Sabres Woes at KeyBank Center

[WhenWillItEnd66]

Home is becoming a black hole for lost points. Definitely not helping their cause.

[North Buffalo]

Not wearing blacks at home is the issue.

[Weave]

2 hours ago, OverPowerYou said:

In the early 2010s some people blamed the home ice and that it made the Sabres slower. I feel like even now the Sabres play faster speed on the road and seem to drift at home 

Hmmmm…. I remember this.  And the team reduced the temperature in the building to improve ice conditions.  I wonder if it could be the ive again?

2 hours ago, OverPowerYou said:

In the early 2010s some people blamed the home ice and that it made the Sabres slower. I feel like even now the Sabres play faster speed on the road and seem to drift at home 

Hmmmm…. I remember this.  And the team reduced the temperature in the building to improve ice conditions.  I wonder if it could be the ice again?

2 hours ago, OverPowerYou said:

In the early 2010s some people blamed the home ice and that it made the Sabres slower. I feel like even now the Sabres play faster speed on the road and seem to drift at home 

Hmmmm…. I remember this.  And the team reduced the temperature in the building to improve ice conditions.  I wonder if it could be the ice again?

[Buffalonill]

It's easy just wear the black jerseys

[GoPuckYourself]

How does a teams age have anything to do with victories at home? Enough with that excuse. The coach and captains have to better prepare, it's all about preperation. I thought we played a better game last night with alot of missed opportunities but again it's so easy for teams to just walk right into our own zone and basically have their way with us, be more aggressive and get after people, communicate to your fellow linemates who's got who.

[Night Train]

Utterly bizarre. I do not blame the coaches. It's in the players heads. 

Acquiring some more players with grit during the off-season can help. Too late this season. Teams still try to run them and it does affect their play. They also tend to pinch deep too much at home and get caught. That's a major issue when your goaltending is still a work and many forwards don't play a good D game. Still too much floating. 

[pi2000]

IMO they played good enough to win last night, puck just didn't bounce their way.

Goaltending has been a major issue on home ice, specifically UPL and Comrie...  both at the bottom of the league in sv% on home ice.

Giving up only 3 goals to EDM should've been good enough to win.   

[Pimlach]

If this team is to have a shot at keeping the playoff dream alive they have to start winning at home.  This will help the season finish way better if they can win at home and get some positive fan feedback.  

Loosen your grips, have fun, and let it rip Sabres.  

[Andrew Amerk]

Maybe they should wear the black jerseys for home games. 

[Malazan]

Why is there no option for the marriot hotel bar not showing the games on TV?

[elijah]

I forget who said it, but someone associated with the team essentially said being young they rely on crowd energy a lot to get their energy. 

On the road they like silencing the crowd in the spotlight, and at home they have no one to play for 

I’m sure there’s other factors involved, but I think this could definitely be part of the issue 

[pi2000]

TL;DR : Buffalo would currently have somewhere around 81-84 points with average goaltending on home ice.

Buffalo has the second worst home sv%  at .873 and has given up 28 goals more than expected on home ice (132 GA vs 104 xGA).  

I tried to figure out how many points they've squandered at home due to poor goaltending, so I went game-by-game and calculated the difference between goals allowed and expected goals allowed then subtracted that from the opponents goal total.

Their current home record is 13-18-2.

In 23 of those 33 games they've given up more goals than expected.

Their record in those 23 games is 6-15-2.

Now, hypothetically, in those 17 losses, if they only gave up the expected number of goals against....

• 5 games would flip from a loss to a regulation win = +8 points, as 2 of these games we're OTL's
• 5 additional games would've reached OT = +5 points, we'll conservatively assume they go 2W-3OTL giving them +7 points
• 7 games still would've resulted in a loss = 0 points

So, with average goaltending at home they're somewhere around 13-16 points better... with a home record somewhere around 20-10-3, which is very close to their away record of 19-10-2. 

This would put them at 81-85 points, in a wildcard spot.. on the heels of both TBL (82) and TOR (86) in the division... with the playoffs all but a certainty.  

And this is a conservative estimate.   8 teams have given up at least 10 fewer goals at home than expected, so with slightly above average goaltending they could currently be around 90 points or so.  

FOR THE LOVE OF GOD KEVYN GET THEM A GOALTENDER

 

Edited March 10, 2023 by pi2000