Cozens Contract Extension Announced, 7 years 7.1 Million AAV

[LGR4GM]

If Cozens is only a 60pt forward the life of that contract, it's still a good deal. 

[mjd1001]

11 hours ago, Porous Five Hole said:

ROR had his warts, but he was a legitimate first or second line center in his prime. i don’t know how to adjust ROR’s stats in his dead puck era to compare, but I bet they would be close (ROR went 17-38 = 55 pts in year three). In his first year in Buffalo (year four of his career), he went 21-39 for 60 pts.  That probably translates to at least 80 today, but I’m totally throwing darts. 
 

It is certainly possible that Cozens has a higher ceiling. 

Up until this year, O'Reilly has had pretty consistent offensive statistics.  The statistical peak of his career included his last 2 years in Col, all his time in Buffalo, and every year in St. Louis besides this past year.  Over that time, he got 0.81 points per game. In each of those years, starting from the first one, he ranked in terms of points per game:  53rd, 90th, 35th, 49th, 86th, 49th, 55th, 31st, and 121st.  

Soe he peaks at the 'low 30s' range ranking....he usually averaged close to 60th (his average was 60th over that period...take away the outliers, the best and worse, and he still is at 59th best)

Now I know this isn't terribly scientific, but that ranking would put him in the 'mid 40's for points this year.  I'm pretty confident that adjusted for the level of scoring, his 'historical 0.81' would be closer to 0.90 this year.   That is within a handful of points of where Cozins is right now.  Their goal to assist ratio is also very close.

So, at least in terms of points per game, Cozins is producing so far 'this year' at about the same rate as O'Rielly did during his peak years on average, adjusted for the increase in scoring this season. 

[Stoner]

I only skimmed Thorny (oddly, he didn't complain), but I think I agree with the gist of his point, IIUIC. Everyone has to have a definitive hot take, and mercy on your soul here if it's not in line with Group Think. There are opposing truths. I think it would be hard to explain this deal to a non sports fan. They'd rightly ask: why would the Sabres do this? Then ... Why would Cozens do it?

[nucci]

2 hours ago, LGR4GM said:

If Cozens is only a 60pt forward the life of that contract, it's still a good deal. 

it's a good deal but that would be a huge disappointment for 7th overall pick. I would hope for more than 60 points

[The Jokeman]

Count me in the I hope this isn't Cody Hodgson v 2.0. 

[Buffalonill]

20 minutes ago, The Jokeman said:

Count me in the I hope this isn't Cody Hodgson v 2.0. 

You do know this situation is nothing like that 

[Sabres Fan in NS]

Who told yous that Dylan would happily sign the Tage contract ...

😎

This is great news.

I still think that Dahlin will sign for a smidge under $10 ... $9.75 maybe even 8 x $9.5

[Weave]

51 minutes ago, The Jokeman said:

Count me in the I hope this isn't Cody Hodgson v 2.0. 

That he doesn’t develop a chronic, debilitating disease?  What a weird concern.  Count me in too.

Edited February 8, 2023 by Weave

[GASabresIUFAN]

52 minutes ago, The Jokeman said:

Count me in the I hope this isn't Cody Hodgson v 2.0. 

Cody was developing into a nice player, but was cut down do to a disease.  We have no idea what Cody would have been had he stayed healthy.  

Cozens also isn’t a Cody type of player.  Mitts is more Cody.  Dylan is a fast, skilled, 2 way forward who is willing to play in the dirty areas.  ROR is the comparable, but Dylan is faster and more skilled.  As long as he remains healthy, this contract should age very well.  I expect Dylan to become a pt a game player over the  term of this deal.  
 

Edited February 8, 2023 by GASabresIUFAN

[That Aud Smell]

2 hours ago, The Jokeman said:

Count me in the I hope this isn't Cody Hodgson v 2.0. 

1 hour ago, Weave said:

That he doesn’t develop a chronic, debilitating disease?  What a weird concern. 

The takes have been wild up in here, of late.

[MattPie]

2 hours ago, nucci said:

it's a good deal but that would be a huge disappointment for 7th overall pick. I would hope for more than 60 points

Hope is great, but according to this math the average for a #7 pick per 82 games is around 46 points. (128+209)/602 * 82

https://morehockeystats.com/drafts/pickstats

Edited February 8, 2023 by MattPie

[Weave]

17 minutes ago, MattPie said:

Hope is great, but according to this math the average for a #7 pick per 82 games is around 46 points. (128+209)/602 * 82

https://morehockeystats.com/drafts/pickstats

Someone should do a case study on fans overvaluing draft picks.

[nucci]

4 minutes ago, Weave said:

Someone should do a case study on fans overvaluing draft picks.

or maybe I can have my own opinion 

[Weave]

3 minutes ago, nucci said:

or maybe I can have my own opinion 

We can add that to the case study.

[GASabresIUFAN]

23 hours ago, Taro T said:

Elite & 2nd line seem contradictory terms.

You don’t think there are some elite players who are second line centers in the NHL? What about guys like Draisaitl, Malkin (in his prime) or Point? 

[Believer]

Bravo, Adams… Great decision, Cozens… Another building block secured on the road to a Cup

[Taro T]

10 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

You don’t think there are some elite players who are second line centers in the NHL? What about guys like Draisaitl, Malkin (in his prime) or Point? 

Covered that in the follow up post.

[JohnC]

Tage-Samuelsson-Cozens. All signed to new deals before the organization was required to. Collectively, these are not only good deals for the organization but also demonstrates a smart long-term view when making decisions. From an overview standpoint, this is smart cap management. If KA would have delayed in getting these players in the fold, the cost would have been greater. Signing upcoming young players to a lengthy contract is not as risky as signing more veteran players to a lengthy contract. Many lengthy contracts become diminishing returns. These players are entering their prime and will very likely give value returns on the backside of their respective contracts. This is good GM work.  

[carpandean]

3 hours ago, MattPie said:

Hope is great, but according to this math the average for a #7 pick per 82 games is around 46 points. (128+209)/602 * 82

https://morehockeystats.com/drafts/pickstats

A few things: (1) this includes all draft picks from 1969 - except pre-1991 Europeans - so there are multiple decades of likely irrelevant data included, (2) those numbers include all skaters, including defensemen who bring value not as well captured in points, (3) this includes all years of their respective careers, not just their prime years, or at least seven years in the middle, (4) that's average points per game played extrapolated out to 82 games, but that wouldn't actually be the average rate if so players never made it.

[BullBuchanan]

On 2/7/2023 at 2:09 PM, GASabresIUFAN said:

@BullBuchanan

Just curious what did you think Cozens' deal was going to come in at?  

KA has been re-signing his young core to long-term extensions.  What did you think this was going to cost for a 2nd line center scoring nearly a pt per game?

 

A couple things. First, I didn't see them signing him to a 7 year deal right now. That obviously bumps up his value quite a bit as they have to take potential into consideration. I saw a 2-4 year deal.

at 7.1M/yr that makes him the 30th highest compensated C in the league. I don't think he's a top 30 C. Based on his first two years he was a 3rd liner. This year has obviously been a lot better, but I felt it was way to soon to say this is who he is now and who he'll be as opposed to just having a good year. I figured a short term deal compensating him as the 80th-90th best C i the league would have been reasonable while we wait to see what kind of player he is.

Clearly everyone thinks he's way, way better than that. If that's the case maybe he does deserve to get paid more than guys like Nylander, Reinhart, Makinnon, malkin, Guentzal, Staal, etc. I'm just not there yet and that's why I had his comp expectations and term lower. I'm the only person here who doesn't think this though, so I accept I must be wrong and I hope that I am.

Edited February 8, 2023 by BullBuchanan

[That Aud Smell]

11 minutes ago, BullBuchanan said:

A couple things. First, I didn't see them signing him to a 7 year deal right now. That obviously bumps up his value quite a bit as they have to take potential into consideration. I saw a 2-4 year deal.

at 7.1M/yr that makes him the 30th highest compensated C in the league. I don't think he's a top 30 C. Based on his first two years he was a 3rd liner. This year has obviously been a lot better, but I felt it was way to soon to say this is who he is now and who he'll be as opposed to just having a good year. I figured a short term deal compensating him as the 80th-90th best C i the league would have been reasonable while we wait to see what kind of player he is.

Clearly everyone thinks he's way, way better than that. If that's the case maybe he does deserve to get paid more than guys like Nylander, Reinhart, Makinnon, malkin, Guentzal, Staal, etc. I'm just not there yet and that's why I had his comp expectations and term lower. I'm the only person here who doesn't think this though, so I accept I must be wrong and I hope that I am.

I'm glad I hung in there for this. I get where Bull's coming from now. And it's a fairly interesting take. I mean, it's also a funking bummer of a take that skews quite (unduly?) pessimistic. But it's coherent - mostly.

What's the reference to MacKinnon about?

[BullBuchanan]

4 minutes ago, That Aud Smell said:

I'm glad I hung in there for this. I get where Bull's coming from now. And it's a fairly interesting take. I mean, it's also a funking bummer of a take that skews quite (unduly?) pessimistic. But it's coherent - mostly.

What's the reference to MacKinnon about?

MacKinnon has the 38th highest cap hit compared to Cozens who will now have the 30th.
For what it's worth the Athletic saw him getting a deal of 4-5M over the long term and I saw a 3-4M over the short term, so I was off their estimates by 1M or so.

https://www.spotrac.com/nhl/rankings/center/

 

Edited February 8, 2023 by BullBuchanan

[Thorner]

6 minutes ago, That Aud Smell said:

I'm glad I hung in there for this. I get where Bull's coming from now. And it's a fairly interesting take. I mean, it's also a funking bummer of a take that skews quite (unduly?) pessimistic. But it's coherent - mostly.

What's the reference to MacKinnon about?

Cozens makes more 

[Curt]

47 minutes ago, BullBuchanan said:

A couple things. First, I didn't see them signing him to a 7 year deal right now. That obviously bumps up his value quite a bit as they have to take potential into consideration. I saw a 2-4 year deal.

at 7.1M/yr that makes him the 30th highest compensated C in the league. I don't think he's a top 30 C. Based on his first two years he was a 3rd liner. This year has obviously been a lot better, but I felt it was way to soon to say this is who he is now and who he'll be as opposed to just having a good year. I figured a short term deal compensating him as the 80th-90th best C i the league would have been reasonable while we wait to see what kind of player he is.

Clearly everyone thinks he's way, way better than that. If that's the case maybe he does deserve to get paid more than guys like Nylander, Reinhart, Makinnon, malkin, Guentzal, Staal, etc. I'm just not there yet and that's why I had his comp expectations and term lower. I'm the only person here who doesn't think this though, so I accept I must be wrong and I hope that I am.

It’s about length of the contract.  If Cozens had signed a 2-4 yr bridge he would have been a lot closer to that 80-90th C money.  Even still, after a 65+ point season at age 21-22, a 2-4 deal for Cozens still would have probably been in the $5M+ AAV.  After this breakout season, he was not going to sign for bottom 6 C money.

Also, Cozens is a young improving player, you can’t really expect him to sign a contract for what he was his first two seasons.  Especially since he has played WELL above that level this season.  These guys, agents and GM’s both, are negotiating contracts based upon what a player is projected to be over the life of the contract, not based directly on what they have done in the past.

Also also, just fyi, when Cozens’ contract kicks in next season, Mackinnon will be making $12.6M AAV ($16.5M real salary). Reinhart is on a short contract, which makes a huge difference.  Malkin is on a shorter contract with lots of age decline predicted.    You can’t just look at short contracts or contracts signed 5 years ago, or 11 years ago in Stall’s case, and compare them directly to a contract that will start in the 2023-24 season.  The circumstances of the player/contract make a world of difference in the final $ figure.

 

[That Aud Smell]

42 minutes ago, BullBuchanan said:

MacKinnon has the 38th highest cap hit compared to Cozens who will now have the 30th.
For what it's worth the Athletic saw him getting a deal of 4-5M over the long term and I saw a 3-4M over the short term, so I was off their estimates by 1M or so.

https://www.spotrac.com/nhl/rankings/center/

 

40 minutes ago, Thorny said:

Cozens makes more 

I understand all of that, or at least did in general terms when I asked my question. MacKinnon's current deal was signed - what, 6 years ago? 7 years ago? I know the cap hasn't gone up much since then, but the passage of time erodes its relevance to an analysis of the Cozens deal.