The Problem with NOT Trading for Defense

[GASabresIUFAN]

5 hours ago, dudacek said:

Using percentages instead of raw numbers again, I see.

Why don't you just say Adams has drafted 1 defenceman in the 1st 2 rounds over the past three drafts? It's the real numbers that matter.

(And ignore that Bos, Sea, Phi, Win, Van, Nas, Pit, Stl, SJ, TB, Edm, Tor, VGK, Cal, Ott, NYR, NYI — literally half the league — have also drafted 1 or less over that span

And then you can argue he should have picked a Dman over Kisakov or Leinonen

(And ignore the merits of passing on Dmen to pick Savoie, Östlund, Kulich, Quinn and Peterka)

Yes, the NHL blueline has depth problems. Yes, the pipeline could use more bodies.

No, Adams has not been unforgivably negligent: we have 5 defencemen 24-and-under in the system who have been picked in the top 32.

I doubt you'll find five teams in the league with that kind of young capital on their blueline.

If you want to define him by Clague and Bryson, I'm obviously not going to stop you.

So you want to talk numbers. (Seattle only has 2 years of draft history.)

12 teams, besides the Sabres, drafted more than their allotment of 21 picks (aka 22 or more picks) over the last 3 years.  Those 12 teams averaged 8 D drafted during that period.  We drafted 5 on 27 picks.  Only the NYR drafted less with 3 D selected on 23 picks.

18 teams drafted 20 or less players during that period.  Even these teams averaged 6+ D selected during that period.  In fact, only 2 teams in this category drafted less D than the Sabres and they were Edm who took 3 D on 16 picks and Colorado who also took 3 D on 11 picks.  

Furthermore, there were 13 teams with an above allotment in 1 and 2 round picks (7 or more), besides the Sabres (The Sabres had 10 such picks).  Of this group, all but one took more D in the first 2 rounds than the Sabres (Wpg also drafted just 1, but on 7 picks and they still managed to tie our 5 overall on their 15 picks overall). The average number of D taken by these 13 teams was 3.  Ana took 5, NJ 4 and Ott 4. 

@dudacek There are no % or numbers that support the idea that KA has drafted enough D overall or in the 1st two rounds of the draft.  He has simply not done enough to stock the pipeline with D.  Had he signed a few college UFAs to supplement the pipeline, I wouldn't be belabouring the point, but he hasn't done that either.

You also asked about the opportunity to draft D when we drafted (and I'll add Goalies as well since that is another area of weakness).   The facts are that he has excellent opportunities.  D like Seamus Casey and Mattias Havelid, who had 1st rd grades by most analysts were still available when he reached for the goalie in the 2nd.  

When he reached for Rosen in 2021, 2 top-flight goalies were still available. Wallstadt had a top 10 grade.  Savoie's teammate Lambos was also available.  On the 2 2nd rd picks, why did both have to be forwards?  There were 5 D taken in the next 7 picks after Poltapov and another 5 in the next 8 picks after Kisakov.  2 of the players drafted after Kisakov are in the NHL including JJ Moser who already has 107 games under his belt.

I give him a pass for 2020 because of the lack of picks, but there is no excuse for taking only 4 D in 22 picks in 2021 and 2022. 

 

Edited March 9, 2023 by GASabresIUFAN

[TRIP65]

11 hours ago, LGR4GM said:

Sure, you're 1 draft away, but even if we draft all defense this year 2023, those players are making an impact until 2026-2028. 

Not necessarily, they don't have to be stars, don't have to have offense. Defense is defense if you stay back. Have to have Athleticism, have to be strong, fearless.

[TRIP65]

9 hours ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

Why do other team’s inadequate pipeline’s even matter?  

The fact is we don’t have enough to fill our needs over the next several years.  Other than Johnson, Komarov is the closest and he is a 5th rd pick, who may not be ready for another 3 year if at all.  

Depth on D has been a major weakness of rebuild 3.0 and won’t be fixed until the very stubborn GM chooses to fix it. Band-aids like Lyubushkin and Stillman won’t cut it any longer. His attempt to get Chychrun is a hopeful sign that he realizes that this is an urgent problem and can only be repaired by a trade such as Chychrun or committing to a FA. 

KA also needs to fix the pipeline. Drafting some in the first 2 rounds would help.  Possibly trading a F prospect for a D prospect would also be nice. The LA Kings have some to spare. Signing a college UFA should also be considered. 

I’d like to wake up in the Fall and see the Amerks with 3 legit prospects playing for them.  

KA has 8 current NHL players under contract or control. A minimum of two need to be upgraded starting with Power’s partner.

Sabres have Centers and Wingers to trade for D. Always 1 Dimensional D available. We have 3 Offensive/Defensivemen for a three lines and backup. We need 1 more strong stay at home blocking D man

[LGR4GM]

5 minutes ago, TRIP65 said:

Not necessarily, they don't have to be stars, don't have to have offense. Defense is defense if you stay back. Have to have Athleticism, have to be strong, fearless.

This has nothing to do with a timeline a mid 1st round pick or even 2nd round pick needs to make the NHL.

[TRIP65]

7 hours ago, LGR4GM said:

He's already being counted. He's counted in the 3 good nhl defenders part, now who's coming to fill out the other 3 spots?

Pick 2 at most, the rest won't matter

That goes for any drafting. Sabres got two 1st overall in draft that will help them for 10 years. Goaltender is where we can get better QUICKLY

7 hours ago, triumph_communes said:

Having rookies in the line up helps when injuries hit. It’s going to need to be addressed over the next few years. 
 

The criticism is just whining though. We had a better deal in place for Chychrun and didn’t get it because the player decided elsewhere. He’s obviously trying. If nothing is done this off-season then it’s merited again. 

Stillman a good pickup for now with Greenway. We have gotten stronger.

Edited March 10, 2023 by TRIP65

[LGR4GM]

4 minutes ago, TRIP65 said:

That goes for any drafting. Sabres got to 1st overall in draft that will help them for 10 years. Goaltender is where we can get better QUICKLY

Huh? What does that have to do with drafting defense?

[TRIP65]

7 hours ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

Because he’s an NHL player and is only the 3rd of 6 we need to field a good D group.  The question remains how do will fill the other 3 slots longterm.  Anyone who brings up Lindgren and the other late rounds picks is asking to hit the lottery.  Players like those have a 15% chance of playing 100 games in the NHL and you mostly get guys like Bryson for your trouble. 

KA has used only 18% of his draft capital on D.  The league average is 33% during KA’s tenure.  Only perennial playoff teams (read teams with limited No of picks) have spent less than KA’s 18%.  For teams with a similar number of picks that last three years all have drafted more D in numbers and/or more during the first 2 rounds. If my memory serves most of the teams with 25 plus picks have drafted at least 3 D in the first 2 rounds over that period.  KA drafted one.

If this team misses the playoffs, every post mortem for the season will focus on the inadequate D and goaltending and wonder what will be done to fix them because there is no immediate help coming from the prospect pile line.

 

 

NONSENSE, two 1st overall players on defense were drafted. One by Adams. Our weakness has been scoring, Wingers and Center since we traded O'Reilly. Goaltending is our biggest problem overall now and injuries. Stillman has added D depth. We need someone permanently to be with Power and stay at home. Jok can be the Offensive D for third pair. We have depth for D now but it can get better with Goaltending getting above .9 save percentage

[TRIP65]

6 hours ago, tom webster said:

This is it. They obviously have acknowledged the need to better the defense and the goaltending. I also think as good as Jost has done, they feel the need for an upgrade there as well. This is the NHL, however, trying is only good for a very short time. He needs to finish the deal, even if it results in a slight, and I mean slight, overpay.

Who else has two of the best offensive-defensiveman that are this YOUNG. No one. Fixing a stay at home physical guy is the EASIEST part to do. NOT the Sabres Problem right now. Scoring consistently on 2nd and 3rd lines is. Sabres win scoring 4. Lose if 5 or more go in goal. Consistent Goaltending fixes this. Sabres just need some toughness and to get older so they have experience. We are close, I like Stillman and Greenway added. Just sit back and watch this TEAM grow. We can add depth in Offseason.

6 hours ago, LGR4GM said:

I think Jost is looked at as the 4th center so they need a 3c still.

Going to be Krebs or Kulich

[TRIP65]

5 hours ago, LGR4GM said:

I think Kulich is going to be a wing. 

Unless Krebs doesn't mature like Middlestat didn't for 5 years

[TRIP65]

5 hours ago, French Collection said:

Bryson not taking the shot late last game and giving the puck away has not left my mind. He has become my and others whipping boy this season, which I think is deserved.

Bryson is small for an NHL Dman, I think we can all agree on that. Many Dmen that size need to be highly skilled to make it to the NHL.
Bryson has never been an offensive dynamo, in junior A, NCAA, AHL or NHL. He has produced some points at the lower levels but not like a Torrey Krug or Sam Girard.

I find he doesn’t have enough offensive skill to compensate for his defensive weaknesses.

He needs to be 8 Dman or AHL all star next year for this team to be improved.

KA needs to add via trade, UFA or college FA. I will lose it if this guy is 6-7 next year, never mind be out at crucial points of a must win game.

 

 

Bryson is a offensive-defensiveman, DEPTH. He can't be paired with Dahlin or Power. Joks will be 3rd O-defensiveman but we need a good pairing for Power.

[TRIP65]

3 hours ago, Pimlach said:

Good comments, but is our lack of defensive prospects really all on Adams?   Should Boterill's role be discussed?  

Lets remember that Adams has had three drafts.  His first draft he was thrust into the job during Covid and he inherited only 5 picks - 1, 2, 5, 7 and 7.   He drafted Quinn and Peterka in the first 2 rounds and that is looking pretty good right now.   He picked one defenseman, in the 7th round, that is gone. 

His second draft he stockpiled 11 picks and took defenseman Owen Power #1 overall and then Kovikov at #6.  Could have picked more but none of them would be ready now either.  

His third draft he stockpiled another 11 picks.  We had a very bare cupboard at Center so he added 3 in the first round - maybe you can complain he should have added a D but if he took his BPA and stuck to his board then I cannot argue with it.  On defense he added Lindgren (4) and Komarov (5). 

We can call Kovikov, Lindgren, and Komarov longshots but lets understand that our best D prospects should already be in Rochester and should be people drafted by Boterill and instead there is nothing there.  We do have unsigned Ryan Johnson from the Boterill era, and that is it.  

Adams opportunity is right there in front of him.  He can move some of his forwards and forward prospects in an effort to shore up his defense by trading for proven NHL defensemen.  

More experience and one really good NHL vet will help this group immensely. And yes, I think he should draft a few more defenseman earlier in the draft (he has one first and 2 seconds).

1. Dahlin - 2. Samuelsson

3. Power - 4. TBD proven NHL Vet

6/7 Lybushkin/Stillman  5. Joker

------------------------

8/9 - Ryan Johnson and Clague  can play in Rochester

Boterill got Dahlin and Samuelsonn so the problem is where are our VETERAN D from Murray?

3 hours ago, Thorny said:

Well I know dude, that’s why the substance of my post was about how when it comes to the D, since what we are actually looking for more so is complimentary pieces to the 2 maybe even 3 studs we already have, those would best be found externally ala Chychrun 

We definitely need to add from the outside, wanted it to be the deadline, but the summer makes sense too. The key is those pieces should be reasonably attainable 

Stillman is 24, it is a start

[Thorner]

4 minutes ago, TRIP65 said:

Boterill got Dahlin and Samuelsonn so the problem is where are our VETERAN D from Murray?

Stillman is 24, it is a start

Have no reason to doubt KA currently. I expect he targets some added d depth in the summer and yes, jury is out on Stillman

[TRIP65]

2 hours ago, Pimlach said:

Come on man, we are talking about the pipeline, not the roster.   In three drafts Adams added one starter in Power but with all his other picks - whether he picked 3 defenseman or 30, would not be ready yet.  I am talking about the timing.   The fact that Rochester has no NHL caliber defensive prospect is not all on Adams.  Some of it is, but not all of it.   

Dahlin and Power where consensus (sort of) FOA's.  Neither GM gets a lot of credit for those picks.  

Samuelson - great pick for JBot. 

Bryson stinks and cannot play on any other teams in this league.  

Miller- bum

Montour - he was a soft and terrible Sabre that did not want to be here, he had a good year on a Presidents trophy team, otherwise he is average (and soft)

Joker - solid, JBot salvaged that terrible Nylander pick for sure

 

 

 

How many Pipelines get RAIDED as quickly as Rochester past two years?  The Problem started with Murray, he got Veterans for his picks and didn't build Rochester. Add many HC who didn't like certain players and we were DEFICIENT in Goal, Wingers, Center and from Murray. J-Bot got us better on Winger/Center and a couple trades. Adams has done the rest. We are NOT deficient anymore. No real step up to Sabres without getting rid of a player with Trade. Gonna cut Middlestat, Olofsson, Peterka, Bryson? You may WANT to but that is NOT happening. Sabres are NOT far off. Top 5 Goaltender gets them there immediately (LEVI?). RW Vet D for Power helps immediately. Vet winger for Cozen or Krebs helps immediately. Quinn rizing up helps, Getting Greenway helps, getting Stillman helps. Stop acting like the Youngest Team in Hockey isn't getting closer!!!

[TRIP65]

2 hours ago, Pimlach said:

This is pretty much true.  

Adding Comrie, Lubyshkin, Clague, and 3 rookies was not enough.  I don't think they expected the team to be this good, which is something I am leery about regarding Adams.  He needs to turn up the pace next off-season and help this core to take a big step.  

Added Stillman and Greenway too.

Brought up Quinn, Krebs and Peterka

Got Granto who found his top two Centers in Tage and Cozen's

Got Power

Got Jost

Say that was pretty GOOD

[TRIP65]

1 hour ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

So you want to talk numbers. (Seattle only has 2 years of draft history.)

12 teams, besides the Sabres, drafted more than their allotment of 21 picks (aka 22 or more picks) over the last 3 years.  Those 12 teams averaged 8 D drafted during that period.  We drafted 5 on 27 picks.  Only the NYR drafted less with 3 D selected on 23 picks.

18 teams drafted 20 or less players during that period.  Even these teams averaged 6+ D selected during that period.  In fact, only 2 teams in this category drafted less D than the Sabres and they were Edm who took 3 D on 16 picks and Colorado who also took 3 D on 11 picks.  

Furthermore, there were 13 teams with an above allotment in 1 and 2 round picks (7 or more), besides the Sabres (The Sabres had 10 such picks).  Of this group, all but one took more D in the first 2 rounds than the Sabres (Wpg also drafted just 1, but on 7 picks and they still managed to tie our 5 overall on their 15 picks overall). The average number of D taken by these 13 teams was 3.  Ana took 5, NJ 4 and Ott 4. 

@dudacek There are no % or numbers that support the idea that KA has drafted enough D overall or in the 1st two rounds of the draft.  He has simply not done enough to stock the pipeline with D.  Had he signed a few college UFAs to supplement the pipeline, I wouldn't be belabouring the point, but he hasn't done that either.

You also asked about the opportunity to draft D when we drafted (and I'll add Goalies as well since that is another area of weakness).   The facts are that he has excellent opportunities.  D like Seamus Casey and Mattias Havelid, who had 1st rd grades by most analysts were still available when he reached for the goalie in the 2nd.  

When he reached for Rosen in 2021, 2 top-flight goalies were still available. Wallstadt had a top 10 grade.  Savoie's teammate Lambos was also available.  On the 2 2nd rd picks, why did both have to be forwards?  There were 5 D taken in the next 7 picks after Poltapov and another 5 in the next 8 picks after Kisakov.  2 of the players drafted after Kisakov are in the NHL including JJ Moser who already has 107 games under his belt.

I give him a pass for 2020 because of the lack of picks, but there is no excuse for taking only 4 D in 22 picks in 2021 and 2022. 

 

Adams has a full Roster of D that are 24 young

Brought in 28 year old Lyubushkin, 25 year old Stillman to toughen up. Really only one spot open next to Power, Jok goes down to third pair and you still have the other two men. That spot will be a VET, not a Rookie. Jok will get Stillman or Lyubushkin on any given night.

[LGR4GM]

13 minutes ago, TRIP65 said:

How many Pipelines get RAIDED as quickly as Rochester past two years?  The Problem started with Murray, he got Veterans for his picks and didn't build Rochester. Add many HC who didn't like certain players and we were DEFICIENT in Goal, Wingers, Center and from Murray. J-Bot got us better on Winger/Center and a couple trades. Adams has done the rest. We are NOT deficient anymore. No real step up to Sabres without getting rid of a player with Trade. Gonna cut Middlestat, Olofsson, Peterka, Bryson? You may WANT to but that is NOT happening. Sabres are NOT far off. Top 5 Goaltender gets them there immediately (LEVI?). RW Vet D for Power helps immediately. Vet winger for Cozen or Krebs helps immediately. Quinn rizing up helps, Getting Greenway helps, getting Stillman helps. Stop acting like the Youngest Team in Hockey isn't getting closer!!!

What are you going on about?

Just now, TRIP65 said:

Adams has a full Roster of D that are 24 young

Brought in 28 year old Lyubushkin, 25 year old Stillman to toughen up. Really only one spot open next to Power, Jok goes down to third pair and you still have the other two men. That spot will be a VET, not a Rookie. Jok will get Stillman or Lyubushkin on any given night.

Adams has 3 useful D under 23

[TRIP65]

55 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

This has nothing to do with a timeline a mid 1st round pick or even 2nd round pick needs to make the NHL.

Yes it does, Traits drafted for Sabres will mean more than Development where they are in the draft. They don't have to play right away, just have to have Skill set. Have to MATURE that is all, get stronger. Don't have to develop to score, that is fixed!!!!

49 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

Huh? What does that have to do with drafting defense?

Why would you invest in Defense when you are pretty much filled above right now. They have drafted D, Our D is mostly 24 and younger!!!!!!!!!

[TRIP65]

29 minutes ago, Thorny said:

Have no reason to doubt KA currently. I expect he targets some added d depth in the summer and yes, jury is out on Stillman

He can't take a punch 😂

[LGR4GM]

3 minutes ago, TRIP65 said:

Yes it does, Traits drafted for Sabres will mean more than Development where they are in the draft. They don't have to play right away, just have to have Skill set. Have to MATURE that is all, get stronger. Don't have to develop to score, that is fixed!!!!

Why would you invest in Defense when you are pretty much filled above right now. They have drafted D, Our D is mostly 24 and younger!!!!!!!!!

We have 4 D prospects. We have roughly idk 12 forward prospects. We have 3 d and we need 6 so we will have to trade for defense because drafting them doesn't help us until 2026 at best

[Pimlach]

18 minutes ago, TRIP65 said:

Added Stillman and Greenway too.

Brought up Quinn, Krebs and Peterka

Got Granto who found his top two Centers in Tage and Cozen's

Got Power

Got Jost

Say that was pretty GOOD

We were  talking about the past summer off season acquisitions, nothing else.  Follow the context of the conversation if you are going to jump in.   I am well aware of all his accomplishments.   A summary is not needed. 

[TRIP65]

10 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

What are you going on about?

Adams has 3 useful D under 23

So Jok is no good on 3rd pair or at all???? Nonsense!

[LGR4GM]

Just now, TRIP65 said:

So Jok is no good on 3rd pair or at all???? Nonsense!

You still need 3 D with him. 

Samuelsson, Dahlin, Power

Joker, and ???? 

 

[TRIP65]

2 minutes ago, Pimlach said:

We were  talking about the past summer off season acquisitions, nothing else.  Follow the context of the conversation if you are going to jump in.   I am well aware of all his accomplishments.   A summary is not needed. 

Yes and all the moves made matter, you can't singularly isolate moves based on your premise you put up. This isn't Fantasy GM

[LGR4GM]

Just now, TRIP65 said:

Yes and all the moves made matter, you can't singularly isolate moves based on your premise you put up. This isn't Fantasy GM

This thread is about the defense! Not every move Adams had made, so yes we literally can. 

[Pimlach]

10 minutes ago, TRIP65 said:

Yes and all the moves made matter, you can't singularly isolate moves based on your premise you put up. This isn't Fantasy GM

What is it, real GM?   What are you 8 years old?     We were talking about next summer needs versus last.  Stop interrupting the conversation with extraneous information.  

Edited March 10, 2023 by Pimlach