Home record

[triumph_communes]

16 hours ago, LGR4GM said:

Where's your evidence that's what this team does?

Their own social media lol

[Doohicksie]

On 2/2/2023 at 12:28 PM, bunomatic said:

Should have included home cookin. That would include the wifey/girlfriend/video game distractions.

fify

[SwampD]

Could the answer be as simple as the schedule?

[Marvin]

3 minutes ago, SwampD said:

Could the answer be as simple as the schedule?

How do you mean?

[Taro T]

3 minutes ago, SwampD said:

Could the answer be as simple as the schedule?

Very possibly.

[WhenWillItEnd66]

A bit of all the above??

- Youngs kids but there are enough Vets in the lineup.... how many it too much or not enough (Vet wise)

- not much in crowd support unless it is a special day, When they are there though, team seems to respond

- Granato still has not figured out how to get the team to respond to a heavy forecheck (May link to team being young) Coaches need to learn too, right?

[SwampD]

1 minute ago, Marvin said:

How do you mean?

Our home opponents may simply have been tougher.

[pi2000]

12 minutes ago, SwampD said:

Could the answer be as simple as the schedule?

No, it's goaltending. 

Home:  107 GA,  86 xGA, .880 SV%, .777 HDSV%
Away:  85 GA,  92 xGA, .905 SV%, .840 HDSV%

The team actually plays "better" at home....  54% CF at home vs 49% on the road.... that's the 4th best CF% at home.

The goaltending sucks, 3rd worst SV% at home in the entire league. 

Edited February 22, 2023 by pi2000

[Marvin]

1 minute ago, pi2000 said:

No, it's goaltending. 

Home:  107 GA,  86 xGA, .880 SV%, .777 HDSV%
Away:  85 GA,  92 xGA, .905 SV%, .840 HDSV%

Holy crap!  What a difference.  How much of that is the play in front of the goalkeepers?  And how much is on goalkeeping?

[pi2000]

1 minute ago, Marvin said:

Holy crap!  What a difference.  How much of that is the play in front of the goalkeepers?  And how much is on goalkeeping?

I updated the post with CF%... Buffalo actually as the 4th best CF% at home in the entire league... and 29th SV%. 

[SwampD]

1 hour ago, pi2000 said:

No, it's goaltending. 

Home:  107 GA,  86 xGA, .880 SV%, .777 HDSV%
Away:  85 GA,  92 xGA, .905 SV%, .840 HDSV%

The team actually plays "better" at home....  54% CF at home vs 49% on the road.... that's the 4th best CF% at home.

The goaltending sucks, 3rd worst SV% at home in the entire league. 

Where do you get this data?

[Weave]

1 hour ago, SwampD said:

Where do you get this data?

[SwampD]

4 minutes ago, Weave said:

😂

Yeah. I wanna see it.

[pi2000]

1 hour ago, SwampD said:

Where do you get this data?

https://www.naturalstattrick.com/

[SwampD]

Just now, pi2000 said:

https://www.naturalstattrick.com/

Thanks.

[pi2000]

2 minutes ago, SwampD said:

Thanks.

They have home/away goalie stats as well if you want to see who specifically is sucking.....

Home:
Anderson: 2.87 GA/60, 3.06 xGA/60, .919sv%
UPL: 4.09 GA/60, 2.47 xGA/60, .876sv%
Comrie: 3.76 GA/60, 2.47 xGA/60, .863sv%

Out of 54 goalies who have played >400min on home ice, UPL and Comrie rank 49th and 52nd in save percentage.   Anderson 13th.   

That said on the road, out of 72 goalies who have played >300min (Comrie has played 391 min on the road), UPL ranks 21st, Anderson 24th and Comrie 47th in save percentage.   

Comrie is pretty much trash both home and away.   

WRT save percentage UPL ranks in the top 3rd of the league on road, and nearly DFL at home.     

Why is he so bad at home, where the team is actually playing better in front of him?

On the road UPL faces 34 shots/60, and 14 high danger chances/60... at home he faces 33 shots/60 and 12 high danger chances/60.

And yet his sv% is nearly 4 percentage points better on the road (.912 vs .876). 

Maybe it's a young goalie thing?  Too many nerves at home perhaps?

[Marvin]

13 minutes ago, pi2000 said:

They have home/away goalie stats as well if you want to see who specifically is sucking.....

Home:
Anderson: 2.87 GA/60, 3.06 xGA/60, .919sv%
UPL: 4.09 GA/60, 2.47 xGA/60, .876sv%
Comrie: 3.76 GA/60, 2.47 xGA/60, .863sv%

Out of 54 goalies who have played >400min on home ice, UPL and Comrie rank 49th and 52nd in save percentage.   Anderson 13th.   

That said on the road, out of 72 goalies who have played >300min (Comrie has played 391 min on the road), UPL ranks 21st, Anderson 24th and Comrie 47th in save percentage.   

Comrie is pretty much trash both home and away.   

WRT save percentage UPL ranks in the top 3rd of the league on road, and nearly DFL at home.     

Why is he so bad at home, where the team is actually playing better in front of him?

On the road UPL faces 34 shots/60, and 14 high danger chances/60... at home he faces 33 shots/60 and 12 high danger chances/60.

And yet his sv% is nearly 4 percentage points better on the road (.912 vs .876). 

Maybe it's a young goalie thing?  Too many nerves at home perhaps?

That is a great question.  This is so glaring that you have to think the issue is mental.

[Taro T]

17 minutes ago, Marvin said:

That is a great question.  This is so glaring that you have to think the issue is mental.

Helloooooo.

[Porous Five Hole]

I have no stats to back this up. I’m just wondering if our coaching staff is more conservative with on-game lineup decisions on the road (first change) than at home?

And at home they’re being more aggressive for offense first and it is backfiring?

Like I said, I have no data. I wouldn’t know where to start. But it’s one of the only on-ice differences and it would be interesting to know how things vary between in-game line starts Home v Away. 

[Contempt]

On 2/2/2023 at 3:32 PM, K-9 said:

Casey’s couch.

[IKnowPhysics]

Two words.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

NICHOLAS ***** PICHOLAS

[Goldseatsaud]

The building built on hazardous materials. Sanborn Fire Insurance Map. 

[mjd1001]

13 hours ago, Porous Five Hole said:

I have no stats to back this up. I’m just wondering if our coaching staff is more conservative with on-game lineup decisions on the road (first change) than at home?

And at home they’re being more aggressive for offense first and it is backfiring?

Like I said, I have no data. I wouldn’t know where to start. But it’s one of the only on-ice differences and it would be interesting to know how things vary between in-game line starts Home v Away. 

When the guys are on the road, they have curfews that are enforced more, they spend more time together with just a team/coaching staff.  At home they spend too much time sitting around on the couch, late nights playing Xbox with each other.     Is that it? probably not, but its all I have now for a guess.

Edited February 23, 2023 by mjd1001

[Thorner]

22 hours ago, SwampD said:

Our home opponents may simply have been tougher.

I ran the numbers on this a week or so ago and the records were almost identical. 
 

but it’s more so WHEN you play a team - the differential in home / away isn’t large enough over a large enough amount of games yet for me to rule out it simply being a product of randomness - happened to play wrong teams wrong time at home a bit more, to your point

looks like GT also a notable difference as mentioned above. I don’t know if that means the goalies are putting up inferior numbers at home in combination with us playing worse defensively as a team ie more high danger chances but goalies certainly bare their share

goalies / team D relatively lacking at home still doesn’t answer the question of why, though. That’s just the what. Why are aspects of our team worse at Home, specifically? Again, could be randomness/happen to be the games we are catching guys sniping 

Edited February 23, 2023 by Thorny

[Quint]

The Hockey Guy says that if the Sabres don't make it to this year's playoffs, it's because of the home record. I agree.