Will the Buffalo Sabres make the playoffs?

[MattPie]

59 minutes ago, BearWIthME said:

I signed up to say that I've become totally addicted to Sabres hockey. 

I don't know if they will make or miss the postseason tournament, but I've had a damn good time watching them. I've totally fallen in love with the sport, to the extent that I was watching the Penguins/Bruins game yesterday, rooting for the Bruins to win. I don't know much about the sport yet, so (username). 

Today: Go Flyers! Go Blue Jackets! Go Rangers!

Welcome!

Tip: you can only begrudgingly root for the Bruins and Flyers, and only in this situation. Those teams are hated rivals. 🙂

[French Collection]

1 hour ago, BearWIthME said:

I signed up to say that I've become totally addicted to Sabres hockey. 

I don't know if they will make or miss the postseason tournament, but I've had a damn good time watching them. I've totally fallen in love with the sport, to the extent that I was watching the Penguins/Bruins game yesterday, rooting for the Bruins to win. I don't know much about the sport yet, so (username). 

Today: Go Flyers! Go Blue Jackets! Go Rangers!

Welcome.

This is a good time to become a fan of the Sabres in my opinion, kind of like the early 70’s. Young stars with a lot of promise.

[Marvin]

3 hours ago, BearWIthME said:

I signed up to say that I've become totally addicted to Sabres hockey. 

I don't know if they will make or miss the postseason tournament, but I've had a damn good time watching them. I've totally fallen in love with the sport, to the extent that I was watching the Penguins/Bruins game yesterday, rooting for the Bruins to win. I don't know much about the sport yet, so (username). 

Today: Go Flyers! Go Blue Jackets! Go Rangers!

Welcome to the board!

[Stads]

According to 538, we currently have a 9% chance to make the playoffs. The optimist in me says, "We're still playing meaningful hockey in April for the first time in forever...yay!" 

The pessimistic says, "Why did you have to lose to the Flyers twice and seemingly give up against the Stars and Bruins? Also, that 8 game losing streak, etc."

[nfreeman]

3 hours ago, BearWIthME said:

I signed up to say that I've become totally addicted to Sabres hockey. 

I don't know if they will make or miss the postseason tournament, but I've had a damn good time watching them. I've totally fallen in love with the sport, to the extent that I was watching the Penguins/Bruins game yesterday, rooting for the Bruins to win. I don't know much about the sport yet, so (username). 

Today: Go Flyers! Go Blue Jackets! Go Rangers!

Welcome and excellent first post!

[Wyldnwoody44]

I still think it's probably a no go, but stranger things have happened. Maybe the take away from missing narrowly for this current group will be that any of the games in the season can culminate into missing at the end, we may see more consistency out of them. 

Hard way to learn, but effective 

[Getpucksdeep]

21 hours ago, Stads said:

According to 538, we currently have a 9% chance to make the playoffs. The optimist in me says, "We're still playing meaningful hockey in April for the first time in forever...yay!" 

The pessimistic says, "Why did you have to lose to the Flyers twice and seemingly give up against the Stars and Bruins? Also, that 8 game losing streak, etc."

Yeah dousing optimism, Moneypuck is 3.3% today.  Seems like a pretty flawed algorithm, probably strongly weighted against the game tomorrow and FL being the favorite.

They have Isles, Pens, and FL at >60%.  

https://moneypuck.com/predictions.htm 

[Cheektorado]

16 minutes ago, Getpucksdeep said:

Yeah dousing optimism, Moneypuck is 3.3% today.  Seems like a pretty flawed algorithm, probably strongly weighted against the game tomorrow and FL being the favorite.

They have Isles, Pens, and FL at >60%.  

https://moneypuck.com/predictions.htm 

You don't need a lot of algorithmic math to see that the Sabres have to beat the Panthers Tuesday and Red Wings on Thursday.

If the Devils beat the Penguins on Tuesday, it tightens things up.

The algorithm is skewed due to the Sabres playing the Hurricanes, Rangers and Devils.  Those are tough games, but..................................

Edited April 3, 2023 by Cheektorado

[Doohicksie]

2 hours ago, Cheektorado said:

Those are tough games, but..................................

....maybe they'll be resting critical starters in anticipation of the playoffs?

 

 

 

I hope?

[MattPie]

The algorithm is probably fair, really. The Sabres need to pick up like 80%+ of the remaining points available, while the two of the three teams we're chasing have to play at or below their season % for the Sabres to get in. You don't bet on three unlikely things to all happen at once without a hefty dose of hopium.

[DarthEbriate]

[Mango]

On 4/2/2023 at 12:56 PM, Stads said:

According to 538, we currently have a 9% chance to make the playoffs. The optimist in me says, "We're still playing meaningful hockey in April for the first time in forever...yay!" 

The pessimistic says, "Why did you have to lose to the Flyers twice and seemingly give up against the Stars and Bruins? Also, that 8 game losing streak, etc."

The Buffalonian in me says "WTF have we basically sucked since the ASG". 

[Stads]

4 hours ago, Getpucksdeep said:

Yeah dousing optimism, Moneypuck is 3.3% today.  Seems like a pretty flawed algorithm, probably strongly weighted against the game tomorrow and FL being the favorite.

They have Isles, Pens, and FL at >60%.  

https://moneypuck.com/predictions.htm 

I don't understand how three teams could all be above 60% fighting for 2 positions. This looks like the work of a flawed algorithm as you stated

[WhenWillItEnd66]

The other shoe to drop Sabresfan says not a chance in hell, but after all that has happened they are still hanging in there and in a good place where they control their own destiny. They just have not had good results when the playoff door starts to open. 

[MattPie]

56 minutes ago, Stads said:

I don't understand how three teams could all be above 60% fighting for 2 positions. This looks like the work of a flawed algorithm as you stated

Stats aren't my strong point, but I think the % have to add up to 200% since there are two spots. Think of it this way: if you had three teams, equal odds, and two spots chosen randomly, each team would have a 66.7% chance of getting picked, since they'd each get picked in two of the three scenarios (AB, BC, and AC). In this case, those three teams are pretty much a toss-up, and the other 10% or so are the collective odds one of the teams further back makes a run.

Edited April 3, 2023 by MattPie

[Stads]

1 hour ago, MattPie said:

Stats aren't my strong point, but I think the % have to add up to 200% since there are two spots. Think of it this way: if you had three teams, equal odds, and two spots chosen randomly, each team would have a 66.7% chance of getting picked, since they'd each get picked in two of the three scenarios (AB, BC, and AC). In this case, those three teams are pretty much a toss-up, and the other 10% or so are the collective odds one of the teams further back makes a run.

That is strong logic and makes perfect sense

[OverPowerYou]

Didn’t the 2017 bills have a 15% chance of making the playoffs with 2 weeks left in the season before they broke the drought? 

[Huckleberry]

92 points will get you in I think.  Still a tall order to make that for us.

[Huckleberry]

Islanders play Tampa (L) Philly (L) washington (l)  Monteal (w)  -  I can see them loose 3/4 games.  Or at least 2/4   91 points

Penguins   Devils (L) Wild (L) Red wings (W) blackhawks (W) blue jackets (W)  92 points ( if we tie they jump us)

Panthers  Sabres (OTW) Sens (W) Caps (W) Leafs (L) Canes (L)  91 points

Sabres Panthers (OTL) Wings (W) canes (L) Rangers (W) Devils (L) Sens (W) Blue jackets (W) 90 points  <-- need a miracle and im being generous still 🙂

Edited April 4, 2023 by Huckleberry

[GASabresIUFAN]

18 minutes ago, Huckleberry said:

92 points will get you in I think.  Still a tall order to make that for us.

It's possible that all 4 teams could end up with 92 pts.  Of the 4 teams, only Buffalo and Florida play each other and that game is tomorrow.

To get to 92 points here's what must happen. (I'm going to assume all wins are in regulation)

1) NYI - They have 4 games remaining (TB, PHI, @ Wash and Mon) - They must go 2-1-1.  RW 35, ROW 40

2) FLA - They have 5 games remaining (BUF, OTT, @ Wash, TOR and CAR) - They must go 3-1-1.  RW 36, ROW 40

3) PIT - They have 5 games remaining (@ NJ, MIN, @ DET, CHI, @ CBJ) - They must go 3-2-0.  RW 32, ROW 40

4) BUF - We have 7 games remaining (@ FLA, @ DET, CAR, @ NYR, @ NJD,  OTT & @ CBJ) - We must go 5-1-1. RW 33, ROW 41

If all 4 teams tie, FLA and the NYI make the playoffs because they'll likely have the most RWs.  They each have 33 RWs at this point.  Obviously, we have the hardest road, but by the time we play the NYR and NJ they'll may have nothing to play for. 

Tomorrow's game against FLA is critical.  A RW for the Sabres tightens things considerably.  

[thewookie1]

10 hours ago, DarthEbriate said:

Something about Leia mouthing hope and Hoffnung being the translation is hilarious.

[GASabresIUFAN]

Trend analysis

The NYI are 5-4-1 in their last 10 - Keep at the pace they'll reach 91 pts, but they are scuffling lately going 2-3 in their last 5.  If that trend continues, they'll finish with 90 points

The Pens are 4-6-0 in their last 10 - That puts them at 90 points, but they have been slightly better in their last 5 going 3-2.  If that trend continues then they'll reach 92.

FLA is 6-4-0 in their last 10 and 3-2 in their last 5.  That's a consistent 91 pt pace.

BUF is the real wildcard in the Wildcard race.  We are 5-3-2 in our last 10, which would put us at 89 to 90 pts.  However, we are 4-0-1 in our last 5.  Continue that level of play and we'll get to 93 or 94 points.  Wouldn't that shock the world?

Edited April 4, 2023 by GASabresIUFAN

[steveoath]

We might make, we might not. But it will be fun finding out.

[GASabresIUFAN]

Well, the Sabres have to win out to have a chance.  Not impossible, but highly improbable at this point.

At least Levi played beautifully again.

[Taro T]

7 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

Well, the Sabres have to win out to have a chance.  Not impossible, but highly improbable at this point.

At least Levi played beautifully again.

Winning 5 of the last 6 gives them a chance.  Winning all 6 gives them a non-negligible chance.