Buffalo Bills 2023 Thread

[Ogre]

2 hours ago, nfreeman said:

BTW, the WR the Bills drafted looks reasonably fit:

 

 

Holy mackerel.

I’d like the photo to show the part of the WR that I care about most. For all I know he could have frying pans for hands.

 

JC, I hope this guy is good.

[K-9]

3 hours ago, Ogre said:

I’d like the photo to show the part of the WR that I care about most. For all I know he could have frying pans for hands.

 

JC, I hope this guy is good.

We might wanna temper expectations. He was a 5th rounder for a reason. For all his positive physical traits, he isn’t an elite athlete and had a problem with drops in college. Some scouts think he should lose a few pounds, too. Not because he’s got a weight control issue, but because it may improve his athleticism. Intriguing prospect none the less. 

[Eleven]

6 hours ago, Randall Flagg said:

Hopefully he's smart enough to time his cycles right lol

First thing I thought.  That can't be natural.

[Eleven]

10 hours ago, sabremike said:

 

This may be the worst video ever made.  The first 9:12 is setup, and it's only a 16 minute long clip.  The payoff for the setup is insufficient.  And the narrator sounds like prepubescent Anthony Michael Hall.  It is, however, factual.

Edited May 5, 2023 by Eleven

[shrader]

11 hours ago, Eleven said:

First thing I thought.  That can't be natural.

It's a crazy filter on a phone combined with a well timed flex.

[Randall Flagg]

10 minutes ago, shrader said:

It's a crazy filter on a phone combined with a well timed flex.

His trap/deltoid development combined with such a low bf% at that size are tell-tale 

All NFL players (outside of kickers/QBs) use that stuff, but some of them use like bodybuilders

Looking again, he even has the papery skin lol

Edited May 5, 2023 by Randall Flagg

[shrader]

1 minute ago, Randall Flagg said:

His trap/deltoid development combined with such a low bf% at that size are tell-tale 

All NFL players (outside of kickers/QBs) use that stuff, but some of them use like bodybuilders

Yeah, I'm not trying to suggest he's not ripped or taking god knows what.  It's just that the picture itself is also not natural.

[Randall Flagg]

2 minutes ago, shrader said:

Yeah, I'm not trying to suggest he's not ripped or taking god knows what.  It's just that the picture itself is also not natural.

True

I also don't mean my comments to suggest that any schlub can look like that with some steroids, he obviously has incredible physique genes and spent countless hours toiling away to build it 

[That Aud Smell]

The 5th round workout warrior is a fun prospect to think about. It's sort of a variation on the approach they took with Allen -- take a big swing for the fences and hope that the upside and attitude pays off. (As to attitude, he's got the inevitable chip on his shoulder.)

[Claude Balls]

Looks like that DK Metcalf pic the year he was drafted. 

[K-9]

16 minutes ago, That Aud Smell said:

The 5th round workout warrior is a fun prospect to think about. It's sort of a variation on the approach they took with Allen -- take a big swing for the fences and hope that the upside and attitude pays off. (As to attitude, he's got the inevitable chip on his shoulder.)

Allen wasn't a big swing for the fences at all. He was always considered a top 10 pick in the draft by league scouts and other evaluators. He had considered coming out early the year before as some had him projected to be the first QB selected. 

[That Aud Smell]

4 hours ago, K-9 said:

Allen wasn't a big swing for the fences at all. He was always considered a top 10 pick in the draft by league scouts and other evaluators. He had considered coming out early the year before as some had him projected to be the first QB selected. 

As I recall, he was a boom/bust prospect. Could be a home run. Could be an embarrassing strikeout.

[Randall Flagg]

13 minutes ago, That Aud Smell said:

As I recall, he was a boom/bust prospect. Could be a home run. Could be an embarrassing strikeout.

The Bills outsmarted basically all regular humans and the entirety of math itself

[K-9]

30 minutes ago, That Aud Smell said:

As I recall, he was a boom/bust prospect. Could be a home run. Could be an embarrassing strikeout.

Allen was never considered anything less than a blue chip prospect by those who get paid to make those evaluations for the teams around the league. Indeed, he may have been the first overall pick in the draft had he come out in 2017.

The narrative that he was boom or bust didn’t take off until after his last college season and it was fomented by talking head pundits who cited his completion percentage as the reason he was such a risk and once they settled on that narrative, they weren’t capable of backing off that position. Even today, there are those talking heads that are intractable on the subject.

I think that narrative has been accepted by many fans which is why they think he was a swing for the fences in retrospect. But again, that was never the position taken by those in the league that make personnel decisions. His physical traits and aptitude for the game as it pertained to his interviews, white board breakdowns, and play analysis were off the charts. Several coaches, Daboll included, said they’d never seen anyone like that previously. 

[shrader]

2 hours ago, That Aud Smell said:

As I recall, he was a boom/bust prospect. Could be a home run. Could be an embarrassing strikeout.

I feel like this description fits more than half of the first round QBs. He’ll, Allen’s draft looks like it’s 2:3 in booms:busts. 
 

And wow, I just looked up that draft and I didn’t realize that Jackson was the last pick of the first round. For whatever reason, I thought he was somewhere around 20. 

[Taro T]

4 hours ago, K-9 said:

Allen was never considered anything less than a blue chip prospect by those who get paid to make those evaluations for the teams around the league. Indeed, he may have been the first overall pick in the draft had he come out in 2017.

The narrative that he was boom or bust didn’t take off until after his last college season and it was fomented by talking head pundits who cited his completion percentage as the reason he was such a risk and once they settled on that narrative, they weren’t capable of backing off that position. Even today, there are those talking heads that are intractable on the subject.

I think that narrative has been accepted by many fans which is why they think he was a swing for the fences in retrospect. But again, that was never the position taken by those in the league that make personnel decisions. His physical traits and aptitude for the game as it pertained to his interviews, white board breakdowns, and play analysis were off the charts. Several coaches, Daboll included, said they’d never seen anyone like that previously. 

IMHO, the issue with Allen getting drafted by the Bills is the kid was VERY raw (supremely skilled and prototypical size and arm strength) and Buffalo had NO, None, Zip, Nada track record developing QBs.  McDermott was known for his defense and Daboll was a question too as to whether he was a product of the Cheatriots and Bama's talent.

Had he been drafted by an offensive guru like KC's Reid, would absolutely have expected him to become a great QB.  But that's not the team that Allen went to.  Allen went to one where Tyrod Taylor was their best QB in the previous 15 years.  It wasn't just that Allen was unpolished but he was unpolished and heading to a team that was known for being a Lions/ Jest class joke.

[K-9]

58 minutes ago, Taro T said:

IMHO, the issue with Allen getting drafted by the Bills is the kid was VERY raw (supremely skilled and prototypical size and arm strength) and Buffalo had NO, None, Zip, Nada track record developing QBs.  McDermott was known for his defense and Daboll was a question too as to whether he was a product of the Cheatriots and Bama's talent.

Had he been drafted by an offensive guru like KC's Reid, would absolutely have expected him to become a great QB.  But that's not the team that Allen went to.  Allen went to one where Tyrod Taylor was their best QB in the previous 15 years.  It wasn't just that Allen was unpolished but he was unpolished and heading to a team that was known for being a Lions/ Jest class joke.

I’ll say it one last time and then let it go: “unpolished” or not, the NFL GM and scouting community rated him a can’t miss prospect. All opinions to the contrary were based on a sub 60% completion rate in college and put forth by talking heads who had little other pertinent information to go on. He was never gonna fall out of a top 10 draft position. And that status was in spite of his lack of experience and polish at the position. As for that prototypical size and arm strength, while certainly an advantage, they weren’t what the personnel gurus were most impressed by, either. Rather it was his demonstrated aptitude for the position during his week at the Senior Bowl and subsequent interviews with teams during the draft process that convinced NFL gurus he was the real deal. Like I said earlier, Daboll said he never saw anyone like him before. I also heard that from staffs with the Falcons, Jaguars, and Chargers as well. 

Anyway, it’s all water under the bridge as the GMs and scouts were proven correct in their assessment. Those talking head pundits who cited poor completion percentage in college and predicted him to be a bust? Not so much.

[That Aud Smell]

8 hours ago, K-9 said:

the NFL GM and scouting community rated him a can’t miss prospect.

I feel like this is demonstrably false. Were that the case - given his baseline physical traits (bonkers) - he would have gone 1.1.

Anyway, I hope the kid from Florida works out.

EDIT: From the Walter Football draft profile (I’ll take a pass on digging more because, presumably, Walter’s legitimacy will be questioned):

 

In speaking with a few team sources, I said to them that Allen is more of a skill set than a quarterback at this point of his development, which they agreed with. They also thought my analogy of him being like a young pitcher called up to the big leagues who is more of a hard thrower than a pitcher was accurate. 

Some team sources who are skeptical of Allen compare him to Kyle Boller as a quarterback with big-time triangle numbers plus athleticism and major arm strength. They do have concerns about the lack of production against good opponents and not delivering clutch performances against better teams. Not every evaluator in the NFL is buying the excuse of a poor supporting cast, and they think that there is some danger to Allen as a prospect. 

Edited May 6, 2023 by That Aud Smell

[Flashsabre]

All I remember is tons of online fans declaring that they were done with the Bills forever if they took Josh Allen over Josh Rosen.😂

[inkman]

1 hour ago, Flashsabre said:

All I remember is tons of online fans declaring that they were done with the Bills forever if they took Josh Allen over Josh Rosen.😂

I don’t blame a single fan for feeling that way.  The draft is a crapshoot.  

[Buffalonill]

1 hour ago, Flashsabre said:

All I remember is tons of online fans declaring that they were done with the Bills forever if they took Josh Allen over Josh Rosen.😂

I didn't realize how much buffalo fans  hated josh allen yikes.

 

[K-9]

2 hours ago, That Aud Smell said:

I feel like this is demonstrably false. Were that the case - given his baseline physical traits (bonkers) - he would have gone 1.1.

Anyway, I hope the kid from Florida works out.

EDIT: From the Walter Football draft profile (I’ll take a pass on digging more because, presumably, Walter’s legitimacy will be questioned):

 

In speaking with a few team sources, I said to them that Allen is more of a skill set than a quarterback at this point of his development, which they agreed with. They also thought my analogy of him being like a young pitcher called up to the big leagues who is more of a hard thrower than a pitcher was accurate. 

Some team sources who are skeptical of Allen compare him to Kyle Boller as a quarterback with big-time triangle numbers plus athleticism and major arm strength. They do have concerns about the lack of production against good opponents and not delivering clutch performances against better teams. Not every evaluator in the NFL is buying the excuse of a poor supporting cast, and they think that there is some danger to Allen as a prospect. 

Believe what you will, I really don’t care at this point. But the “would have gone 1.1” logic is flawed as Allen wasn’t the only QB prospect in the draft considered a can’t miss prospect. I never said the GMs and scouts I spoke to rated him the the best QB prospect nor did they say he was flawless. I merely pointed out he wasn’t considered the “swing for the fences” pick you claimed he was as he cemented himself as a top 10 prospect after his 2016 college season and that never changed.

As for the Walter Football report, they were right about the concern over Allen’s lack of experience at the position. He didn’t attend elite QB camps since middle school like most top prospects, nor did he have anywhere near the experience playing the position. He was more than raw in that regard. But he satisfied those concerns because he demonstrated off the charts aptitude for the position during the draft process, not only as it relates to schematics but also leadership and personality traits. Like I mentioned earlier, Daboll said he’d never seen anyone like him. 

The only “demonstrably false” aspects regarding Josh Allen as a prospect, are the uninformed takes by the talking head pundits who predicted his failure. 

[Taro T]

23 hours ago, K-9 said:

I’ll say it one last time and then let it go: “unpolished” or not, the NFL GM and scouting community rated him a can’t miss prospect. All opinions to the contrary were based on a sub 60% completion rate in college and put forth by talking heads who had little other pertinent information to go on. He was never gonna fall out of a top 10 draft position. And that status was in spite of his lack of experience and polish at the position. As for that prototypical size and arm strength, while certainly an advantage, they weren’t what the personnel gurus were most impressed by, either. Rather it was his demonstrated aptitude for the position during his week at the Senior Bowl and subsequent interviews with teams during the draft process that convinced NFL gurus he was the real deal. Like I said earlier, Daboll said he never saw anyone like him before. I also heard that from staffs with the Falcons, Jaguars, and Chargers as well. 

Anyway, it’s all water under the bridge as the GMs and scouts were proven correct in their assessment. Those talking head pundits who cited poor completion percentage in college and predicted him to be a bust? Not so much.

Never said he was going to go later than the top 10.  Said the only issue with his being unpolished is he went to a team known for being a QB wasteland for nearly 2 full decades.  As you said, there were other "can't miss prospects" in that draft and yet only 2 of them out of 5 didn't.  And 1 of the 2 that didn't miss barely stayed in the 1st round.

Josh Allen absolutely could've been derailed had he gone 3rd overall as the Jest are even better at ruining prospects and picking the wrong ones than the Bills were for the 1st 16 years of the 21st century.  Maybe going 1st overall would've been a killer too.  The team that most rivals the NY Jest for Jetsiness is the Cleveland Browns.

[GASabresIUFAN]

15 hours ago, Buffalonill said:

I didn't realize how much buffalo fans  hated josh allen yikes.

 

 

[K-9]

9 hours ago, Taro T said:

Never said he was going to go later than the top 10.  Said the only issue with his being unpolished is he went to a team known for being a QB wasteland for nearly 2 full decades.  As you said, there were other "can't miss prospects" in that draft and yet only 2 of them out of 5 didn't.  And 1 of the 2 that didn't miss barely stayed in the 1st round.

Josh Allen absolutely could've been derailed had he gone 3rd overall as the Jest are even better at ruining prospects and picking the wrong ones than the Bills were for the 1st 16 years of the 21st century.  Maybe going 1st overall would've been a killer too.  The team that most rivals the NY Jest for Jetsiness is the Cleveland Browns.

I don’t disagree with anything here, but I’m not sure what it has to do with the point I was refuting, which was that Josh Allen was a “swing for the fences” draft pick when the NFL community never considered him as such. Highly rated prospects, which he was, just don’t qualify as that type of draft selection.

Your point about what teams players go to is an important one. There are countless examples of good prospects going to teams that end up ruining them. If Mahomes went to the Jets or Browns he wouldn’t be sitting with two SB rings.