Has Casey Mittelstadt changed any minds?

[TRIP65]

On 4/9/2023 at 1:58 PM, dudacek said:

I think statistically they were in pretty similar places at the same juncture of their careers.

I think eye-test wise Mitts was creating more offensively in his D4 season, but that’s largely because of how Donnie used him post-Ralph compared to how he uses Krebs right now.

I also think eye-test wise Krebs is far more advanced as a puckhound and in his defensive reads than Mitts was two years ago. And I look at how far Mitts has come since in those areas. SDS kinda used Krebs role between Girgs and KO to dismiss Krebs, when the fact of the matter is that it’s a plus. Krebs is getting 15 minutes a night in a primarily defensive role.

My take on Krebs is that his game is coming along nicely and I won’t be surprised to see him become a pace-pushing, 2-way, middle-6 forward.

Kinda like we’ve seen from Mitts.

At what other younger players expense? We have too many prospects we need to come up and Krebs numbers suck if you want to make playoffs.

Add to that he can't play Wing, Middlestat is far the better player if he stays Healthy.

Great year for Middlestat, I thought he was done when he failed to replace O'Reilly for 2nd line center. That usually destroys a career. He then got hurt two years in a row.

Right now, you could keep him but then Krebs needs to go in trade. Not sure he can go back to Rochester. No time for him to develop with what he has shown. Get more out of Savoie and/or Kulich.

[Pimlach]

On 4/11/2023 at 1:19 PM, dudacek said:

Jost is a useful bottom-sixer: he works hard, is versatile and reasonably responsible, and has more skill than most bottom-sixers. 

I wonder if he is strong enough in any specialty areas to keep around once Quinn, Krebs and Peterka fully come in to their own? He’s kind of a Jack of all trades, master of none. Given the high skill level they Sabres have up front, and pushing from the farm, they may prefer a more one-dimensional player with grit, or faceoff or PK, or shutdown ability on the 4th line. He seems to have lost his spot on the PK.

His versatility makes him a perfect fit to me as next year’s 13th forward, but he could go the way of Hinostroza.

I’d offer him a one-year deal for no more than he makes now, or 2 years at a pay cut, and see what happens. I like him, and he seems like a good guy, just not real sure he will have a role beyond next year.

 

Agree.  Jost is a good bottom 6 player that does what is asked and he works hard.  I don’t see a special skill - physical grit, faceoffs, etc.   I do prefer him over Hinostroza as he can play center and kill penalties.   

Right now I see him as equal to Krebs, but Krebs may have yet another level, we shall see. 
 

Edited April 15, 2023 by Pimlach

[TRIP65]

On 4/10/2023 at 12:52 AM, dudacek said:

You talking about the same Casey Mittelstadt who went from 25 points in his first season to 9 and a demotion to the minor leagues in his 2nd?

Krebs points per game may have dropped from his 1st season to his 2nd, but his game has not. His actual points, his +/- and his fancystats improved this year while his role, position and responsibilities got a lot tougher. He’s a better, more trustworthy hockey player than he was a year ago.

I don’t have a strong opinion as to which player will have a better career; certainly Casey has hit a stage over the past 40 games that Peyton is yet to approach and may never will, so Casey is in the lead. But the idea that Mitts was a vastly superior player at the same stage is odd to me. It’s certainly not something that is proven out by a better point per game rate.

They were/are both talented young hockey players finding their way, seeing some bumps and trying to carve out a role. I see nothing to suggest Krebs can’t make similar progress over his 2nd 120 NHL games as to what Mittelstadt did in his.

 

 

Krebs is done. Even if Middlestat traded, there are younger players that can play Center/Wing. Krebs has proven to be one dimensional position wise and only a Medicore Center at best. You think he gets to Cozens level? If NOT then he must go to someone else to develop. Too many prospects

[dudacek]

21 minutes ago, TRIP65 said:

At what other younger players expense? We have too many prospects we need to come up and Krebs numbers suck if you want to make playoffs.

Add to that he can't play Wing, Middlestat is far the better player if he stays Healthy.

Great year for Middlestat, I thought he was done when he failed to replace O'Reilly for 2nd line center. That usually destroys a career. He then got hurt two years in a row.

Right now, you could keep him but then Krebs needs to go in trade. Not sure he can go back to Rochester. No time for him to develop with what he has shown. Get more out of Savoie and/or Kulich.

 

16 minutes ago, TRIP65 said:

Krebs is done. Even if Middlestat traded, there are younger players that can play Center/Wing. Krebs has proven to be one dimensional position wise and only a Medicore Center at best. You think he gets to Cozens level? If NOT then he must go to someone else to develop. Too many prospects

Some interesting reasoning going on here.

Krebs scores a point per game in the minors last year, puts up 25 points in his first full NHL season and is “done”. 

To make room for Kulich, who (checks notes) produced at a lesser rate in the minors this year, than Krebs did last year?

And this comes in the same post you admit you were wrong about Mittelstadt, 

OK.

Edited April 15, 2023 by dudacek

[TRIP65]

On 4/10/2023 at 1:49 AM, Sabres73 said:

But the prospect that would replace him would be a rookie that would need a couple years to develop as well, so you're not getting much of a benefit overall for that move. I don't think he's that easily replaceable. Trade VO/Hinestroza/Jost before Casey is a better idea IMO

Hinestroza is a UFA. Jost is 4th line Center. If Middlestat stays, he is the 3rd line Center, proven that with 1st line play.

My thinking is Middlestat is traded cause we have two Centers who can come up. Middlestat brings in a good player.

Kulich or Savoie can man 3rd line Center next year. They can keep Krebs just in case and trade if Kulich or Savoie win spot in Preseason, then trade Krebs.

Jost was gotten mid season and has played well for Sabres. Good two way Center (1st round pedigree)

Olofsson won't be given away, had 28 goals. His shot is top line stuff but NOT a two way guy, streaky also. Probably work well on Third line with protection

Olofsson   Middlestat/Kulich/Savoie   Rousek

If Middlestat stays then Jost and/or Krebs go in trades. Top two lines are made without a trade for Top 4 Winger.

No way Kulich and/or Savoie are not on roster next year

Could see Greenway  Savoie   Kulich line

 

 

 

 

[North Buffalo]

Trip I think you are off base on Krebs.. does he have some development to go and probably another 10-15lbs to put on... but his speed as a rookie, learning how to forecheck this year and his tenacious enthusiast attitude will only help this team... you are too eager to throw the baby out with the bath water imo.... like coffee you gotta let it percolate before it becomes stronger.

Edited April 15, 2023 by North Buffalo

[GASabresIUFAN]

On 4/10/2023 at 10:01 AM, dudacek said:

If you want to say the stats prove Casey was "vastly superior" over their NHL starts, I'm not seeing it in the numbers, and I didn't see it watching them play either.

Do you still hold the opinion that Casey is not a vastly superior player to Krebs?

[dudacek]

Just now, GASabresIUFAN said:

Do you still hold the opinion that Casey is not a vastly superior player to Krebs?

I think you need to re-read that chain of posts.

My position was basically that Casey and Krebs had similar production over their first 2 pro seasons.

Pretty sure I specifically said Casey has reached a level that Krebs may never reach.

[dudacek]

My point being that I didn’t give up on Casey after 100 games, and I’m not going to give up on Krebs.

[TRIP65]

On 4/10/2023 at 1:55 PM, Pimlach said:

Jumping the gun a bit here.  

Mitts is on a good stretch that we all hope can continue, but he promotion to 1C is driven by many factors, including his good play.   He is in the 1C role because Tage is hurt and DG jumbled things up in an effort to get 2 lines going.  The kids that played on the Cozens line are being sheltered and now on the 3rd line.    Good to see Mitts rise to the occasion.  

Krebs has not given up.  He is playing in his first full season, he is close to being a rookie without being one.   His offensive production is down from most expectations but his role and the play of his wingers have something to do with that.   His point total for a 4C is better than any totals put up by more experienced 4C's such as Larsson and Lazar.      

I never saw Krebs as a better raw talent than Mitts btw.  Krebs has work to do to get stronger and to improve his shot.  

Krebs has to get faster too, won't be with us with 3 Centers drafted 1st round last year. If he could play winger, maybe he stays, but 1 dimensional position players won't stay on a 4th line. Jost is better for that right now. Krebs, no rush to trade, keep for camp and Injury right now. He won't be starting for Sabres next year on top four lines. For that matter Girgenson can be resigned too for flexibilty and 13 man in too if he wants to stay. Can play all positions if needed.

[Porous Five Hole]

If the center spine is TNT & Cozens, what would an almost 60 point center making 2.5M next year to RFA be worth on the open market? 

Is that a top four D?

I’m happy for Casey and I’m not adamant that he gets traded, but showed this year that 3C isn’t his peak. His value has never been higher.
The Sabres also have reinforcements coming. 
 

Get me a D and set Casey free. 

[dudacek]

Just now, TRIP65 said:

Krebs has to get faster too, won't be with us with 3 Centers drafted 1st round last year. If he could play winger, maybe he stays, but 1 dimensional position players won't stay on a 4th line. Jost is better for that right now. Krebs, no rush to trade, keep for camp and Injury right now. He won't be starting for Sabres next year on top four lines. For that matter Girgenson can be resigned too for flexibilty and 13 man in too if he wants to stay. Can play all positions if needed.

Weird, I always thought the 4th line was exactly where 1-dimensional players stayed.

Jost is not better than Krebs right now and has less potential to develop.

And this idea that Krebs isn’t fast enough is absolutely bizarre.

[TRIP65]

On 4/11/2023 at 11:16 AM, inkman said:

The rubber is going to meet the road with all of these guys (well maybe not VO as he might be jettisoned due to poor fit purposes) when their contracts are up.  Then your depth from smart drafting pays off.  Pay Mitts $5 mill (maybe $6?) as a bottom six depth scorer or replace him with a young player on an entry level contract.  Good problems to have for sure. 

If Mitts not traded, you don't give contract, RFA, so you see what is offered out there to him. You can match or get lots of picks. He is cheap next year and Dahlin HAS to be signed after July 1st. Need room for trades to get better. Money isn't going to a guy who played 1 in 5 good years.

[TRIP65]

On 4/11/2023 at 12:43 PM, Weave said:

Center position might have some interesting competition next season.

Mitts, Tage, Cozens, Krebs, Jost (is he signed for next season?)

Would like at least one of those names stand out as a face off guy and a shutdown guy. We are missing that aspect.

Forgot the 3 Centers drafted last year. Two are knocking on the door REAL HARD

[Pimlach]

30 minutes ago, TRIP65 said:

Krebs is done. Even if Middlestat traded, there are younger players that can play Center/Wing. Krebs has proven to be one dimensional position wise and only a Medicore Center at best. You think he gets to Cozens level? If NOT then he must go to someone else to develop. Too many prospects

We all just saw Mitts take a huge step after 200+ games in 5 seasons, yet you can confidently say that Krebs is done after 130 games over 2 seasons?  

I do not see Krebs getting to Cozens level, but I didn’t see Mitts emerging either.   

I don’t get the one dimensional comment either.   He can play center and wing.   He has offensive skills and checking/PK skills   

I think Krebs will get another season to develop his game in Buffalo, if Savoie and Kulich push him out then he will be moved, but probably not before that.   Unless of course another team wants him this off season in a trade package that we cannot refuse.  

[TRIP65]

On 4/11/2023 at 1:17 PM, French Collection said:

I would give him more time to get stronger and gain more experience. Even if he ends up staying on the 4th line, he could be that 4C for a long time. He adds more offense than Larsson, Girgs, Sheahan, Eakin etc… 

I would like him to become the faceoff guru, that would add to his value.

He may improve enough to be a solid 3C.

So how do you get 3 centers drafted 1st round into the line up? Jost and Krebs are young. I would take Jost before Krebs, can play Wing. Your making like all players on team move forward. There are at least 3 in Rochester who can make roster over the people on it now.

Think Krebs is odd man out but let camp decide that.

Middlestat is the one I am intrigued with.

If he can land a 4th position 1 dimensional defensive man to go with Powers than I would trade him for that. Just have to many players

Won't be upset if he stays now on 2.5 million, two way player now and two positions.

[TRIP65]

On 4/11/2023 at 1:26 PM, Cheektorado said:

A good a place as any to ask the question to the board, what are the terms that make sense if GMKA wants Jost back?

Would it be a repeat of his last 2-year $4M total contract?  My untrained hockey eye sees him playing very hard to end the season.  I think he has a place on the team for another 2 years.  Of course, he like so many other Sabres, is weak on FOs.  He is getting some decent PK time, not sure how his play is there.  With KO and Girgs maybe both leaving (I am leaning on Grigs getting another 2 year) it's leaving a hole on the PK.  I do like his hustle and tenacity.

Have to keep two of these on the roster for Penalty Kill, not sure all three can fit. Remember, they have to give you some offense.

Girgs

Jost

Rousek

pick your two

 

My two are Jost and Rousek

[TRIP65]

2 hours ago, Randall Flagg said:

His production skyrocketed when he was put on the first line, and the line improved its metrics despite facing the same top competition. 

Compare Tage's stats to Middlestat's. Compare Middlestat to Cozens. Compare Middlestat to Tuch. Compare Middlestat to Skinner. Compare Middlestat to Quinn. Compare Middlestat to Peterka

Only one he beats out is Peterka

[TRIP65]

2 hours ago, dudacek said:

In terms of production by a Sabre, Casey’s 59 points are the 14th most of the past decade. His 44 assists are the 5th most during that period, more than Eichel had in 7 of his 8 NHL seasons.

For comparison, Sam Reinhart’s most productive Sabre seasons were 50, 50 and 65 points; Ryan O’Reilly’s were 61, 60 and 55; Evander Kane’s 35, 43 and 40.

@Weave used to talk about how, if the Sabres ever got good, Reinhart could be their Patrick Sharp: a versatile 5/6th forward capable of moving around the lineup as situations demand.

Sharp became that player for the Hawks in his mid-20s.

https://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/stats/pdisplay.php?pid=54873
 

I wonder if (Hope?) we just saw Mitts take a similar step.

Who do you kick out of the TOP 6?

[TRIP65]

1 hour ago, Pimlach said:

Greenway looked a lot better the last few weeks.  Assuming we keep the first two lines the same, the 3rd line could also be Savioe-Mitts-Greenway.   

Fourth line and spare forward possibilities are Krebs, Jost, Zemgus, Kyle, and Rousek or Kulich.   Plus we have VO and Vinnie.  Jost, Zemgus, Vinnie, and Kyle are all TBD for next season.  

End of the season we saw Mitts working well with the first line.  We saw Greenway, Cozens, and Tage look pretty good too.  We could see some interesting new combinations next season. 

As you well know, we have a bunch more forwards in the prospect pool, its time for Adams to clear out some forwards to upgrade the defense.  

"As you well know, we have a bunch more forwards in the prospect pool, its time for Adams to clear out some forwards to upgrade the defense."

 

DEFINETLY

[TRIP65]

1 hour ago, Pimlach said:

Agree.  Jost is a good bottom 6 player that does what is asked and he works hard.  I don’t see a special skill - physical grit, faceoffs, etc.   I do prefer him over Hinostroza as he can play center and kill penalties.   

Right now I see him as equal to Krebs, but Krebs may have yet another level, we shall see. 
 

Jost can play Center and Wing. That puts him over Krebs right now. Could care less about Potential, I have potential but like beer or I would be an ALLSTAR  🤣

[dudacek]

3 minutes ago, TRIP65 said:

Who do you kick out of the TOP 6?

I have no idea what you are talking about.

I think that as of this moment Mittelstadt is our 5th best forward.

I don’t believe that necessarily means he has to be on the 2nd line. Coaches deploy players based on chemistry and matchups, not heirarchy and are constantly reshuffling the deck throughout the year based on the above.

[Randall Flagg]

20 minutes ago, TRIP65 said:

Compare Tage's stats to Middlestat's. Compare Middlestat to Cozens. Compare Middlestat to Tuch. Compare Middlestat to Skinner. Compare Middlestat to Quinn. Compare Middlestat to Peterka

Only one he beats out is Peterka

That's not what I said 

The top line with 120 minutes of mittelstadt centering took more shots, allowed fewer shots, scored more goals, allowed fewer goals, had more scoring chances, and allowed fewer scoring chances per game/minute/whatever than it did with Tage. I posted the stats in the game day thread. This does not mean I think Tage is a worse player than Mitts. I just countered SDS's insinuation because it didn't seem fair. I'm not sure why I did this because he's the worst poster on the board and pretends I don't exist but anyway 

[Weave]

2 hours ago, dudacek said:

In terms of production by a Sabre, Casey’s 59 points are the 14th most of the past decade. His 44 assists are the 5th most during that period, more than Eichel had in 7 of his 8 NHL seasons.

For comparison, Sam Reinhart’s most productive Sabre seasons were 50, 50 and 65 points; Ryan O’Reilly’s were 61, 60 and 55; Evander Kane’s 35, 43 and 40.

@Weave used to talk about how, if the Sabres ever got good, Reinhart could be their Patrick Sharp: a versatile 5/6th forward capable of moving around the lineup as situations demand.

Sharp became that player for the Hawks in his mid-20s.

https://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/stats/pdisplay.php?pid=54873
 

I wonder if (Hope?) we just saw Mitts take a similar step.

Yesterday I mentioned that Mitts may be the Sharpe we thought Sam might become.  Not sure which thread.

So we had the same line of thought 

[TRIP65]

59 minutes ago, dudacek said:

 

Some interesting reasoning going on here.

Krebs scores a point per game in the minors last year, puts up 25 points in his first full NHL season and is “done”. 

To make room for Kulich, who (checks notes) produced at a lesser rate in the minors this year, than Krebs did last year?

And this comes in the same post you admit you were wrong about Mittelstadt, 

OK.

 

Mind you Krebs had NHL experience in LVK

 2021 Amerks       Krebs    18  4   11    15    -12    .75

2022 Amerks        Kulich   61  24  22   46  -7      .75  

 

So how did Krebs out perform Kulich in the minors?  Krebs  .22 goals per game   Kulick  .39 goals per game.   -12 to -7 and 18 to 61 games played, so in 18 games he is a -12????

1 hour ago, North Buffalo said:

Trip I think you are off base on Krebs.. does he have some development to go and probably another 10-15lbs to put on... but his speed as a rookie, learning how to forecheck this year and his tenacious enthusiast attitude will only help this team... you are too eager to throw the baby out with the bath water imo.... like coffee you gotta let it percolate before it becomes stronger.

Had a full year

Gonna keep Savoie and/or Kulich in Rochester????  Jost????  Middlestat at Center?????   Krebs Winger????