What Do You Expect Of Quinn The Last Part Of Season?

[bob_sauve28]

He seems so close to turning the corner. Would you like to see him with new line mates? (I know the lines are fairly well set, this is a thought exercise) 

 

I wouldn't mind him playing with Krebs. I'd just like to see if they clicked together. 

 

Edited February 6, 2023 by bob_sauve28

[jad1]

I expect Quinn to be fundamentally sound and continue his development, but I don't expect him to be a major contributor on the score sheet.  His season so far is similar to Cozens season last year.  Cozens played very sound hockey after the All Star break, but only scored 3 goals.  

I also expect Quinn to take off next season, like Cozens has done this year.

[LGR4GM]

I expect a steady increase and that the all-star break will have helped him. Quinn is projected to 35pts but I am going to put him at 40pts for the year. 16g, 24a when all is said and done. Next year... 65pts or more. 

[NAF]

I feel like Quinn is a bit snakebitten and is shooting at a low percentage for a guy touted as a sniper/goalscorer. Hopefully in the latter part of the season he can start finding the back of the net more. Next year is really when I expect him to takeoff. I really think there is star potential within this player. A poor man's Pastrnak maybe.

[Buffalonill]

20 goals by the end of the year .

 

[GoPuckYourself]

He's having Dylan Cozens season from last year which is right where he needs to be, he's showing signs of his ability and hopefully will get much needed playoff experience as well. I hope the Sabres staff asks him to add some additional weight as well so he can absorb hits better, right now the only thing I don't like from his game is that he gets hit and immediately crumbles most of the time it seems so I'm hoping he adds some muscle in the offseason.

[GASabresIUFAN]

I think Cozens last year is about right.  JJP in the same area.

[Brawndo]

1 hour ago, LGR4GM said:

I expect a steady increase and that the all-star break will have helped him. Quinn is projected to 35pts but I am going to put him at 40pts for the year. 16g, 24a when all is said and done. Next year... 65pts or more. 

One of the primary reasons not to do the Meier Trade is that Quinn is tracking almost identically to Meier’s First Full Season in the NHL and has better defensive metrics. 
 

Quinn isn’t far behind Meier this season. 

 

[bob_sauve28]

12 minutes ago, Brawndo said:

One of the primary reasons not to do the Meier Trade is that Quinn is tracking almost identically to Meier’s First Full Season in the NHL and has better defensive metrics. 
 

Quinn isn’t far behind Meier this season. 

 

Quinn does seem to make a lot of good back check plays 

[steveoath]

Isn't this part of his usual adaptation period? Get to know the higher level in year 1. Then destroy it in year 2.

[French Collection]

I thought Quinn could score 20 goals this season. It is still possible, he gets chances and has come close on many occasions.

He is a better shooter than he has shown so far. Once the seal is broken he will be a regular contributor. He skates well enough, handles the puck really well and has great playmaking skills too. He just needs to get stronger and gain the confidence that he can score at the NHL level.

Coming soon, to a scoreboard near you.

[SwampD]

To more consistently show glimpses of the star he is going to become.

[Rasmus_]

18 goals, 23 assists for 41 points.  I think that's about what I'd expect.  Which is a pretty good first season.

[K-9]

Upward trajectory.

[JohnC]

8 minutes ago, K-9 said:

Upward trajectory.

Every once in a while, he will make a nifty move in tight quarters and get off a sniper shot. Whether the puck goes in or not you get tantalized by the talent. There has been a pattern in Quinn's development. At whatever level he has been in after a first year adjustment period, he takes off in his second year. He acclimates and then thrives. I expect him to make progress in the second half of this season. Next year, I expect him, and also JJ, to become not only better players but also mainstay players for us. 

[LGR4GM]

The thing to watch with Quinn in the last stretch here is how he manipulates defenders and the space around himself to make that additional play be it a pass, shot, or just to move into new space. Dahlin is very good at this where he will bait defenders or manipulate them to get where he wants to go or open up something he wants. Tage Thomposon has started doing this more when he isn't trying to shoot. He can manipulate defenders when he wants to shoot but now he has added another level to that. Jack Quinn is a step above JJP because JJP is very much a straight forward, dangles with speed attacker. Jack Quinn can do that but you also see him slam the breaks or fake something or thread a pass somewhere etc. There is just more nuance to what Quinn does and as soon as he is 190lbs, he will be able to do things regularly that we now only catch glimpses of. 

[IKnowPhysics]

It's easy to look at Quinn's game log and see that he had 6G 11A in 28GP before new year's and then 2G 1A in the 14GP since then, and think he's stalling or he's inconsistent.

However, while his iG/60 dipped from 0.9 to 0.79 from then to now, his ixG/60 and iCF/60 have both gone up.  He's actually creating more and better chances.  So what's really going on?  What's changed?  Let's scan the stats.  The first number is from the beginning of the season up to new year's day.  The second number is since then.

• CF/60 55.63 -> 58.70 (no change)
• CA/60 52.02 -> 55.93 (no change)
• GF/60 3.97 -> 1.98 (big drop in actual goals for)
• GA/60 3.07 -> 1.98 (big drop in actual goals against)
• xGF/60 3.19 -> 3.13 (no change in expected goals for)
• xGA/60 2.43 -> 2.54 (no change in expected goals against)
• HDCF/60 13.19 -> 14.28 (not much change)
• HDCA/60 9.03 -> 11.50 (not much change)
• Giveaways/60 1.45 -> 1.59 (no change)
• Takeaways/60 1.81 -> 2.78 (huge improvement)

 

Three things stand out.

1. The offense of his line (xGF/60) is steady, but pucks aren't going in (GF/60).  But his individual offense (ixG/60) is up and his individual goal scoring (iG/60) hasn't dropped that much.  The high danger offense number (HDCF/60) haven't changed.  His giveaways aren't changing.  It might be someone else's fault.  Let's come back to this.
2. The defense of his line (xGA/60 and HDCA/60) is steady, but they are being scored against much less (GA/60).  My money's on better goal tending or better performance from defense behind them.
3. He's getting more engaged on defense.  His takeaways are wayyy up.  We see this also with Cozens (1.45 -> 2.24) and Peterka (0.96 -> 1.53).  This is a Don-Teaches-the-Fundamentals outcome: the kids are improving their individual man-on-man defense and becoming better fundamental hockey players.  

 

But why aren't the pucks going in?  One note is that his linemates are giving the puck away a little more.  Peterka's giveaways/60 are way up (0.83 -> 1.91).  Cozens' are up slightly (0.58 -> 0.75).  Let's check the rest.

Cozens

• CF/60 57.25 -> 55.65 (no change)
• CA/60 55.37 -> 57.37 (no change)
• iG/60 1.01 -> 0.75 (down a bit)
• ixG/60 1.10 -> 0.92 (no change)
• iCF/60 14.17 -> 13.45 (no change)
• GF/60 3.47 -> 1.49 (down a good bit; these line stats are similar to Quinn)
• GA/60 3.61 -> 1.87 (down a good bit; these line stats are similar to Quinn)
• xGF/60 3.02 -> 3.25 (very good, now 2nd on team)
• xGA/60 2.72 -> 3.09 (not much change)
• HDCF/60 12.14 -> 13.82 (not much change)
• HDCA/60 11.42 -> 16.06 (suddenly worst on team)

 

Peterka

• CF/60 54.32 -> 62.35 (up quite a bit)
• CA/60 53.35 -> 66.48 (up quite a bit)
• iG/60 0.96 -> 0.00 (obviously down a lot)
• ixG/60 0.69 -> 0.78 (up a little bit)
• iCF/60 12.38 -> 15.3 (up a little bit)
• GF/60 3.44 -> 1.53 (down a good bit, same as Cozens and Quinn)
• GA/60 3.3 -> 2.29 (down a good bit, same as Cozens and Quinn)
• xGF/60 2.9 -> 3.41 (suddenly up and now leads team; this is phenomenally high, approx 37th in the league over the same period for regular forwards)
• xGA/60 2.69 -> 2.47 (not much change)
• HDCF/60 12.51 -> 14.15 (not much change)
• HDCA/60 11.55 -> 12.24 (not much change)

 

It looks like Cozens is sacrificing high danger chances against (HDCA/60) a bit in favor of what should be all three players getting blistering amounts of expected goals for (xGF/60).  And that's in addition to the higher giveaways by Cozens and Peterka.  Because actual GA/60 is down, the increased reliance on goaltending is working for now.  But the expected goals-for haven't been finding the back of the net.

I'm almost positive this line is in a dam-is-ready-to-burst condition.  I expect a breakout game or games coming for one or all three players.  The fact that Peterka has elite offensive production with zero goals in absolutely unsustainable.

 

 

Edited February 6, 2023 by IKnowPhysics

[Taro T]

11 minutes ago, IKnowPhysics said:

It's easy to look at Quinn's game log and see that he had 6G 11A in 28GP before new year's and then 2G 1A in the 14GP since then, and think he's stalling or he's inconsistent.

However, while his iG/60 dipped from 0.9 to 0.79 from then to now, his ixG/60 and iCF/60 have both gone up.  He's actually creating more and better chances.  So what's really going on?  What's changed?  Let's scan the stats.  The first number is from the beginning of the season up to new year's day.  The second number is since then.

• CF/60 55.63 -> 58.70 (no change)
• CA/60 52.02 -> 55.93 (no change)
• GF/60 3.97 -> 1.98 (big drop in actual goals for)
• GA/60 3.07 -> 1.98 (big drop in actual goals against)
• xGF/60 3.19 -> 3.13 (no change in expected goals for)
• xGA/60 2.43 -> 2.54 (no change in expected goals against)
• HDCF/60 13.19 -> 14.28 (not much change)
• HDCA/60 9.03 -> 11.50 (not much change)
• Giveaways/60 1.45 -> 1.59 (no change)
• Takeaways/60 1.81 -> 2.78 (huge improvement)

 

Three things stand out.

1. The offense of his line (xGF/60) is steady, but pucks aren't going in (GF/60).  But his individual offense (ixG/60) is up and his individual goal scoring (iG/60) hasn't dropped that much.  The high danger offense number (HDCF/60) haven't changed.  His giveaways aren't changing.  It might be someone else's fault.  Let's come back to this.
2. The defense of his line (xGA/60 and HDCA/60) is steady, but they are being scored against much less (GA/60).  My money's on better goal tending or better performance from defense behind them.
3. He's getting more engaged on defense.  His takeaways are wayyy up.  We see this also with Cozens (1.45 -> 2.24) and Peterka (0.96 -> 1.53).  This is a Don-Teaches-the-Fundamentals outcome: the kids are improving their individual man-on-man defense and becoming better fundamental hockey players.  

 

But why aren't the pucks going in?  One note is that his linemates are giving the puck away a little more.  Peterka's giveaways/60 are way up (0.83 -> 1.91).  Cozens' are up slightly (0.58 -> 0.75).  Let's check the rest.

Cozens

• CF/60 57.25 -> 55.65 (no change)
• CA/60 55.37 -> 57.37 (no change)
• iG/60 1.01 -> 0.75 (down a bit)
• ixG/60 1.10 -> 0.92 (no change)
• iCF/60 14.17 -> 13.45 (no change)
• GF/60 3.47 -> 1.49 (down a good bit; these line stats are similar to Quinn)
• GA/60 3.61 -> 1.87 (down a good bit; these line stats are similar to Quinn)
• xGF/60 3.02 -> 3.25 (very good, now 2nd on team)
• xGA/60 2.72 -> 3.09 (not much change)
• HDCF/60 12.14 -> 13.82 (not much change)
• HDCA/60 11.42 -> 16.06 (suddenly worst on team)

 

Peterka

• CF/60 54.32 -> 62.35 (up quite a bit)
• CA/60 53.35 -> 66.48 (up quite a bit)
• iG/60 0.96 -> 0.00 (obviously down a lot)
• ixG/60 0.69 -> 0.78 (up a little bit)
• iCF/60 12.38 -> 15.3 (up a little bit)
• GF/60 3.44 -> 1.53 (down a good bit, same as Cozens and Quinn)
• GA/60 3.3 -> 2.29 (down a good bit, same as Cozens and Quinn)
• xGF/60 2.9 -> 3.41 (suddenly up and now leads team; this is phenomenally high, approx 37th in the league over the same period for regular forwards)
• xGA/60 2.69 -> 2.47 (not much change)
• HDCF/60 12.51 -> 14.15 (not much change)
• HDCA/60 11.55 -> 12.24 (not much change)

 

It looks like Cozens is sacrificing high danger chances against (HDCA/60) a bit in favor of what should be all three players getting blistering amounts of expected goals for (xGF/60).  And that's in addition to the higher giveaways by Cozens and Peterka.  Because actual GA/60 is down, the increased reliance on goaltending is working for now.  But the expected goals-for haven't been finding the back of the net.

I'm almost positive this line is in a dam-is-ready-to-burst condition.  I expect a breakout game or games coming for one or all three players.  The fact that Peterka has elite offensive production with zero goals in absolutely unsustainable.

 

 

Nice analysis.  Hoping you're right and that whole crew is on the verge of breaking out.

Personally view it in simpler terms.  (Which by definition misses a fair amount of nuance.)  They've gotten tougher matchups since Mittelstat's line got bumped & eventually converted to Jost's line.  They'll break through soon, as they get a smidge better.  But getting Jost's line treated as the 2 could be the difference between the Kids breaking out and truly tearing it up.

[IKnowPhysics]

3 minutes ago, Taro T said:

Nice analysis.  Hoping you're right and that whole crew is on the verge of breaking out.

Personally view it in simpler terms.  (Which by definition misses a fair amount of nuance.)  They've gotten tougher matchups since Mittelstat's line got bumped & eventually converted to Jost's line.  They'll break through soon, as they get a smidge better.  But getting Jost's line treated as the 2 could be the difference between the Kids breaking out and truly tearing it up.

Respectfully, the usage charts haven't showed a significant difference in quality of competition for any of the lines.  There's been a little bit of zone start play (Skinner/Thompson/Tuch in the Ozone and Okposo-Girgensens in the Dzone), but the kids haven't been subjected to that.  I think the rise of Mitts-Jost-Olofsson has helped the team tons of ways, but I don't think it's hurt the kids... except...

What I do think may have changed is the defense.  Before and after new year's, the ratio of Cozens' time split among defensive pairs has changed:

Dahlin 40% -> 26%

Power 43% -> 39%

Lyubushkin 17% -> 35%

So the kids have been playing with the 3rd pair D twice as much as they used to, and most of it came out of their Dahlin time.

 

[Norcal]

Hes figuring it out, you can see it every night.

Hes gonna score 20 points from here to the end of season. 

 

[Thorner]

The fact we are pretty good and Quinn and Peterka aren’t, really, yet is one of the most positive developments of the season bar none 

2 minutes ago, IKnowPhysics said:

Respectfully, the usage charts haven't showed a significant difference in quality of competition for any of the lines.  There's been a little bit of zone start play (Skinner/Thompson/Tuch in the Ozone and Okposo-Girgensens in the Dzone), but the kids haven't been subjected to that.  I think the rise of Mitts-Jost-Olofsson has helped the team tons of ways, but I don't think it's hurt the kids... except...

What I do think may have changed is the defense.  Before and after new year's, the ratio of Cozens' time split among defensive pairs has changed:

Dahlin 40% -> 26%

Power 43% -> 39%

Lyubushkin 17% -> 35%

So the kids have been playing with the 3rd pair D twice as much as they used to, and most of it came out of their Dahlin time.

 

The Dahlin effect cannot be ignored, ever 

He’s That Guy

[IKnowPhysics]

Away from the math, Quinn might be my favorite player on the team right now.  His vision, passing, stick handling, shooting, creativity, and awareness are all fantastic and fun to watch.  Especially his creativity- this kid is smart.  His footspeed needs work to become elite, as does his tenaciousness defending the opposing puck carrier.  But damn is it fun to see him work in space in the offensive zone.

[Quint]

I expect ten more goals the rest of the season. 

[IKnowPhysics]

17 minutes ago, Thorny said:

The Dahlin effect cannot be ignored, ever 

He’s That Guy

True.  Dahlin's putting up 0.57 5v5 iG/60, 3rd in the league.  Next best Sabres D is 0.13.  Primary assists are 0.63 (13th in league) vs Power's 0.39.  You either get that extra half goal and assist per game on your shift or you don't.

[Taro T]

47 minutes ago, IKnowPhysics said:

Respectfully, the usage charts haven't showed a significant difference in quality of competition for any of the lines.  There's been a little bit of zone start play (Skinner/Thompson/Tuch in the Ozone and Okposo-Girgensens in the Dzone), but the kids haven't been subjected to that.  I think the rise of Mitts-Jost-Olofsson has helped the team tons of ways, but I don't think it's hurt the kids... except...

What I do think may have changed is the defense.  Before and after new year's, the ratio of Cozens' time split among defensive pairs has changed:

Dahlin 40% -> 26%

Power 43% -> 39%

Lyubushkin 17% -> 35%

So the kids have been playing with the 3rd pair D twice as much as they used to, and most of it came out of their Dahlin time.

 

When the Mittelstadt line was being listed as the 2nd line they were getting a lot of the 3rd pairing du jour (as a big part of that was during the injured D stretch) & not much of Dahlin.  When they got bumped down, Cozens line inherited that pairing usage.  With Granato doing a lot of simple line rotation, it isn't like he matches lines a lot but he does to a degree.  (Particularly on the 1st rotation of the game & then usually of the other periods.)  But he does have significantly difference deployments in 5 man units as you noted.