Buffalo Bills 2023 Thread

[Night Train]

On 5/6/2023 at 8:29 AM, Flashsabre said:

All I remember is tons of online fans declaring that they were done with the Bills forever if they took Josh Allen over Josh Rosen.😂

 I was at the stadium draft party, sitting right in front of the stage where McDermott and Beane both came out later to speak.. 

" Wrong Josh " chants actually started with a dozen people. A guy behind me wanted to get physical with anyone that disagreed with him. True story. I told my friend I would never attend another draft party.  I don't recall them having another. 

 

[Eleven]

6 minutes ago, Night Train said:

 I was at the stadium draft party, sitting right in front of the stage where McDermott and Beane both came out later to speak.. 

" Wrong Josh " chants actually started with a dozen people. A guy behind me wanted to get physical with anyone that disagreed with him. True story. I told my friend I would never attend another draft party.  I don't recall them having another. 

 

I was at a packed sports bar; the entire place deflated and went silent on the word "Allen," myself included.

No one tried to start a fight, though--what was that all about?

[shrader]

1 minute ago, Eleven said:

I was at a packed sports bar; the entire place deflated and went silent on the word "Allen," myself included.

No one tried to start a fight, though--what was that all about?

Alcohol

[K-9]

The moral of the Josh Allen story is don’t take the word of talking head pundits, draftniks, and analytic geeks who can’t see beyond raw numbers. They simply don’t possess the insight and context necessary to make predictions before a prospect has even played a down in the league.

The old axiom usually holds true: you can’t fairly judge a QB prospect until he has 1,000 snaps under his belt. You may see glimpses of a bust, glimpses of greatness, and glimpses of everything in between as those snaps accumulate in the meantime. 

[Eleven]

1 hour ago, K-9 said:

The moral of the Josh Allen story is don’t take the word of talking head pundits, draftniks, and analytic geeks who can’t see beyond raw numbers. They simply don’t possess the insight and context necessary to make predictions before a prospect has even played a down in the league.

The old axiom usually holds true: you can’t fairly judge a QB prospect until he has 1,000 snaps under his belt. You may see glimpses of a bust, glimpses of greatness, and glimpses of everything in between as those snaps accumulate in the meantime. 

I've always waited 40 games for a QB. Edwards, Manuel, Taylor, Allen, before them, whatever.  2.5 seasons.  

But why not "take the word of talking head pundits, draftniks, and analytic geeks who can’t see beyond raw numbers"?  They may have been wrong with Allen, but surely they have been right with others?  I have a friend who was pushing for Allen in 2018, but that doesn't make him a draft expert (and believe me, this is the type of guy who thinks he is an expert in everything and actually is an expert in getting something right one percent of the time), should I trust him from now on?

I mean, they know more than I do.  And they do seem to be right more often than not (Mel Kiper notwithstanding.)  They spend a year doing this stuff, and I spend about an hour and a half.  So why are they unqualified?  

 

[sabills]

On 5/6/2023 at 9:34 AM, inkman said:

I don’t blame a single fan for feeling that way.  The draft is a crapshoot.  

Yep, Allen was a lotto ticket with low odds that paid out.

[Taro T]

48 minutes ago, Eleven said:

I've always waited 40 games for a QB. Edwards, Manuel, Taylor, Allen, before them, whatever.  2.5 seasons.  

But why not "take the word of talking head pundits, draftniks, and analytic geeks who can’t see beyond raw numbers"?  They may have been wrong with Allen, but surely they have been right with others?  I have a friend who was pushing for Allen in 2018, but that doesn't make him a draft expert (and believe me, this is the type of guy who thinks he is an expert in everything and actually is an expert in getting something right one percent of the time), should I trust him from now on?

I mean, they know more than I do.  And they do seem to be right more often than not (Mel Kiper notwithstanding.)  They spend a year doing this stuff, and I spend about an hour and a half.  So why are they unqualified?  

 

They do.  But they also have their biases and oftentimes want to support a certain narrative.  Just like with reporting on other fields, the reporting will give you an idea of what's going on, but if you aren't privy to primary sources you won't get much more than an idea of what's going on.

But it's also like an extension of the old adage.

Those that can, do.  Those that can't, teach.  Those that can't do that, report.  And those that can't even do that become "journalists."

[Eleven]

2 minutes ago, Taro T said:

They do.  But they also have their biases and oftentimes want to support a certain narrative.  Just like with reporting on other fields, the reporting will give you an idea of what's going on, but if you aren't privy to primary sources you won't get much more than an idea of what's going on.

But it's also like an extension of the old adage.

Those that can, do.  Those that can't, teach.  Those that can't do that, report.  And those that can't even do that become "journalists."

I get you, and I don't think you're far off.  But they have different and better information than we do.

[K-9]

1 hour ago, Eleven said:

I've always waited 40 games for a QB. Edwards, Manuel, Taylor, Allen, before them, whatever.  2.5 seasons.  

But why not "take the word of talking head pundits, draftniks, and analytic geeks who can’t see beyond raw numbers"?  They may have been wrong with Allen, but surely they have been right with others?  I have a friend who was pushing for Allen in 2018, but that doesn't make him a draft expert (and believe me, this is the type of guy who thinks he is an expert in everything and actually is an expert in getting something right one percent of the time), should I trust him from now on?

I mean, they know more than I do.  And they do seem to be right more often than not (Mel Kiper notwithstanding.)  They spend a year doing this stuff, and I spend about an hour and a half.  So why are they unqualified?  

 

Feel free to keep taking the the word of whomever you like. Just keep a dump truck of salt nearby when you do. 

Seriously though, there are several very good talking head evaluators out there, but they don’t come close to possessing the sheer amount of intelligence gathered about prospects compared to the league. All scouts and GMs get it wrong at times, but not nearly as often as those not intimately involved in the process on a regular basis. The pundits and draftniks just don’t have the time and resources necessary, simple as that. 

Regarding Allen, the 60% completion rate narrative was as ignorant as it gets, but people bought it hook, line, and sinker at the time and so he became “wrong Josh” as a result. Story after story about how no QB with a comparable completion percentage ever made it. NONE of that mattered to the GMs and scouts because their deep dives into Allen enabled them go give EVERY play of his the proper context for evaluation. And when I say every play of his, I mean EVERY play. Broken down several times. With input from his college coaches to boot. 

60% is an arbitrary number anyway. A completely made up benchmark. Hell, it took John Elway, the highest rated prospect in history, 10 seasons before he achieved that bullcrap milestone. 😂

Edited May 7, 2023 by K-9

[Randall Flagg]

17 hours ago, sabills said:

Yep, Allen was a lotto ticket with low odds that paid out.

This is overly simplistic

Allen's processing speed has always been elite, Beane measured it at the time and has talked about it. Elite QBs can read the field at lightning speed and this is measurable and rare and Allen had it

Allen's film showed that his accuracy issues were not innate, but a function of how much his mechanics broke down on the play, his accuracy was excellent when his mechanics were right and his work ethic/habits made clear to the regime that he had the drive to fix them

None of this was true of his lazy comps like Kyle Boller, and so much of what Josh had was incredibly rare from the start

Most people (I was a poster boy for this) just revered a football "expert class" that sniffs its own farts and doesn't deserve this level of reverence (a pattern that appears in all facets of life), those were the people that melted down upon hearing the name of the guy that will build our new stadium (I melted down so hard that my wife has it in her calendar to make fun of me on every anniversary of that draft night) 

Edited May 8, 2023 by Randall Flagg

[Eleven]

4 minutes ago, K-9 said:

Regarding Allen, the 60% completion rate narrative was as ignorant as it gets, but people bought it hook, line, and sinker at the time and so he became “wrong Josh” as a result. Story after story about how no QB with a comparable completion percentage ever made it. NONE of that mattered to the GMs and scouts because their deep dives into Allen enabled them go give EVERY play of his the proper context for evaluation. And when I say every play of his, I mean EVERY play. Broken down several times. With input from his college coaches to boot. 

60% is an arbitrary number anyway. A completely made up benchmark. Hell, it took John Elway, the highest rated prospect in history, 10 seasons before he achieved that bullcrap milestone. 😂

This part isn't me.

 

4 minutes ago, K-9 said:

The pundits and draftniks just don’t have the time and resources necessary, simple as that. 

This part is.  They have more time and resources than I do, that's for sure.

[Randall Flagg]

We were way too smug and obnoxious in opposing Allen to be let off with shrugged shoulders and a "hey it was a tiny chance but it happened" 

[K-9]

Just now, Eleven said:

This part isn't me.

 

This part is.  They have more time and resources than I do, that's for sure.

Yeah, I know that. I threw that in to further my point about how GMs and scouts ignored the “60%” crap because they were able to do a deep dive analysis on every pass he threw. While you may not be one of those who incessantly cited that talking head narrative at the time, it was that one stat alone that convinced the draftnik followers to crown him “Wrong Josh.” 
 

They may have more time than you, but nothing close to the time and resources necessary to properly vet a QB prospect, which have always been the most difficult prospects to evaluate. But if you enjoy their content, that’s great. It’s often insightful and fun to read. 

[MattPie]

45 minutes ago, Taro T said:

Those that can, do.  Those that can't, teach.  Those that can't do that, report.  And those that can't even do that become "journalists."

I hate this saying with a passion. It perfectly sums up the American hatred of education and the resulting idiocy we seen daily.

[Scottysabres]

The Bills are way over due for a true impact receiving TE, I see this kid as that player.

The Bills are Super Bowl bound this up and coming season. There will be no stopping them. So let it be written, So let it be done!!!

[K-9]

15 minutes ago, MattPie said:

I hate this saying with a passion. It perfectly sums up the American hatred of education and the resulting idiocy we seen daily.

Yep. It’s always been an ignorant, empty saying. Those who CAN see the value in teaching others so they CAN, too.

[JohnC]

3 hours ago, K-9 said:

The moral of the Josh Allen story is don’t take the word of talking head pundits, draftniks, and analytic geeks who can’t see beyond raw numbers. They simply don’t possess the insight and context necessary to make predictions before a prospect has even played a down in the league.

The old axiom usually holds true: you can’t fairly judge a QB prospect until he has 1,000 snaps under his belt. You may see glimpses of a bust, glimpses of greatness, and glimpses of everything in between as those snaps accumulate in the meantime. 

One draft analyst who had Josh Allen rated as his top qb was Mel Kiper. He stuck by Allen throughout much of the ranking process. Mel K also was one of the draft analysts who rated Wil Levis very highly. It will be interesting to see how his pro career turns out. 

[That Aud Smell]

14 minutes ago, JohnC said:

One draft analyst who had Josh Allen rated as his top qb was Mel Kiper. He stuck by Allen throughout much of the ranking process. Mel K also was one of the draft analysts who rated Wil Levis very highly. It will be interesting to see how his pro career turns out. 

Mel also promised to retire if … was it Jimmy Clausen (?) failed to turn into a good NFL starter with a long career.

[JohnC]

13 minutes ago, That Aud Smell said:

Mel also promised to retire if … was it Jimmy Clausen (?) failed to turn into a good NFL starter with a long career.

No draft analyst is going to be always right on the challenge of projecting how a college player will do well in the pros. The Clausen draft was 13 years ago. He was stunningly wrong on that pick. On the Josh Allen pick he was stunningly right while many analysts thought that Allen was simply too inaccurate of a passer to succeed in the NFL. Will he be right in his assessment of Levis? I have no clue. 

[JohnC]

Josh Allen can throw the long ball and also hit the long ball. He won the home run contest in this charity evident. (Use a Google Chrome browser to bring up this link.)

https://buffalonews.com/sports/bills/josh-allen-micah-hyde-charity-softball-game-sahlen-field/article_ef39ee32-ed10-11ed-9171-e7d100bdb407.html#tracking-source=mp-homepage

[That Aud Smell]

15 hours ago, JohnC said:

No draft analyst is going to be always right on the challenge of projecting how a college player will do well in the pros. The Clausen draft was 13 years ago. He was stunningly wrong on that pick. On the Josh Allen pick he was stunningly right while many analysts thought that Allen was simply too inaccurate of a passer to succeed in the NFL. Will he be right in his assessment of Levis? I have no clue. 

Almost as if -- their wealth of knowledge and analysis notwithstanding -- it's a coin flip.

Are their sites out there that have aggregated and graded Kiper's (or other leading experts') hit rate for the top, top tier of prospects?

[JohnC]

1 minute ago, That Aud Smell said:

Almost as if -- their wealth of knowledge and analysis notwithstanding -- it's a coin flip.

Are their sites out there that have aggregated and graded Kiper's (or other leading experts') hit rate for the top, top tier of prospects?

I can't answer your question about sites that grade the draft experts. I just don't know. However, prior to the draft I heard on a couple of shows the claim that maybe 40% or less of the first round drafted qbs work out. It's a tough and humbling job to evaluate players at all positions, but especially for the qb position it is much tougher task. 

[carpandean]

4 hours ago, JohnC said:

I can't answer your question about sites that grade the draft experts. I just don't know. However, prior to the draft I heard on a couple of shows the claim that maybe 40% or less of the first round drafted qbs work out. It's a tough and humbling job to evaluate players at all positions, but especially for the qb position it is much tougher task. 

And what percentage of first-round QBs are drafted into bad situation, taken too high because "we have to have a quarterback" or both?  Bad teams tend to pick earlier.  Some may be bad just because they're missing a good quarterback, but many are where they belong because of how they're run.  A (potentially) good QB can be ruined by a bad situation.

[Buffalonill]

21 hours ago, Scottysabres said:

The Bills are way over due for a true impact receiving TE, I see this kid as that player.

The Bills are Super Bowl bound this up and coming season. There will be no stopping them. So let it be written, So let it be done!!!

You guys need a vet number 2 WR still imo 

[JohnC]

18 minutes ago, carpandean said:

And what percentage of first-round QBs are drafted into bad situation, taken too high because "we have to have a quarterback" or both?  Bad teams tend to pick earlier.  Some may be bad just because they're missing a good quarterback, but many are where they belong because of how they're run.  A (potentially) good QB can be ruined by a bad situation.

It's just not qbs that struggle because they get drafted into bad situations. Poorly managed organizations create hurdles for players in all the positions. Look how bad the Bills were prior the McDermott/Beane era? There is no question that a highly rated qb prospect is going to have more challenges on a bad team than a more talented team. But there are still ways to smartly manage that situation. For one, don't play the young qb right away. And if you are going to play him as soon as possible it is better to provide him with an adequate OL and good coaching support to help the qb have a better chance to succeed.