Buffalo Bills 2023 Thread

[Pimlach]

18 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

Ken Dorsey is not the answer, but Brian Daboll might be available soon.

I don’t think they get along. 

[Randall Flagg]

The main issue with the Bills offense is when the other team's interior DL and MLB are able to cause havoc and exploit the double teams we employ with the center and guards. Lawrence was a monster last night, as was their MLB. There are a lot of good DTs left on the schedule, DJ Reader, Vita Vea, *gulp* the Eagles, Chris Jones. Gonna have to figure that out.

[That Aud Smell]

26 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

Diggs is getting the ball so much because he is the only receiver who consistently gets open. 

Absofrickinlutely.

Deebo-Ayiuk. Chase-Higgins-(Boyd!). Hill-Waddle.

The Bills cannot count on Gabe Davis. Limited skill set. Limited utility.

9 minutes ago, Randall Flagg said:

What tactical advantage does going under center give you that shotgun doesn't? We averaged like 7 ypc running dart and outside zone out of gun last night. 

I'm not an X's and O's guy, but I've heard/read that a run out of a pistol or gun (btw, are those terms just gonna survive the PC wave of relanguagification? (the "Red River Shootout" did not!)) is a significant "tell" to where the run might/can go.

In addition, getting chunks of yards on a certain run formation from your team's side of the field and as far as the red zone is a sight different than getting a fugging yard when you are on the 1. Citing the success of that scheme tends to ignore the situational nature of play calling. You need a yard to get 6 points. Get close, line up, quick count, huge push, fall forward! 

8 minutes ago, Pimlach said:

The criticism of Diggs is wrong.   Diggs is not the problem.  We lack a legit #2 receiver.  We lack a true slot receiver.  Knox is average.  Kincaid is a hurt rookie.  The RBs are average as in the OL.  Allen and Diggs are who the opponent worries about. 

Agreed, except for the OL and RBs. I think those parts of the team are/can be above-average/good. It's a shame that Cook is on some sort of pitch count. The kid would get rolling last night, break off a couple nice runs, and then *boop*, out of the game for 5 plays.

28 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

Ken Dorsey is not the answer, but Brian Daboll might be available soon.

Is this a serious take? Nfw the Marras move on from Daboll without first letting him get a shot with *his* QB. Look what he did for Allen!

[GASabresIUFAN]

1 minute ago, That Aud Smell said:

Is this a serious take? Nfw the Marras move on from Daboll without first letting him get a shot with *his* QB. Look what he did for Allen!

It was a joke.

[Pimlach]

25 minutes ago, Randall Flagg said:

What tactical advantage does going under center give you that shotgun doesn't? We averaged like 7 ypc running dart and outside zone out of gun last night. It has been our best run concept and is in gun so dawkins can get across to his gap. Our shotgun plays were better last night.  Our play action plays sucked because the Giants watched tape and never bit. The wgr crowd is becoming insufferable with the narrative that under center magically fixes our problems that are being manifest in the shotgun. The giants' blitzes were terrorizing the under center/play action plays that these guys wanted so bad. Josh Allen is a shotgun quarterback and always will be, he sees the field so much better that way, and while you need to do both, the Bills scored on both their red zone trips and on a goal line play that they were in shotgun for. 

Against a stacked line in short yardage:  

When QB is under center -  The play is based on timing.  The RB runs to line and gets the ball on the way, so you are starting with speed and you hit the hole with momentum.  If no hole, the RB might be able to make one,  or find a seam, or bounce it outside. The RBs power comes from speed.  F=ma. 
 

In the shotgun - the qb gets the ball to awaiting RB with no speed or momentum. If no hole you usually lose yards. 
 

You literally learn this before high school level football.  

Edited October 16, 2023 by Pimlach

[Randall Flagg]

If we had not added Floyd (how was he available for that price, so late?) Or had epenesa break out, I would be so concerned about how long Von will take to look normal, or even if he ever will. He's been ugly. Just hoping 50, 56, and 57 can stay healthy because they have been great. And Shaq and Kingsley have been good behind them too. 

1 minute ago, Pimlach said:

Against a stacked Lin in short yardage:  

When QB is under center -  The play is based on timing.  The RB runs to line and gets the ball on the way, so you are starting with speed and you hit the hole with momentum.  If no hole, the RB might be able to make one,  or find a seam, or bounce it outside. The RBs power comes from speed.  F=ma. 
 

In the shotgun - the qb gets the ball to awaiting RB with no speed or momentum. If no hole you usually lose yards. 
 

You literally learn this before high school level football.  

Which is why "someone tell dorsey this!" Doesn't do it for me. 

[Randall Flagg]

I understand the "running back head start" thing. But there is nobody at this level of football who doesnt, so you have to explore why they tried handing off in gun/pistol with that in mind. I don't have the answer for you, but I'm "trusting the experts" on this one that there's a reason for it - perhaps being under center there is too obvious a run tell if they were worried about the interior getting blown up on an under center pass play (as it had happened often last night) and knew the Giants knew that, so shotgun was the only way they felt they could be a pass/run threat. They've had run attempts under center at 1st and goal before this year and they've scored on multiple runs from gun in the same spot. They were 100% in the red zone last night. I don't think our OC is that silly I guess

 

[Pimlach]

1 minute ago, Randall Flagg said:

If we had not added Floyd (how was he available for that price, so late?) Or had epenesa break out, I would be so concerned about how long Von will take to look normal, or even if he ever will. He's been ugly. Just hoping 50, 56, and 57 can stay healthy because they have been great. And Shaq and Kingsley have been good behind them too. 

Which is why "someone tell dorsey this!" Doesn't do it for me. 

Well those are the basic facts of running from the two formations.   A benefit the shotgun gives you is the threat of the quick pass.  Which is why Dorsey is using it, it makes you think pass.  From the shotgun the defense has to think about the quick slant or fade into the end zone.   For runs from the shotgun to work he is counting on the IOL to win their battles, and they quite often do not, especially when they are outnumbered in the middle.    
 

Of course, being under center gives you the option of play action too.

[That Aud Smell]

1 hour ago, Randall Flagg said:

If we had not added Floyd (how was he available for that price, so late?) Or had epenesa break out, I would be so concerned about how long Von will take to look normal, or even if he ever will. He's been ugly. Just hoping 50, 56, and 57 can stay healthy because they have been great. And Shaq and Kingsley have been good behind them too. 

Cripes, man. Give the guy some time. If all goes according to plan, he probably won't be feeling right until December-ish.

From my perch in the 300s, I saw one rush on an obvious passing down where he got a very good jump and forced Tyrod to move.

59 minutes ago, Pimlach said:

Of course, being under center gives you the option of play action too.

Play action, you say?

SOMEONE TELL DORSEY ABOUT THIS TOO.

[MattPie]

38 minutes ago, That Aud Smell said:

Play action, you say?

SOMEONE TELL DORSEY ABOUT THIS TOO.

You need a credible run game to make play-action work. It sounds like the Bills may actually be successfully running the ball lately, so it's just so crazy it might work.

[Scottysabres]

11 hours ago, shrader said:

Is there some inside joke on the spelling there or was it just created by an idiot? I’ll readily admit that the answer to both questions can be yes. 

Show us on the spelling bee test where it hurt you.

[sodbuster]

29 minutes ago, MattPie said:

You need a credible run game to make play-action work. It sounds like the Bills may actually be successfully running the ball lately, so it's just so crazy it might work.

You actually don't. 

https://cowboyswire.usatoday.com/2020/01/18/nfl-analytics-study-running-the-ball-play-action-success-mike-mccarthy-dallas-cowboys/

https://theathletic.com/980870/2019/07/26/teams-dont-have-to-establish-the-run-to-win-games-and-the-analytics-proves-it-but-the-run-isnt-dead-either/

[Randall Flagg]

1 hour ago, That Aud Smell said:

Cripes, man. Give the guy some time. If all goes according to plan, he probably won't be feeling right until December-ish.

From my perch in the 300s, I saw one rush on an obvious passing down where he got a very good jump and forced Tyrod to move.

Play action, you say?

SOMEONE TELL DORSEY ABOUT THIS TOO.

Play action is designed to suck linebackers in and create space behind them. The giants watched our film and didn't get sucked in. Play action from under center is vulnerable to A gap blitzes, or great DTs. The giants knew this and employed it effectively. This is why you need to do everything, and need to do everything well. I am completely unconvinced that we didn't do one thing or another enough last night. We certainly didn't do everything well.

Edited October 16, 2023 by Randall Flagg

[Randall Flagg]

There's an idea in the fan base that we have an easy button we just aren't pressing enough, but that's just not how it works. There are counters to every easy button that will shut you down the second you start to show tendencies, so you need to break tendencies. I can name about 25 examples of dorsey breaking tendencies that are years in the making for big plays this year. You need to do everything from every formation so that defenses second-guess and guess wrong. Our play action success is great but it already became "not so simple" against a bad giants team, in part because their MLB played the game of his life

[That Aud Smell]

2 minutes ago, Randall Flagg said:

Play action is designed to suck linebackers in and create space behind them. The giants watched our film and didn't get sucked in. Play action from under center is vulnerable to A gap blitzes, or great DTs. The giants knew this and employed it effectively. This is why you need to do everything, and need to do everything well. I am completely unconvinced that we didn't do one thing or another enough last night. We certainly didn't do everything well.

sure. okay. fine.

just -- when you're at the 1 yard line -- line up with every offensive lineman you have (illegal?) plus emergency-activate that one sumo wrestler p. squad guy (Yossha!) -- and give it to latavius or, better yet, have josh crawl up torrence's butthole, through it, and into the end zone.

1 minute ago, Randall Flagg said:

There's an idea in the fan base that we have an easy button we just aren't pressing enough, but that's just not how it works. There are counters to every easy button that will shut you down the second you start to show tendencies, so you need to break tendencies. I can name about 25 examples of dorsey breaking tendencies that are years in the making for big plays this year. You need to do everything from every formation so that defenses second-guess and guess wrong. Our play action success is great but it already became "not so simple" against a bad giants team, in part because their MLB played the game of his life

Good insights here. We hear this a lot: "We need to be multiple."

[JujuFish]

7 hours ago, Night Train said:

 Wow.

Watched the 2nd half this morning. The O llooks like a dysfunctional bottom 5 team for 3 quarters.  Giants should have won that game. Pathetic. 

 

They only had three 2nd half drives, scored a TD on two of them, and a Knox dropped pass and a Bass missed FG prevented points on the third.

[Randall Flagg]

1 hour ago, That Aud Smell said:

sure. okay. fine.

just -- when you're at the 1 yard line -- line up with every offensive lineman you have (illegal?) plus emergency-activate that one sumo wrestler p. squad guy (Yossha!) 

Like when the Giants got stuffed trying this in the first half? The Bills have been stuffed doing that this year, and have scored with pistol/shotgun runs in the same scenario. I get questioning it if we fail, but our red zone TD%  was 100 yesterday

In general yes I do think that should be at least 1-2 of your attempts if you get first and goal inside the 2, though. I also think we would have seen allen shove the pile in had he not screwed up his shoulder

[MISabresFan]

6 hours ago, LGR4GM said:

 

 

Diggs is getting the ball so much because he is the only receiver who consistently gets open. The Bills offense isn't good because Knox is average, Gabe Davis should be a 3wr, and the Bills truly do not have a legit #2 wr anyone needs to consistently worry about. What you wrote here is total bullcrap and is typical Buffalo "blame the good players" mentality. 

During the game last night, when 17 was pitching the ball to "if you don't I will throw a sh _t fit" there were other Receivers open.  The QB read should not be A) throw it to the one who complains the most or B) the one with the larger contract.  Teams pick up on that.  Maybe why the offense looked so bad the last two games.

[LGR4GM]

1 minute ago, MISabresFan said:

During the game last night, when 17 was pitching the ball to "if you don't I will throw a sh _t fit" there were other Receivers open.  The QB read should not be A) throw it to the one who complains the most or B) the one with the larger contract.  Teams pick up on that.  Maybe why the offense looked so bad the last two games.

You think the offense looks bad because the guy with... checks notes... 8 receptions for 121yrds and 10 receptions for 100yrds in the last two games is getting thrown too? That is a take. I think it is a terrible take but it is a take. Davis was 3 of 4 for 21yrds and 6 of 8 for 100yrds in the last 2 games btw. So in at least 1 of those games, Allen was not simply looking for Diggs. Knox has the EXACT same stats for both games, 3 of 6 for 17yrds... because Knox is mid. 

[That Aud Smell]

1 hour ago, Randall Flagg said:

Like when the Giants got stuffed trying this in the first half? The Bills have been stuffed doing that this year, and have scored with pistol/shotgun runs in the same scenario. I get questioning it if we fail, but our red zone TD%  was 100 yesterday

In general yes I do think that should be at least 1-2 of your attempts if you get first and goal inside the 2, though. I also think we would have seen allen shove the pile in had he not screwed up his shoulder

Fair deuce. I appreciate your insights and takes on the fooohbawh.

6 minutes ago, MISabresFan said:

During the game last night, when 17 was pitching the ball to "if you don't I will throw a sh _t fit" there were other Receivers open.  The QB read should not be A) throw it to the one who complains the most or B) the one with the larger contract.  Teams pick up on that.  Maybe why the offense looked so bad the last two games.

I have hung out on teh interwebs long enough to wonder - genuinely - whether this is a bit.

if it is, it's pretty funny.

[Randall Flagg]

Just now, That Aud Smell said:

Fair deuce. I appreciate your insights and takes on the fooohbawh.

I have hung out on teh interwebs long enough to wonder - genuinely - whether this is a bit.

if it is, it's pretty funny.

Thanks, you always bring the goods so it is a fun chat! I just found this article from last year:

https://theathletic.com/3644701/2022/10/05/nfl-goal-line-shotgun-run-stats/?access_token=11969130&redirected=1

 

This is 10 years of goal-to-go plays from the 1 yard line or closer. 

[Randall Flagg]

11 minutes ago, MISabresFan said:

During the game last night, when 17 was pitching the ball to "if you don't I will throw a sh _t fit" there were other Receivers open.  The QB read should not be A) throw it to the one who complains the most or B) the one with the larger contract.  Teams pick up on that.  Maybe why the offense looked so bad the last two games.

The Bills have progressions for each play based on the coverages and leverages Allen sees. Allen is allowed to break these rules when he has a 1v1 matchup he likes in man. He really likes Diggs 1v1 versus anyone, so Diggs gets a lot of targets. He also trusts Diggs more than anyone, and you see why when Gabe fumbles and Knox drops

[Buffalonill]

So i'm confused did the buffalo coaches basically tell allen to stop running? 

I think that's a huge mistake That's the X factor of one of the top 5 players in the league. 

 

Edited October 16, 2023 by Buffalonill

[Porous Five Hole]

1 hour ago, Buffalonill said:

So i'm confused did the buffalo coaches basically tell allen to stop running? 

I think that's a huge mistake That's the X factor of one of the top 5 players in the league. 

 

He will run in the playoffs. The Bills just need to keep him upright until then. 

[Gatorman0519]

Cowherds segment on Allen today was spot on.  We are wasting Allen because of coaching.