The Jeff Skinner Contract - Revisited

[LGR4GM]

You ever think about the fact that Jeff Skinner in 47 games this season has 20g and 50pts but in the 112 games under Roldemort (ik some of those were under Donny) he only had 21g and 53pts? Would we view his contract differently if Roldemort had never been? Should we view his contract as, not good, but at least of approximate value now? 

[tom webster]

The Skinner contract will not look bad as time goes by.

Whats more, for the next three years, barring injuries, Buffalo will have its top 4 forwards locked up for a cap hit below $28M and for the next two years, forwards 5 and 6 are on entry level deals. Good times!

[mjd1001]

IThe last couple years have been ok but it still is a 'somewhat bad' contract..  If he cotinues to produce at close to his current level (maybe a slight drop off) then his deal will fall under the 'not good' category, but not awful. 

The good thing is for the moment, you can justify it as being "good" if you try hard enough. You can say he is a top producer on this team, he fits into the locker room, and the Sabres have ZERO cap issues even with his contract.  Basically, the team is better with him on it than without him...so his contract causes no problems currently and you are getting a player that produces and helps you win.

[RochesterExpat]

If the salary cap went up as expected instead of the COVID-induced flat cap--and He-Who-Shall-Not-Be-Named never happened--I think we'd say Skinner's contract was fair enough no one would give it any mind.

[LabattBlue]

Skinner never was nor will he ever be a 9 mil hockey player.  Yes, he has made the number look better based on his play this year, but still a ridiculous contract that Botts and Pegula agreed to….and just because the cap goes up as the years go by, it doesn’t make it any better.   He is overpaid by at least 2 mil per year. 

[oddoublee]

That is a great question. As of now, he is the 32nd highest paid player in the league (annually). If we just look at his last two years, he is 46th in goals scored, and 37th in total points this year. 

Last year, he was 34th in goals scored, and 70th in total points. 

We could say he is a top 50 point producer...top 40 goal producer in the league.

His corsi the last two years is quite impressive. He is a well liked, and good teammate. He is a bit pesty on the ice. 

9 million...probably not. 7.5 million...feels more like it. 

So I would argue he is overpaid - but not to the degree that it hurts the franchise - or requires all of us to gather our pitchforks. 

[matter2003]

45 minutes ago, LabattBlue said:

Skinner never was nor will he ever be a 9 mil hockey player.  Yes, he has made the number look better based on his play this year, but still a ridiculous contract that Botts and Pegula agreed to….and just because the cap goes up as the years go by, it doesn’t make it any better.   He is overpaid by at least 2 mil per year. 

Maybe but with the cap numbers for Mule, TNT and likely Cozens being super bargains before too long it will more than make up for that.

Those 3 will be underpaid by probably 8-10 million a year or more and every year that will increase as the cap goes up.

Edited February 9, 2023 by matter2003

[GASabresIUFAN]

Skinner and Thompson are clear examples of coaching and system matter.  

Jbot brought Skinner in to be the goal scorer on the top line.  He envisioned a long-term Eichel/Skinner pairing where Jack feeds Skinner and Skinner pots 40 a year.  While that vision worked under Housley, it was kneecapped under RK.  Now under DG that vision has returned in an altered form with TNT, Tuch, and Skinner all working together as a unit.  DG’s system has forced Skinner to improve his passing and he has.   I will say that having Rasputin for a season plus has made Skinner more defensively aware. 

Had Jbot initial vision come to fruition no one would have complained about the deal.   I think if we look back on this site, I think most people here were happy Jbot re-signed him.  

It bodes well for the remaining years of the contract that Skinner at age 30 is having his best season.  Strange fact about Skinner is that his career high in points is 63 and he has done it 4 times including his first NHL season, his first season in Buffalo and his first season under DG.  Now he has 50 pts in just 47 games and it’s the first time in his career that he has significantly more assists than goals.  He has 30 assists ytd.  His career high is 32.  This is Skinner’s 10th season of 20 or more goals, and will be his 6th 30+ goal season if he can add 10 more this season.

Edited February 9, 2023 by GASabresIUFAN

[NAF]

He's overpaid by about 2 million and 8 years was way too much term (though I guess they kinda had to it to him), but most UFAs underperform their deals. I think if he can continue to produce into the latter years of the deal it's a fine-meh contract. Most teams have at least one ***** contract. I will also add that I think Skinner will continue to be effective as he gets older -- his game isn't about footspeed but rather his edgework around the net.

[Taro T]

If the deal were $7.5/yr nobody would bat an eye.

The thing is, because the Sabres are so young and accordingly being paid so little on a per player basis, his being overpaid by $1.5/yr actually let Adams get away w/ only buying one BF-LTIR player contract.  If he were paid what he should be paid, they'd've needed another contract to reach & stay comfortably above the cap floor.

[LabattBlue]

Are the Sabres going to start spending to the cap starting next season? If not, then yeah, that extra $2 mil they are overpaying Skinner, could have been more wisely spent. 

[shrader]

38 minutes ago, oddoublee said:

That is a great question. As of now, he is the 32nd highest paid player in the league (annually). If we just look at his last two years, he is 46th in goals scored, and 37th in total points this year. 

Last year, he was 34th in goals scored, and 70th in total points. 

We could say he is a top 50 point producer...top 40 goal producer in the league.

His corsi the last two years is quite impressive. He is a well liked, and good teammate. He is a bit pesty on the ice. 

9 million...probably not. 7.5 million...feels more like it. 

So I would argue he is overpaid - but not to the degree that it hurts the franchise - or requires all of us to gather our pitchforks. 

It's certainly not the "worst contract in the league" like some may have wanted to say a few years back.  I remember one game where someone on the opposing team was caught on camera taunting him, something along the lines of "how'd you get all that money"*.  I doubt that happens anymore.  Overpaid?  Sure.  But there's far worse out there.

One thing people need to keep in mind when looking at these rankings you spelled out is that goalies and defensemen will be in those money rankings, but obviously aren't judged by those same point rankings.

 

* By the way, how is that a taunt anyway?  I'd love it if I was getting paid way more than I was worth.

[Taro T]

5 minutes ago, LabattBlue said:

Are the Sabres going to start spending to the cap starting next season? If not, then yeah, that extra $2 mil they are overpaying Skinner, could have been more wisely spent. 

His contract doesn't affect things next year and likely doesn't affect them the next year either.

His final 2 years could make things a little tight but Adams shouldn't have too much difficulty working around it, and nearly 1/2 of his overpay effectively goes away at the end of this season as Hodgson is off the books this April.

[LabattBlue]

Just now, Taro T said:

His contract doesn't affect things next year and likely doesn't affect them the next year either.

His final 2 years could make things a little tight but Adams shouldn't have too much difficulty working around it, and nearly 1/2 of his overpay effectively goes away at the end of this season as Hodgson is off the books this April.

Not sure how you can say that without knowing how high the Sabres will spend against the cap.   If that stops them from acquiring a 3rd pairing dman who is an upgrade from Bryson or Clague, then yes, that Skinner overpay is a problem. 

[Taro T]

11 minutes ago, LabattBlue said:

Not sure how you can say that without knowing how high the Sabres will spend against the cap.   If that stops them from acquiring a 3rd pairing dman who is an upgrade from Bryson or Clague, then yes, that Skinner overpay is a problem. 

You think his contract will cause ANY problems in the next 2 seasons?

Not a chance.

Quinn & Peterka will still be on their ELCs & the cap will be at least $4MM higher with Hodgson's deal finally off the books this year.  Okposo will be gone or making a fraction of what he does.

Now, the last 2 years of the deal, some hard decisions might need to be made.  But still don't expect they'll have to pass on somebody they wanted because of not having an extra $1.5MM in cap space.

[LabattBlue]

1 minute ago, Taro T said:

You think his contract will cause ANY problems in the next 2 seasons?

Not a chance.

Quinn & Peterka will still be on their ELCs & the cap will be at least $4MM higher with Hodgson's deal finally off the books this year.  Okposo will be gone or making a fraction of what he does.

Now, the last 2 years of the deal, some hard decisions might need to be made.  But still don't expect they'll have to pass on somebody they wanted because of not having an extra $1.5MM in cap space.

I guess let’s wait and see what they do in terms of the roster in the offseason. 

[Doohicksie]

1 hour ago, oddoublee said:

He is a well liked, and good teammate. He is a bit pesty on the ice.

I would say that of all the Sabres, Jeff is the most clearly happy of them all.  Every interview, even when the game didn't go well, he just has this contented calm about him.  I don't mean he's complacent because the effort is there (it was there even when RFK put him on the fourth line).  I think he does the best he can and his conscience is clear.  He's happy.  And it's the kind of happiness that rubs off on his teammates.

[Sabres Fan in NS]

I am in the minority here and maybe the only one, but I think that Jeff is worth every penny of his contract.

In the coming years assuming all goes well it will be a bargain.  What is the going rate for 30 to 40 goal scoring 65+ point first line winger in the NHL ... it's Jeff's contract.  And that will only be going up.

[JohnC]

26 minutes ago, Sabres Fan in NS said:

I am in the minority here and maybe the only one, but I think that Jeff is worth every penny of his contract.

In the coming years assuming all goes well it will be a bargain.  What is the going rate for 30 to 40 goal scoring 65+ point first line winger in the NHL ... it's Jeff's contract.  And that will only be going up.

I agree with you. Skinner is on one of the better first lines in the league. If someone wants to argue that he is a little overpaid, maybe a $7.5 million to $8 million player would be more fitting, I won't quibble with one's position. But a consistent 30 to 40 goal scorer is a valuable commodity. There is another aspect to his game and contribution that also needs to be factored in when computing his value.: He's a good teammate on and off the ice. And his emerging passing skills and grit on the ice shouldn't be dismissed when considering his value. 

Krueger took a valuable commodity and made it valueless. Granato took over and restored his value. Coaching matters!

[RochesterExpat]

2 hours ago, Taro T said:

If the deal were $7.5/yr nobody would bat an eye.

 

If we didn't have a flat cap this is what the cap hit % would look like already.

Just saying.

[Taro T]

11 minutes ago, RochesterExpat said:

If we didn't have a flat cap this is what the cap hit % would look like already.

Just saying.

It would look better, yes.

Percentage of capwise it'd probably be about 1/2 way between the $7.5 he should've got & the $9 he did get.  (Assuming the cap went up 2% each of the past 3 years.)  The $9 is ~11% of the cap and $7.5 would be ~9%.  The $9 w/ a typical appreciation would be ~10% today.

Either way, it won't limit Adams next year nor the following one.  It MAY be restrictive after Frick & Frack earn their big deals those last 2 years of Skinner's current deal.  But am expecting it to not be terribly restrictive.

[triumph_communes]

Awful contract always was. But the GM was hand tied at the time and if he let Skinner go he was a goner. One of those bad signings GMs will make to save their neck. 
 

Skinner is just one of those guys who will contribute to a winner, but is a lightning rod for blame when things go sour. And rightfully so, his unique play style is just difficult to mesh with. 
 

I was hoping he could make a third line out of nothing but he never did.

Edited February 9, 2023 by triumph_communes

[JohnC]

58 minutes ago, triumph_communes said:

Awful contract always was. But the GM was hand tied at the time and if he let Skinner go he was a goner. One of those bad signings GMs will make to save their neck. 
 

Skinner is just one of those guys who will contribute to a winner, but is a lightning rod for blame when things go sour. And rightfully so, his unique play style is just difficult to mesh with. 
 

I was hoping he could make a third line out of nothing but he never did.

His unique style of play is certainly working well with his linemates. The Sabres have one of the most productive top lines in the league. If that isn't meshing with his linemates then I don't know what meshing means. 

Skinner is certainly contributing to the Sabres's winning. Just check out the team's record. That is nothing to be dismissive about; it's something to celebrate. 

Why would you want to put Skinner on the third line or help to elevate a lower line? Isn't it better and more productive to be a contributing first line player? 

[Skibum]

It's not a good contract at all. It's already a bad deal by virtue of his performance through most of the first three years of it.

I think it's still bad now that he's scoring, because (a) his lack of reach and physical presence limit him, and (b) it seems that he is only as good as the players he's playing with, to a higher degree than most guys making $9M. I think his contribution falls off a lot if when he's not on a really hot line. That's a liability if his linemates miss any time. 

Edited February 9, 2023 by Skibum

[triumph_communes]

22 minutes ago, JohnC said:

His unique style of play is certainly working well with his linemates. The Sabres have one of the most productive top lines in the league. If that isn't meshing with his linemates then I don't know what meshing means. 

Skinner is certainly contributing to the Sabres's winning. Just check out the team's record. That is nothing to be dismissive about; it's something to celebrate. 

Why would you want to put Skinner on the third line or help to elevate a lower line? Isn't it better and more productive to be a contributing first line player? 

Did you watch the recent 5 game slide?  He stuck out like a sore thumb. It wasn’t working.