Has Casey Mittelstadt changed any minds?

[GASabresIUFAN]

1 hour ago, dudacek said:

You talking about the same Casey Mittelstadt who went from 25 points in his first season to 9 and a demotion to the minor leagues in his 2nd?

Why do you keep leaving out the games played?  I've documented in another thread Mitts' progress with each 40 or so games he has played in the NHL, and every forward deserves a pass for their time with RK. I've wondered for a few years now if Mitts would have ever needed to be sent down if he had played for a better coach than RK.  

However, here are the numbers

Year 1 - 1st half - 40 games 11 pts (.28 pts/gp)

Year 1 - 2nd half - 37 games 14 pts (.38 pts/gp) - .33 pts/gp for the season

Year 2 - 31 games 9 pts (.29 pts/gp) - the RK effect

Year 3 - 41 games 22 pts (.54 pts/gp)

Year 4 - 40 games 19 pts (.48 pts/gp)

Year 5 - Ist half 41 games 25 pts (.61 pts/gp)

Year 5 - 2nd half 37 games 28 pts (.76 pts/gp) - .68 pts/gp for the season ytd.

I don't mind that you are giving Krebs the benefit of the doubt.  He is 2nd in hits by forwards, his FO% has improved 7%, but is still only 44 %.  Because he was placed with KO/Z early much of the year, I get the argument that his offense may not improve, but the production decrease is very disappointing.  Also most of his metrics like Fenwick and Corsi are about the same year over year.

Here are his stats.

Year 1 - 57 games 22 pts (.39 pts/gp)

Year 2 - 48 games 22 pts (.46 pts/gp)

Year 3 - 70 games 25 pts (.36 pts/gp) and only 3 pts in his last 10 games.

Edited April 10, 2023 by GASabresIUFAN

[French Collection]

6 hours ago, Pimlach said:

Krebs already has had two better point total seasons than Larsson ever had.  He is less stout than Larsson but a better offensive player.  Certainly worth another season to see what he can do.  I like his scrappy team first style. 

Krebs does have more upside than Larsson. He is also angrier but Angry Peyton doesn’t have that ring to it.

[North Buffalo]

11 minutes ago, French Collection said:

Krebs does have more upside than Larsson. He is also angrier but Angry Peyton doesn’t have that ring to it.

But Pesky Peyton does

[matter2003]

8 hours ago, Contempt said:

I don't care for the player and this would be a good use of the asset 

I think you should stop hating the player so much that you can't even be honest about what he is doing right now and continue bashing him for what he was doing 2 and 3 years ago. Your bias is overwhelming to the point you can't have an honest evaluation of him so to be honest your opinion has no value to me since it's based on your hatred of the player and not reality.

Edited April 10, 2023 by matter2003

[dudacek]

7 hours ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

Why do you keep leaving out the games played?  I've documented in another thread Mitts' progress with each 40 or so games he has played in the NHL, and every forward deserves a pass for their time with RK. I've wondered for a few years now if Mitts would have ever needed to be sent down if he had played for a better coach than RK.  

However, here are the numbers

Year 1 - 77 games 25 pts (.38 pts/gp) - (.33 pts/gp for the season)

Year 2 - 31 games 9 pts (.29 pts/gp)

Year 3 - 41 games 22 pts (.54 pts/gp)

Year 4 - 40 games 19 pts (.48 pts/gp)

Year 5 - Ist half 41 games 25 pts (.61 pts/gp)

Year 5 - 2nd half 37 games 28 pts (.76 pts/gp) - .68 pts/gp for the season ytd.

I don't mind that you are giving Krebs the benefit of the doubt.  He is 2nd in hits by forwards, his FO% has improved 7%, but is still only 44 %.  Because he was placed with KO/Z early much of the year, I get the argument that his offense may not improve, but the production decrease is very disappointing.  Also most of his metrics like Fenwick and Corsi are about the same year over year.

Here are his stats.

Year 1 - 57 games 22 pts (.39 pts/gp) (including Vegas)

Year 1 - 48 games 22 pts (.46 pts/gp) (just Buffalo)

Year 2 - 70 games 25 pts (.36 pts/gp)

Why do you ignore the fact that the games played situation is due to the player being healthy scratched?

The bold corrects the error and compares apples to apples in their first pro seasons

If you want to say "the Krueger effect" handwaves Casey's struggles in year 2, I say fair comment.

If you want to say the stats prove Casey was "vastly superior" over their NHL starts, I'm not seeing it in the numbers, and I didn't see it watching them play either.

[Contempt]

3 hours ago, matter2003 said:

I think you should stop hating the player so much that you can't even be honest about what he is doing right now and continue bashing him for what he was doing 2 and 3 years ago. Your bias is overwhelming to the point you can't have an honest evaluation of him so to be honest your opinion has no value to me since it's based on your hatred of the player and not reality.

It's funny, not three months ago there was a thread on this very board asking how bad Casey Mittelstadt is (not started by me btw) Now we can excoriate people for suggesting that he be traded for value. Ok.

9 hours ago, Sabres73 said:

But the prospect that would replace him would be a rookie that would need a couple years to develop as well, so you're not getting much of a benefit overall for that move. I don't think he's that easily replaceable. Trade VO/Hinestroza/Jost before Casey is a better idea IMO

Hinostroza and Jost have zero trade value. VO probably has some.

[matter2003]

2 minutes ago, Contempt said:

It's funny, not three months ago there was a thread on this very board asking how bad Casey Mittelstadt is (not started by me btw) Now we can excoriate people for suggesting that he be traded for value. Ok.

Who cares? Probably it's a person just like you who has his favorite whipping boy and nothing he does will ever change that. Dude could put up 50-70-120 and you'd find something to rip on him about.

 

GTFO with this bullcrap.

Edited April 10, 2023 by matter2003

[Contempt]

3 minutes ago, matter2003 said:

Who cares? Probably it's a person just like you who has his favorite whipping boy and nothing he does will ever change that. Dude could put up 50-70-120 and you'd find something to rip on him about.

 

GTFO with this bullcrap.

You're probably right, I should GTFO with this bullcrap.  He's a pillar of the franchise and will be a key to our success going forward. Untradeable.

[dudacek]

1 minute ago, matter2003 said:

Who cares? Probably it's a person just like you who has his favorite whipping boy and nothing he does will ever change that. Dude could put up 50-70-120 and you'd find something to rip on him about.

 

GTFO with this bullcrap.

Actually, it was me, the same person who started this thread.

I had been reading a lot of Mittelstadt bashing in various threads at the time and wanted to have a discussion as to see what the board in general thought about the topic.

Probably shouldn't be (because the internet) but I remain surprised by how many people interpreted a thread that asked a question as a thread that stated Casey was bad.

[Contempt]

4 minutes ago, dudacek said:

Actually, it was me, the same person who started this thread.

I had been reading a lot of Mittelstadt bashing in various threads at the time and wanted to have a discussion as to see what the board in general thought about the topic.

Probably shouldn't be (because the internet) but I remain surprised by how many people interpreted a thread that asked a question as a thread that stated Casey was bad.

Exactly. A discussion about the topic. Now I can't suggest a player be traded for value, not given away, not sent to Finland or something, without getting told to "GTFO with that bullcrap"  OK.  

He's having a nice April. I won't go back and list March or January because it will trigger someone and they'll tell me I'm cherry picking.

[Sabres73]

55 minutes ago, Contempt said:

Exactly. A discussion about the topic. Now I can't suggest a player be traded for value, not given away, not sent to Finland or something, without getting told to "GTFO with that bullcrap"  OK.  

He's having a nice April. I won't go back and list March or January because it will trigger someone and they'll tell me I'm cherry picking.

And you would be cherry picking, instead of looking at the season in it's entirety.

[Contempt]

3 minutes ago, Sabres73 said:

And you would be cherry picking, instead of looking at the season in it's entirety.

Am I cherry picking those months that are bad or are the rest of you cherry picking the ones that are decent out of this one season and hoping that means he's improved? January was bad February was good, March was bad, and April so far has been good.

[LTS]

1 hour ago, Contempt said:

Exactly. A discussion about the topic. Now I can't suggest a player be traded for value, not given away, not sent to Finland or something, without getting told to "GTFO with that bullcrap"  OK.  

He's having a nice April. I won't go back and list March or January because it will trigger someone and they'll tell me I'm cherry picking.

You can go back to any point you'd like. The concept of improving is one that moves in a forward direction.  As such, looking at history to try and discredit the present is pointless.

The question about Mitts now is whether he will stay at this level of production.  That level of production has value on the team, especially if you improve the scoring ability of the players around him.

Trade?  Maybe.. but between free agency and other resources on the team, I think it would be wider to use those first.

 

[triumph_communes]

Mittelstadt has grown into being a skill player.  He’s our 1C right now regardless of context, that’s an achievement. Hardest work ethic on team  

Krebs has given up and turned grinder.  4th line center and not playing great down the stretch, though has a good work ethic usually.

 

A year ago I think people would’ve guessed the opposite outcome. 

Edited April 10, 2023 by triumph_communes

[Sabres73]

10 minutes ago, Contempt said:

Am I cherry picking those months that are bad or are the rest of you cherry picking the ones that are decent out of this one season and hoping that means he's improved? January was bad February was good, March was bad, and April so far has been good.

I'm not cherrypicking anything, I think Casey has had a good season.

[Contempt]

16 minutes ago, Sabres73 said:

I'm not cherrypicking anything, I think Casey has had a good season.

I agree, which is why I think he's a good sell high candidate for a defenseman.

[Pimlach]

5 hours ago, triumph_communes said:

Mittelstadt has grown into being a skill player.  He’s our 1C right now regardless of context, that’s an achievement. Hardest work ethic on team  

Krebs has given up and turned grinder.  4th line center and not playing great down the stretch, though has a good work ethic usually.

 

A year ago I think people would’ve guessed the opposite outcome. 

Jumping the gun a bit here.  

Mitts is on a good stretch that we all hope can continue, but he promotion to 1C is driven by many factors, including his good play.   He is in the 1C role because Tage is hurt and DG jumbled things up in an effort to get 2 lines going.  The kids that played on the Cozens line are being sheltered and now on the 3rd line.    Good to see Mitts rise to the occasion.  

Krebs has not given up.  He is playing in his first full season, he is close to being a rookie without being one.   His offensive production is down from most expectations but his role and the play of his wingers have something to do with that.   His point total for a 4C is better than any totals put up by more experienced 4C's such as Larsson and Lazar.      

I never saw Krebs as a better raw talent than Mitts btw.  Krebs has work to do to get stronger and to improve his shot.  

Edited April 10, 2023 by Pimlach

[GASabresIUFAN]

On 4/8/2023 at 7:40 PM, JohnC said:

A related question about Casey is what line will he be on and the composition of it. Another related question is Tage going to stay on the top line with Tuch and Skinner or will he be moved to another line to balance out the lines? I don't know. 

I’ve been stewing on this question for a few days and I’m honestly not sure how this will play out.

We know Casey has developed to the point where he is productive on any of the top 3 lines playing either center or wing.  His forechecking and physical play along the boards has been the fuel of this development, but as we have seen lately, he is also now comfortable creating as a top line center.  

We also have seen TNT work well lately as a winger again.  It seems both guys have matured into flexible and affective team players.  This is something Donnie wants really of all his forwards. Donnie said the other night moving TNT to the wing has given him more opportunity away from opponents top D pairs. 

Still, if healthy, TNT is back to the top line center.  What Donnie really needs is 2nd and 3rd lines that will punish opponents if they focus too heavily on Tage’s line. That where Cozens, Quinn, Mitts and soon Savoie come in.  It’s also why we need Krebs/Jost/Someone else to step up as the 3rd line center so that we have 3 effective scoring lines.  

The simplistic view of next season is

Skinner TNT Tuch, JJP Cozens Quinn, Mitts Krebs Savoie/Greenway, and then some 4th line possibly even Z Jost and Greenway/Rousek

That said, I’m not sure that’s how this will play out.  I think DG likes Mitts back at center and Greenway in the top 9

Skinner TNT Tuch, JJP Cozens Quinn, Greenway Mitts Savoie with a 4th line of Z Krebs Rousek and Jost as the 13th D.  This alignment seems to make the pieces fit together better if the goal is to get Savoie and Greenway into the top 9.

Edited April 10, 2023 by GASabresIUFAN

[...]

The ability to move around players across lines and in different positions is a major asset. It allows Meatballs to match or neutralize opponent line strengths and exploit the individual strengths of our players. I guess that makes Mitts' progress even more important.

[JohnC]

1 hour ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

I’ve been stewing on this question for a few days and I’m honestly not sure how this will play out.

We know Casey has developed to the point where he is productive on any of the top 3 lines playing either center or wing.  His forechecking and physical play along the boards has been the fuel of this development, but as we have seen lately, he is also now comfortable creating as a top line center.  

We also have seen TNT work well lately as a winger again.  It seems both guys have matured into flexible and affective team players.  This is something Donnie wants really of all his forwards. Donnie said the other night moving TNT to the wing has given him more opportunity away from opponents top D pairs. 

Still, if healthy, TNT is back to the top line center.  What Donnie really needs is 2nd and 3rd lines that will punish opponents if they focus too heavily on Tage’s line. That where Cozens, Quinn, Mitts and soon Savoie come in.  It’s also why we need Krebs/Jost/Someone else to step up as the 3rd line center so that we have 3 effective scoring lines.  

The simplistic view of next season is

Skinner TNT Tuch, JJP Cozens Quinn, Mitts Krebs Savoie/Greenway, and then some 4th line possibly even Z Jost and Greenway/Rousek

That said, I’m not sure that’s how this will play out.  I think DG likes Mitts back at center and Greenway in the top 9

Skinner TNT Tuch, JJP Cozens Quinn, Greenway Mitts Savoie with a 4th line of Z Krebs Rousek and Jost as the 13th D.  This alignment seems to make the pieces fit together better if the goal is to get Savoie and Greenway into the top 9.

Terrific and thoughtful response. 

What's become evident that as the talent base increases the more options there are to mix and match. And as the talent base grows this team will be able to adjust their lines to absorb injuries and not regress when a replacement moves up. There are now enough first and second-line caliber of players who can be called on to move up or even down the lines and still maintain a credible quality of play.

As far as where to play Tage, his best position is center. I think his injury may be a factor to moving him to the wing. But I also think that the coach is experimenting jumbling the lines just for the sake of different lines to consider in the future. As you well know it was DG who strongly advocated for the acquisition of Greenway. It's going to be interesting to see how he is handled next year. And it shouldn't be forgotten that the coach was astute in moving Krebs to the Okposo/Grirgs line, so I'm confident that he will slot Greenway somewhere to maximize his talents. 

With respect to Mitts, there is no doubt in my mind that the coach has a high regard for him. He's said on more than a few occasions that he thought Mitts was our best or second best player in last year's camp. Then he got hurt and his play unsurprisingly declined. The coach has demonstrated an ability to put together lines and combos that best suit the individual talents of his players. 

I look at the players that you listed. The roster is definitely filling out. As it has been repeatedly stated, additions to the blueline need to be made. If Levi becomes the player that many people believe that he will, then this roster will be solidified more than it has been in a long time. How can one not be excited!

[HumanSlinky39]

Came up big again tonight.

Casey has been one of our 2 or 3 best players over the season's final month. Fight me.

[Mango]

The first line needs to be more physical. Mittlestadt brings a bit more tenacity and physicality to a line that was all skill all the time. 

Call me crazy, but I don’t see a need to make any change unless it’s situational. I like both lines the way they are. The kids are being protected. Which is maybe a good thing right now. The last 9 games we have a roster playing like a real life NHL team. They’re right where a couple of 21 year olds belong.

[Cascade Youth]

Yes.

He went from trying to get by on natural talent (to the point where he maybe almost fell out of the league) to loving the grind.  

You see it in other aspects of life - maturity, a lightbulb turns on and someone realizes the amount of hard work it will take to achieve sustained success, and becomes willing to put in that work.  You’ve got to love the grind to be great in most professions.  Casey does and it shows, now.

[French Collection]

If Mitts keeps this up he may get a letter next year.

I don’t think he gets one but he seems well liked and it sounds like his work ethic is great so you never know.

[North Buffalo]

2 minutes ago, French Collection said:

If Mitts keeps this up he may get a letter next year.

I don’t think he gets one but he seems well liked and it sounds like his work ethic is great so you never know.

Night and day from his obsession with fortnite