Cozens Contract Extension Announced, 7 years 7.1 Million AAV

[BullBuchanan]

1 minute ago, That Aud Smell said:

I understand all of that, or at least did in general terms when I asked my question. MacKinnon's current deal was signed - what, 6 years ago? 7 years ago? I know the cap hasn't gone up much since then, but the passage of time erodes its relevance to an analysis of the Cozens deal.

I wouldn't really call it an analysis, I just pulled up the list of centers by cap hit and sorted. Feel free to drop him from the list.

[Thorner]

12 minutes ago, That Aud Smell said:

I understand all of that, or at least did in general terms when I asked my question. MacKinnon's current deal was signed - what, 6 years ago? 7 years ago? I know the cap hasn't gone up much since then, but the passage of time erodes its relevance to an analysis of the Cozens deal.

Ya for sure was just pointing out why he included MacKinnon 

[That Aud Smell]

3 hours ago, BullBuchanan said:

I wouldn't really call it an analysis, I just pulled up the list of centers by cap hit and sorted. Feel free to drop him from the list.

3 hours ago, Thorny said:

Ya for sure was just pointing out why he included MacKinnon 

[MattPie]

6 hours ago, carpandean said:

A few things: (1) this includes all draft picks from 1969 - except pre-1991 Europeans - so there are multiple decades of likely irrelevant data included, (2) those numbers include all skaters, including defensemen who bring value not as well captured in points, (3) this includes all years of their respective careers, not just their prime years, or at least seven years in the middle, (4) that's average points per game played extrapolated out to 82 games, but that wouldn't actually be the average rate if so players never made it.

That's fair, it's not ideal. Unfortunately I'm not seeing a easy dataset to pull from. I still think a lot of people have inflated expectations of what scoring looks like in the league.

[Doohicksie]

Another discussion triggered from the Cozens signing.

https://www.cbc.ca/listen/live-radio/1-81-airplay/clip/15964954-dylan-cozens-inks-massive-deal-sabres-tsn-analyst

[Richard Noggin]

7 hours ago, BullBuchanan said:

A couple things. First, I didn't see them signing him to a 7 year deal right now. That obviously bumps up his value quite a bit as they have to take potential into consideration. I saw a 2-4 year deal.

at 7.1M/yr that makes him the 30th highest compensated C in the league. I don't think he's a top 30 C. Based on his first two years he was a 3rd liner. This year has obviously been a lot better, but I felt it was way to soon to say this is who he is now and who he'll be as opposed to just having a good year. I figured a short term deal compensating him as the 80th-90th best C i the league would have been reasonable while we wait to see what kind of player he is.

Clearly everyone thinks he's way, way better than that. If that's the case maybe he does deserve to get paid more than guys like Nylander, Reinhart, Makinnon, malkin, Guentzal, Staal, etc. I'm just not there yet and that's why I had his comp expectations and term lower. I'm the only person here who doesn't think this though, so I accept I must be wrong and I hope that I am.

I'm having trouble with these bolded comps for Dylan's deal...lots of trouble. Aside from current 2022/23 production, where Cozens IS actually a reasonable comparison to most of the the listed all-stars who are all MUCH older and playing on MUCH better lines, I can't imagine someone confusing a 7-year deal for a 21-year old who centers two rookies with deals for much older, more established NHL superstars (some of them).

NONE of the above listed players are even REASONABLE comps with respect to current, novel contract construction. 

 

[K-9]

1 hour ago, Richard Noggin said:

I'm having trouble with these bolded comps for Dylan's deal...lots of trouble. Aside from current 2022/23 production, where Cozens IS actually a reasonable comparison to most of the the listed all-stars who are all MUCH older and playing on MUCH better lines, I can't imagine someone confusing a 7-year deal for a 21-year old who centers two rookies with deals for much older, more established NHL superstars (some of them).

NONE of the above listed players are even REASONABLE comps with respect to current, novel contract construction. 

 

I would also add that with the exception of MacKinnon, none of the other players listed would be able to provide what Cozens does for the Sabres as an all around player. Additionally, he is 22 years old who is still ascending as a player and is several years away from his prime while those players are fully baked. 

[JohnC]

14 hours ago, That Aud Smell said:

I understand all of that, or at least did in general terms when I asked my question. MacKinnon's current deal was signed - what, 6 years ago? 7 years ago? I know the cap hasn't gone up much since then, but the passage of time erodes its relevance to an analysis of the Cozens deal.

Stating the obvious that Dahlin's signing a bridge deal gave him more time to demonstrate that he is in the elite category. He is going to get a contract commensurate with his status as a top tier player in the league. What would have been the cost if Tage would have signed a short-term deal and then pursued a long-term deal? Our GM is systematically locking up the new core and doing in such a fashion that he will have roster flexibility because of his cap management. The GM has been in his position for a short period of time. In short order with a lot of smart decisions (including those associated with staffing) he has not only stabilized a teetering franchise but has also put it on a favorable path. 

[LGR4GM]

15 hours ago, That Aud Smell said:

I understand all of that, or at least did in general terms when I asked my question. MacKinnon's current deal was signed - what, 6 years ago? 7 years ago? I know the cap hasn't gone up much since then, but the passage of time erodes its relevance to an analysis of the Cozens deal.

I don't think we should be using the contract that Cozens will make next season to compare to what a player like MacKinnon will make this season (considering if you aligned his deal with Cozens he makes 12.6mil compared to cozens 7.1 or a difference of 5.5million).

What I am saying is we would need the list of centers and salaries for the 2023 season as it is exceedingly unfair to use one players 2023 salary and everyone else pre 2023 salaries. 

[LGR4GM]

Dylan Cozens ranks 33rd for Centers in the NHL according to capfriendly, for next season (2023), when his contract goes into effect. 

Here are the 10 below and 17 above him on that caphit list. I have included their age and the amount they are against the cap. I did not look at when any of these deals were signed. Note some of these players may be considered wingers but I went with capfriendly's position designation. 

Bo Horvat 28 - 8.5mil

Sebastian Aho 25 - 8.46mil

Roope Hintz 26 - 8.45

Tim Stutzle 21 - 8.35

Thomas Hertl 29 - 8.138mil

Robert Thomas 23 - 8.125mil

Ryan Johansen 30 - 8mil

Jack Hughes 22 - 8mil

Logan Couture 34 - 8mil

Josh Norris 24 - 7.95mil

Nick Suzuki 23 - 7.875mil

Evgeny Kuznetsov 32 - 7.8mil

Sean Couturier 31 - 7.75mil

Elias Petterson 24 - 7.35mil

Nico Hischier 24 - 7.25mil

Kevin Hayes 31 - 7.143mil

Tage Thompson 25 - 7.143mil

Dylan Cozens 21 - 7.1mil

Nazem Kadri 32 - 7mil

Brayden Schenn 31 - 6.5mil

Mark Sheifele 30 - 6.125mil

Evgeni Malkin 36 - 6.1mil

Brock Nelson 31 - 6mil

William Karlsson 30 - 5.9mil

Vincent Trochek 29 - 5.625mil

Andrew Copp 28 - 5.625mil

Phillip Denault 30 - 5.5mil

Michael Backlund 34 - 5.35mil

 

What does this mean? Dylan Cozens is at the bottom of players under 25 for cap that are even in the rough range we have here. There is no player under 25 between Cozens and #50 on the list either. We should be happy with this as we are seeing the new way of doing business in the NHL, you pay for future production, not past production. Does that mean you are at risk? Yes, all contract carry risk. What is to say that 28yr old Bo Horvat won't suddenly regress to 50pts a year after this one? How is that different than paying Cozens for 60-65pts a year for the same amount of time? My point is we should be happy that we are on the low end of this because we are saving money that can and will be used elsewhere. It is now up to Cozens and Thompson to earn the deals they were given each year. 

[French Collection]

1 hour ago, LGR4GM said:

Dylan Cozens ranks 33rd for Centers in the NHL according to capfriendly, for next season (2023), when his contract goes into effect. 

Here are the 10 below and 17 above him on that caphit list. I have included their age and the amount they are against the cap. I did not look at when any of these deals were signed. Note some of these players may be considered wingers but I went with capfriendly's position designation. 

Bo Horvat 28 - 8.5mil

Sebastian Aho 25 - 8.46mil

Roope Hintz 26 - 8.45

Tim Stutzle 21 - 8.35

Thomas Hertl 29 - 8.138mil

Robert Thomas 23 - 8.125mil

Ryan Johansen 30 - 8mil

Jack Hughes 22 - 8mil

Logan Couture 34 - 8mil

Josh Norris 24 - 7.95mil

Nick Suzuki 23 - 7.875mil

Evgeny Kuznetsov 32 - 7.8mil

Sean Couturier 31 - 7.75mil

Elias Petterson 24 - 7.35mil

Nico Hischier 24 - 7.25mil

Kevin Hayes 31 - 7.143mil

Tage Thompson 25 - 7.143mil

Dylan Cozens 21 - 7.1mil

Nazem Kadri 32 - 7mil

Brayden Schenn 31 - 6.5mil

Mark Sheifele 30 - 6.125mil

Evgeni Malkin 36 - 6.1mil

Brock Nelson 31 - 6mil

William Karlsson 30 - 5.9mil

Vincent Trochek 29 - 5.625mil

Andrew Copp 28 - 5.625mil

Phillip Denault 30 - 5.5mil

Michael Backlund 34 - 5.35mil

 

What does this mean? Dylan Cozens is at the bottom of players under 25 for cap that are even in the rough range we have here. There is no player under 25 between Cozens and #50 on the list either. We should be happy with this as we are seeing the new way of doing business in the NHL, you pay for future production, not past production. Does that mean you are at risk? Yes, all contract carry risk. What is to say that 28yr old Bo Horvat won't suddenly regress to 50pts a year after this one? How is that different than paying Cozens for 60-65pts a year for the same amount of time? My point is we should be happy that we are on the low end of this because we are saving money that can and will be used elsewhere. It is now up to Cozens and Thompson to earn the deals they were given each year. 

This reinforces my view of the Cozens deal. I would much rather pay for future performance than past performance.

The Kadri, Horvat and other recent deals like those are fair dollar wise but the term is what I can’t fathom. It’s easy for the player to take those deals but GMs committing 7-8 years to guys at or past their primes is crazy.

You can get burned by young guys flaming out or even falling short of their ceilings, but there is a greater chance of outperformance from a 21-23 year old than a 28-31 year old.

[Taro T]

42 minutes ago, French Collection said:

This reinforces my view of the Cozens deal. I would much rather pay for future performance than past performance.

The Kadri, Horvat and other recent deals like those are fair dollar wise but the term is what I can’t fathom. It’s easy for the player to take those deals but GMs committing 7-8 years to guys at or past their primes is crazy.

You can get burned by young guys flaming out or even falling short of their ceilings, but there is a greater chance of outperformance from a 21-23 year old than a 28-31 year old.

To the bolded, that is true.  But further, if you DO badly overestimate how good a kid will be, you can buy out the deal for only 1/3 of face value rather than the typical 2/3's.

[shrader]

12 hours ago, Doohickie said:

Another discussion triggered from the Cozens signing.

https://www.cbc.ca/listen/live-radio/1-81-airplay/clip/15964954-dylan-cozens-inks-massive-deal-sabres-tsn-analyst

Can we get a Gord's Notes summary of the discussion (or whatever it was we learned last week that canadians call them)?

[Taro T]

2 minutes ago, shrader said:

Can we get a Gord's Notes summary of the discussion (or whatever it was we learned last week that canadians call them)?

Ricky Notes would be more entertaining and only marginally less legible.

[Brawndo]

Adams confirms what @tom webster reported that Cozens Agent reached out to the Sabres this Summer to get the deal done

 

[bob_sauve28]

20 goals!! 

[matter2003]

On 2/9/2023 at 2:11 PM, Brawndo said:

Adams confirms what @tom webster reported that Cozens Agent reached out to the Sabres this Summer to get the deal done

 

Always nice when agents want to get deals done because clients want to stay with the team.

 

Sit back and enjoy the ride over the next year or two...this team is going to be a force before too long.

Edited February 19, 2023 by matter2003

[Pimlach]

Once he gets on a stable line he will be a ppg player.  Plus he does everything needed over 200 feet of ice.  

[Sabres Fan in NS]

Worth every penny.

His goal last night was something else.

[shrader]

22 minutes ago, Pimlach said:

Once he gets on a stable line he will be a ppg player.  Plus he does everything needed over 200 feet of ice.  

I hope that stable line is with the kids once they’ve put some more miles under their tires. They’re going to be scary once they’re fully established nhl players. 

[matter2003]

22 minutes ago, shrader said:

I hope that stable line is with the kids once they’ve put some more miles under their tires. They’re going to be scary once they’re fully established nhl players. 

I'm not sure where these other prospects coming up are going to play...they have lots of talent and no real roster spots open...maybe one or two

 

[Pimlach]

21 minutes ago, shrader said:

I hope that stable line is with the kids once they’ve put some more miles under their tires. They’re going to be scary once they’re fully established nhl players. 

Me too.  I sure hope that it is Quinn and Peterka.  Next year they should take a big lea forward.  This year they have both had flashes of really good play mixed with growing pains.  I wonder how many points Cozens has playing on other lines or on special teams - it would not surprise if it is half of his production this year.  

[French Collection]

31 minutes ago, Pimlach said:

Me too.  I sure hope that it is Quinn and Peterka.  Next year they should take a big lea forward.  This year they have both had flashes of really good play mixed with growing pains.  I wonder how many points Cozens has playing on other lines or on special teams - it would not surprise if it is half of his production this year.  

JJP has looked like a lost puppy the last month or so.

At least Quinn is getting multiple chances per game.

[Derrico]

On 2/9/2023 at 9:44 AM, LGR4GM said:

Dylan Cozens ranks 33rd for Centers in the NHL according to capfriendly, for next season (2023), when his contract goes into effect. 

Here are the 10 below and 17 above him on that caphit list. I have included their age and the amount they are against the cap. I did not look at when any of these deals were signed. Note some of these players may be considered wingers but I went with capfriendly's position designation. 

Bo Horvat 28 - 8.5mil

Sebastian Aho 25 - 8.46mil

Roope Hintz 26 - 8.45

Tim Stutzle 21 - 8.35

Thomas Hertl 29 - 8.138mil

Robert Thomas 23 - 8.125mil

Ryan Johansen 30 - 8mil

Jack Hughes 22 - 8mil

Logan Couture 34 - 8mil

Josh Norris 24 - 7.95mil

Nick Suzuki 23 - 7.875mil

Evgeny Kuznetsov 32 - 7.8mil

Sean Couturier 31 - 7.75mil

Elias Petterson 24 - 7.35mil

Nico Hischier 24 - 7.25mil

Kevin Hayes 31 - 7.143mil

Tage Thompson 25 - 7.143mil

Dylan Cozens 21 - 7.1mil

Nazem Kadri 32 - 7mil

Brayden Schenn 31 - 6.5mil

Mark Sheifele 30 - 6.125mil

Evgeni Malkin 36 - 6.1mil

Brock Nelson 31 - 6mil

William Karlsson 30 - 5.9mil

Vincent Trochek 29 - 5.625mil

Andrew Copp 28 - 5.625mil

Phillip Denault 30 - 5.5mil

Michael Backlund 34 - 5.35mil

 

What does this mean? Dylan Cozens is at the bottom of players under 25 for cap that are even in the rough range we have here. There is no player under 25 between Cozens and #50 on the list either. We should be happy with this as we are seeing the new way of doing business in the NHL, you pay for future production, not past production. Does that mean you are at risk? Yes, all contract carry risk. What is to say that 28yr old Bo Horvat won't suddenly regress to 50pts a year after this one? How is that different than paying Cozens for 60-65pts a year for the same amount of time? My point is we should be happy that we are on the low end of this because we are saving money that can and will be used elsewhere. It is now up to Cozens and Thompson to earn the deals they were given each year. 

Is it crazy that I watch as much hockey as I do and didn’t have a ***** clue who Roope Hintz is???

[Doohicksie]

8 hours ago, Derrico said:

Is it crazy that I watch as much hockey as I do and didn’t have a ***** clue who Roope Hintz is???

Yes it is.  Then again he plays in the TV market where I live so maybe I'm biased.

He's a pretty damned good player.