DarthEbriate Posted March 7, 2023 Report Posted March 7, 2023 On 3/7/2023 at 6:42 PM, Thorny said: More less what I think / hope but I suppose we’ll have to see Like I said, I buy the idea of Karlsson getting it and even deserving it: my problem would lie in Dahlin not finishing 2nd, let alone not getting a nomination at all Expand I think the nomination is probably 90% locked at this point, but if they miss the playoffs it becomes a matter of how they miss the playoffs. What's the end-of-season perception of Dahlin and the Sabres? Then, compare that with how the others do. If Buffalo is in it until the end before a hot run by Ottawa seals the deal (something more or less out of Dahlin's control) he's got 2nd. If Buffalo stumbles mid-March and then ends up riding out the string for the final 2 weeks... he could dip to 4th. If the Devils get past Carolina and get a 1st round WC team instead of the Rangers, does that push Hamilton up a single spot? Alternately, does a single fix like taking Bryson out of the Sabres lineup result in the team giving up fewer than 3 goals a game down the stretch, turning them into a powerhouse 15-5 finish, and Dahlin coasts to the Norris? A lot can happen in the final quarter of the season.
French Collection Posted March 7, 2023 Report Posted March 7, 2023 On 3/7/2023 at 6:30 PM, Thorny said: But the eastern media usually dominates, no? and isnt Dahlin the top guy in the East? 2 guys from western Canada in Morrissey and Hamilton who are having inferior seasons make up the gap because they’re from..western Canada? Tbh I think you are stretching here. There’s a combination of blinders possible to have Dahlin 7th or 8th or 30th or whatever you apparently have him finishing in voting but I don’t really see it Expand Minor point but Hamilton is from Toronto. 1 1
Thorner Posted March 7, 2023 Report Posted March 7, 2023 (edited) On 3/7/2023 at 7:51 PM, French Collection said: Minor point but Hamilton is from Toronto. Expand Not minor, I was mistaken. But actually for a different reason lol. For whatever reason I was thinking Calgary when I said Hamilton. Did he play there even? lol. Morrissey Jets (ala western Canada) and ya, had Calgary in there. So New Jersey for Hamilton: but is still have Dahlin as the East’s front runner Edit LOL ok he’s not even on NJ he’s on Carolina. Played on Calgary, Jersey, and Carolina, all 3. The most dealt Norris contender in history Edited March 7, 2023 by Thorny
Thorner Posted March 7, 2023 Report Posted March 7, 2023 Adam Fox is the current internet All-Around D Guy and Dahlin this season is pantsing even him, metrically
LGR4GM Posted March 7, 2023 Author Report Posted March 7, 2023 On 3/7/2023 at 8:23 PM, Thorny said: Adam Fox is the current internet All-Around D Guy and Dahlin this season is pantsing even him, metrically Expand Whether he wins the Norris or not, how amazing is it that using just about any measure you feel like (points, eye test, fancy stats) Rasmus Dahlin is the best defender in the NHL?
Thorner Posted March 7, 2023 Report Posted March 7, 2023 (edited) On 3/7/2023 at 8:49 PM, LGR4GM said: Whether he wins the Norris or not, how amazing is it that using just about any measure you feel like (points, eye test, fancy stats) Rasmus Dahlin is the best defender in the NHL? Expand I agree. Any Sabres fan has the tools at their disposal to show very well in any argument about who the league’s best d-man is, should they choose to pursue it. It doesn’t require any bias at all. Edited March 7, 2023 by Thorny
Taro T Posted March 7, 2023 Report Posted March 7, 2023 On 3/7/2023 at 6:22 PM, Thorny said: Who do you have in 2nd if they miss? Expand Purely off name recognition either Makar or Fox. Both will be in the playoffs and expect that will matter to voters. (Though it objectively shouldn't.)
Thorner Posted March 7, 2023 Report Posted March 7, 2023 On 3/7/2023 at 9:00 PM, Taro T said: Purely off name recognition either Makar or Fox. Both will be in the playoffs and expect that will matter to voters. (Though it objectively shouldn't.) Expand You didn’t say Morrissey so you for today are safe 1
dudacek Posted March 7, 2023 Report Posted March 7, 2023 On 3/7/2023 at 8:49 PM, LGR4GM said: Whether he wins the Norris or not, how amazing is it that using just about any measure you feel like (points, eye test, fancy stats) Rasmus Dahlin is the best defender in the NHL? Expand On 3/7/2023 at 8:56 PM, Thorny said: I agree. Any Sabres fan has the tools at their disposal to show very well in any argument about who the league’s best d-man is, should they choose to pursue it. It doesn’t require any bias at all. Expand I'm actually kinda surprised that the statistical case (the whole package, not just the points) hasn't driven more of the conversation toward Dahlin. I'm thinking there's a portion of the hockey world that has yet to fully grasp how strong in his own zone, and how physically abrasive he has become. They might be vaguely aware he's no longer 'soft' or 'a disaster in his own zone' but they've yet to grasp he can shut them down and piss them off with the best of them, in addition to being the second-best offence-generating blueliner in the league. Personally, I blame it partially on the fact he's European, and partially on the fact he's a Sabre and Thompson has stolen the spotlight as far as the Sabre renaissance goes. 1
Thorner Posted March 7, 2023 Report Posted March 7, 2023 (edited) On 3/7/2023 at 9:53 PM, dudacek said: I'm actually kinda surprised that the statistical case (the whole package, not just the points) hasn't driven more of the conversation toward Dahlin. I'm thinking there's a portion of the hockey world that has yet to fully grasp how strong in his own zone, and how physically abrasive he has become. They might be vaguely aware he's no longer 'soft' or 'a disaster in his own zone' but they've yet to grasp he can shut them down and piss them off with the best of them, in addition to being the second-best offence-generating blueliner in the league. Personally, I blame it partially on the fact he's European, and partially on the fact he's a Sabre and Thompson has stolen the spotlight as far as the Sabre renaissance goes. Expand Definitely true. I think it’s the first bit, honestly. There are people in those threads, including the OP in the Fox thread, pointing out they were unaware of how significantly good Dahlin has been playing actual defence, specifically, or just straight up acknowledging it when it’s pointed out. I think it’s the Sabres thing too (but that should change). Don’t see it as a Euro thing, tbh, too much of a history there of great Norris Swedes I can’t see this being anything other than the last year, of that. Of that aspect of his game being ignored. Message has been delivered As an edit - personally I see both Dahlin and Tage being presented as the faces of the turnaround but I might just be biased Edited March 7, 2023 by Thorny 1
DarthEbriate Posted March 7, 2023 Report Posted March 7, 2023 On 3/7/2023 at 10:00 PM, Thorny said: Definitely true. I think it’s the first bit, honestly. There are people in those threads, including the OP in the Fox thread, pointing out they were unaware of how significantly good Dahlin has been playing actual defence, specifically, or just straight up acknowledging it when it’s pointed out. I think it’s the Sabres thing too (but that should change). Don’t see it as a Euro thing, tbh, too much of a history there of great Norris Swedes I can’t see this being anything other than the last year, of that. Expand The other part that opens eyes is a playoff appearance. The entire league is watching then. Quinn Hughes turned that 2020 expanded playoff into a showcase for everyone. Dahlin's hasn't had that yet. Wait until the world sees him control the ice for 28 minutes/game in a 7-game series. He'll be a Norris candidate for the next 10 years once that happens. 1
French Collection Posted March 8, 2023 Report Posted March 8, 2023 Karlsson was shut out last night but so was Dahlin. Rasmus looks banged up and I think he is playing because of the Wild Card status. He may shut it down if the Sabres get eliminated. This would definitely hurt his chances, no playoffs and fewer games played. Hopefully it is something that gets better, but I think the rest is what he needs. 1
Thorner Posted March 8, 2023 Report Posted March 8, 2023 (edited) On 3/8/2023 at 3:32 PM, French Collection said: Karlsson was shut out last night but so was Dahlin. Rasmus looks banged up and I think he is playing because of the Wild Card status. He may shut it down if the Sabres get eliminated. This would definitely hurt his chances, no playoffs and fewer games played. Hopefully it is something that gets better, but I think the rest is what he needs. Expand Sabres won’t be eliminated until the last few of season, likely. At least by math Edited March 8, 2023 by Thorny
Thorner Posted March 9, 2023 Report Posted March 9, 2023 (edited) nhl.com running their Trophy Tracker series at the 3-quarter point. Dahlin in at #2 for Norris https://www.nhl.com/news/trophy-tracker-norris-sharks-karlsson-sabres-dahlin-favorites/c-341899396?tid=277729400 Edited March 9, 2023 by Thorny
Andrew Amerk Posted March 9, 2023 Report Posted March 9, 2023 Lidstrom didn’t win the Norris until he was 31, so Rasmus has plenty of time. 1
DarthEbriate Posted March 9, 2023 Report Posted March 9, 2023 Fairly detailed article on The Athletic that uses GSVA (game score value add) to rank the top Norris contenders. https://theathletic.com/4289690/2023/03/09/nhl-norris-trophy-breakdown/ Firewall? Top 5 are all bunched together and covered in the article: Fox 3.8, Lindholm 3.8, Burns 3.8, Karlsson 3.7, Dahlin 3.7 Note the absentees who will garner some conversation: Hamilton (6th 3.4); Josi (7th 3.3); Makar (8th 3.2); McAvoy; Slavin; Morrissey Dahlin's case for: " Relative to teammates, it’s actually Dahlin who has had the largest impact of the five, allowing 0.35 fewer expected goals against per 60 and 0.4 fewer actual goals against per 60. His impact on goal differential is the closest to Karlsson’s (0.82 per 60 compared to Karlsson’s 0.96), but he does it at both ends of the ice. Dahlin has been on the ice for 57.8 percent of the goals, which isn’t completely far off from Fox or Burns. Dahlin’s expected goals percentage is 52.4 percent, the lowest of the five, but that may have more to do with the team around him than him. He also faces the toughest usage of anyone on this list." Dahlin's case against: PP/PK "Dahlin being part of an elite power play is a plus, but it also makes him a bit of a power-play merchant. That’s where 44 percent of his points come from... "...Dahlin has been on the ice for 11.9 goals-per-60 on the power play, but only 7.6 expected goals-per-60 which suggests he has some luck on his side in that regard, too. Dahlin also allows more chances while penalty killing than the other Norris contenders here. 5 on 5 D "... He has the best relative numbers, sure, but that’s compared to a very weak defensive team. Dahlin’s results are strong overall, but they’re not on the same level as the field here. Dahlin is not particularly strong defending the rush. He allows a carry on 62 percent of his targets, denies seven percent of entries and allows a scoring chance on 18 percent of his targets — all below league average. He’s also still a little risky when it comes to exiting the zone. Dahlin has a heavy workload there, but his 8.9 botched puck retrievals or failed exits per 60 is one of the lesser marks in the league."
Thorner Posted March 10, 2023 Report Posted March 10, 2023 On 3/7/2023 at 8:11 PM, Thorny said: Not minor, I was mistaken. But actually for a different reason lol. For whatever reason I was thinking Calgary when I said Hamilton. Did he play there even? lol. Morrissey Jets (ala western Canada) and ya, had Calgary in there. So New Jersey for Hamilton: but is still have Dahlin as the East’s front runner Edit LOL ok he’s not even on NJ he’s on Carolina. Played on Calgary, Jersey, and Carolina, all 3. The most dealt Norris contender in history Expand Dammit. NJ. I will never learn where Hamilton plays apparently
French Collection Posted March 12, 2023 Report Posted March 12, 2023 Rasmus hasn’t been helping his case lately. Morrissey got hurt tonight, hasn’t played since the second. Jets beat Panthers in OT. 1
Randall Flagg Posted March 12, 2023 Report Posted March 12, 2023 This dude stares at a button that says "Danger: Do Not Press" and deliberately presses it That is how I feel watching him commit obvious bone-headed penalties every single game. That thing you go out of your way to do - please just don't do it. It's very easy to abstain from doing it. Stop
Thorner Posted March 12, 2023 Report Posted March 12, 2023 On 3/12/2023 at 2:59 AM, French Collection said: Rasmus hasn’t been helping his case lately. Morrissey got hurt tonight, hasn’t played since the second. Jets beat Panthers in OT. Expand He needs to pick up the rate before it’s more of a question of holding off the likes of Brandon Montour 1
Thorner Posted March 15, 2023 Report Posted March 15, 2023 (edited) As much as I’d like to take the other side, objectively this one seems to be slipping away. That’s what a stretch of 1 point in 7 games with an accompanying -6 rating will do. Down to 4th in scoring for D league wide, 4th in team scoring, with Cozens closing in Edited March 15, 2023 by Thorny
Taro T Posted March 15, 2023 Report Posted March 15, 2023 On 3/15/2023 at 6:39 PM, Thorny said: As much as I’d like to take the other side, objectively this one seems to be slipping away. That’s what a stretch of 1 point in 7 games with an accompanying -6 rating will do. Down to 4th in scoring for D league wide, 4th in team scoring, with Cozens closing in Expand Still like his chances to be a finalist. He just has to get past whatever injury is cutting down his effectiveness as the game wears on. He still looks great in the 1st period of games but seems to wear down by the end with his heavy usage.
Thorner Posted March 15, 2023 Report Posted March 15, 2023 On 3/15/2023 at 6:44 PM, Taro T said: Still like his chances to be a finalist. He just has to get past whatever injury is cutting down his effectiveness as the game wears on. He still looks great in the 1st period of games but seems to wear down by the end with his heavy usage. Expand Think Makar or Fox prob snags last nom
Taro T Posted March 15, 2023 Report Posted March 15, 2023 On 3/15/2023 at 6:45 PM, Thorny said: Think Makar or Fox prob snags last nom Expand Still a lot of time to get back into the spot he was just 3 weeks ago. IF he can get past whatever it is that's limiting him.
Thorner Posted March 15, 2023 Report Posted March 15, 2023 (edited) On 3/15/2023 at 6:47 PM, Taro T said: Still a lot of time to get back into the spot he was just 3 weeks ago. IF he can get past whatever it is that's limiting him. Expand His poor (relative) play? I’d agree Edited March 15, 2023 by Thorny
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