When does a draft pick, prospect, player have the highest trade value?

[Digger]

With the trade deadline coming and talk of potential trades it started me thinking about when a pick, prospect or player reaches their highest value.  We have drafted lots of talent and some of those players or prospects will eventually be traded for other needs.  The picks, prospects, and players that have yet to reach their potential are investments for the team.  Some will eventually take spots on the roster to keep salaries reasonable (below the Cap), some will be traded, some will not reach their potential.

When I hear what Arizona wants for Chychrun, I would say he’s at his highest value since he was drafted.  So he’s worth more today than the original draft pick (he’s grown as an investment for Arizona to what he’s worth on the trade market).

I summarized the Sabre players in the PDF attachment for draft years +1, +2, +3, +4.  Not as a comparison but it helps to remember the highs and lows of their development.

Started with 2016 (with our Nylander pick).Sabre Draft Picks Value.pdf

It’s interesting to consider when the pick or the player reaches their highest value.  Obviously draft year, draft spot play a role, as well as the player’s development (some players take more time), (injuries can slow development), (opportunity – room on the roster), etc.

·         Nylander was a pick that we eventually turned into Jokiharju.  The highest value was most likely the #8 pick itself before the player was taken.

·         I would argue that Mittelstadt’s trade value was highest after his D1 (draft +1) season.  So his value peaked and has come down.   

·         Dahlin, Samuelson, Cozens are all more valuable today than where they were picked as they continue to improve towards their peak years. 

·         Krebs trade value peaked after his D2 season.  He’s still a great young player and I’m not suggesting dumping him in a trade but I do question if he will reach the level that was predicted for him.

·         Johnson’s trade value peaked after his D3 season.  He hasn’t signed with the Sabres (yet) but his value has now dropped because of that.

·         Quinn, Peterka, Power, trade value has improved and is still rising.

·         Östlund, Kulich’s trade value has improved since their draft position.

·         Savoie’s trade value may be the same as where he was drafted last season (8OA).

·         2023 draft pick (position still to be determined).  How does the value of this pick compare to the players above?

·         To me a player that has been drafted and is further along in his development provides more certainty (and value) for a GM in a trade than a 1st round pick (where the draft position is still to be determined by the standings and playoff results – unless you think the team will crash and burn and the pick will be a top 10 pick).

[GASabresIUFAN]

The first thing they teach you in law school is that the answer to all questions is “it depends.”  

It depends on the strength of the draft, the pick no, the quality of the player once drafted, how that player develops, the players contract status etc…..

For example take former Sabres 6th rd pick Brandon Hagel.  In his D+1 season his production back tracked and although offered a contract he didn’t sign and went back into the draft.  He wasn’t drafted.  In his 20 year old season he scored 102 pts and was given a 3 year ELC from the Blackhawks.  He was ok in his AHL season with 31 pts in 59 games.  Did Ok in the NHL with 24 pts in 52 games the next year.  Then suddenly he breakouts and posts 21 goal for the Hawks in 55 games last year before being traded to TB for two 1st rd picks.  He has 46 pts in 52 games this season. 

Chicago had resigned him after his 1st NHL season for 3 years @ 1.5 per season.

So what were his trade values along the way? Zero for much of his development and then suddenly, given his contract and production, 2 1st rd picks.

What is TnT’s value now? What was it after last season with another year on his cheap deal?

As to Johnson and Mitts, Johnson is worth at least a 2nd (our compensation is he doesn’t sign) and Mitts has move value than you think.  Guys who have cost control and decent production are worth a considerable amount. 

[Digger]

Yes I agree that each player is an individual case.  With any investment you want to sell high.  Not all our top prospects will play for the Sabres.  Some will and some will fill key future roles.  Each year after they are drafted you get a better picture of the player they will become.  So when we consider a trade for say Chychrun, are we trading a top line winger in Rosen or a third liner or a career AHL player?

I'm sure that the team is constantly evaluating.

I think as fans we get into loving prospects for where they were drafted and the potential at the time and not wanting to trade a prospect until we know they won't work out (but by then value has dropped).

[Sabres Fan in NS]

Just before the draft.