The Dahlin Contract

[GASabresIUFAN]

Now that Cozens' deal is done, we probably need a place for the speculation on Norris candidate Rasmus Dahlin's next contract. 

It should be noted that Raz has another year on his current deal and therefore can't be extended until this off-season (July 1st I believe).  

Dahlin currently is

Second among NHL D with 55 points and second in goals with 14.  Only Erik Karlsson has more with 66 and 16.

Dahlin is 3rd in average PT at 26:07 per game (only behind Makar and Doughty) and 3rd in assists at 41 (behind Karlsson w 50 and Morrissey w 43).

Dahlin is also 3rd at EV points at 31 (Karlsson 49, Fox 32) and tied for 2nd at EV goals at 9 (Karlsson has 13).

Prior to this campaign Dahlin best season was last year with 53 pts (13 goals ) in 80 games.

 

 

Edited February 7, 2023 by GASabresIUFAN

[inkman]

I’d consider anything under $11 million a good deal.  Under $10 mill would be a real bargain.  Sounds weird saying that. 

[GASabresIUFAN]

18 minutes ago, inkman said:

I’d consider anything under $11 million a good deal.  Under $10 mill would be a real bargain.  Sounds weird saying that. 

I don't think it will come in under $10.  I'm hoping for 10 x 8.  

[thewookie1]

10 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

I don't think it will come in under $10.  I'm hoping for 10 x 8.  

8 x 9.99 🙂

[Taro T]

With how much the cap will be increasing over the life of the deal (the entire deal will be in post-shutdown cap recapture) and how Dahlin is showing signs that that generational label wasn't as crazy as it looked 2 years ago, $12/ x8 seems like the correct amount.

But Dahlin seems to really like it here & Adams has been straight up with the players & both seem to want to keep the band together, so expect him to sign for less.  Guessing $10.5-11/ for 7 years but am hoping they get him locked up for 8 years. 

[GoPuckYourself]

46 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

Now that Cozens' deal is done, we probably need a place for the speculation on Norris candidate Rasmus Dahlin's next contract. 

It should be noted that Raz has another year on his current deal and therefore can't be extended until this off-season (July 1st I believe).  

Dahlin currently is

Second among NHL D with 55 points and second in goals with 14.  Only Erik Karlsson has more with 66 and 16.

Dahlin is 3rd in average PT at 26:07 per game (only behind Makar and Doughty) and 3rd in assists at 41 (behind Karlsson w 50 and Morrissey w 43).

Dahlin is also 3rd at EV points at 31 (Karlsson 49, Fox 32) and tied for 2nd at EV goals at 9 (Karlsson has 13).

Prior to this campaign Dahlin best season was last year with 53 pts (13 goals ) in 80 games.

 

 

 

7.99M come on GMKA lets get er done, stick with the 7+M theme you got this.

[Thorner]

3 minutes ago, Taro T said:

With how much the cap will be increasing over the life of the deal (the entire deal will be in post-shutdown cap recapture) and how Dahlin is showing signs that that generational label wasn't as crazy as it looked 2 years ago, $12/ x8 seems like the correct amount.

But Dahlin seems to really like it here & Adams has been straight up with the players & both seem to want to keep the band together, so expect him to sign for less.  Guessing $10.5-11/ for 7 years but am hoping they get him locked up for 8 years. 

They should absolutely go 8

I’d be disappointed with 7

[msw2112]

47 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

Now that Cozens' deal is done, we probably need a place for the speculation on Norris candidate Rasmus Dahlin's next contract. 

It should be noted that Raz has another year on his current deal and therefore can't be extended until this off-season (July 1st I believe).  

Dahlin currently is

Second among NHL D with 55 points and second in goals with 14.  Only Erik Karlsson has more with 66 and 16.

Dahlin is 3rd in average PT at 26:07 per game (only behind Makar and Doughty) and 3rd in assists at 41 (behind Karlsson w 50 and Morrissey w 43).

Dahlin is also 3rd at EV points at 31 (Karlsson 49, Fox 32) and tied for 2nd at EV goals at 9 (Karlsson has 13).

Prior to this campaign Dahlin best season was last year with 53 pts (13 goals ) in 80 games.

 

 

Thanks for the info that is bolded and underlined above.  I said in the Cozens thread that they need to extend Dahlin ASAP.  I now amend that to say that they should extend him ASAP after July 1.

[Carmel Corn]

2 hours ago, Thorny said:

They should absolutely go 8

I’d be disappointed with 7

Agree....my hope is that Dahlin considers the $'s from TNT, Mule and now Cozens and is willing to follow their examples of "team friendly" deals.

[Thorner]

3 minutes ago, Carmel Corn said:

Agree....my hope is that Dahlin considers the $'s from TNT, Mule and now Cozens and is willing to follow their examples of "team friendly" deals.

Team friendly 9.5? I can see it but don’t think it likely 

Team friendly 7-7.5 like Tage? More confident than usual my brain is hardwired to some sort of matrix I’ve now somehow subconsciously developed the ability to control 

[elijah]

My guess independent of the Thompson & Cozens deals: 8x$11.5M

My optimistic hope with Thompson & Cozens deals in mind: 7x$9.75M

My middle ground with all context added: 8x$11M

[Thorner]

If Dahlin is sitting at about 10, I could see him going down to 9.75 purely because it negligibly changes what he makes in all reality yet the message it sends out to the fanbase ala “Wow! Insane underpay, vibes!” I don’t think can be denied by anyone reading the overall discussion. I’m actively shifting my stance because of this. 

People will ignore the substance and react extremely based on 250 thousand dollars for sure. Adams probably pushes strong for the oft @thewookie1mentioned ”9.99” million - it’s no different than 10, substantively, but it’s clearly being suggested for a reason and that reason is optics 

Edited February 8, 2023 by Thorny

[SHAAAUGHT!!!]

Team friendly deal: $85M ($10.65Mx8years)

My prediction: $92M ($11.5Mx8 years)

[tom webster]

Like I said previously, I expect it to be in the $11M range.

 

Also, while I expect Dahlin and Power to be the next big contracts, I would not be surprised to see Zemgus and Jost extended before seasons end.

[Digger]

I would love to see him signed for $10M x 8 but I'm not sure what to expect with this next contract for Dahlin.  Anywhere from $9M to $11M.

Wasn't there pressure by the Players Union when Doughty and Karlsson signed their deals in 2018 and 2019?  Maybe not official but at the end of the day I think they want to keep driving salaries higher and not go for the team friendly deals with the top stars in the league.  Maybe this isn't an influence for Dahlin but I do remember Doughty's comments from back at that time.

Thoughts?

Reference story:

https://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/drew-doughty-plans-ask-erik-karlsson-contract-negotiation-tactics/  

[GASabresIUFAN]

Fox signed lasted year coming off his ELC at 9.5 for 7 years.

Makar signed after the 20-21 season for 6 years at 9 per season.

After seeing those deals I’m think 10 for 7 years or 10.5 for 8.

Edited February 8, 2023 by GASabresIUFAN

[Thorner]

10 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

Fox signed lasted year coming off his ELC at 9.5 for 7 years.

Makar signed after the 20-21 season for 6 years at 9 per season.

After seeing those deals I’m think 10 for 7 years or 10.5 for 8.

Ya I mean Dahlin is as good as Fox. He’s signing off multiple bridges and Fox was off his ELC, *and* Dahlin is signing later. If he comes in at about the same 9.5 I can’t see how we deem that anything but a bargain. 

[nfreeman]

Also worth noting IMHO:  Dahlin turns...23 in April.

8 years on the extension, please.

[DarthEbriate]

The top 10 D scorers in the league this season, sorted by cap hit. https://www.capfriendly.com/browse/active/2023/caphit/all/defense?stats-season=2023&display=length&limits=points-40-130   The outliers are Montour (another Krueger casualty!) who broke out last season and allowed Florida to feel somewhat comfortable moving Weegar, will double his salary on his next contract if he keeps up this production, and Morrissey, who was a good all-around defender but had never broken 37 points in a season until this year.

Karlsson   $11.5
Fox            $9.5
Josi           $9.06
Makar        $9
Hamilton   $9
Heiskanen $8.45
Hughes     $7.85
Morrissey $6.25
Dahlin       $6
Montour   $3.5

Fox is probably the best all-around D on the list and his 9.5 should be the floor. If Dahlin is afraid of the curse of surpassing 10, maybe he goes $9.875M. But he will be playing 26+ mins/game for the duration of the contract and should be thinking $11 or more.

[Thorner]

3 minutes ago, DarthEbriate said:

The top 10 D scorers in the league this season, sorted by cap hit. https://www.capfriendly.com/browse/active/2023/caphit/all/defense?stats-season=2023&display=length&limits=points-40-130   The outliers are Montour (another Krueger casualty!) who broke out last season and allowed Florida to feel somewhat comfortable moving Weegar, will double his salary on his next contract if he keeps up this production, and Morrissey, who was a good all-around defender but had never broken 37 points in a season until this year.

Karlsson   $11.5
Fox            $9.5
Josi           $9.06
Makar        $9
Hamilton   $9
Heiskanen $8.45
Hughes     $7.85
Morrissey $6.25
Dahlin       $6
Montour   $3.5

Fox is probably the best all-around D on the list and his 9.5 should be the floor. If Dahlin is afraid of the curse of surpassing 10, maybe he goes $9.875M. But he will be playing 26+ mins/game for the duration of the contract and should be thinking $11 or more.

Love this cause speaking of Morrissey, he’s a fun case to think about because he’s 5 years older than Dahlin and basically having the explosion of a year Dahlin is, perhaps not to quite the same extent. But Morrissey is Norris level. So worst case scenario is we are just seeing evidence of how special Dahlin is cause he’s amounting to that level at such a younger age. But the best case scenario is that Morrissey is evidence for the case that Dahlin is primed for another jump along the way. Which is kinda scary.

[Eleven]

It's gonna be 12.

[Archie Lee]

My prediction is 8x9.75. There are lots of comparables that come in between 8.5 and 9.5. I don’t sense Dahlin is going to ask for the moon. 

[PerreaultForever]

4 hours ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

Fox signed lasted year coming off his ELC at 9.5 for 7 years.

Makar signed after the 20-21 season for 6 years at 9 per season.

After seeing those deals I’m think 10 for 7 years or 10.5 for 8.

McAvoy is also worth comparing. 9.5 million. McAvoy was talked about as future captain when Bergeron retires, much like Dahlin has been talked about here. Different players but both cornerstones so that's an approx. number that makes sense to me.  

[Huckleberry]

Anything under 10 mill AAV is a win I think.

[Zamboni]

Dahlin. Assuming he signs for 7 or 8 years …

Give or take ….

”steal” anything under 9.4 mil per

”fair” anything from 9.5 to 11 per

”a lot” anything over 11.1 per

 

At least That’s how I see it