Timo Meier rumour - Sabres contact Sharks

[dudacek]

21 minutes ago, Weave said:

For too long I watched excellent but expensive players like Vanek, Pominville, etc get traded away from us for magic beans.  I have no loyalty towards the magic beans we are now in possession of.  Some of them will shine, some will not be all we hoped.  Some will wither and die.  I’d gladly consider a couple of our magic beans as partial payment towards a legit high end player that improves the team.  No hesitation.

$10M per year though.  KA would have to have a solid plan regarding how to manage that impact.  I suspect it would mandate that at least one of our decent non core players be moved for nothing immediate to accommodate Meier’s contract when Dahlin, Power, Cozens come due.

To be clear, a $10 million qualifying offer does not mean a $10 milion long-term contract.

What that qualifying offer does is give Meier an extra hammer when it comes to negotiating his next contract, whether its with San Jose, or whatever team they grant a negotiating window to. Management has to add one year at $10 million into the calculation of whatever offer they think is fair.

Brock Boeser was in a similar window last summer when he was an RFA one year away from UFA. He had a $7.5 qualifier but signed a 3-year $6.6 million deal.

Tkachuk just got $9.5 and Rantanen $9.2 and they are at the top of the list of "power forward" type wingers.

I'm thinking his contract with term probably starts with an $8.

 

 

 

Edited January 26, 2023 by dudacek

[tom webster]

One other thing, just because the qualifying offer has to be $10M does not mean his new contract has to be. 
On the other hand, Buffalo is one of the few teams able to afford the $10M next year. They could, in theory, agree to pay him the $10M next year and sign him to an extension in January of 2024.

[Turbo44]

27 minutes ago, Mustache of God said:

Maybe the Sharks GM, former Sabres legend Mike Grier is actually sleeper agent and this is a long con to improve the Sabres. Karlsoon + Meier for Mitts + Ben Bishop and a 2nd round pick. Who says no?

SJ says no.  I think it would take a 1st, Quinn (I'm not giving up Peterka) and a lesser prospect (I'm not giving up Kulich)

[Pimlach]

52 minutes ago, inkman said:

 

 

These are the reactions I was expecting.  I don’t want to give up these assets either but these fairy tale proposals where we just offer assets we don’t really care about (ie. Mittlestadt, Olofsson, Östlund, draft picks down the road, Rosen) are mind numbing.  At least one of the things going to SJ will hurt.  Whether it’s Quinn, Peterka, this years 1st, Kulich, or Savoie. One of them has to be included unless the SJ GM is a puddle of poo.   

Sure, one piece can hurt, two pieces can hurt, but not all 3.  This years #1, Quinn, and Kulich is three first round pieces.  Quinn and Kulich are already looking like they will be very good NHL players.  Meir makes too much money on top of that.  
 

I just read his agent is Claude Lemueix.  Another factor against us in the negotiations.  

Edited January 26, 2023 by Pimlach

[Contempt]

11 hours ago, inkman said:

If I’m SJ, I’m asking for this years 1st, Jack Quinn and Juri Kulich 

Lol. He never gets that. Ever. From anyone.

[inkman]

9 minutes ago, Contempt said:

Lol. He never gets that. Ever. From anyone.

It’s not going to be for Olofsson and a 2024 1st

[Doohicksie]

2 hours ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

His qualifying offer is $10 million.  Has KA shown any indication he is will to fork over that $ contract long-term to someone who wasn't developed here, who he isn't sure will be a fit here?  He has been very clear he wants to lock up his core - TNT, Cozens, Dahlin, Mule and Power.  He is also clear that he isn't bringing in rentals.    I just don't see it.  

He would qualify for one year and then take it from there, I think.  I've heard speculation that for longer term security, Meier may go for a lower cap hit.

[MattPie]

27 minutes ago, Turbo44 said:

SJ says no.  I think it would take a 1st, Quinn (I'm not giving up Peterka) and a lesser prospect (I'm not giving up Kulich)

This is probably close to what I'd look for too in SJ's shoes. The Sabres do seem to have a lot of scoring forwards in the pipeline, so the trade *almost* makes sense if not for the money involved. The Sabres will eventually need to start flipping a couple shooters for D and bigger forwards to balance things a little.

[LGR4GM]

42 minutes ago, Turbo44 said:

SJ says no.  I think it would take a 1st, Quinn (I'm not giving up Peterka) and a lesser prospect (I'm not giving up Kulich)

Why?

[dudacek]

15 minutes ago, inkman said:

It’s not going to be for Olofsson and a 2024 1st

To my way of thinking it's pretty similar to the Sabres/Avs ROR trade in 2016. Meier is a similar level player in a similar contract situation.

• Zadorov ---> mid-first pick living up to that ---> Östlund
• Grigorenko ---> mid-first pick looking less than that ---> Rosen
• Compher ---> recent high 2nd pick --> Poltapov
• 2nd ---> high 2nd ---> Philly's 2nd

The Sabres also got Jamie McGinn, so factor that in as you will.

If a Savoie or a Kulich is on the table, then one of the other parts probably gets dropped.

Edited January 26, 2023 by dudacek

[Mr. Allen]

I’m curious as to what Olofsson’s value is around the league.  There’s gotta be teams that view his goal scoring ability pretty high.  
I know he doesn’t have Meier value, but he’s also just not a throw in.  

[Skibum]

Of course I'd love to see Meier on the team, but his asking price would go a lot farther toward veteran blue-line depth and goaltending, which it seems to me are bigger issues with the Sabres right now, no?

[SabresBillsFan]

10 minutes ago, Skibum said:

Of course I'd love to see Meier on the team, but his asking price would go a lot farther toward veteran blue-line depth and goaltending, which it seems to me are bigger issues with the Sabres right now, no?

^ This. If you give up a first, Rosen or Östlund, Johnson or Portillo then ok. But I’m keeping Peterka, Quinn and Kulich. I think the Sabres could use another solid defenseman before Timo Meier.

Edited January 26, 2023 by SabresBillsFan

[lothar]

7 minutes ago, Skibum said:

Of course I'd love to see Meier on the team, but his asking price would go a lot farther toward veteran blue-line depth and goaltending, which it seems to me are bigger issues with the Sabres right now, no?

I think the one needed element he'd provide is physicality without a loss of scoring touch. I can't remember a game where the Sabres outhit an opponent. It's the kind of grit required when the team eventually makes them playoffs.

But to your point, a 3/4 RHD is perhaps a bigger need. 

Edited January 26, 2023 by lothar

[Stads]

12 hours ago, inkman said:

If I’m SJ, I’m asking for this years 1st, Jack Quinn and Juri Kulich 

Too rich for my blood. I would love Timo on the roster, but I am too enamored with the current group to mess around with it

[SabresBillsFan]

5 minutes ago, Stads said:

Too rich for my blood. I would love Timo on the roster, but I am too enamored with the current group to mess around with it

This is how I feel but they could really use a solid defenseman.

[nfreeman]

1 hour ago, NJhopelessSabresfan66 said:

This is a hard one. He is 1 billion % what the Sabres need. IS the price to high for him? I honestly do not think so. He has a proven record of the last few years worth of work to show what he can do. The big thing is SJ going to allow to talk to him to confirm a long term contract, he WANTS to be here, and bring him in at a decent contract. We do NOT have this type of player in the system right now. So getting someone like him in a trade is our best bet.

 

I agree with all of this and would just add that a contract extension needs to be part of the deal or else I'm not interested, and I'd expect KA feels the same way.

 

1 hour ago, tom webster said:

For the record, he’s a strong, tough to play against forward with elite skill but at 6’1”, big might not be the word I would use.

 

I still don’t think they end up getting him but three things I believe to be absolutes.

1) Quinn and JJP aren’t going anywhere.

2) Cozens play has them thinking they can speed up this process by giving him an elite, experienced winger and moving JJP or Quinn to Jost line

3) All 3 of last year’s picks are in play as well as Rosen and I wouldn’t be shocked if any of them are included in any deal.
 

Well, he is 220 lbs.  That's a big forward even if he's not 6'4".

Otherwise I think you are probably right on all of this and I should have included Savoie in my post as a potential trade chip.

 

1 hour ago, Eleven said:

Obviously, from my comments in the Dallas game thread, I am of the opinion that the Sabres have an impending salary cap problem.  If the Sharks want to do a rental deal as if Meier was becoming a UFA, I'd consider it, but I don't think SJ is up for that.  I don't think the Sabres can afford to pick him up.

This does raise the question of how many big contracts the Sabres can realistically afford.  They've got TT and Skinner right now, with Cozens and Dahlin due this summer, likely at about $8MM or so for Cozens and $9.5MM or so for Dahlin.  If Meier gets $8.5MM or so (as others have noted a $10MM QO doesn't mean his long-term contract will cost $10MM per year), that's $42MM per year for 5 guys -- so about $40MM left over for the other 18 guys on the roster, with plenty of guys due for raises in the near term. 

 

11 minutes ago, dudacek said:

To my way of thinking it's pretty similar to the Sabres/Avs ROR trade in 2016. Meier is a similar level player in a similar contract situation.

• Zadorov ---> mid-first pick living up to that ---> Östlund
• Grigorenko ---> mid-first pick looking less than that ---> Rosen
• Compher ---> recent high 2nd pick --> Poltapov
• 2nd ---> high 2nd ---> Philly's 2nd

The Sabres also got Jamie McGinn, so factor that in as you will.

If a Savoie or a Kulich is on the table, then one of the other parts probably gets dropped.

I think SJ is going to require a better-than-Zadorov roster player and a #1 as part of the deal.

 

7 minutes ago, Mr. Allen said:

I’m curious as to what Olofsson’s value is around the league.  There’s gotta be teams that view his goal scoring ability pretty high.  
I know he doesn’t have Meier value, but he’s also just not a throw in.  

This is interesting.  Olofsson has value now as a goal-scorer on a reasonable contract, plus he can likely be flipped for a #1 either this summer or at the deadline next year.

So maybe:  Olofsson, Savoie and a top-3 protected 2023 #1? 

[Pimlach]

26 minutes ago, dudacek said:

To my way of thinking it's pretty similar to the Sabres/Avs ROR trade in 2016. Meier is a similar level player in a similar contract situation.

• Zadorov ---> mid-first pick living up to that ---> Östlund
• Grigorenko ---> mid-first pick looking less than that ---> Rosen
• Compher ---> recent high 2nd pick --> Poltapov
• 2nd ---> high 2nd ---> Philly's 2nd

The Sabres also got Jamie McGinn, so factor that in as you will.

If a Savoie or a Kulich is on the table, then one of the other parts probably gets dropped.

More recent data. We got Tuch, Krebs, a protected 1, and a 2 for Eichel.   3 equivalent 1’s plus a 2, and we sent a pick back with Eichel too. 
 

If Meier is 75% of Eichel, then they should get approx 2 equivalent 1’s and a 2 .  Not 3 equivalent 1’s   

Östlund or Rosen, a protected 2023 # 1, and next years 2 should be ok. His contract is another problem that should favor us in negotiating them down.  

 

[Stads]

9 minutes ago, SabresBillsFan said:

This is how I feel but they could really use a solid defenseman.

Defensive, Offensive, or well rounded? Also, who would like to be replaced?

[Pimlach]

5 minutes ago, Stads said:

Defensive, Offensive, or well rounded? Also, who would like to be replaced?

Replace Bryson of course.  
 

Add size and mobility.  
 

Either get another 5/6 to pair with Looby, or get a 4 for Power and move then Joker to 3rd pair with Looby.  The later would be a very strong unit.  
 

Bryson goes to 7.  Clague to Rochester.  

Edited January 26, 2023 by Pimlach

[SabresBillsFan]

3 minutes ago, Pimlach said:

Replace Bryson of course.  
 

Add size and mobility.  
 

Either get another 5/6 to pair with Looby, or get a 4 for Power and move then Joker to 3rd pair with Looby.  The later would be a very strong unit.  
 

Bryson goes to 7.  Clague to Rochester.  

^ This

[Brawndo]

That’s very doable for McCabe 

[LGR4GM]

20 minutes ago, Brawndo said:

That’s very doable for McCabe 

Im not trading a 1st for McCabe. The latest 2nd we have and a B level guy, sure. 

[Eleven]

9 minutes ago, Brawndo said:

That’s very doable for McCabe 

It is.  Gonna start a trade speculation thread to catch stuff like this.

[GASabresIUFAN]

While I doubt this trade will occur, I will say that the timing would be appropriate.  At the time of the ROR trade, I thought the deal was premature because we hadn’t really developed a core or an identity.  That’s not true at this point.  We are nominally in a playoff spot.  Have a core group and an identity.  We also have a deep forward pipeline, but no one in the system who plays like Meier.  If KA thinks that getting Meier would make us a legit contender, then he should go for it.

I think a partner for Power is a more pressing need, but Meier would be a good addition.