Buffalo Bills 2023 Thread

[Eleven]

14 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

I expect Davis, Elam, and Espensa to be gone by next season.  Davis could have a great year and even then he'll be too expensive to keep.  Elam could get a 3rd year, because he's cheap, but if Benford has a good season, they'll be no reason to keep him.

Epenesa might stick.  But otherwise, I've seane what neade to from Beane.

[That Aud Smell]

24 minutes ago, Eleven said:

But let's also not forget that Mahomes was right there for the Bills the year before (I do not think Beane had been hired yet, though), and while the Bills got an excellent CB out of that, it's not really the same as a QB with two Super Bowl rings.  

I don't think Mahomes becomes who and what he is if he were drafted into Buffalo at that time. Without Andy Reid acting as his Yoda, I think Skywalker Mahomes would have still been really good and exciting, but also would have had some Jeff George to him.

[Taro T]

13 minutes ago, Eleven said:

That's exactly why it should be given less weight, frankly.  Other than Mel Kiper (who gets a LOT wrong), draft pundits (who also get a LOT wrong) panned it.  Beane got very, very lucky there.  And I'm glad he did.  But let's also not forget that Mahomes was right there for the Bills the year before (I do not think Beane had been hired yet, though), and while the Bills got an excellent CB out of that, it's not really the same as a QB with two Super Bowl rings.  (I believe the other returns from the trade--Edmunds and then some complicated thing with the Rams that I can't quite trace--are gone.)

So great.  Beane drafted Allen.  He hasn't done very well since, regardless of what some inscrutable chart says.

They had Rick Dennison as the OC the year Mahomes was drafted.  Can see why they didn't see that as ideal for a QB brand new to the league.

Pretty sure they also thought there was a solid possibility that their draft spot in 2018 would be pretty high as they dumped nearly all their "name" players and kept Tyrod Taylor at QB.  Had they started out at 10 in that draft rather than 21 they definitely don't have to give up as much draft capital to get to 7 and 16 in that draft.

So, the plan from day 1 when McDermott showed up to not let the outgoing GM draft the QB of the future (hello Buddy; been there, done that) and instead wait until the GM he trusted was in place with a draft class that next year coming along which compared at least prior to the draft as in the same league as the vaunted 1983 QB class.

And the reason many (not sure if it's most or not, but many Bills fans, this one included, felt this way) Bills fans didn't want Allen is while he had the most raw tools of any of the QBs available in '18; he also was the most raw and the Bills coaching staff included a HC with a defensive pedigree, an OC who had success as a receivers and TE coach with some schmuck named Brady but had no success in any form as an OC in the NFL and had spent the previous year as an OC at Alabama, and a QB coach (David Culley) that nobody had ever heard of.  Throw in arguably the worst WR corps in the league and a mediocre at best offensive line.  Who in their right mind EXPECTS that to be a successful situation for him to walk into.  

Had Mahomes gone to the Bills and Allen to the Chefs; expect Josh would be the one with 2 SB's but not positive we'd be looking at Mahomes as a sure fire HoFer.

 

And as for Beane not being any good at drafting, pretty sure 11 of his picks are going to be starters on this team this season and at least 3 others will be starting for other teams.  And if the "Punt God" weren't railroaded out of the league, it would be 15 of his picks are starters.  15 out of 25 (11 O, 11 D, 3 ST) in 6 years.  That seems pretty good from this vantage point.  And on a team that won it's division the past 3 years and is the favorite to do so again.

[GASabresIUFAN]

One thing is for sure; NFL truly means Not For Long.

[K-9]

The Kirksey signing will be seen as a difference maker eventually. He’s gonna be starting at MLB much sooner than later. Well done Beane.

[Randall Flagg]

1 hour ago, Eleven said:

That's exactly why it should be given less weight, frankly.  Other than Mel Kiper (who gets a LOT wrong), draft pundits (who also get a LOT wrong) panned it.  Beane got very, very lucky there.  And I'm glad he did.  But let's also not forget that Mahomes was right there for the Bills the year before (I do not think Beane had been hired yet, though), and while the Bills got an excellent CB out of that, it's not really the same as a QB with two Super Bowl rings.  (I believe the other returns from the trade--Edmunds and then some complicated thing with the Rams that I can't quite trace--are gone.)

So great.  Beane drafted Allen.  He hasn't done very well since, regardless of what some inscrutable chart says.

Beane and McDermott, from day one, talked up the traits that they saw that made them willing to literally stake their careers on Josh Allen, and those traits are why he is now a transcendent QB. "Beane got lucky because Nate silver-esque dweebs didn't like Allen" 

[Randall Flagg]

1 hour ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

The problem with any draft evaluation is separating Busts from depth players from starters from stars.  Beane has been very good at finding depth players like Hamlin, Dane Jackson, and Saron Neal, and nominal starters, but outside of Allen and maybe Edmunds what star player has he found?  Rousseau was a nice pick and a starter, but Spenser Brown is a starter only by necessity.  Knox regressed last year.   Ed Oliver is solid but not exactly a star.  However, he also gave us Ford, Moss, Basham, Espensa, Elam, and even Singletary and Gabe Davis.  These guys are mostly busts or starters out of necessity but don't really elevate the team.

It is a good point that there are tiers to this and you'd rather hit early than late based on definition of "hit" in that range.  But you still haven't shown me how he lags other teams in that area. The McBeane regime has drafted 3 players capable of all pro seasons in 6 drafts so far (Allen, Tre, Milano). To believe the bills Lag is to believe that this is bad compared to 31 other teams. I am incredibly skeptical that that's true. 

29 minutes ago, K-9 said:

The Kirksey signing will be seen as a difference maker eventually. He’s gonna be starting at MLB much sooner than later. Well done Beane.

Was hoping we'd grab him

[GASabresIUFAN]

15 minutes ago, Randall Flagg said:

It is a good point that there are tiers to this and you'd rather hit early than late based on definition of "hit" in that range.  But you still haven't shown me how he lags other teams in that area. The McBeane regime has drafted 3 players capable of all pro seasons in 6 drafts so far (Allen, Tre, Milano). To believe the bills Lag is to believe that this is bad compared to 31 other teams. I am incredibly skeptical that that's true. 

Was hoping we'd grab him

Milano, Dawkins and White were drafted before Beane became the GM.  The 2017 draft was in April, Beane became GM in May.  The only “star’ player drafted by Beane on the Bills is Allen.

[Taro T]

15 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

Milano, Dawkins and White were drafted before Beane became the GM.  The 2017 draft was in April, Beane became GM in May.  The only “star’ player drafted by Beane on the Bills is Allen.

Yes, 2 of those arrived prior to Beane.  But both of those 2 were well within the MC portion of the McBeane era.

Edmonds, who is getting a truck ton of money from Chicago seems to be much more highly rated elsewhere than in Buffalo would, by the way he gets ball washed on the broadcasts, also arguably be called a star.  Wyatt Teller is a star (well as much as a guard on a horrible team can be).  And Harrison Phillips is still a beast.  All, Beane draft picks.

How many players selected outside the top 1/2 of the top round are expected to be "stars?"  Especially w/in their 1st 3 seasons?  Beane has had exactly 3 picks in the top 1/2 of the 1st round in his 6 drafts: Allen, Edmonds, and Oliver.  Oliver was looking real last year until the high ankle sprain.  Let's see how he does this year before declaring Beane can't draft "stars."  He absolutely can draft starters.

Edited August 30, 2023 by Taro T

[mjd1001]

As far as Beane goes, my opinion is he his "OK".  Don't love him, don't hate him. But as far as judging him by his drafting record.....I always had the impression since he got here that the draft was as much McDermott as it was Beane. Yes, Beane is the GM, but I don't think a pick gets made without McDermott signing off on it...and if it came down to a difference of opinion I think McDermott wins out.

[Randall Flagg]

39 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

Milano, Dawkins and White were drafted before Beane became the GM.  The 2017 draft was in April, Beane became GM in May.  The only “star’ player drafted by Beane on the Bills is Allen.

I did forget that Beane showed up after the draft that year. The rest of my point stands- even if he only drafted one all pro at the QB position, what teams are pulling them out of every draft, or even every other draft? Because any time anyone quantifies this, no matter the way they do it, they come to the conclusion that Beane is either good or excellent. 

[JujuFish]

1 hour ago, Randall Flagg said:

I did forget that Beane showed up after the draft that year. The rest of my point stands- even if he only drafted one all pro at the QB position, what teams are pulling them out of every draft, or even every other draft? Because any time anyone quantifies this, no matter the way they do it, they come to the conclusion that Beane is either good or excellent. 

2017 and 2018 were both very good draft years. Two All Pros in Tre White and Milano, multiple-time Pro Bowlers in Dawkins, Edmunds, Allen, and Wyatt Teller.

 

The problem is that there hasn't been any great success since then. The combined number of pro bowls by players drafted by the Bills since: 1 (Dawson Knox, 2022).  I wonder how many other teams can say that have drafted no more than a combined 1 Pro Bowl appearance since 2019.

Edited August 30, 2023 by JujuFish

[Taro T]

21 minutes ago, JujuFish said:

2017 and 2018 were both very good draft years. Two All Pros in Tre White and Milano, multiple-time Pro Bowlers in Dawkins, Edmunds, Allen, and Wyatt Teller.

 

The problem is that there hasn't been any great success since then. The combined number of pro bowls by players drafted by the Bills since: 1 (Dawson Knox, 2022).  I wonder how many other teams can say that have drafted no more than a combined 1 Pro Bowl appearance since 2019.

Question: how many players not drafted in the top 1/2 of the 1st round make the Pro Bowl in their 1st couple of seasons?  The Bills last player drafted in the top 1/2 of the 1st round is Ed Oliver who actually was playing very well last year until the high ankle sprain.

They didn't have a 1st rounder in '19 (traded it in the deal to move up to get Edmonds); Rousseau was 30th overall; Elam was 23rd and is still working at becoming a zone corner as his skillset doesn't fit this team's scheme; and Kincaid hasn't played a down in real time yet.

Personally, am impressed with their drafting track record since Beane took over as he's drafted ~11 starters on a 3 time defending division champion and has drafted at least 3 starters on other teams around the league.  That's in 6 years starting out (prior to trades) with the 21st, 9th, 22nd, 30th, 23rd, & 25th overall picks.  They also used one of those picks to land Stephon Diggs.  That seems like a pretty good "pick" from this vantage point.

[K-9]

Once again, the tired narrative of Allen being a long shot prospect and that Beane got lucky has come to the fore, so I’ll once again try to set it straight. 

The only people who thought Allen would bust were some low knowledge talking heads who created the entire narrative around the arbitrary idea that a completion percentage of less than 60% in college meant certain failure at the next level. The truth is, Josh Allen was considered a consensus blue chip prospect by GMs, scouts, and other personnel evaluators. That was told to me personally by three league GMs, several scouts, and a couple pro personnel directors around the league shortly after the 2018 draft. The only question was in what order Mayfield, Darnold, Rosen, and Allen would be selected. Although he blew teams away with his intelligence, aptitude for the game, and physical prowess, Allen was considered the least experienced of the four, which was true, and it was thought that he’d need a year of carrying a clipboard and acquainting himself with the pro game. Unfortunately (or fortunately, depending how you look at it) Allen was forced into a starting role much earlier than desired. And while he took his lumps, it was evident to everyone with half a clue that he was special as has been borne out since.

As for Beane getting lucky, it was more design than luck. The Bills and several other teams were onto Allen since his 2016 college season. Indeed, it was reported in some circles that he might go high in the 2017 draft, perhaps number one overall according to an SI article at the time, if he came out after that season. Anyway, Beane had his sights set on Allen and while it was lucky that the Browns and Jets passed, it was a masterful series of maneuvers to move up from the 22nd pick to number 7 in the draft to get the guy they wanted. That took skill far more than luck. 
 

 

Edited August 30, 2023 by K-9

[JohnC]

1 minute ago, K-9 said:

Once again, the tired narrative of Allen being a long shot prospect and that Beane got lucky has come to fore, so I’ll once again try to set it straight. 

The only people who thought Allen would bust were some low knowledge talking heads who created the entire narrative around the arbitrary idea that a completion percentage of less than 60% in college meant certain failure at the next level. The truth is, Josh Allen was considered a consensus blue chip prospect by GMs, scouts, and other personnel evaluators. That was told to me personally by three league GMs, several scouts, and a couple pro personnel directors around the league shortly after the 2018 draft. The only question was in what order Mayfield, Darnold, Rosen, and Allen would be selected. Although he blew teams away with his intelligence, aptitude for the game, and physical prowess, Allen was considered the least experienced of the four, which was true, and it was thought that he’d need a year of carrying a clipboard and acquainting himself with the pro game. Unfortunately (or fortunately, depending how you look at it) Allen was forced into a starting role much earlier than desired. And while he took his lumps, it was evident to everyone with half a clue that he was special as has been borne out since.

As for Beane getting lucky, it was more design than luck. The Bills and several other teams were onto Allen since his 2016 college season. Indeed, it was reported in some circles that he might go high in the 2017 draft, perhaps number one overall according to an SI article at the time, if he came out after that season. Anyway, Beane had his sights set on Allen and while it was lucky that the Browns and Jets passed, it was a masterful series of maneuvers to move up from the 22nd pick to number 7 in the draft to get the guy they wanted. That took skill far more than luck. 
 

 

If I recall correctly Kiper had Allen as his top qb prospect. 

[Claude Balls]

14 hours ago, LGR4GM said:

Drafting and continuing to waste assets on rb and de while basically ignoring the offensive line is a major reason for ppls concern. 

 

I agree with this 100%. O'Cyrus might be a stud. But they should've been drafting these guys for the past few years. Washed up re-treads aren't gonna cut it. You're biggest asset is Josh Allen. You have to protect that man period. Why they are so adamant on building the defense is baffling.  

[JujuFish]

3 hours ago, Taro T said:

Question: how many players not drafted in the top 1/2 of the 1st round make the Pro Bowl in their 1st couple of seasons?

Considering the number of people who make the Pro Bowl at all in their first couple seasons is going to be limited, I imagine it's pretty rare.  I don't know if there's an easy way to look that up.

[LGR4GM]

17 hours ago, Randall Flagg said:

 

I just scalped this picture from Twitter but it was a legit study of some sort. I know the ESPN one (roughly same range, put the Bills FIRST IN THE NFL) quantified it by judging how good your players were relative to the average player taken at that spot in the draft. Again, I've seen about 20 of these over the last few years and they all wind up putting the Bills in very good light. 

There are arguments to be made that the Bills need to get better at draft-adjacent things, like what Liger hints at - screwing up the DL for a few years means they keep needing to dip back into that well with premium picks and big free agent bucks, which isn't ideal because other parts of the roster take a hit. I have no issue with agreeing with that. But fans who blanket declare beane to be bad at drafting, which appears to be the general consensus, aren't right, and their reasoning is lazy because it ignores what the baseline is 

And I'm not ignoring the ***** Allen draft, man. It's the most important pick you can make and they hit a grand slam. "Don't count that" gtfo lmao. Would I be allowed to remove every team's best pick too?

 

Sorry but for me without knowing the source or methods and only have this to go off of, doesn't really hold much weight. If u had that information, it would be different.

[That Aud Smell]

7 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

Sorry but for me without knowing the source or methods and only have this to go off of, doesn't really hold much weight. If u had that information, it would be different.

I tried Googling to find that ranking’s origins (and therefore methodology). I searched nfl gm ranking draft “dvr “. The first result I got was someone posting something to The Stadium Wall. 😂 

[That Aud Smell]

Okay - getting closer.

https://x.com/kevinmassare/status/1696566761993236553?s=46&t=8AaprMag9hOIH1BLrzxS3Q

(Bummer the Tweets don’t (readily) populate here anymore. Thanks, Elon.)

[That Aud Smell]

Hansen is apparently a Cover1 writer (?). Here’s the full write up. 
 

 

As someone pointed out in the retweet thread, adding Cook and Torrence to Beane’s 2nd round grade should boost his poor metrics in that round.

[That Aud Smell]

On 8/29/2023 at 3:35 PM, That Aud Smell said:

They must be planning to sign a FA OT or trade for one.

Upgrading at MLB and QB2 also seems possible.

OT - Germain Ifedi

LB - Christian Kirksey

QB - Shane Beuchele (KC cut (they opted for Blaine Yo Gaba Gabbert as QB2))

No idea what these players might bring to the table, but at least Beane and his FO have tried to create more depth at each of the team's weakest positions.

[Gatorman0519]

On 8/29/2023 at 6:37 PM, Flashsabre said:

Stop posting facts. It ruins people’s narratives😀

0 Super Bowl appearances let alone championships for some guy's lame take on drafting. 

[Porous Five Hole]

When Spectrum pulled ESPN off their lineup last week, I did not expect the stand-off to go as far as it has (today and beyond). Typically, Rochester is not considered local enough to get the local affiliate broadcast. I could be in trouble for MNF and the home opener.
Normally I would just go to the bar, but I have daddy duty that night. I might have to 🏴‍☠️, but it’s a lot less fun watching on an iPad. 

[Weave]

5 minutes ago, Porous Five Hole said:

When Spectrum pulled ESPN off their lineup last week, I did not expect the stand-off to go as far as it has (today and beyond). Typically, Rochester is not considered local enough to get the local affiliate broadcast. I could be in trouble for MNF and the home opener.
Normally I would just go to the bar, but I have daddy duty that night. I might have to 🏴‍☠️, but it’s a lot less fun watching on an iPad. 

Airplay is your friend.