Rasmus Dahlin for Norris, 2023

[LGR4GM]

Rasmus Dahlin is the best overall defender in the NHL. He deserves the Norris. 

11 hours ago, Thorny said:

 

 

Dahlin = Norris

 

[Eleven]

He does deserve it, and Karlsson will win it even though it would be more appropriate to award the Masterson to Karlsson and the Norris to Dahlin.

[GASabresIUFAN]

Bold prediction, if the Sabres make the playoffs, Dahlin wins the Norris.

[Ogelthorpe]

No Norris until he signs for 8yr x 9mil per. 

[DarthEbriate]

33 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

Bold prediction, if the Sabres make the playoffs, Dahlin wins the Norris.

The only chance he has at the Norris, from a national perspective, is if the Sabres make the playoffs.

Otherwise, they'll acknowledge Karlsson's obscene stats, Morrissey's offensive breakout, Fox's overall game and market. And there will be some love for McAvoy as the #1 D on the best team in the league.

Edit: And Dougie Hamilton leading the NJD from bottom tier 63-point team to a playoff lock by March 1st. Basically, they've achieved a 100-goal differential swing and there's still a month to play.

Edited March 7, 2023 by DarthEbriate

[Marvin]

3 minutes ago, DarthEbriate said:

The only chance he has at the Norris, from a national perspective, is if the Sabres make the playoffs.

Otherwise, they'll acknowledge Karlsson's obscene stats, Morrissey's offensive breakout, Fox's overall game and market. And there will be some love for McAvoy as the #1 D on the best team in the league.

And Cale Makar.

[DarthEbriate]

7 minutes ago, Marvin said:

And Cale Makar.

I think Makar's missed games will do him in, but he'll still get votes. Quinn Hughes as well.

One thing to note on Karlsson -- he's putting up an historic season. He basically said, "Oh? You need me to provide the offense of Erik Karlsson and Brent Burns -- two of the most prolific scoring defensemen of the last decade -- and I need to do that on my own? Fine, done."

And he's doing it on a tanking team. His two starting goalies are both sub .890 sv%. Sure, he's not the best in his zone, but their whole roster is garbage defensively.

He's 30 points clear of the next highest-scoring player on his team. (Granted, he'd only be about 25 points clear if Meier hadn't been traded.) It'd be like if Dahlin already had 110 points and was 30 clear of Thompson. Heck, Karlsson has 1 point less than TNT.

[msw2112]

I would love to see Dahlin recognized for his outstanding play, but he's not going to win the Norris this year, even if he deserves it.  Remember where he was before Granato took over?  We are really fortunate that Granato is the Sabres coach.  I'm excited for the future with Dahlin and they really need to get him inked to an extension ASAP.  I'm also very excited to see what Power's future holds.

[Buffalonill]

I believe the only way he gets it is if Buffalo makes the playoffs.

 Then   The voters have no choice what's their excuse?

[DarthEbriate]

4 minutes ago, Buffalonill said:

I believe the only way he gets it is if Buffalo makes the playoffs.

 Then   The voters have no choice what's their excuse?

Karlsson's projected to be a -10 on a team with a -70 goal differential despite playing half the game. He'll break 100 points and lead his team in scoring by 30 points. That's not really an excuse.

Note: Last season, Josi's 96 points got him the most #1 votes, but Makar got #1 and all the #2 votes so he won. That would be Dahlin's hope: get #1 and #2 votes and hope Morrissey doesn't steal any. But the issue is last year Makar only trailed Josi's epic season by 10 points. Karlsson's up by almost 20 on Morrissey and Dahlin.

The other hope for Dahlin is that without Meier, Karlsson simply doesn't have anyone else to play with and his point production craters down the stretch. But he has 5 points in 3 March games, so thus far it hasn't happened.

[LTS]

Defense gets the shaft here.

Forwards have two awards basically.. highest scoring and defensive.  Why can't defense have the same?

If the point of defense is to first play defense and THEN contribute to the offense.. Dahlin is a given.

[Buffalonill]

1 hour ago, Ogelthorpe said:

No Norris until he signs for 8yr x 9mil per. 

 It would be an absolute miracle if he signed that

[Contempt]

Why are we rooting for our players to become more expensive?

[Taro T]

Bold take.

If the Sabres make the playoffs, he finishes 2nd.

If the Sabres miss the playoffs, he finishes 3rd.

Either way, if he's reasonably healthy next year he wins it in '24.

(Just don't see them giving it to anybody but Karlsson this year.)

[Buffalonill]

13 minutes ago, DarthEbriate said:

Karlsson's projected to be a -10 on a team with a -70 goal differential despite playing half the game. He'll break 100 points and lead his team in scoring by 30 points. That's not really an excuse.

Note: Last season, Josi's 96 points got him the most #1 votes, but Makar got #1 and all the #2 votes so he won. That would be Dahlin's hope: get #1 and #2 votes and hope Morrissey doesn't steal any. But the issue is last year Makar only trailed Josi's epic season by 10 points. Karlsson's up by almost 20 on Morrissey and Dahlin.

The other hope for Dahlin is that without Meier, Karlsson simply doesn't have anyone else to play with and his point production craters down the stretch. But he has 5 points in 3 March games, so thus far it hasn't happened.

 But Karlsson's doesn't play defense It should be for the best all around player not the top score .

 

[Thorner]

3 hours ago, Eleven said:

He does deserve it, and Karlsson will win it even though it would be more appropriate to award the Masterson to Karlsson and the Norris to Dahlin.

I wonder if they ever put in a “Bobby Orr”’ most D points award 

2 hours ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

Bold prediction, if the Sabres make the playoffs, Dahlin wins the Norris.

What if they miss? Nomination? 

[Weave]

21 minutes ago, Taro T said:

Bold take.

If the Sabres make the playoffs, he finishes 2nd.

If the Sabres miss the playoffs, he finishes 3rd.

Either way, if he's reasonably healthy next year he wins it in '24.

(Just don't see them giving it to anybody but Karlsson this year.)

I think this is a pretty accurate prediction.

[Ogelthorpe]

23 minutes ago, Buffalonill said:

 It would be an absolute miracle if he signed that

I know, I'm hoping, being positive for once. 🤣

[Thorner]

1 hour ago, DarthEbriate said:

The only chance he has at the Norris, from a national perspective, is if the Sabres make the playoffs.

Otherwise, they'll acknowledge Karlsson's obscene stats, Morrissey's offensive breakout, Fox's overall game and market. And there will be some love for McAvoy as the #1 D on the best team in the league.

Edit: And Dougie Hamilton leading the NJD from bottom tier 63-point team to a playoff lock by March 1st. Basically, they've achieved a 100-goal differential swing and there's still a month to play.

I don’t think I see those players being acknowledged over Dahlin, save Karlsson. What argument does Morrissey have if the voters care at all about actual defense? And yes, some do. There isn’t a noteworthy points separation 

fox and Hamilton are the only 2 to match Dahlin’s defensive numbers and they are currently below on offence, but more importantly especially Hamilton play on significantly deeper teams with better goal differential. Dahlin’s +/- more impressive, here. 

The only guys to match his offence (or exceed it in Karlsson’s case) fall way below on D. I could def see Karlsson coming in above Dahlin due to the raw offence but Morrissey is right there with Dahlin on O (Dahlin has the better points per game, rate of production, anyways) yet there’s a chasm of D. No argument for him 

maybe they go raw points for just the top 2 nominations, so Dahlin 3rd in points misses out, and for the 3rd nomination go with one of the 3 best defending Ds from the pool of Dahlin, Fox and Hamilton and choose to pass over Dahlin here for a vet. 

But they’d really have to be intentionally squinting, pretty hard, to avoid the fact, while following that process, that Dahlin was the one guy sitting most solidly on both sides.

Edited March 7, 2023 by Thorny

[Thorner]

39 minutes ago, Taro T said:

Bold take.

If the Sabres make the playoffs, he finishes 2nd.

If the Sabres miss the playoffs, he finishes 3rd.

Either way, if he's reasonably healthy next year he wins it in '24.

(Just don't see them giving it to anybody but Karlsson this year.)

Who do you have in 2nd if they miss? 

[DarthEbriate]

28 minutes ago, Buffalonill said:

 But Karlsson's doesn't play defense It should be for the best all around player not the top score .

I agree with you, but in this particular season, Karlsson's defense is a good 1980s-level offense. If he were having a 50- to 60-point campaign he'd look like Dahlin last season and be a -30 for playing half the game and he wouldn't get a single vote. But his point production is double that. The Sharks are really, really bad. Bedard sweepstakes bad. His season quite possibly will cost them Bedard.

6 minutes ago, Thorny said:

I don’t think I see those players being acknowledged over Dahlin, save Karlsson. What argument does Morrissey have if the voters care at all about actual defense? And yes, some do. There isn’t a noteworthy points separation 

fox and Hamilton are the only 2 to match Dahlin’s defensive numbers and they are currently below on offence, but more importantly especially Hamilton play on significantly deeper teams with better goal differential. Dahlin’s +/- more impressive, here. 

The only guys to match his offence (or exceed it in Karlsson’s case) fall way below on D. I could def see Karlsson coming in above Dahlin due to the raw offence but Morrissey is right there with Dahlin on O (Dahlin has the better points per game, rate of production, anywsys) yet there’s a chasm of D. No argument for him 

The concern is how many of those other players siphon votes from each other. You'll get Western Conf votes who see a few games of Dahlin and see Morrissey's breakout offensive season has elevated Winnipeg from 11th to playoff lock. You'll get homer writers who say "Well, Karlsson is #1 this year, but my guy (Makar/Fox/etc.) is going to get my 2nd-place vote." You'll also get pro-Buffalo writers who will vote #1 for Dahlin and not put Karlsson on the ballot.

[Thorner]

1 minute ago, DarthEbriate said:

I agree with you, but in this particular season, Karlsson's defense is a good 1980s-level offense. If he were having a 50- to 60-point campaign he'd look like Dahlin last season and be a -30 for playing half the game and he wouldn't get a single vote. But his point production is double that. The Sharks are really, really bad. Bedard sweepstakes bad. His season quite possibly will cost them Bedard.

The concern is how many of those other players siphon votes from each other. You'll get Western Conf votes who see a few games of Dahlin and see Morrissey's breakout offensive season has elevated Winnipeg from 11th to playoff lock. You'll get homer writers who say "Well, Karlsson is #1 this year, but my guy (Makar/Fox/etc.) is going to get my 2nd-place vote." You'll also get pro-Buffalo writers who will vote #1 for Dahlin and not put Karlsson on the ballot.

But the eastern media usually dominates, no? and isnt Dahlin the top guy in the East? 2 guys from western Canada in Morrissey and Hamilton who are having inferior seasons make up the gap because they’re from..western Canada? Tbh I think you are stretching here. There’s a combination of blinders possible to have Dahlin 7th or 8th or 30th or whatever you apparently have him finishing in voting but I don’t really see it 

[GASabresIUFAN]

33 minutes ago, Thorny said:

I wonder if they ever put in a “Bobby Orr”’ most D points award 

What if they miss? Nomination? 

Yeah.  He has already earned a nomination and he is the best all around D in the NHL this season.  However Karlsson’s resurgence is hard to ignore and the only thing that tips the scales for Dahlin would be the playoffs. 

[DarthEbriate]

6 minutes ago, Thorny said:

But the eastern media usually dominates, no? and isnt Dahlin the top guy in the East? 2 guys from western Canada in Morrissey and Hamilton who are having inferior seasons make up the gap because they’re from..western Canada? Tbh I think you are stretching here. There’s a combination of blinders possible to have Dahlin 7th or 8th or 30th or whatever you apparently have him finishing in voting but I don’t really see it 

I think he's got a 50/50 chance to win it if the Sabres make the playoffs, though he does need to make up a bit of ground in points to Karlsson. Get within 15 points or so. And he gets that victory by a similar vote breakdown to last year: stay close in the 1sts and get the bulk of 2nd place votes.

If they don't make the playoffs, I think all those 2nd place guys (Dahlin included) negate each other. Karlsson wins in the landslide and Dahlin finishes somewhere between 2nd and 4th.

[Thorner]

2 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

Yeah.  He has already earned a nomination and he is the best all around D in the NHL this season.  However Karlsson’s resurgence is hard to ignore and the only thing that tips the scales for Dahlin would be the playoffs. 

More less what I think / hope but I suppose we’ll have to see 

2 minutes ago, DarthEbriate said:

I think he's got a 50/50 chance to win it if the Sabres make the playoffs, though he does need to make up a bit of ground in points to Karlsson. Get within 15 points or so. And he gets that victory by a similar vote breakdown to last year: stay close in the 1sts and get the bulk of 2nd place votes.

If they don't make the playoffs, I think all those 2nd place guys (Dahlin included) negate each other. Karlsson wins in the landslide and Dahlin finishes somewhere between 2nd and 4th.

Like I said, I buy the idea of Karlsson getting it and even deserving it: my problem would lie in Dahlin not finishing 2nd, let alone not getting a nomination at all