Has Casey Mittelstadt changed any minds?

[Porous Five Hole]

10 minutes ago, Doohickie said:

I think the versatility that Casey showed stepping in at 1C demonstrated that he's not the kind of player you trade away.  I can't think of a recent trade that the Sabres would regret more than they would if they traded Mitts.  He's arrived but center-wise he's clearly 3rd in the pecking order and will be paid accordingly.  I think he'll be particularly useful in the playoffs- a highly skilled guy who can play up and down the lineup with decent size and grit who can play anywhere you want in the forward ranks.  Why would anyone want to trade that away?

I appreciate the conversation.  
You need to give to get, and Casey has value being a center making $2.5M & coming off a nearly 60 pt season.  Not to mention he is headed to RFA status, so future team control is also a bonus. There’s value in all of that.  
 

Not to get sidetracked, but I’ve said in the past that 1) Casey must have been pissed at getting injured last year because C1 was his spot out of camp and he looked primed to break out. Instead, Tage broke out. I also said this past season that 2) I’m heartbroken to discover that Casey has another year on his contract given how useless he was early in the year.  
 

So I’ve been high and low on the guy.  
 

Here is my take: Center is a position of strength for the Sabres, both in their current lineup and in the pipeline.  Casey is third in the pecking order. It might hurt a little, but he is expendable. 
 

I am passionately unconvinced the last 40 games of this past season is now Casey’s baseline.  But I’m happy for him.  
 

The Sabres NEED an NHL top four D before opening night.  I think Casey can be a beneficial hockey trade. 
 

(I also like Krebs and would like to see him get more run and NOT on a fourth line…but that’s a separate convo and not directly why I’m ready to move Casey)

[Doohicksie]

On 4/15/2023 at 1:11 PM, Dr. Who said:

He's a guy that can play competently on any of the top 3 lines which makes him valuable.

You don't think Mitts could play shut-down fourth line?  I think he totally could.

[Doohicksie]

31 minutes ago, Porous Five Hole said:

Not to get sidetracked, but I’ve said in the past that 1) Casey must have been pissed at getting injured last year because C1 was his spot out of camp and he looked primed to break out. Instead, Tage broke out.

I hate when people say everything happens for a reason, but honestly I don't think Casey would have broken out last year like Tage did if Casey had stayed healthy.  I think he would have been weighed down by the responsibility of 1C and would have been mediocre at best.  As it turned out he was sidelined and had another year or so to work his craft.  When he finally got the opportunity at the end of this season, he was ready.  I don't think he was quite ready at the beginning of last year.  The forge of adversity made Mitts the player he is today.

Edited April 19, 2023 by Doohickie

[Porous Five Hole]

38 minutes ago, Doohickie said:

I hate when people say everything happens for a reason, but honestly I don't think Casey would have broken out last year like Tage did if Casey had stayed healthy.  I think he would have been weighed down by the responsibility of 1C and would have been mediocre at best.  As it turned out he was sidelined and had another year or so to work his craft.  When he finally got the opportunity at the end of this season, he was ready.  I don't think he was quite ready at the beginning of last year.  The forge of adversity made Mitts the player he is today.

You might be right and my take could spoil like milk, but I think Casey’s stock is high right now and I believe Buffalo needs a top 4D more than a 3C, so I’m taking my chances. 

[French Collection]

2 minutes ago, Porous Five Hole said:

You might be right and my take could spoil like milk, but I think Casey’s stock is high right now and I believe Buffalo needs a top 4D more than a 3C, so I’m taking my chances. 

I think VO and a draft pick can procure a 4D. Casey has way more value to Buffalo going forward.

[Porous Five Hole]

21 minutes ago, French Collection said:

I think VO and a draft pick can procure a 4D. Casey has way more value to Buffalo going forward.

I hope you’re right and VO’s goal scoring prowess is valuable, but I’m going to suggest that the average AAV of a top six forward elsewhere is less than a 3C role here for CM…so I am ready to flip him for the betterment of the D corps.
 

If Casey is traded for a good D,  the Sabres get better and Casey makes more money as a premier top six forward. Casey should want to be a top six forward instead of a third line guy in Buffalo.  There’s just no room for him here in the top six.

I would not commit to Casey long-term when there’s an opportunity to upgrade the D with him as an asset as a trade chip. 

Edited April 19, 2023 by Porous Five Hole

[Dr. Who]

1 hour ago, Doohickie said:

You don't think Mitts could play shut-down fourth line?  I think he totally could.

It never crossed my mind to consider it. I was focused on his versatility across the top three.

[French Collection]

3 minutes ago, Porous Five Hole said:

I hope you’re right and VO’s goal scoring prowess is valuable, but I’m going to suggest that the average AAV of a top six forward elsewhere is less than a 3C role here for CM…so I am ready to flip him for the betterment of the D corps.
 

If Casey is traded for a good D,  the Sabres get better and Casey makes more money as a premier top six forward. Casey should want to be a top six forward instead of a third line guy in Buffalo.  There’s just no room for him here in the top six.

I would not commit to Casey long-term when there’s an opportunity to upgrade the D with him as an asset as a trade chip. 

I am not ready to give Mitts a 6-7 year deal but his versatility is valuable. Maybe he ends up on the third line but with PP time, sliding up the lineup when the bench is shortened and filling in the top 6 for injuries he could end up with more minutes than some top 6 guys.

I want to see a team with 3 scoring lines so he is important to make that happen.

I think a 4D can be found in UFA (Graves, Dumba) as well as a VO+ trade.

[dudacek]

12 minutes ago, Porous Five Hole said:

I hope you’re right and VO’s goal scoring prowess is valuable, but I’m going to suggest that the average AAV of a top six forward elsewhere is less than a 3C role here for CM…so I am ready to flip him for the betterment of the D corps.
 

If Casey is traded for a good D,  the Sabres get better and Casey makes more money as a premier top six forward. Casey should want to be a top six forward instead of a third line guy in Buffalo.  There’s just no room for him here in the top six.

I would not commit to Casey long-term when there’s an opportunity to upgrade the D with him as an asset as a trade chip. 

The flaw in this argument is portraying Casey as a “3rd line guy”.

A better argument would be to acknowledge him as the team’s 5th forward: it’s reflected in his ice time and it’s reflected in his production. Maybe the kids will eventually push past him, but right now they haven’t and it’s not particularly close.

 

[dudacek]

#5 forwards salary-wise make between $3.2 and 4.2 million

#5 forwards production-wise score between 35 and 40 points

Casey Mittelstadt made $2.5 million and scored 59 points.

If you could convince him to sign a similar contract to the 4 year $4.4 million deal just inked by the very comparable Filip Chytil, I would do it.

The affordable deals we gave Tage and Cozens creates some flexibility and it’s a very tradeable deal if you need to create space for a breakout Quinn or Savoie.

Edited April 19, 2023 by dudacek

[Porous Five Hole]

9 hours ago, dudacek said:

The flaw in this argument is portraying Casey as a “3rd line guy”.

A better argument would be to acknowledge him as the team’s 5th forward: it’s reflected in his ice time and it’s reflected in his production. Maybe the kids will eventually push past him, but right now they haven’t and it’s not particularly close.

 

You’re right that Casey was the 5th best forward last year and it was not close. 

Barring injury, do you believe that Casey is a 60 pt player for the next four years? I’m not buying that and would prefer to sell high. I could be wrong, but the prospect pool at the forward position makes me worry less about that. 

[dudacek]

1 minute ago, Porous Five Hole said:

You’re right that Casey was the 5th best forward last year and it was not close. 

Barring injury, do you believe that Casey is a 60 pt player for the next four years? I’m not buying that and would prefer to sell high. I could be wrong, but the prospect pool at the forward position makes me worry less about that. 

Believe, no. Think it’s possible, sure.

For me, I think I’d open extension talks this summer and it comes down to how much money Casey wants.

[GASabresIUFAN]

6 minutes ago, Porous Five Hole said:

You’re right that Casey was the 5th best forward last year and it was not close. 

Barring injury, do you believe that Casey is a 60 pt player for the next four years? I’m not buying that and would prefer to sell high. I could be wrong, but the prospect pool at the forward position makes me worry less about that. 

I believe Casey can become a 70 pt player.  When also replacing a young vet like Casey, you have to ask how long until the prospect gives you what Casey does already.  Let’s take Kulich for example.  He’ll arguably be NHL ready after next season when Casey’s contract expires.  Is Kulich a better prospect than JJP? I think they are about the same.  Well JJP put up 32 pts and was occasionally scratched from the lineup.  A solid rookie year but not anywhere close to what Casey brings.  So how long until JJP or Kulich reaches Casey current level? 2 years? More?  

This team’s window is now.  Sometimes it’s best to keep what you have.  Admittedly the cap will force KA to move on from some guys, but that won’t be anytime soon here.  I do agree however that Casey is one guy who won’t finish his career here.  I surmise KA extends him another 3-4 years and then Casey will move on.

[MattPie]

12 hours ago, Porous Five Hole said:

I appreciate the conversation.  
You need to give to get, and Casey has value being a center making $2.5M & coming off a nearly 60 pt season.  Not to mention he is headed to RFA status, so future team control is also a bonus. There’s value in all of that.  
 

Not to get sidetracked, but I’ve said in the past that 1) Casey must have been pissed at getting injured last year because C1 was his spot out of camp and he looked primed to break out. Instead, Tage broke out. I also said this past season that 2) I’m heartbroken to discover that Casey has another year on his contract given how useless he was early in the year.  
 

So I’ve been high and low on the guy.  
 

Here is my take: Center is a position of strength for the Sabres, both in their current lineup and in the pipeline.  Casey is third in the pecking order. It might hurt a little, but he is expendable. 
 

I am passionately unconvinced the last 40 games of this past season is now Casey’s baseline.  But I’m happy for him.  
 

The Sabres NEED an NHL top four D before opening night.  I think Casey can be a beneficial hockey trade. 
 

(I also like Krebs and would like to see him get more run and NOT on a fourth line…but that’s a separate convo and not directly why I’m ready to move Casey)

 

10 hours ago, French Collection said:

I think VO and a draft pick can procure a 4D. Casey has way more value to Buffalo going forward.

This.

The Sabres need a Muel2 (or whatever style player fits with Power). Would you trade Casey for Samuelson+pick, or trade VO+pick for Samuelson? I'm choosing the latter every time given where the team is right now.

There is merit that Casey's stock right now is as high as it's ever been. If he's consistent next year it goes even higher, and more importantly, he makes the 2023-24 Sabres a better team than any prospect positioned to fill his spot.

Edited April 19, 2023 by MattPie

[oddoublee]

10 hours ago, dudacek said:

The flaw in this argument is portraying Casey as a “3rd line guy”.

A better argument would be to acknowledge him as the team’s 5th forward: it’s reflected in his ice time and it’s reflected in his production. Maybe the kids will eventually push past him, but right now they haven’t and it’s not particularly close.

 

So glad someone finally said this - the 3C thing does not apply as he is clearly a top 6 forward. Maybe everyone fell in love with the Cozen, Quinn & Peterka line so they pigeon holed him - but truth is - Casey is ahead of both Quinn and Peterka (although I believe Quinn has a good chance of passing him next year, or the year after).

With Kulich being most likely 2-4 years away - Savoie being 2-4 years away - and Peterka looking more like a middle 6 player...signing Casey should be a priority. 

4 years at 4.5 is a no brainer. If he is willing to six years...with cap increases - I wouldn't be upset with 5.5-6 million for him. 60 point forwards that can play C & W and line slide are very very valuable to have...and his teammates love him. 

 

[Pimlach]

12 hours ago, Weave said:

You can’t even get it write for other teams’ games.  LOL

Again, no booze either.  Just an old guy typing in the dark.  

I was playing my guitar, watching hockey with the sound off, and posting on occasion - 

[Randall Flagg]

28 minutes ago, Pimlach said:

Again, no booze either.  Just an old guy typing in the dark.  

I was playing my guitar, watching hockey with the sound off, and posting on occasion - 

Are you good? I'm trying to push through a sort of intermediate wall, where I can learn most of the guitar parts for most songs I know and eventually play them well, but feel as if there is a chasm between me and real guitarists 

[inkman]

50 minutes ago, Pimlach said:

 Just an old guy typing in the dark.  

Worst Hoobastank song ever. 

[Pimlach]

Just now, Randall Flagg said:

Are you good? I'm trying to push through a sort of intermediate wall, where I can learn most of the guitar parts for most songs I know and eventually play them well, but feel as if there is a chasm between me and real guitarists 

Am I good?  That is a hard question to answer.  I can play, and some people considered it "good" at one time, but I took off several decades off while forging a career and raising three kids - I put the guitar away for too long (a minor regret for me).   Since my retirement in June of 2021 I have been playing a lot.  I have a friend that sings and plays which helps get me going. 

I think I can get a lot better now that I have more time.   I am learning faster and I am more confident than ever to just let it rip.  There are way more and much better learning tools today than when I started in the late 70's.   

It sounds like you are at the point where you need to play with other people, in a band if possible, to get to another level.  I am guessing you can learn the chords and play the rhythm parts, and eventually play some of the leads, but you are not comfortable with soloing or improvising - correct?   

Play with other people and that step will gradually come.   If you think you can, then you will.   Youtube has a ton of stuff to help you, I am just scratching the surface of what is there.  

[Pimlach]

11 minutes ago, inkman said:

Worst Hoobastank song ever. 

Had to look that one up - Crawling in the dark?  

Electronic and heavy stuff there @inkman

[JustOneParade]

1 hour ago, oddoublee said:

So glad someone finally said this - the 3C thing does not apply as he is clearly a top 6 forward. Maybe everyone fell in love with the Cozen, Quinn & Peterka line so they pigeon holed him - but truth is - Casey is ahead of both Quinn and Peterka (although I believe Quinn has a good chance of passing him next year, or the year after).

With Kulich being most likely 2-4 years away - Savoie being 2-4 years away - and Peterka looking more like a middle 6 player...signing Casey should be a priority. 

4 years at 4.5 is a no brainer. If he is willing to six years...with cap increases - I wouldn't be upset with 5.5-6 million for him. 60 point forwards that can play C & W and line slide are very very valuable to have...and his teammates love him. 

 

Agree. Casey is a top-6 forward. Get CM on Cozens' wing along with Quinn and he'll be a regular 60 point player and be the perfect complement skill-wise to the other two. And provide a solid option to step into the center slot if needed.

For me, I'm using other assets to acquire a (badly needed) 4D. And lots of other parts are available for a third line.

[Taro T]

2 hours ago, MattPie said:

 

This.

The Sabres need a Muel2 (or whatever style player fits with Power). Would you trade Casey for Samuelson+pick, or trade VO+pick for Samuelson? I'm choosing the latter every time given where the team is right now.

There is merit that Casey's stock right now is as high as it's ever been. If he's consistent next year it goes even higher, and more importantly, he makes the 2023-24 Sabres a better team than any prospect positioned to fill his spot.

Considering if they trade away Mittelstadt they now have made the F grouping weaker and the number of GOOD 4D options about to hit FA, would much rather see that Samuelsson V2 brought in via FA or a package including Olofsson, the 2023 1st, and possibly a non-A list prospect.  A 28 goal scorer who seems like he could get to 30 with some PP1 usage and the 13th overall pick both have legitimate value.  Tack on a Weisbach (or if absolutely necessary Rousek) and that should bring something useful back even though there isn't room on the Sabres as currently constructed for either Olofsson or Weisbach (and Rousek would be a spare too at this point).

Capitalism at it's finest.  Do what you do well (draft and develop F's) and use your surplus to get what you need but don't do well (draft G's and D).  And, through next year, the Sabres also have a surplus at cap space.  (Still disappointed they didn't weaponize it while they had far too much of it; but that water has already moved under the bridge and drifted out to sea.)

Really hope they can get the D they need via FA (or the 2 of them that would be good to have) so that that package of Olofsson, the 2023 1st, and a non-A list prospect could get converted into other futures to keep this window that certainly seems to be opening open for a very long time.

 

[French Collection]

1 hour ago, JustOneParade said:

Agree. Casey is a top-6 forward. Get CM on Cozens' wing along with Quinn and he'll be a regular 60 point player and be the perfect complement skill-wise to the other two. And provide a solid option to step into the center slot if needed.

For me, I'm using other assets to acquire a (badly needed) 4D. And lots of other parts are available for a third line.

That is a line I can see having a lot of success. Cozens’ speed on zone entries and forechecks, Quinn’s elusiveness and shot and Mitts setting the table with board work and slick feeds.

[French Collection]

30 minutes ago, Taro T said:

Considering if they trade away Mittelstadt they now have made the F grouping weaker and the number of GOOD 4D options about to hit FA, would much rather see that Samuelsson V2 brought in via FA or a package including Olofsson, the 2023 1st, and possibly a non-A list prospect.  A 28 goal scorer who seems like he could get to 30 with some PP1 usage and the 13th overall pick both have legitimate value.  Tack on a Weisbach (or if absolutely necessary Rousek) and that should bring something useful back even though there isn't room on the Sabres as currently constructed for either Olofsson or Weisbach (and Rousek would be a spare too at this point).

Capitalism at it's finest.  Do what you do well (draft and develop F's) and use your surplus to get what you need but don't do well (draft G's and D).  And, through next year, the Sabres also have a surplus at cap space.  (Still disappointed they didn't weaponize it while they had far too much of it; but that water has already moved under the bridge and drifted out to sea.)

Really hope they can get the D they need via FA (or the 2 of them that would be good to have) so that that package of Olofsson, the 2023 1st, and a non-A list prospect could get converted into other futures to keep this window that certainly seems to be opening open for a very long time.

 

Spot on with keeping Mitts.

I think they can get a 4D in UFA and then use VO + for an upgrade. The upgrade can be gritty 2 way forward, 5-6D or a veteran G.

There will be opportunities as well to take advantage of cap strapped teams who want a shiny new UFA or just sign their RFAs. I’m thinking a Nick Leddy move from the Isles a few years ago or Pacioretty + just to take his salary.

[Taro T]

7 minutes ago, French Collection said:

That is a line I can see having a lot of success. Cozens’ speed on zone entries and forechecks, Quinn’s elusiveness and shot and Mitts setting the table with board work and slick feeds.

Had hoped they'd try that for more than just part of 1 game down the stretch.  It didn't work at all the little bit it was tried, but really expect a lot of that was neither Mittelstadt nor Quinn knowing what the other was going to do.  They looked extremely out of sync when it was tried.