The Problem with NOT Trading for Defense

[LGR4GM]

It isn't specifically about Chychrun but he is a great example of the issue the Sabres not only have now, but will not be fixed by "draft and develop" which has been Adams mantra. It is a mantra that I don't usually have an issue with, however. 

The Buffalo Sabres do not have prospects internally that will be top 4 defenders anytime in the next 2-4 years (I lean closer to 4 years). Lindgren, Komarov are 4 years out from being impactful, 3 if you get lucky. Novikov is at least 2 years out and probably 3 if you get lucky. Then there is Ryan Johnson who hopefully signs but he's going to be Lyubushkin's replacement basically on the 3rd pairing after next year. 

That's it. There are no other defenders in the system that we should even think about IMPO. Which brings us back to Chychrun. The Sabres defense is bad and we saw what happens when 1 injury happens, it gets way worse. Power will get better and Samuelsson might get a little better but no one else in the top 6 is going to improve a bunch to make the defense better. Adding a guy like Chychrun allows you to bridge some of the time from now until maybe a prospect is ready to fill in. It upgrades what you have currently and it does signal that we are starting to move away from development seasons to serious attempts at winning. 

It doesn't have to be Chychrun, but giving up a 1st in 2023, 2nd in 2024, and a 2nd in 2026 should not have been a deal breaker. The 2023 first is probably around 17-19th depending on points and that is a player who is 2 years away once you draft him. The 2026 2nd is a player who won't make the NHL until what? 2029 or 2030. Now we could argue that Buffalo's 2023 1st is viewed as slightly less valuable than Ottawa's but we also could have coughed up an earlier 2nd rounder, hell we could have given them one this year. 

My point in all this is that we have to trade or sign not 1 but 2 defenders. Bryson, Clague, whatever is not good enough. Jokiharju is hit or miss and really struggles when you bump up his minutes and responsibility. Boosh has one more year. There is no help in the pipeline that we can point to like Savoie or Kulich and say "yea reinforcements are coming". That means as soon as next year's deadline we will only have 3 useful defenders on this team, Dahlin, Power, Muel. It isn't about Chychrun specifically but if we want to make the playoffs ever, we can't just "draft and develop" because at that rate the defender we draft in 2023 will be impactful in 2027.

Outside help has to come to the defense or this will be another failed rebuild. One of the best times to add is the trade deadline, if not now then when? Before the draft? UFA? They need help and it might cost a precious pick to acquire it, I just hope they aren't afraid to pull the trigger when the option come along. We have seen cheaper deals for helpful defenders, do we really need 3 second round picks this year? 

Edited March 2, 2023 by LGR4GM
edit to include the extra 2nd in the Chychrun deal

[Eleven]

Adams does not properly evaluate the team's needs.  He just doesn't.  He hasn't fixed the mess in goal and now he's got a bare cupboard for a blue line.

Draft picks outside the top five are lottery tickets.  We all know that.  A first round pick in 2023 (even in a deep draft) and a second round pick a year or two from now are not sure things.  But certain defensemen are.  He needed to pull the trigger and didn't.

Edited March 2, 2023 by Eleven

[Pimlach]

Good post. 
 

It’s a new day.  I am more disappointed than angry right now.  The mantra of build from within seems to be taken to extremes by the Sabres.    

Chyckrun would not be a guy I target to help the team, but considering he was available, and has 2 years remaining at a cap friendly contract, I was on board to get him.  

There is time to find a veteran defender but I think Adams is done and Stillman is our new 6 once Dahlin is back. 

[Quint]

I'd like to see Colton Parayko (6'6 RHD) and Ivan Provorov (6'1 LHD) added to the Sabres lineup, plus goalie Vejmelka. I think that would make Buffalo instantly tougher to play against.

[WhenWillItEnd66]

Totally agree.... this perpetual build is getting fan weary. Not chasing our need now when we are this close is a huge disappointment

[thewookie1]

To be honest I think he’s merely following the script he planned and is unwilling to deviate barring obvious help.

He wants to win but sees little value in making moves that may negatively affect the vibes. 
 

I want moves but I’m also on the conservative side. I’m disinterested in giant risk-laden trades. So I don’t want Parynko or Provorov or to trade Savoie/Kulich 

 

All in all I’m disappointed in the lack of help but not pulling out my hair over it

[LGR4GM]

13 minutes ago, Quint said:

I'd like to see Colton Parayko (6'6 RHD) and Ivan Provorov (6'1 LHD) added to the Sabres lineup, plus goalie Vejmelka. I think that would make Buffalo instantly tougher to play against.

No ***** way. 

[Eleven]

16 minutes ago, Stormcloudmember66 said:

Totally agree.... this perpetual build is getting fan weary. Not chasing our need now when we are this close is a huge disappointment

And it's not a short term need, either.  Getting a defenseman through 2025 at a reasonable price would have been great.

[Cityo'Rasmii]

Great thread and comments!

[Believer]

11 minutes ago, thewookie1 said:

He wants to win but sees little value in making moves that may negatively affect the vibes. 

Seems just as likely to upset the vibes when he trades away a well-liked teammate like Fitzgerald to Boston… as it might be bringing in a veteran D with grit now… KA still has a couple days… Still hopeful…

[mjd1001]

I agree they need D-men.  I agree there is virtually no upcoming quality depth in the system.  I agree this team would be better now if they trade for a good D-man. However, I'm still not all that upset if nothing gets done. Why?  We can look at free agents lists, cap numbers...all that stuff.....but no matter what that says, I tend to think there are usually MORE quality players available from the Draft until the start of the season (offseason) than there are at the trade deadline when the contenders are bidding things up.

Even this past offseason I wasn't upset at the lack of moves. I'm not uspset at the lack of moves now.  I WILL be upset if there isn't more quality depth and quality roster players on the back end come the start of next season.

[French Collection]

One guy that moved but did not seem on the block was Hronek.

He could have helped as well.

[GASabresIUFAN]

I feel I’ve said all I need to say about our lack of defense and goaltending. 

I do appreciate @LGR4GM for pointing out the same issues I’ve been posting about for months from KA’s failure to draft D causing the lack of a D pipeline, to the terrible play of our defense outside the top 3, to KA’s mind boggling refusal to actually fix the darn problems.

Maybe he has a secret move up his sleeve over the next two days to prove us all wrong. However when it doesn’t materialize, maybe y’all will be as annoyed as I was at the stupid Stillman trade.  

If (when?) this team doesn’t make the playoffs there will be only one person to blame. 
 

 

 

Edited March 2, 2023 by GASabresIUFAN

[K-9]

6 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

I feel I’ve said all I need to say about our lack of defense and goaltending. 

 

Give it a minute. 

[SabresBillsFan]

1 hour ago, Eleven said:

Adams does not properly evaluate the team's needs.  He just doesn't.  He hasn't fixed the mess in goal and now he's got a bare cupboard for a blue line.

Draft picks outside the top five are lottery tickets.  We all know that.  A first round pick in 2023 (even in a deep draft) and a second round pick a year or two from now are not sure things.  But certain defensemen are.  He needed to pull the trigger and didn't.

^ This

[Taro T]

1 hour ago, LGR4GM said:

It isn't specifically about Chychrun but he is a great example of the issue the Sabres not only have now, but will not be fixed by "draft and develop" which has been Adams mantra. It is a mantra that I don't usually have an issue with, however. 

The Buffalo Sabres do not have prospects internally that will be top 4 defenders anytime in the next 2-4 years (I lean closer to 4 years). Lindgren, Komarov are 4 years out from being impactful, 3 if you get lucky. Novikov is at least 2 years out and probably 3 if you get lucky. Then there is Ryan Johnson who hopefully signs but he's going to be Lyubushkin's replacement basically on the 3rd pairing after next year. 

That's it. There are no other defenders in the system that we should even think about IMPO. Which brings us back to Chychrun. The Sabres defense is bad and we saw what happens when 1 injury happens, it gets way worse. Power will get better and Samuelsson might get a little better but no one else in the top 6 is going to improve a bunch to make the defense better. Adding a guy like Chychrun allows you to bridge some of the time from now until maybe a prospect is ready to fill in. It upgrades what you have currently and it does signal that we are starting to move away from development seasons to serious attempts at winning. 

It doesn't have to be Chychrun, but giving up a 1st in 2023 and a 2nd in 2026 should not have been a deal breaker. The 2023 first is probably around 17-19th depending on points and that is a player who is 2 years away once you draft him. The 2026 2nd is a player who won't make the NHL until what? 2029 or 2030. Now we could argue that Buffalo's 2023 1st is viewed as slightly less valuable than Ottawa's but we also could have coughed up an earlier 2nd rounder, hell we could have given them one this year. 

My point in all this is that we have to trade or sign not 1 but 2 defenders. Bryson, Clague, whatever is not good enough. Jokiharju is hit or miss and really struggles when you bump up his minutes and responsibility. Boosh has one more year. There is no help in the pipeline that we can point to like Savoie or Kulich and say "yea reinforcements are coming". That means as soon as next year's deadline we will only have 3 useful defenders on this team, Dahlin, Power, Muel. It isn't about Chychrun specifically but if we want to make the playoffs ever, we can't just "draft and develop" because at that rate the defender we draft in 2023 will be impactful in 2027.

Outside help has to come to the defense or this will be another failed rebuild. One of the best times to add is the trade deadline, if not now then when? Before the draft? UFA? They need help and it might cost a precious pick to acquire it, I just hope they aren't afraid to pull the trigger when the option come along. We have seen cheaper deals for helpful defenders, do we really need 3 second round picks this year? 

@lgr4gm, good post overall.  But why are you discounting the price of Chychrun to a 1st this year and the 2nd in '26?  There's also a '24 2nd that could become another 1st.  Not saying that should be a dealbreaker but it does alter the price paid for Chychrun and the deal as presented in your post makes it pretty much a no brainer to get Chychrun but that's not the deal that was made.  (Still would like to have seen the Sabres beat the Otters offer.)

[WhenWillItEnd66]

Not just defense..... most of the teams added sandpaper to their rosters. This is not good for the Sabres as they seriously lack there. You really do not want your top players in the scrums. Losing Dahlin, Cozens etc to a stupid fight or hit. I get this is not the 70's but teams a re still looking for that grit we really do not have. Ok, Stillman supposedly has, but how much ice time is he really going to get?

[GASabresIUFAN]

1 hour ago, thewookie1 said:

To be honest I think he’s merely following the script he planned and is unwilling to deviate barring obvious help.

He wants to win but sees little value in making moves that may negatively affect the vibes. 
 

I want moves but I’m also on the conservative side. I’m disinterested in giant risk-laden trades. So I don’t want Parynko or Provorov or to trade Savoie/Kulich 

 

All in all I’m disappointed in the lack of help but not pulling out my hair over it

This problem on defense can no longer be solved with a strictly conservative approach.  He has no pipeline to draw from to fix the problems and the cheap acquisitions (Clague, Lyubushkin and now Stillman) haven’t and won’t solve the problems.  

He is going to have to bring in better players and that will cost in both $ and assets.  He is going to have to take a risk.

[JustOneParade]

Totally agree with @LGR4GM. Was thinking the same last evening. Simply, if the Sabres traded for a defenseman, what prospect would be 'blocked'? There are none. Get Johnson signed and add a legitimate top-6 D-man to pair with Power (Joki to third pair with Johnson).

As others have mentioned, I believe the bigger issue is more systemic. The Sabres are atrocious at defending in their own end and its not only the D. Tired of seeing opponents wide open in the slot or standing alone on the back post for easy tap-ins - with nary a Sabre nearby. If its a coaching issue, find someone who can teach these guys how to properly play in their own end. I have admitted that I'm not well versed in what is supposed to be happening. Who is responsible for what. But I do watch enough hockey to recognize on a macro level that how other teams play defense bears little resemblance to the cluster fudge the Sabres are doing.

Fix that and the goaltending may actually look .... competent?   

[SwampD]

Aren’t you arguing for a solution without a problem, though? Don’t we actually have our top four defensemen for the next 4-6 years?

[Carmel Corn]

1 hour ago, Quint said:

I'd like to see Colton Parayko (6'6 RHD) and Ivan Provorov (6'1 LHD) added to the Sabres lineup, plus goalie Vejmelka. I think that would make Buffalo instantly tougher to play against.

Horrible contract to inherit for Parayko.....pass!

[LGR4GM]

8 minutes ago, Taro T said:

@lgr4gm, good post overall.  But why are you discounting the price of Chychrun to a 1st this year and the 2nd in '26?  There's also a '24 2nd that could become another 1st.  Not saying that should be a dealbreaker but it does alter the price paid for Chychrun and the deal as presented in your post makes it pretty much a no brainer to get Chychrun but that's not the deal that was made.  (Still would like to have seen the Sabres beat the Otters offer.)

only becomes a 1st if the 1st in 2023 slides. Wasn't meant as a discount, was looking at it from could we beat the Ottawa offer. We could have offered a 2023 2nd. 

[thewookie1]

Just now, GASabresIUFAN said:

This problem on defense can no longer be solved with a strictly conservative approach.  He has no pipeline to draw from to fix the problems and the cheap acquisitions (Clague, Lyubushkin and now Stillman) haven’t and won’t solve the problems.  

He is going to have to bring in better players and that will cost in both $ and assets.  He is going to have to take a risk.

There aren't exactly a ton of great options that won't cost us absurd assets for questionable results.

I'd of gone after Chychrun more; however we have no idea how Adams did in that regard. He could of ignored them or pushed to the end only to come up short. Its only speculation

[sabrefanday1]

Great post and I too find this kind of double-sided...one way I do wish we'd add a good d-man and a tough forward, but then again I find it absurd what teams are giving away. These teams are playing for today while I do think KA is looking towards the future, and trying to ensure that that future includes enough young talent to ensure we are good for many years to come. Giving up 1st round picks year after year as many teams are doing is dangerous for any long-term success. Clearly these teams feel they have a chance to win NOW while realistically we would be lucky to win a game in a playoff round versus Boston and until many bulk up they'd be pushed around by the Bruins (I also agree this is not the brawling 70's but in playoffs things get real physical in a hurry)

   Guess he feels better to stay the course and hopefully address needs this summer when all these guys are free agents (and very many of the players traded will be).  

[thewookie1]

Just now, LGR4GM said:

only becomes a 1st if the 1st in 2023 slides. Wasn't meant as a discount, was looking at it from could we beat the Ottawa offer. We could have offered a 2023 2nd. 

They also put a 2nd 1st in a condition if they made the ECF in the next two years.