Is UPL Still the Plan

[pi2000]

1 hour ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

Hopefully, the plan is for all 3 Sabres goalies to retire or play elsewhere next season.

10 worst teams on home ice; goals allowed above expected..

35.04 Sharks
31.39 Sabres
21.39 BlueJackets
16.54 Canucks
14.94 Flames
14.21 Blackhawks
11.98 Kraken
10.07 RedWings
7.69 Flyers
6.9 Canadiens

31 goals above expected is almost a goal per game.    That's insane, you simply can't win with that type of goaltending.

However, on the road Sabres rank 12th best, giving up 7 fewer goals than expected...

22.41 Kings
20.73 Canucks
14.48 Panthers
14.31 Oilers
9.26 Blues
8.54 RedWings
7.42 Kraken
7.21 BlueJackets
5.41 Senators
4.32 Penguins
3.97 Coyotes
2.49 Ducks
1.93 Hurricanes
0.81 Flames
-0.65 JoseSharks
-2.73 Flyers
-3.22 BayLightning
-3.62 Capitals
-3.71 Jets
-6.41 Blackhawks
-6.73 Sabres
-7.59 GoldenKnights
-8.49 Canadiens
-10.81 Predators
-11.65 MapleLeafs
-12.43 Islanders
-13.69 Devils
-13.98 Avalanche
-15.9 Stars
-16.95 Rangers
-18 Wild
-23.51 Bruins

 

I just can't wrap my head around why goaltending has been so abysmal at home vs the road.

[steveoath]

Saros or demko if we could. And if they want UPL as part of the deal, so be it. Would prefer to include Comrie, but atvthis stage he hasn't exactly increased his value league wide. 

 

 

 

 

[Eleven]

2 hours ago, Brawndo said:

Would this be the same guy who read a book stating that NFL Teams should draft a Quarterback every year and He feels the same should be done with goalies and happens to own the team? 

I doubt it.  https://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/buf/draft.htm

[Marvin]

1 hour ago, pi2000 said:

10 worst teams on home ice; goals allowed above expected..

35.04 Sharks
31.39 Sabres
21.39 BlueJackets
16.54 Canucks
14.94 Flames
14.21 Blackhawks
11.98 Kraken
10.07 RedWings
7.69 Flyers
6.9 Canadiens

31 goals above expected is almost a goal per game.    That's insane, you simply can't win with that type of goaltending.

However, on the road Sabres rank 12th best, giving up 7 fewer goals than expected...

22.41 Kings
20.73 Canucks
14.48 Panthers
14.31 Oilers
9.26 Blues
8.54 RedWings
7.42 Kraken
7.21 BlueJackets
5.41 Senators
4.32 Penguins
3.97 Coyotes
2.49 Ducks
1.93 Hurricanes
0.81 Flames
-0.65 JoseSharks
-2.73 Flyers
-3.22 BayLightning
-3.62 Capitals
-3.71 Jets
-6.41 Blackhawks
-6.73 Sabres
-7.59 GoldenKnights
-8.49 Canadiens
-10.81 Predators
-11.65 MapleLeafs
-12.43 Islanders
-13.69 Devils
-13.98 Avalanche
-15.9 Stars
-16.95 Rangers
-18 Wild
-23.51 Bruins

 

I just can't wrap my head around why goaltending has been so abysmal at home vs the road.

Thanks for your goalkeeper stats.

[Brawndo]

1 hour ago, Eleven said:

I doubt it.  https://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/buf/draft.htm

Pegula actually did say this on Sabres Hockey Hotline before He bought the Bills 

[Eleven]

8 minutes ago, Brawndo said:

Pegula actually did say this on Sabres Hockey Hotline before He bought the Bills 

That's fine; many, many people have said it over many, many years.

[Drag0nDan]

20 hours ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

Samuelsson has 102 NHL games under his belt.   

Dahlin is our most experienced blueliner @ 342 games.  Bush is second at 266, Joki 3rd at 260, Bryson 4th at 164, and Stillman 5th at 148.  Next is Mattias at 102, followed by Clague (88 games) and Power. 

Not exactly a heaping load of experience.  Bush is the only one with playoff experience totaling 7 games.   

I counted his AHL games as... "pro" but yeah.  LOT of minutes for a young group.

[Taro T]

3 minutes ago, Drag0nDan said:

I counted his AHL games as... "pro" but yeah.  LOT of minutes for a young group.

Such a difference between the NHL and the AHL.  Pilut is serviceable at the AHL level.

[Flashsabre]

 

[pi2000]

Updated team goalkeeping stats....

10 worst teams on home ice; total goals allowed above expected.   

35.19,Buffalo Sabres
34.98,San Jose Sharks
21.39,Columbus Blue Jackets
17.98,Vancouver Canucks
14.94,Calgary Flames
14.21,Chicago Blackhawks
12.72,Detroit Red Wings
11.98,Seattle Kraken
6.07,Philadelphia Flyers
5.93,Montreal Canadiens

We have a new team holding down the  #1 spot.. they literally jumped the sharks 🙂 

To put this in perspective, they're 135% worse than the 5th worst team... and 493% worse than the 10th worst team.

I mean... c'mon, it's unfathomably historically bad.   

Next, I'll look at the some recent historical stats just to see how bad this really is.  

Edited March 22, 2023 by pi2000

[Thorner]

57 minutes ago, pi2000 said:

Updated team goalkeeping stats....

10 worst teams on home ice; total goals allowed above expected.   

35.19,Buffalo Sabres
34.98,San Jose Sharks
21.39,Columbus Blue Jackets
17.98,Vancouver Canucks
14.94,Calgary Flames
14.21,Chicago Blackhawks
12.72,Detroit Red Wings
11.98,Seattle Kraken
6.07,Philadelphia Flyers
5.93,Montreal Canadiens

We have a new team holding down the  #1 spot.. they literally jumped the sharks 🙂 

To put this in perspective, they're 135% worse than the 5th worst team... and 493% worse than the 10th worst team.

I mean... c'mon, it's unfathomably historically bad.   

Next, I'll look at the some recent historical stats just to see how bad this really is.  

[pi2000]

Over the previous 6 seasons... 

GAAE - Goals Allowed Above Expected
+-----------------------+--------+
| team                  | GAAE   |
+-----------------------+--------+
| Buffalo Sabres        | 209.30 |
| Detroit Red Wings     | 162.63 |
| Philadelphia Flyers   | 161.32 |
| Ottawa Senators       | 159.94 |
| New Jersey Devils     | 155.84 |
| Montreal Canadiens    | 132.15 |
| San Jose Sharks       | 130.85 |
| Minnesota Wild        | 130.20 |
| Columbus Blue Jackets | 128.12 |
| Edmonton Oilers       |  97.92 |
| Chicago Blackhawks    |  97.76 |
| Vancouver Canucks     |  81.63 |
| Florida Panthers      |  74.66 |
| Seattle Kraken        |  71.88 |
| Calgary Flames        |  67.99 |
| Toronto Maple Leafs   |  57.08 |
| Pittsburgh Penguins   |  51.51 |
| Tampa Bay Lightning   |  42.22 |
| Washington Capitals   |  32.61 |
| Los Angeles Kings     |  28.41 |
| Arizona Coyotes       |  26.60 |
| St Louis Blues        |  22.21 |
| Colorado Avalanche    |  21.67 |
| Vegas Golden Knights  |  15.27 |
| Dallas Stars          |  -9.16 |
| Carolina Hurricanes   | -11.38 |
| Anaheim Ducks         | -18.05 |
| Boston Bruins         | -25.69 |
| Nashville Predators   | -36.97 |
| New York Rangers      | -46.75 |
| Winnipeg Jets         | -58.59 |
| New York Islanders    | -58.65 |
+-----------------------+--------+
32 rows in set (0.00 sec)

 

Sabres since 2010:

+---------+-------+----------------+
| year    | GAAE  | team           |
+---------+-------+----------------+
| 2010-11 |  7.36 | Buffalo Sabres | - Miller / Enroth
| 2011-12 |  5.51 | Buffalo Sabres | - Miller / Enroth
| 2013    | -3.78 | Buffalo Sabres | - Miller / Enroth
| 2013-14 | -4.79 | Buffalo Sabres | - Miller / Enroth
| 2014-15 | 18.28 | Buffalo Sabres | - Enroth / Neuvirth
| 2015-16 |  3.30 | Buffalo Sabres | - Johnson / Ullmark / Lehner
| 2016-17 | -3.80 | Buffalo Sabres | - Lehner / Nillson
| 2017-18 | 41.06 | Buffalo Sabres | - Lehner / Johnson
| 2018-19 | 39.71 | Buffalo Sabres | - Hutton / Ullmark
| 2019-20 | 25.44 | Buffalo Sabres | - Hutton / Ullmark
| 2020-21 | 32.99 | Buffalo Sabres | - Ullmark / Hutton / Tokarski
| 2021-22 | 41.64 | Buffalo Sabres | - Anderson / Tokarski / Dell
| 2022-23 | 28.46 | Buffalo Sabres | - UPL / Anderson / Comrie
+---------+-------+----------------+
13 rows in set (0.00 sec)

 

Edited March 23, 2023 by pi2000

[SABRES 0311]

6 hours ago, Flashsabre said:

 

Absolutely no reason he should be penciled in. I don’t care what the fancy stat witchcraft says or how he did in a random segment of a random game.

Except maybe a lack of options?

[GASabresIUFAN]

8 minutes ago, SABRES 0311 said:

Absolutely no reason he should be penciled in. I don’t care what the fancy stat witchcraft says or how he did in a random segment of a random game.

I don't think we even have to look at fancy stats to see that he isn't an NHL goalie right now and probably will never be one.  Just compare his AHL numbers to any of his peers in the NHL.  His numbers in the A are worse than everyone I've looked up.  From Jake Allen to Markstrom to Husso to Binnington to Logan Thompson to Stuart Skinner.  Skinner is the closest I've seen to UPL's lousy numbers, but that was only one season, not 4.  Skinner's last two AHL campaigns featured save % of .914 and .920.  UPL has never come close to those numbers.  

 

[Marvin]

UPL is 24.  He should not have played a game in the NHL yet.  Maybe UPL works in a few years.

[GASabresIUFAN]

1 hour ago, Marvin said:

UPL is 24.  He should not have played a game in the NHL yet.  Maybe UPL works in a few years.

Of the 21 guys I looked up 13 became NHL starters at 25-27.  2 others at 24.  Only 3 didn't play in the A, but all 3 came from Eastern Europe and had considerable pro experience there.  So it's still possible UPL becomes a viable starter in the NHL, but he clearly isn't one yet, and had he been playing for a competent franchise, the only NHL experience he'd have is as an occasional injury call-up.

[Quint]

10 hours ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

I don't think we even have to look at fancy stats to see that he isn't an NHL goalie right now and probably will never be one.  Just compare his AHL numbers to any of his peers in the NHL.  His numbers in the A are worse than everyone I've looked up.  From Jake Allen to Markstrom to Husso to Binnington to Logan Thompson to Stuart Skinner.  Skinner is the closest I've seen to UPL's lousy numbers, but that was only one season, not 4.  Skinner's last two AHL campaigns featured save % of .914 and .920.  UPL has never come close to those numbers.  

 

From his injury history to his mediocre numbers and inability to win consistently at any level in North America, Luukkonen is certainly undeserving of his extended call-up to the NHL. It's as if the Sabres brass are trying to prove something by forcing him into a role that he is not suited. The Sabres have no clue what to do about their goaltending and if they weren't handed two overall #1 defensive draft choices, they'd be a lot worse off on defense, which is unimaginable.

Edited March 23, 2023 by Quint

[Huckleberry]

12 minutes ago, Quint said:

From his injury history to his mediocre numbers and inability to win consistently at any level in North America, Luukkonen is certainly undeserving of his extended call-up to the NHL. It's as if the Sabres brass are trying to prove something by forcing him into a role that he is not suited. The Sabres have no clue what to do about their goaltending and if they weren't handed two overall #1 defensive draft choices, they'd be a lot worse off on defense, which is unimaginable.

They were winning games with him in net, but was more to do with our high scoring than anything else.  

[Sabel79]

UPL can get in the sea.  Comrie can also get in the sea, but he gets a raft as I feel kind of bad for him re: injuries.  Anderson has my warmest regards as he returns to his family in God's own waiting room never to return.  

I can't imagine we don't see some kind of non-Levi upgrade next year.  Just going to keep believing that as hard as I can in an attempt to manifest it "The Secret" style. 

[Marvin]

3 minutes ago, Sabel79 said:

UPL can get in the sea.  Comrie can also get in the sea, but he gets a raft as I feel kind of bad for him re: injuries.  Anderson has my warmest regards as he returns to his family in God's own waiting room never to return.  

I can't imagine we don't see some kind of non-Levi upgrade next year.  Just going to keep believing that as hard as I can in an attempt to manifest it "The Secret" style. 

Until Adams proves to me that he will value goaltending, I am assuming that we will see more of the same until Levi arrives.

[MISabresFan]

Comrie's AHL save percentage is better than UPL's.  Uhlmark's save percentage in the AHL was similar to Comrie's.  Maybe Comrie needs more NHL time in net?

[Weave]

3 hours ago, Quint said:

From his injury history to his mediocre numbers and inability to win consistently at any level in North America, Luukkonen is certainly undeserving of his extended call-up to the NHL. It's as if the Sabres brass are trying to prove something by forcing him into a role that he is not suited. The Sabres have no clue what to do about their goaltending and if they weren't handed two overall #1 defensive draft choices, they'd be a lot worse off on defense, which is unimaginable.

I don’t think it was so much forcing UPL into the role.  I think it was kissing Levi’s ass by showing him we have an immediate opening.  I suspect if the immediate opening wasn’t demonstrated, getting him to sign would have been even more problematic.

A goalie tank to sign the preferred goalie.

[French Collection]

I think UPL needs more time in the AHL to gain some confidence and experience to get another shot at the NHL. The problem with this is Levi needs to play and I don’t know if a shared net in Rochester would work. The competition would be good to see but I don’t think there would be enough games for these two prospects.

[Taro T]

24 minutes ago, Weave said:

I don’t think it was so much forcing UPL into the role.  I think it was kissing Levi’s ass by showing him we have an immediate opening.  I suspect if the immediate opening wasn’t demonstrated, getting him to sign would have been even more problematic.

A goalie tank to sign the preferred goalie.

Believe it was more kissing Portillo's bippy to convince him that things weren't too crowded to work both him and Levi into the mix.  Levi has clearly been annointed ever since Reinhart became a Swamp Cat.

Not making a significant push for a Saros at the deadline could very well have had a component of "we can't scare  Devin off too" to it along with the "any good goalie will be crazy expensive at this time of the season."

 

20 minutes ago, French Collection said:

I think UPL needs more time in the AHL to gain some confidence and experience to get another shot at the NHL. The problem with this is Levi needs to play and I don’t know if a shared net in Rochester would work. The competition would be good to see but I don’t think there would be enough games for these two prospects.

He should be in the AHL right now and probably next year too.  Only way that happens realistically is if Levi forces his way into the starter's role next year.

And, though fully believe that Adams doesn't value goalies enough, really expect him to actually finally bite the bullet and get a good vet to team up with one of the 2 younger guys this year.  He has to see how with even average goaltending this season the team was going to be in the dance.  The skaters will be better next year just by so many of them being a year closer to their primes.   (Really doubt Okposo comes back, leaving only Girgensons in the we're at the age where play slides off part of his career.)   But goaltending could sabotage next year just like it did this year.

[dudacek]

It shouldn’t be overlooked that UPL is on a one-way deal next year, and should also be eligible for waivers.

Comrie is the same.

The plan clearly was that one or both would emerge this year and they would form a tandem next year.

The plan has clearly failed. 

Next year they should be battling for the backup position behind a new acquisition and the loser of that battle should be traded or waived.

Personally, I don’t expect UPL to be a Sabre or an Amerk come October.

Edited March 23, 2023 by dudacek