as top 4, but he's an emerged as an every day player and shown signs there might be more in there.

Edited March 13, 2023 by dudacek

[LGR4GM]

4 minutes ago, dudacek said:

I don't that's the case any more based on his play this year. Don't see him as top 4, but he's an emerged as an every day player and shown signs there might be more in there.

He's 26, idk how much more there is. He's a 5 most likely and probably can be a 4 for short periods of time. 

[Taro T]

9 hours ago, dudacek said:

I’m thinking what’s more likely though is that we trade for a blueline version of Greenway: I’m talking a younger veteran who some team may have to move on from for cap reasons, and our team sees as having some untapped potential.

One guy that immediately sticks out is Will Borgen. I mean not sure if he’s available, but he fits the profile of the type of guy I could see them shopping for.

 

Could see that as it does seem to be their primary modus operandi.

Regardless of whether they bring in a name guy or an under the radar one for the 4, expect he'll have a bit of a learning curve getting used to the way that Granato has them play.  Which is another part of what was frustrating about them not landing the guy they'd hoped to pencil into the top 4 at the deadline.  Not just the lack of a boost this season, but had they landed Chychrun he'd've had 20+ games in this system (even more if they sneak into the playoffs) before we get to October.  He'd've been ready to hit the ground running.

The question though for figuring out who they do go after this summer is who has played for Granato before?  They seem to have an attraction to guys that they know can play in Donnie's system because they have in the past.  Figure out who those guys are and that's likely where the smart money will be betting.  The guy you mentioned, Borgen, played a few games for Granato here.  They'd know what they're getting.  Not sure he's a 4, but if he were playing with Power he could probably fake it well enough.  (Kind of like Samuelsson fakes being a 2 well enough playing with Dahlin.)

[Pimlach]

3 hours ago, sabrefanday1 said:

Obviously it is not easy to put together a really good defense or teams like Edmonton and Toronto who have been trying fior years would be better then they are now.  Truth is we have a far better core of good young d-men then most teams but it will take time. KA is not going to add bodies just for the sake of adding new bodies into the imix...tough to call who KA may pursue but I do trust his judgement (or I guess we have to). Goaltending will also be an interesting situation. Hopefully Levi will come and save the day but he is young and goalies typically take longer to be NHL ready...

KA has a head-start of Rasmus Dahlin and Owen Power on his blueline, so you are correct, they are a far better core than most teams will ever get. 

Hoping for a rookie goalie to come in and be Hasek is not a plan.  

He has a ton of forward prospects, many of whom will never get a shot  If he cannot improve the team defense from the bottom of the league to at least upper middle in one more off-season than he is not going to be the guy.  

No passes for him this off season.  Time to take a jump forward.  New Jersey did it.  Ottawa might be doing it.  

[thewookie1]

14 minutes ago, Taro T said:

Could see that as it does seem to be their primary modus operandi.

Regardless of whether they bring in a name guy or an under the radar one for the 4, expect he'll have a bit of a learning curve getting used to the way that Granato has them play.  Which is another part of what was frustrating about them not landing the guy they'd hoped to pencil into the top 4 at the deadline.  Not just the lack of a boost this season, but had they landed Chychrun he'd've had 20+ games in this system (even more if they sneak into the playoffs) before we get to October.  He'd've been ready to hit the ground running.

The question though for figuring out who they do go after this summer is who has played for Granato before?  They seem to have an attraction to guys that they know can play in Donnie's system because they have in the past.  Figure out who those guys are and that's likely where the smart money will be betting.  The guy you mentioned, Borgen, played a few games for Granato here.  They'd know what they're getting.  Not sure he's a 4, but if he were playing with Power he could probably fake it well enough.  (Kind of like Samuelsson fakes being a 2 well enough playing with Dahlin.)

I think like us, Adams was also rather pissed about how the Chychrun thing went down.

[mjd1001]

As far as a 'reclamation' project, what does anyone think of Logan Stanley on the backend from Winnipeg?

Former first round pick, 24 years old, 6'7" tall and 230 lbs.  Hits. Gets PK time.  Requested a trade from Winnipeg recently.  Has had a few injuries, and has shown 'inconsistent' play.  He's from Kitchener so only about 1.5-2 hours away (kinda a local guy)

I remember being bored and watching Winnipeg play St. Louis a couple months ago and he stood out as a pretty good player, yet he gets benched every once in a while.

Big Physical guy who at one point had enough talent to justify a first round pick, with SOME nhl time.  His contract is up but he is an RFA.  Might be one guy (not the ONLY guy though) that I'd be happy to see brought in to fight for a roster spot, possibly a 2nd pair spot with some development.

Edited March 13, 2023 by mjd1001