Should we be worried about next year?

[dudacek]

One truism in hockey is that a career year is often followed with some backsliding.

This year is just another case where Tage Thompson is the exception that proves the rule.

Our best players — Thompson, Dahlin, Skinner, Tuch, Cozens and Mittelstadt — are all having career years, and by a significant margin.

Tell me why we shouldn't we be worried about some serious regression.

[TageMVP]

Just now, dudacek said:

One truism in hockey is that a career year is often followed with some backsliding.

This year is just another case where Tage Thompson is the exception that proves the rule.

Our best players — Thompson, Dahlin, Skinner, Tuch, Cozens and Mittelstadt — are all having career years, and by a significant margin.

Tell me why we shouldn't we be worried about some serious regression.

None of them are considered "old" yet 

[Taro T]

4 minutes ago, dudacek said:

One truism in hockey is that a career year is often followed with some backsliding.

This year is just another case where Tage Thompson is the exception that proves the rule.

Our best players — Thompson, Dahlin, Skinner, Tuch, Cozens and Mittelstadt — are all having career years, and by a significant margin.

Tell me why we shouldn't we be worried about some serious regression.

Someone will almost definitely regress.  A bit.

But they also have extremely young guys: Quinn, Peterka, Krebs, & Power who should all have substantially better years.

Jokiharju should be better next year as well and personally am hoping that Lyubushkin has that "defenseman's 2nd season in a new place" settling into a comfort level with his new team that could also be better next year.

If they can get goaltending whether it be by one or 2 of the guys they already have taking a step, or by trade or FA, this team should be very good and challenging to be in the top 3 in the division.

Bring in another 4-5 D-man to round out the unit and they could do some damage.

 

 

[DarthEbriate]

I expect there will be a lot of hand-wringing and name-calling amongst the fans next season when the Sabres score fewer goals...

...but play better defense and be a better team for it.

[Curt]

11 minutes ago, dudacek said:

One truism in hockey is that a career year is often followed with some backsliding.

This year is just another case where Tage Thompson is the exception that proves the rule.

Our best players — Thompson, Dahlin, Skinner, Tuch, Cozens and Mittelstadt — are all having career years, and by a significant margin.

Tell me why we shouldn't we be worried about some serious regression.

You shouldn’t be worried because even if they do regress a tad, Quinn, Peterka, Krebs, Greenway, Power, Jokiharju, Comrie, and UPL are all going to take their turn at breakout seasons.

[GASabresIUFAN]

33 minutes ago, dudacek said:

One truism in hockey is that a career year is often followed with some backsliding.

This year is just another case where Tage Thompson is the exception that proves the rule.

Our best players — Thompson, Dahlin, Skinner, Tuch, Cozens and Mittelstadt — are all having career years, and by a significant margin.

Tell me why we shouldn't we be worried about some serious regression.

I'd be more worried about a back slide caused by injuries.  

I thought last off-season that Thompson might regress due to his historically high shooting %, but the truth was that he finally matured into his body and DG's offense gave him the freedom to unlock his skill set.  He is going to be a threat to score 50 annually for 5 or more year to come.

Casey and Cozens are forming a very dangerous partnership.  Together they have another level in them.  Cozens is only 22.

Dahlin is only 22.  The only issues here are health and whether the team gives the improving Power more PP pt.  We honestly could see them play together at times soon and won't that be scary for our opponents

The two who could trail off are Skinner, age 30, and Tuch, but I doubt it for next year.  Tuch is only 26 and is in his prime.  Skinner at 30 plays the kind of game that translates to longevity in production.  He almost never sits out more than a few games a year and seems to have a nack for finding open ice around the net.  He might be able to pot 30 at 35.  He's a winger version of Pavelski.

Edited March 7, 2023 by GASabresIUFAN

[Thorner]

We should. If we believe in the principles of mathematics.  Not to mention how lucky we’ve been on the injury front. 

Still, I’d pencil Dahlin in pretty darn confidently as an exception that proves the rule. Become league’s best d... shift to the right.. he probably just does whatever it is we want him to. Cozens has too balanced a game to fail to provide significant value even if, for a season, the points dry up a tad.

The rub is that we have mathematically likely reasons to expect some of the likely regression to be offset by the inverse: it’s operating on the same logical principle: Quinn Krebs yada yada. I trust KA’s evaluation of guys like Quinn to the extent there’s no reason to think we can’t see a pretty level playing field in that “career year vs regression” sense, going forward, for a few years. Ie, the Window. Maintaining a status quo offensive output is contender worthy, no? Proof is in pudding re: the ranking next year. 

It’s just another thing that comes back to GM aptitude. If he’s got the right young players identified, it’s fine. A skill we need anyways, going forward, considering the necessity contending teams have of cycling in ELC talent 

in the end going from good to great depends on goalie, and Power. Goalie is the biggest. Self explanatory

If Power is another exception to the rule, just in general, careers wise (not a bad bet, #1 overall pick) we are simply going to be GMing from a place of privilege for years. That’s what having 2 all stars who combined can play 2/3rds of any game and more less a full playoff game will do. We already have a Smythe Guy in Rasmus

 

Oh man, TL;DR - everyone said all this above me and I took way too long writing it up

Edited March 7, 2023 by Thorny

[Thorner]

2 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

I'd be more worried about a back slide caused by injuries.  

I thought last off-season that Thompson might regress due to his historically high shooting %, but the truth was that he finally matured into his body and DG's offense gave him the freedom to unlock his skill set.  He is going to be a threat to score 50 annually for 5 or more year to come.

Casey and Cozens are forming a very dangerous partnership.  Together they have another level in them.  Cozens is only 22.

Dahlin is only 22.  The only issues here are health and whether the team gives the improving Power more PP pt.  We honestly could see them play together at times soon and won't that be scary for our opponents

The two who could trail off are Skinner, age 30, and Tuch, but I doubt it for next year.  Tuch is only 26 and is in his prime.  Skinner at 30 plays the kind of game that translates to longevity in production.  He almost never sits out more than a few games a year seems has a nack for finding open ice around the net.  He might be able to pot 30 at 35.  He's a winger version of Pavelski.

Ya, Dahlin won’t lose PP time to anyone. There will always be someone more deserving of having their minutes lessened 

[mjd1001]

30 minutes ago, dudacek said:

One truism in hockey is that a career year is often followed with some backsliding.

This year is just another case where Tage Thompson is the exception that proves the rule.

Our best players — Thompson, Dahlin, Skinner, Tuch, Cozens and Mittelstadt — are all having career years, and by a significant margin.

Tell me why we shouldn't we be worried about some serious regression.

No.

Tage had a 'career' year last year, so that would have applied now.

Cozens and Dahlin are young and of an age where they are still developing.

Skinner has been 'consistent' under any coach other than Krueger.

Tuch and Mitts, can they 'backslide'? sure, but I don't think that woudl have a huge impact on the team because I dont' think they will fall down that far.

Improvement in Cozens and Dahlin, (especially Cozens D-zone play), improvement in Quinn, Power, and Peterka....should MORE than offset any 'backsliding off of a career year'.

Statistically, maybe Cozens and Dahlin will backslide, maybe they won't. But they bott (along with Paterka and Quinn) should get better in other parts of their game.  Dahlin has been really solid this year, but Quinn, Peterka, Powers and Cozens all have had issues in their own end or when defending that they can get better with as they get more experience. So even if they get worse statistically (which isn't a sure thing) you would think their overall game should get better.

Edited March 7, 2023 by mjd1001

[Scottysabres]

I think Bryson and Clague have a slide in their careers next season.....

[TageMVP]

Just now, Scottysabres said:

I think Bryson and Clague have a slide in their careers next season.....

They stink already 

But I'd keep Clague in the lineup over Bryson anyday of the week and 500 times on Sunday 

I'd trade Bryson right now for future considerations 

[Thorner]

You “laughed” at that @GASabresIUFANbut it’s true: Even in the very unlikely event Power proved to be our #1 pp guy, we’d run 2 D on the PP before Power takes his place outright 

Edited March 7, 2023 by Thorny

[Flashsabre]

39 minutes ago, dudacek said:

One truism in hockey is that a career year is often followed with some backsliding.

This year is just another case where Tage Thompson is the exception that proves the rule.

Our best players — Thompson, Dahlin, Skinner, Tuch, Cozens and Mittelstadt — are all having career years, and by a significant margin.

Tell me why we shouldn't we be worried about some serious regression.

Are any other teams going to regress or just the Sabres?

[bob_sauve28]

A) yes we should always worry 

 

B) Who are our goalies next year? 

[Thorner]

On 8/22/2022 at 1:13 PM, Thorny said:

Toronto oddly placed here, playoffs failures be damned 

I’ve mentioned this before but it’s really very quite common for young developing teams that ARE on track to have an “early arrival” year, followed by a step back year. 

The more I think about it, the more I’m tempted to expect something like that with Buffalo. 

As with players, it’s rare to see a consistent upwards trajectory. I’d caution anyone that expects smooth upward sailing once we finally do make it. 

By the same token, the idea they could surprise early fed into me going out on a limb and predicting playoffs THIS season 

Wanted to add the above, as I feel it fits in with your salient opening lime below

48 minutes ago, dudacek said:

One truism in hockey is that a career year is often followed with some backsliding.

This year is just another case where Tage Thompson is the exception that proves the rule.

Our best players — Thompson, Dahlin, Skinner, Tuch, Cozens and Mittelstadt — are all having career years, and by a significant margin.

Tell me why we shouldn't we be worried about some serious regression.

 

Edited March 7, 2023 by Thorny
LIME

[GASabresIUFAN]

8 minutes ago, Thorny said:

You “laughed” at that @GASabresIUFANbut it’s true: Even in the very unlikely event Power proved to be our #1 pp guy, we’d run 2 D on the PP before Power takes his place outright 

I was laughing at the part of the comment that there will always be someone to take minutes away from.  That's funny and true.

[TRIP65]

46 minutes ago, dudacek said:

One truism in hockey is that a career year is often followed with some backsliding.

This year is just another case where Tage Thompson is the exception that proves the rule.

Our best players — Thompson, Dahlin, Skinner, Tuch, Cozens and Mittelstadt — are all having career years, and by a significant margin.

Tell me why we shouldn't we be worried about some serious regression.

Cause Power, Quinn, Krebs, Tuch, Greenway will trend up

[tom webster]

I’m sorry, dudachek is one of my favorite posters on here but this thread is so Buffalo.

[TRIP65]

17 minutes ago, Scottysabres said:

I think Bryson and Clague have a slide in their careers next season.....

slide from ROSTER

[Crusader1969]

48 minutes ago, TageMVP said:

None of them are considered "old" yet 

I cringed when the commentator last night, Debrusk (who is actually great as an analyst) said that Cozens is having a “career” year.  Is he even 21 ???  
a career year is a 27 year old has a season that’s way above anything he has done before, not a kid 3rd year in the league!!!

[spndnchz]

😞

[Crusader1969]

2 minutes ago, TRIP65 said:

slide from ROSTER

If you believe Bryson won’t be back next season then you should sleep easy    They will be better by virtue of him not being on the team 

 

[DarthEbriate]

We need to be worrying about this year.

Never our minds on where we were. Hmm? What we were doing! Hmm!

[LGR4GM]

1 hour ago, dudacek said:

One truism in hockey is that a career year is often followed with some backsliding.

This year is just another case where Tage Thompson is the exception that proves the rule.

Our best players — Thompson, Dahlin, Skinner, Tuch, Cozens and Mittelstadt — are all having career years, and by a significant margin.

Tell me why we shouldn't we be worried about some serious regression.

Age

[Cascade Youth]

32 minutes ago, tom webster said:

I’m sorry, dudachek is one of my favorite posters on here but this thread is so Buffalo.

Felix Unger: “They say it may rain on Friday.”