Buffalo Bills 2023 Thread

[Randall Flagg]

4 minutes ago, Gatorman0519 said:

Cowherds segment on Allen today was spot on.  We are wasting Allen because of coaching.  

 

I can't watch this right now, but Colin has been harping this point so much that he invented a segment this summer to dump on McDermott. The segment was "ranking coach-qb tandems." I'm not sure he had allen/Sean in his top 10. I believe he had Payton-Wilson in his top 4. 

 

So yeah, I'm not watching this clown lmao

Edited October 16, 2023 by Randall Flagg

[Gatorman0519]

40 minutes ago, Randall Flagg said:

I can't watch this right now, but Colin has been harping this point so much that he invented a segment this summer to dump on McDermott. The segment was "ranking coach-qb tandems." I'm not sure he had allen/Sean in his top 10. I believe he had Payton-Wilson in his top 4. 

 

So yeah, I'm not watching this clown lmao

Suit yourself.  I think he makes some valid points.

[Taro T]

One other item in favor of lining up in shot gun rather than under center is that Allen seems to roll out more effectively from shot gun.  If he rolls out from the 1, the D needs to be working about perfectly to stop it because if they try to bring him down, he hits the now open receiver somewhere in the end zone (might be on the other side of the field, but it's there and he'll find that guy) and if they cover properly, Allen either has to break one tackle or simply walks into the endzone.

It's good to have a unicorn under center (or out of the shot gun as the case may be).

[Randall Flagg]

I just won my fantasy matchup 132.92 to 132.58. My opponent had Justin Herbert, who ended the game by throwing an interception on the last non-kneel-down play

Edited October 17, 2023 by Randall Flagg

[ubkev]

32 minutes ago, Randall Flagg said:

I just won my fantasy matchup 132.92 to 132.58. My opponent had Justin Herbert, who ended the game by throwing an interception on the last non-kneel-down play

Beware the stat correction!

[Doohicksie]

23 hours ago, MISabresFan said:

Diggs has made the offense about Diggs.  Diggs first, screw what the defense is giving me.  Always looking for Diggs, because if you don't, I am going to spot off like a spoiled rich kid, point fingers, smash tablets, and ridicule the whole organization on how they don't like to win.  Remember what happened to Baker when a big-name receiver pointed out to the world, and his dad, that I was open and he didn't throw me the ball!  Along came DeShaun.  This whole drama thing has tainted the offense.   I bet Diggs wasn't happy used as a decoy for Harty's touchdown.  

I dunno, I could be totally wrong but I look at the whole "Diggs petulance" thing as performance art.  It's positively Andy Kaufmanesque.

23 hours ago, nfreeman said:

This team looks miles away from being a real contender.  

I'd rather see them struggle early and put it together, than blow people out early and fade down the stretch and into the playoffs.

[Pimlach]

16 hours ago, Randall Flagg said:

Thanks, you always bring the goods so it is a fun chat! I just found this article from last year:

https://theathletic.com/3644701/2022/10/05/nfl-goal-line-shotgun-run-stats/?access_token=11969130&redirected=1

 

This is 10 years of goal-to-go plays from the 1 yard line or closer. 

What matters is one or two years of data on our team.  Data with our QB, our OC, our OL, and our RBs. 
 

Ten years of data of the whole league should look like a wash  
 

Success comes having the personnel to execute the scheme, not the scheme by itself  

 

[Randall Flagg]

1 hour ago, Pimlach said:

What matters is one or two years of data on our team.  Data with our QB, our OC, our OL, and our RBs. 
 

Ten years of data of the whole league should look like a wash  
 

Success comes having the personnel to execute the scheme, not the scheme by itself  

 

Our team has scored multiple times this year in shotgun at the 1. Harris vs Raiders, Jimbo vs Miami. Allen's run against Jacksonville came from the gun, they were at the 2 or 3 though

 They did score with Murray from under center but that was around the 5 yard line. Otherwise they have not scored under center at the 1 this year. 

So our data seems to suggest it works.

And really, ten years of data is not a "wash," it is significantly better than that lmao 

Across many schemes there is a CLEAR statistically significant difference between how your QB lines up. The reasons are obvious - you spread the defense in the part of the field where the major issue offenses have is how condensed it becomes. But even if i grant you that we need to look at the Bills strengths and weaknesses and not league trends as a whole...the Bills are a spread and finesse team that gets shut down by stout interior lines, the exact type that in your thought experiment would struggle with HB dive!

Edited October 17, 2023 by Randall Flagg

[Randall Flagg]

I might be forgetting a Washington touchdown that we scored under center. Don't remember if that one was under center, it was in garbage time. Either way, I'm not also saying that we should never be under center - my point is we need to be multiple, and not being under center at the 1 is FAR from egregious, it is sometimes necessary, and we went 2/2 in the red zone Sunday without ever lining up under center

[That Aud Smell]

15 hours ago, Randall Flagg said:

So yeah, I'm not watching this clown lmao

Cowherd leads my short list of mandatory don't watch.

Besides which, we don't need that dipsh1t to know that there has been a fundamental change (as Eric Wood put it in his post-game comments on Sunday night, iirc) in how the Bills are coaching and managing Josh Allen. They are not running him. They are not allowing him to run.

I infer that other teams planning for the Bills have it a little easier, as they no longer have to account - as much - for Allen running wild.

15 hours ago, Porous Five Hole said:

He will run in the playoffs. The Bills just need to keep him upright until then. 

The irony here is that Allen's injuries - as far as I can recall - have occurred while he's in the pocket. The Jets last year (elbow). The Giants on Sunday night (shoulder).

I suppose those are distinct considerations? That is: Just because he gets injured in the pocket doesn't mean he should run more. 

Or does it? Would a more free Josh be a more safe Josh?

[That Aud Smell]

Further to the question/point above: There were times (a couple? a few?) on Sunday night where it appeared that Allen was thinking too much while moving in the pocket - split seconds of hesitation - should I stay or should I go? I wonder if putting the clamps on him could end up putting him at greater risk. Maybe just teach the guy to slide rather than prohibit him from taking 5-8 yards when it's there to be had.

Edited October 17, 2023 by That Aud Smell

[Randall Flagg]

I think those two giants game hits wouldn't have injured his shoulder if he wasn't flopping to get a call. He could have fallen a lot better than that on both plays IMO. I hated seeing that. 

[That Aud Smell]

11 minutes ago, Randall Flagg said:

I think those two giants game hits wouldn't have injured his shoulder if he wasn't flopping to get a call. 

[Randall Flagg]

3 minutes ago, That Aud Smell said:

Especially the second one. He just looked more interested in flailing his arms around than actually catching and preserving himself.

[That Aud Smell]

56 minutes ago, Randall Flagg said:

Especially the second one. He just looked more interested in flailing his arms around than actually catching and preserving himself.

Hmm. I'll have to look again. Seems unlikely. I think maybe what you're seeing is just sugar-high-Josh.

[Randall Flagg]

1 hour ago, That Aud Smell said:

Hmm. I'll have to look again. Seems unlikely. I think maybe what you're seeing is just sugar-high-Josh.

Do you not think josh embellishes for a call every time he gets breathed on? Or do you think he does so but likely didn't there? We certainly can't know from here but he has a massive propensity to do that, and could not have fallen in a less-efficient way if your interest is preserving health/shoulders/head

[shrader]

36 minutes ago, Randall Flagg said:

Do you not think josh embellishes for a call every time he gets breathed on? Or do you think he does so but likely didn't there? We certainly can't know from here but he has a massive propensity to do that, and could not have fallen in a less-efficient way if your interest is preserving health/shoulders/head

It's a reflex at this point with QBs. 

[Pimlach]

3 hours ago, Randall Flagg said:

 

And really, ten years of data is not a "wash," it is significantly better than that lmao 

Across many schemes there is a CLEAR statistically significant difference between how your QB lines up. The reasons are obvious - you spread the defense in the part of the field where the major issue offenses have is how condensed it becomes. But even if i grant you that we need to look at the Bills strengths and weaknesses and not league trends as a whole...the Bills are a spread and finesse team that gets shut down by stout interior lines, the exact type that in your thought experiment would struggle with HB dive!

The difference is 2% or less, so to me not much difference over 10 years of league data.   I know you like crunching numbers.  

I still would base my play calls more on my players abilities and strengths than any other factor (my second factor would be my opponents weaknesses). 

We have not had powerful run blocking centers and guards  (although the addition of O'Cryrus might improve things in that area) and big bruising power backs in recent years.  So this supports the concepts of spread formations, allow Allen to throw on occasion, or give Allen the option to run.   All of these can be done from a shotgun but are not exclusive to a shotgun.  

I think we are agreeing.  

[That Aud Smell]

50 minutes ago, Randall Flagg said:

Do you not think josh embellishes for a call every time he gets breathed on?

13 minutes ago, shrader said:

It's a reflex at this point with QBs. 

I haven’t considered it before now.

Is it working, at least?

[Randall Flagg]

18 minutes ago, That Aud Smell said:

I haven’t considered it before now.

Is it working, at least?

Yes - he has never gotten flagged for any sort of "embellishment" or "unsportsmanlike conduct" but has drawn a few flags when he shouldn't have gotten them over the years. Though the weak roughing calls he's received recently haven't been a result of embellishment, I would roughly guess that he generates 2-3 flags per year doing it

Edited October 17, 2023 by Randall Flagg

[Night Train]

Back to earth.

Weather report for Bills road game Sunday is rain and wind. Ugh.. Bills already struggling to not beat themselves. Adverse weather seems to bother them more than most.

 

[Sabres Fan in NS]

1 hour ago, Night Train said:

Back to earth.

Weather report for Bills road game Sunday is rain and wind. Ugh.. Bills already struggling to not beat themselves. Adverse weather seems to bother them more than most.

 

Against New England ??

[mjd1001]

2 hours ago, Night Train said:

Back to earth.

Weather report for Bills road game Sunday is rain and wind. Ugh.. Bills already struggling to not beat themselves. Adverse weather seems to bother them more than most.

 

Hopefully that changes. Last time I checked it said the rain should be ending right around kickoff, but as you said, windy during the game.

[That Aud Smell]

2 hours ago, Night Train said:

Weather report for Bills road game Sunday is rain and wind. Ugh.. Bills already struggling to not beat themselves. Adverse weather seems to bother them more than most.

Meh. Per the National Weather Service:

"Sunday. A chance of showers before 1pm. Partly sunny, with a high near 58. Breezy, with a west wind 16 to 21 mph, with gusts as high as 32 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%."

OTOH, Josh has a bad throwing shoulder. So ... . Well, hope for the best.

[Randall Flagg]

We've had great weather so far this year, especially considering the circumstances immediately surrounding a lot of the game days (tropical storm in NY, rainy weekends clearing up around gametime etc.)