Sabres today and tomorrow... Interesting quote in TBN... But who said it?

[Stoner]

Paywall for TBN so this is all I saw. I won't editorialize, but this is the money quote IMHO.

'"Imagine if we can grow as much in the next two years as we've just grown in these two years. I don't think we're going to sweat anything that didn't happen yesterday. There's no reason to. And I'm actually excited. Everybody is trying to make moves and spending, spending, spending to do it, spending their future, because our future, we feel, is pretty darn bright and …"

Edited March 9, 2023 by PASabreFan

[bg17]

3 minutes ago, PASabreFan said:

Paywall for TBN so this is all I saw. I won't editorialize, but this is the money quote IMHO.

'"Imagine if we can grow as much in the next two years as we've just grown in these two years. I don't think we're going to sweat anything that didn't happen yesterday. There's no reason to. And I'm actually excited. Everybody is trying to make moves and spending, spending, spending to do it, spending their future, because our future, we feel, is pretty darn bright and …"

It was Granato. Audio is out there somewhere. 

[dudacek]

Yes, Granato.

Context was in the aftermath of a speech Adams gave the players trade deadline morning.

They told the players, and they're telling us: they believe in internal development and they have no plans to bring in saviours.

[tom webster]

I believe in the sentiment as it pertains to the team. The future is indeed bright. However, I think Granato and Adams are both over selling just how much their competition gave away. Pittsburgh is dumpster fire, Washington is getting old but I’m not sure Boston, Tampa or Toronto are going anywhere soon. It’s going to be interesting and Buffalo should be right in the mix.

[Pimlach]

8 minutes ago, tom webster said:

I believe in the sentiment as it pertains to the team. The future is indeed bright. However, I think Granato and Adams are both over selling just how much their competition gave away. Pittsburgh is dumpster fire, Washington is getting old but I’m not sure Boston, Tampa or Toronto are going anywhere soon. It’s going to be interesting and Buffalo should be right in the mix.

I am concerned that they are overselling the internal growth aspect.  Good speech for now, tell the players not much change because we believe in you, etc.  But come this summer there is work to do.

Pittsburgh and Washington may be dropping but that does mean they will stand still.  Same with the Islanders.  Ottawa is in a deadlock with us and so is Florida, and Detroit is in the mix too.  

If Adams has an another off-season like the last one and fails to address obvious needs - goalie help, another vet 4D, another big forward, and the overall depth - we might not keep up with the others.  

 

 

[Flashsabre]

8 minutes ago, Pimlach said:

I am concerned that they are overselling the internal growth aspect.  Good speech for now, tell the players not much change because we believe in you, etc.  But come this summer there is work to do.

Pittsburgh and Washington may be dropping but that does mean they will stand still.  Same with the Islanders.  Ottawa is in a deadlock with us and so is Florida, and Detroit is in the mix too.  

If Adams has an another off-season like the last one and fails to address obvious needs - goalie help, another vet 4D, another big forward, and the overall depth - we might not keep up with the others.  

 

 

Boston have no replacement for Bergeron and Krecji and no cap space to replace them.

[MattPie]

18 minutes ago, tom webster said:

I believe in the sentiment as it pertains to the team. The future is indeed bright. However, I think Granato and Adams are both over selling just how much their competition gave away. Pittsburgh is dumpster fire, Washington is getting old but I’m not sure Boston, Tampa or Toronto are going anywhere soon. It’s going to be interesting and Buffalo should be right in the mix.

Toronto seems to be the one to worry about, Boston and Tampa are still good but likely guys start falling off as they age. Best thing that happens is Toronto has a lackluster playoffs and they fire the GM and Coach and it throws them into disarray as the new guys mess with things. 🙂

[ddaryl]

Sure seems like half of the league is gutting its pipeline for the win now mentality. 

For many of these teams it will come home to roost.... IF the Sabres can continue to improve there all around game while continuing to lock up the core we could be peaking while many of those spend now teams start decending into the valley of retool/rebuild

 

Edited March 9, 2023 by ddaryl

[triumph_communes]

Toronto and Rangers are the ones over spending. Ottawa spent a bunch of capital for the now. Florida made a bunch of mistakes and running out of options. Boston and Tampa have no future once they age out. 

[Pimlach]

28 minutes ago, Flashsabre said:

Boston have no replacement for Bergeron and Krecji and no cap space to replace them.

So far. 

[LGR4GM]

31 minutes ago, Flashsabre said:

Boston have no replacement for Bergeron and Krecji and no cap space to replace them.

But if they win a cup this year, will it matter?

13 minutes ago, ddaryl said:

Sure seems like half of the league is gutting its pipeline for the win now mentality. 

For many of these teams it will come home to roost.... IF the Sabres can continue to improve there all around game while continuing to lock up the core we could be peaking while many of those spend now teams start decending into the valley of retool/rebuild

 

I think teams are finally understanding their windows and their pick values.

[WhenWillItEnd66]

I do agree with this. In 2 years we are going to be very good. But, unless there are some additions and subtractions, we are going to be very good with the same old problems. What we have in the pipeline are smallish non physical players that will "swing the stick check" instead of using a body. We need to find a happy medium who will actually stand up at our blueline and do more then try to stick check. We have a great future, but do not piss it away by keeping the same old problems.

[Flashsabre]

4 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

But if they win a cup this year, will it matter?

I think teams are finally understanding their windows and their pick values.

The comment was that the Sabres won’t be able to compete with Boston over the next few years. If Bergeron and Krecji retire then that changes a ton for them. Like the Habs when Lemaire and Dryden retired after the ‘79 Cup.  

[Taro T]

1 hour ago, dudacek said:

Yes, Granato.

Context was in the aftermath of a speech Adams gave the players trade deadline morning.

They told the players, and they're telling us: they believe in internal development and they have no plans to bring in saviours.

Provided the goaltending improves, the team doesn't need saviors.  They have a strong top 2 lines, solid to excellent 1-3, and the lesser pieces for the most part are solid and still have a lot of room to grow.

A 1G, whether through internal or external route, and a 4 on D, and maybe some extra depth to supplement the kids and keep them from getting deployed into roles they aren't ready for and this team is a legit contender, not just a WC team.

Do expect the D-man brought in, but doubt we see much in the way of depth brought in especially if Johnson signs because they have some kids that aren't in the NHL now that could probably play there today if necessary and with a new D-man plus Johnson, they'll be 6-7 true NHLers deep at D with 3-4 tweeners backing them up.

The wild card is the biggest need goaltending.  Can see them rolling with Comrie and UPL with Levi on the farm, but unless 1 or both really pick up their game it will still be hit or miss.  Really hoping they get it right, but untill they actually do get it right, that's the 1 spot that they haven't shown an ability to fix for today.

[Randall Flagg]

I was all in on Boston's reign being over when they bungled the 2015 first round. 

I won't believe that Boston will falter until it happens 

On paper Donny has a point, but on paper the Sabres should have been among the league's elite three times over at this point. Him and Kevyn need to work to make it reality, and it probably needs more than just "add water and place in sunlight, " which is the path I worry they are suggesting 

[Taro T]

2 minutes ago, Stormcloudmember66 said:

I do agree with this. In 2 years we are going to be very good. But, unless there are some additions and subtractions, we are going to be very good with the same old problems. What we have in the pipeline are smallish non physical players that will "swing the stick check" instead of using a body. We need to find a happy medium who will actually stand up at our blueline and do more then try to stick check. We have a great future, but do not piss it away by keeping the same old problems.

The team has 7 skaters on the roster 6'3" or bigger and 2 more that are 6'2".

There are only 5 guys that are listd at 5'11" or shorter and only 2 of those (Skinner and Jost) will be here beyond the next season.  (Hinostroza won't be resigned and is a spare anyway.  Olofsson is not likely long for this team and is the 1 F that plays small.  And Bryson is finally a spare when healthy and likely doen't fit in beyond next season.

Kulich seems to play bigger than his 5'11" and Savoie is tremendously talented.  This team can handle having a few smaller guys on the ice when literally 1/2 of the players dressing when they're all healthy are at least 6'2".  This is not a small team.

[Stoner]

OK I am old and weak and cannot fight today.

This better be amazeballs in two years.

[Hawerchuk]

1 hour ago, PASabreFan said:

Paywall for TBN so this is all I saw. I won't editorialize, but this is the money quote IMHO.

To avoid the paywall on TBN, once the article opens up, quickly "SELECT ALL", then "COPY". You must do this very fast before the paywall subscribe comes up. Once copied, open up a text program ( I use TextEdit on Apple Mac) and paste. Just increase the font size and you're in business. No pics or anything but at least you can read the articles. I suppose on a PC, MS Word program would work.

Enjoy.
GO SABRES!!

[French Collection]

12 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

But if they win a cup this year, will it matter?

I think teams are finally understanding their windows and their pick values.

Elliot Friedman’s 32 Thoughts link.

https://www.sportsnet.ca/nhl/article/32-thoughts-wrapping-up-the-nhl-trade-deadline/

One interesting thought is the return of the Chychrun trade. A few people think there is no way Arizona gets comparable performance from those draft picks. This is similar to what Brisebois was saying in justifying his multiple picks for Tanner Jeannot.

One source is Twitter linked in the article. It is a university thesis on the inefficiency of the NHL draft. It is fairly long but I read through it and it has conclusions we kind of guess at but provides a level of evidence to support it.

The study was based on the NHL draft from 2007-2014. It is called NHL Draft Biases.

Main conclusions were:

The NHL undervalues prospect points. Scoring at the lower levels is more likely to predict scoring in the NHL. Hoping for a guy to develop a scoring touch later on doesn’t work.

Size doesn’t matter. Shorter prospects tend to outperform taller prospects that are picked in a similar range.

Later born prospects (July-September) outperform their birth year. Older kids get picked more because they have played better at the lower levels due to age, size, maturity etc…

Nationality has no impact on performance. He looked at N.Am. vs non N.Am.

Penalty minutes are overvalued by NHL teams. High PIM underperform low PIM players when picked in the same range. The NHL sees this as toughness/grit but the skill level is lower leading to fewer games played and lower points.

Re-draft status, players picked in the next year of eligibility outperform players picked in the same range who are in their first year of eligibility. 

 

[LGR4GM]

4 minutes ago, French Collection said:

Elliot Friedman’s 32 Thoughts link.

https://www.sportsnet.ca/nhl/article/32-thoughts-wrapping-up-the-nhl-trade-deadline/

One interesting thought is the return of the Chychrun trade. A few people think there is no way Arizona gets comparable performance from those draft picks. This is similar to what Brisebois was saying in justifying his multiple picks for Tanner Jeannot.

One source is Twitter linked in the article. It is a university thesis on the inefficiency of the NHL draft. It is fairly long but I read through it and it has conclusions we kind of guess at but provides a level of evidence to support it.

The study was based on the NHL draft from 2007-2014. It is called NHL Draft Biases.

Main conclusions were:

The NHL undervalues prospect points. Scoring at the lower levels is more likely to predict scoring in the NHL. Hoping for a guy to develop a scoring touch later on doesn’t work.

Size doesn’t matter. Shorter prospects tend to outperform taller prospects that are picked in a similar range.

Later born prospects (July-September) outperform their birth year. Older kids get picked more because they have played better at the lower levels due to age, size, maturity etc…

Nationality has no impact on performance. He looked at N.Am. vs non N.Am.

Penalty minutes are overvalued by NHL teams. High PIM underperform low PIM players when picked in the same range. The NHL sees this as toughness/grit but the skill level is lower leading to fewer games played and lower points.

Re-draft status, players picked in the next year of eligibility outperform players picked in the same range who are in their first year of eligibility. 

 

Somebody found the paper I've been using as a base since 2017ish

Edit: to clarify his thesis came out in 2022 but is based around concepts that have been in play (SEAL) since the mid teens. It's a good read. Sorry, my original post was poorly worded. 

Edited March 9, 2023 by LGR4GM

[WhenWillItEnd66]

29 minutes ago, Taro T said:

The team has 7 skaters on the roster 6'3" or bigger and 2 more that are 6'2".

There are only 5 guys that are listd at 5'11" or shorter and only 2 of those (Skinner and Jost) will be here beyond the next season.  (Hinostroza won't be resigned and is a spare anyway.  Olofsson is not likely long for this team and is the 1 F that plays small.  And Bryson is finally a spare when healthy and likely doen't fit in beyond next season.

Kulich seems to play bigger than his 5'11" and Savoie is tremendously talented.  This team can handle having a few smaller guys on the ice when literally 1/2 of the players dressing when they're all healthy are at least 6'2".  This is not a small team.

Big players do not mean they play big..... Taylor Pyatt ring a bell?? He was a serious purseboy. Maybe i should have just said NON PHYSICAL players. They can be 7' but they all mostly play small and would rather stick check then take a man. Even KA figured it out. This team with the exception of a couple of "Glass Joes" plays like Taylor Pyatt.

[ddaryl]

38 minutes ago, PASabreFan said:

OK I am old and weak and cannot fight today.

This better be amazeballs in two years.

[Night Train]

34 minutes ago, Stormcloudmember66 said:

Big players do not mean they play big..... 

I was reminded of that last week when 5-8 Conor Sheary decked our 6-5 Samuelsson. 

[PromoTheRobot]

3 hours ago, PASabreFan said:

Paywall for TBN so this is all I saw. I won't editorialize, but this is the money quote IMHO.

'"Imagine if we can grow as much in the next two years as we've just grown in these two years. I don't think we're going to sweat anything that didn't happen yesterday. There's no reason to. And I'm actually excited. Everybody is trying to make moves and spending, spending, spending to do it, spending their future, because our future, we feel, is pretty darn bright and …"

Was there something else you were picking up here?

[PerreaultForever]

Well you draft yourself a solid core of young stars but then you need to build a team around them to win. We still need a number of players that aren't in the pipeline. 

Is this Boston's last shot? Will Boston fall? maybe. Probably. But not necessarily. They are set in goal. They are set on D. Both areas much better than the Sabres. Zacha will likely shift into Krejci's spot and Hall will be the other winger to make that line reasonably good still. The bottom of the roster will be easily filled by guys they already have like Lauko and Greer. Hathaway will likely stay. Only hole would be Bergeron's spot and you don't easily fill a hole like that but who knows. ROR will be a FA. Imagine that? It's not impossible for them to find a way to stay almost as good as they are now for several more years before they actually fall due to an empty pipeline.