Cozens Contract Extension Announced, 7 years 7.1 Million AAV

[GASabresIUFAN]

2 minutes ago, steveoath said:

Is Adams an actual wizard?

With forwards

[Norcal]

Although I wonder what happened to the bridge deal in hockey and woulda liked a few more years at team control for a little less money, I do like that the Sabres have their top 2 centers locked up for only $14 mil when some teams have only one signed at $10+

Congrats Cozey!! Lets GO Boys!!

 

Edited February 7, 2023 by Norcal

[DarthEbriate]

1 minute ago, BullBuchanan said:

They aren't contradictory at all. You have guys like Malkin, bakstrom, Tavares that cozens is now in the same money realm as (exceeds both malkin and bakstrom). It just seems like an insane gamble to me. He would have to double his production from last year at a minimum and then hold that throughout the deal for it to be worth it.

Trolling is fun, isn't it?

Malkin - Age 36 - 49 gp, 19-31-50 (linemates: Zucker - Rust); cap hit $6.1M (for a deal he signed 8 months ago, his previous more comparable cap hit was $9.5M)

Backstrom - Age 35 - 10 gp, 1-4-5 (mates: MoJo - Oshie); cap hit $9.2M

Tavares - Age 32 - 52 gp, 21-30-51 (mates: Jarnkrok - Nylander); cap hit $11M

Which of these players would you rather have than Cozens? (And Cozens will earn Selke votes starting very soon.)

[IKnowPhysics]

Just now, Norcal said:

Although I wonder what happened to the bridge deal in hockey and woulda liked a few more years at team control for a little less money

Only to absolutely get soaked salary/cap wise after that bridge deal and that's if he even agrees to sign in Buffalo?

[Thorner]

32 minutes ago, Brawndo said:

 

It’s funny that the *one guy* they missed this trend on is the guy who’s going to get the most - I’ve mentioned a few times now that it hardly matters considering the other value deals, it’s just such an interesting discussion point to me because they are doing it with everyone but their best player.

Was it because Adams wasn’t fully in control yet when he bridged Dahlin? Or he hadn’t built up a confidence in him yet? Or was it Dahlin betting on himself?

Edited February 7, 2023 by Thorny

[BullBuchanan]

1 minute ago, DarthEbriate said:

Trolling is fun, isn't it?

Malkin - Age 36 - 49 gp, 19-31-50 (linemates: Zucker - Rust); cap hit $6.1M (for a deal he signed 8 months ago, his previous more comparable cap hit was $9.5M)

Backstrom - Age 35 - 10 gp, 1-4-5 (mates: MoJo - Oshie); cap hit $9.2M

Tavares - Age 32 - 52 gp, 21-30-51 (mates: Jarnkrok - Nylander); cap hit $11M

Which of these players would you rather have than Cozens? (And Cozens will earn Selke votes starting very soon.)

not trolling at all, but ok. I figured a Cozens extension would be something like $3m per for 3-4 years. Until this season he's been an up and down bottom six guy. If I were to chart out all the #2 centers in the league I'm not sure he's in the top 2/3, let alone the $7M club.

[Thorner]

26 minutes ago, Brawndo said:

And a serious thank you and tip of the cap to Sam Ventura 

 

 

For what? Actually asking 

[Eleven]

I'm ok with the deal.  This also is why they're not trading for Timo Meier, no matter what fantasies people might have.

[LabattBlue]

8 minutes ago, steveoath said:

Is Adams an actual wizard?

Maybe just pull back on the reins a little.  How about make the playoffs for the first time in over a decade, and (gasp) maybe even win a playoff round or two before crowning Adams. 

[pi2000]

[nfreeman]

It's not without risk, but no contract is.

I think it's a great deal for the Sabres.

And I think Dahlin will sign for an AAV in the nines.

[French Collection]

9 minutes ago, BullBuchanan said:

He's at 54 right now...

Horvat, at 27 is scoring at 50% more than his career average. Nowhere but down from here as he ages, he is at his peak, accentuated by his desire to get paid as a first time UFA.

Cozens is slightly behind Horvat’s best season, at 21 years old, making $1.5 M less. His best years are ahead of him.

BTW Tavares makes over $11M per year.

[DarthEbriate]

20 minutes ago, freester said:

No evidence the cap is about to skyrocket. 

17 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

Dylan Cozens is currently projected to finish the season with 81games 28goals 43assists for 71points. All he would need to do is maintain his current rate of play, not improve, just maintain. 

Either this offseason or next the cap will probably jump 6million bucks. It has been kept artificially low so the players can pay back escrow from the covid times and also Seattle's income has not fully been added to the ledger again because of the covid. 

Escrow pays off before 2024, and then the cap follow the new profits. Seattle money begins to apply. As yet unknown gambling promotion money begins to apply. ESPN/Disney & TNT money kicks in. And Canada needs a new replacement TV deal in 2025-26 that will easily exceed its current $5B. Get ready for a lot of absurd contracts in the summer of 2025.

[Thorner]

20 minutes ago, BullBuchanan said:

They aren't contradictory at all. You have guys like Malkin, bakstrom, Tavares that cozens is now in the same money realm as (exceeds both malkin and bakstrom). It just seems like an insane gamble to me. He would have to double his production from last year at a minimum and then hold that throughout the deal for it to be worth it.

If he maintains for 7 years agreed. He's done it for 40 games out of a career so far. Players regress all the time after big one-off years.

I think the logic here is that, if guys like Cozens regress we are up sh*ts creek (good show) anyways, so we might as well take our shots at value deals b/c if you don’t find yourself a few of those you’ll ALSO be in for a significant uphill climb (as we’ve seen). To go from good to great you have to win a series of gambles, at a stage where merely “checking” isn’t an option when the teams at the table are continually, in this spot, upping the stakes 

Edited February 7, 2023 by Thorny

[LGR4GM]

8 minutes ago, Norcal said:

Although I wonder what happened to the bridge deal in hockey and woulda liked a few more years at team control for a little less money, I do like that the Sabres have their top 2 centers locked up for only $14 mil when some teams have only one signed at $10+

Congrats Cozey!! Lets GO Boys!!

 

The NYI just locked up their top 2 centers to a combined 17.65mil so we should be pretty happy especially when one of ours is only about to turn 22. 

[Eleven]

12 minutes ago, steveoath said:

Is Adams an actual wizard?

Not until there's a legit NHLer between the pipes.  And that may or may not be UPL, Comrie, Levi, etc., but Adyms is not there yet.

[BullBuchanan]

1 minute ago, French Collection said:

Horvat, at 27 is scoring at 50% more than his career average. Nowhere but down from here as he ages, he is at his peak, accentuated by his desire to get paid as a first time UFA.

Cozens is slightly behind Horvat’s best season, at 21 years old, making $1.5 M less. His best years are ahead of him.

BTW Tavares makes over $11M per year.

The difference is Horvat has a body of work. Cozens is having a career year on the #1 scoring offense in the league while previously looking like a bit of a disappointment based his draft stock. I REALLY hope this proves to be a great contract, I'm just super skeptical that all of these kids just suddenly became elite level players overnight and that they'll be able to hold it.

[Thorner]

10 minutes ago, DarthEbriate said:

Trolling is fun, isn't it?

Malkin - Age 36 - 49 gp, 19-31-50 (linemates: Zucker - Rust); cap hit $6.1M (for a deal he signed 8 months ago, his previous more comparable cap hit was $9.5M)

Backstrom - Age 35 - 10 gp, 1-4-5 (mates: MoJo - Oshie); cap hit $9.2M

Tavares - Age 32 - 52 gp, 21-30-51 (mates: Jarnkrok - Nylander); cap hit $11M

Which of these players would you rather have than Cozens? (And Cozens will earn Selke votes starting very soon.)

I wouldn’t call it trolling 

[GASabresIUFAN]

Obviously it's impossible to predict how any contract is going to age, but this contract has the potential to be a great bargain for the Sabres.  Yes Dylan gets 49 million whether he succeeds or fails, but what in his character even hints that he doesn't want to continue to grow and improve?  Nothing. 

I also think KA made it clear that he has his core and wants to get that core signed, sealed and delivered.  I agree wholeheartedly.  Unlike the Thompson situation where the improvement came seemingly out of left field.  Cozens has improved dramatically each of his 3 seasons.  I honestly believe he'll easily be a pt a game player for the term of this deal, making this contract a bargain in hockey terms.

I do think it's interesting that the deal came in 42K under Thompson's annual cap hit.  I guess KA didn't want to pay his 2nd line center more than his 1st.

Also I think this indication that management and the players on this club are on the same page.  Hear me out.  We have seen numerous reports how close many of the young guys on this team are.  Someone mentioned earlier that Dylan left money on the table.  He possibly did, but I get the distinct impression that Tage, Dylan, Dahlin and others want to build something together and that if leaving a few $ on the table so that guys like Mitts or Joki can be kept another year or two, that's ok by them.  Also Dylan will be a UFA at 28.  Plenty of more $ to earn while still in his prime.  

[LGR4GM]

4 minutes ago, BullBuchanan said:

not trolling at all, but ok. I figured a Cozens extension would be something like $3m per for 3-4 years. Until this season he's been an up and down bottom six guy. If I were to chart out all the #2 centers in the league I'm not sure he's in the top 2/3, let alone the $7M club.

A couple of things. Cozens has not been up and down, he has steadily progressed each season he has played, this being his 3rd year. 

If you were to chart out the top 2 centers on every NHL team right now, I can guarantee you that Dylan Cozens would fall in the top 2/3. He is certainly better than 8 other teams 2nd center. 

[That Aud Smell]

37 minutes ago, BullBuchanan said:

I'm really shocked everyone thinks this is a great deal. Why? The first thing I thought was that is was a gross overpayment by over double. I've always seen him as a Girgensons replacement and a 3rd liner. Now he's making Tage Thompson money. Are we really saying he's an elite 2nd line center now?

Horvat at 8.5 seems like a much better deal.

This is like performance art.

9 minutes ago, DarthEbriate said:

Trolling is fun, isn't it?

Been a minute since I felt inspired to post this

 

[Buffalonill]

55 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

 Seems like the opposite always happens... This is for you guys

 

We won't make the playoffs 

[LGR4GM]

1 minute ago, BullBuchanan said:

The difference is Horvat has a body of work. Cozens is having a career year on the #1 scoring offense in the league while previously looking like a bit of a disappointment based his draft stock. I REALLY hope this proves to be a great contract, I'm just super skeptical that all of these kids just suddenly became elite level players overnight and that they'll be able to hold it.

Go look up Horvat's career shooting percentage and then what he is doing this year. 

Edited February 7, 2023 by LGR4GM

[LGR4GM]

SO based on Dom's stuff this is a slight overpay but I think Dom's model as he himself notes, is underselling Dylan a bit. 

[IKnowPhysics]

3 minutes ago, nfreeman said:

It's not without risk, but no contract is.

I think it's a great deal for the Sabres.

And I think Dahlin will sign for an AAV in the nines.

We should be ecstatic if Dahlin's contract stays in the nines.  Karlsson's 11.5 and Doofy's 11.  The other top eight are all 9-10.  After this year, we'll be lucky to keep Dahlin for <10, and it'd be a miracle to get him <9.  Dahlin for 8.5 would get Adams GMOTY.