2023-24 Sabres Early Thoughts

[JohnC]

56 minutes ago, Taro T said:

No, have said elsewhere that my expectation is they get a 4D.  He'll probably be what people consider a budget signing similar to grabbing Lydman but expecting he'll be useful also like Lydman.   Expect there'll be something else on D brought in.  Hoping that guy is a 5/6 but it could be another Clague.

Didn't look that closely at the goalie projection.  Have no idea what Adams does there.  But until he fixes goaltending, he hasn't fixed it.

What high end goalie would be on the market that our GM could make a surprising deal for? I believe it was @dudacekwho suggested that maybe Nashville would be willing to trade Saros if their franchise decided to go through some sort of rebuild. I'm ambivalent about giving up a high-end prospect such as Savoie to get a deal done . But the reality is that adding a high caliber of goalie to this roster would be transformative. 

 

[Thorner]

Love Savoie, my favourite prospect. I’d swap him for Saros without a moment’s hesitation.

[thewookie1]

21 minutes ago, Thorny said:

Love Savoie, my favourite prospect. I’d swap him for Saros without a moment’s hesitation.

I wouldn't but would certainly be tempted. (Saros expires in 2 years and is great on a team with solid defensive play)

[Thorner]

11 minutes ago, thewookie1 said:

I wouldn't but would certainly be tempted. (Saros expires in 2 years and is great on a team with solid defensive play)

So much more value found in severely aiding the team on ice in the next 2 seasons while TT Skinner Tuch and Dahlin are all going off than sitting on an asset we already have an abundance of that likely won’t provide much value in those 2 seasons. I do not care at all that Saros expires in 2 years, the arm-chair GMing has jumped the shark. It’s *really, really ok* to concentrate on the next 2 critical years, I promise you. How many years on this planet does everyone think they get? People just toss out time like it’s *nothing* when it’s the most important asset, sports or otherwise.

Be good in the next 2 years. Have fun. Sign Saros along the way, or move on to Levi after in stride.

Or horde prospects and posts links to prospect pool rankings detailing a future that as of yet hasn’t ever arrived 

It’s a prospect. In the hypothetical it’s a prospect for a no-bones-about-it starter among the league’s best when it’s BY FAR our biggest need and people be like “nope” 

[Crusader1969]

Teams Top prospects are very rarely if ever traded 

I doubt you’d have to give up savoie or kulich

chrychrun was traded for draft picks.  The Sabres could / should do the sam, maybe they have to  add a mid tier prospect to get a deal done 

I do like  the idea of going after Saros.  

[Thorner]

11 minutes ago, Crusader1969 said:

Teams Top prospects are very rarely if ever traded 

I doubt you’d have to give up savoie or kulich

chrychrun was traded for draft picks.  The Sabres could / should do the sam, maybe they have to  add a mid tier prospect to get a deal done 

I do like  the idea of going after Saros.  

Like I said, he’s my favourite prospect - if we could acquire a guy like Saros and keep him, all the better. But, you’re right: you don’t, often, see a team move their top prospect. Which is to say, presumably if we need to, we could beat any competing offer and avoid the “well, we tried” fallback and instead get our guy, then, by dealing it. What a fortunate position to be in then! Near the top of the league in goals scored. A position of such strength. Boston is having one of the best seasons of all time. Of all time. We have 2 less goals. We don’t actually need more goals. And what with our cap, so optimally positioned to make that move, if necessary. 

Im honestly glad you said the “don’t usually see top prospect move” thing cause it helped me wrap my head around it even further. “What could KA have even done?” Need not apply again, really, no? If we have that tradeable asset other teams just won’t trade / don’t have.

like you said hopefully the deal doesn’t take a Savoie. I do feel, though, that Savoie shouldn’t be an obstacle that prevents a deal for a player of that caliber SHOULD they become available 

[Randall Flagg]

Definitely trying to harness the power of positive thinking with Saros, if we say it enough it will happen

Just the perfect option - stylistically similar to Levi, 2 years left in his deal (or 3?) - the perfect amount of time to develop Levi properly and hand him the reigns, and it will be like nothing changed as far as what defenders/forwards expect their goalie to do. Nashville going through big changes in the front office, might want to reset, we have all the assets in the world to send them

[Flashsabre]

Demko might be available. Has had a down year with injuries but has looked good since coming back. 27 years old is the goalie sweet spot. Don’t know what Vancouver's plans are in the summer.

[French Collection]

2 minutes ago, Flashsabre said:

Demko might be available. Has had a down year with injuries but has looked good since coming back. 27 years old is the goalie sweet spot. Don’t know what Vancouver's plans are in the summer.

I would much prefer Saros but Demko could be a fallback idea. He would come cheaper after a down year. Canucks are weird, may take less than his value if the package intrigues them.

[dudacek]

32 minutes ago, Thorny said:

Like I said, he’s my favourite prospect - if we could acquire a guy like Saros and keep him, all the better. But, you’re right: you don’t, often, see a team move their top prospect. Which is to say, presumably if we need to, we could beat any competing offer and avoid the “well, we tried” fallback and instead get our guy, then, by dealing it. What a fortunate position to be in then! Near the top of the league in goals scored. A position of such strength. Boston is having one of the best seasons of all time. Of all time. We have 2 less goals. We don’t actually need more goals. And what with our cap, so optimally positioned to make that move, if necessary. 

Im honestly glad you said the “don’t usually see top prospect move” thing cause it helped me wrap my head around it even further. “What could KA have even done?” Need not apply again, really, no? If we have that tradeable asset other teams just won’t trade / don’t have.

like you said hopefully the deal doesn’t take a Savoie. I do feel, though, that Savoie shouldn’t be an obstacle that prevents a deal for a player of that caliber SHOULD they become available 

Been having the goalie conversation with a Canuck fan buddy, who is buying in to the current hype in this market that the Canucks could get 2 1sts and a top prospect for Thatcher Demko.

Was trying to burst his bubble so I looked up the best-ever returns in a goalie trade in the last decade or more:

• Roberto Luongo for Jacob Markstrom and Shawn Matthias
• Ryan Miller for the 25th pick and Will Carrier (roughly)
• Martin Jones (!) for the 13th pick and Sean Kuraly
• Robin Lehner for the 21st pick
• Corey Schneider for the 9th pick

Could not find another deal that netted a 1st-round value.

So goalies rarely cost too much - just once have they ever netted a Savoie quality prospect, and that was straight across, Schnieder for Bo Horvat

Luongo and Miller were elite Saros-quality goalies when they moved. The other three were younger and generally considered emerging studs.

 

Edited March 11, 2023 by dudacek

[dudacek]

The other thing is that it’s been a long time - 2015 - since a goalie was moved for even as much as a first.

NHL GMs seem very untrusting and gunshy these days when it comes to trading for goalies.

Edited March 11, 2023 by dudacek

[Crusader1969]

Plus Saros only has 2 more years left on his deal, that would bring the price down significantly 

they could also go the UFA route 

under 30s years of age:

Aiden Hill, Korpisalo, Jarry 

Over 30:

Andersen, Talbot, Varlamov, Raanta

[Flashsabre]

49 minutes ago, Crusader1969 said:

Plus Saros only has 2 more years left on his deal, that would bring the price down significantly 

they could also go the UFA route 

under 30s years of age:

Aiden Hill, Korpisalo, Jarry 

Over 30:

Andersen, Talbot, Varlamov, Raanta

I would add Gibson and Demko as possibilities.

[Taro T]

15 minutes ago, Flashsabre said:

I would add Gibson and Demko as possibilities.

Rumors are Adams was close to landing Gibson in the past but he refused to waive his NTC/NMC to come to Buffalo.  Considering how much Adams stresses only bringing in guys that want to be in Buffalo, pretty sure that ship has sailed.

[GASabresIUFAN]

Fixing the defense is the top priority.  All 3 goaltenders need to go, but no goalie can succeed here (except Ullmark), without fixing the D and the forwards commitment to back checking.  

 KA has needed to add veteran leadership to the D for two years and the need is even greater now.  If the vet doesn’t partner with Power, than getting a partner for Power is the top priority after that.   

[thewookie1]

13 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

Fixing the defense is the top priority.  All 3 goaltenders need to go, but no goalie can succeed here (except Ullmark), without fixing the D and the forwards commitment to back checking.  

 KA has needed to add veteran leadership to the D for two years and the need is even greater now.  If the vet doesn’t partner with Power, than getting a partner for Power is the top priority after that.   

Really the issue with vet Dmen is they either want absurd contracts or are almost surely going to go the way of Gorges

[GASabresIUFAN]

6 minutes ago, thewookie1 said:

Really the issue with vet Dmen is they either want absurd contracts or are almost surely going to go the way of Gorges

It doesn’t have to be a 35 year old player.  It can be a 29 year old guy with 500+ games of experience, hopefully with good teams.  Entering this season, Dahlin, 22, was our most experienced D with 277 games played. Joki, 23, was next at 213.

What I’m hoping for is the modern equivalent of adding Teppo and Lydman like DR did in 2005.  NJ added Marino and Hamilton the last two seasons. 

[Thorner]

1 hour ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

Fixing the defense is the top priority.  All 3 goaltenders need to go, but no goalie can succeed here (except Ullmark), without fixing the D and the forwards commitment to back checking.  

 KA has needed to add veteran leadership to the D for two years and the need is even greater now.  If the vet doesn’t partner with Power, than getting a partner for Power is the top priority after that.   

Don’t really get what people mean when they say no goalie can “succeed” here without upgrading the D. What does that mean? They can’t put up Vezina numbers? Well, ya, I agree. But like... rosters... players.. teams..they don’t operate on an “all or nothing” plane.

our goalies aren’t “good”. They aren’t even “average”. Bringing in a “good” or “great” goalie wouldn’t represent a magic wand that solves all the issues - but since when is getting *more* saves and a few *more* points a bad thing? Since when is good the enemy of great? Even after upgrading the D, we’d be looking at needing better goaltending. The numbers clearly suggest we had below average tending made terrible by team D, not good GT made terrible 

just upgrade both 

Edited March 11, 2023 by Thorny

[Taro T]

26 minutes ago, Thorny said:

Don’t really get what people mean when they say no goalie can “succeed” here without upgrading the D. What does that mean? They can’t put up Vezina numbers? Well, ya, I agree. But like... rosters... players.. teams..they don’t operate on an “all or nothing” plane.

our goalies aren’t “good”. They aren’t even “average”. Bringing in a “good” or “great” goalie wouldn’t represent a magic wand that solves all the issues - but since when is getting *more* saves and a few *more* points a bad thing? Since when is good the enemy of great? Even after upgrading the D, we’d be looking at needing better goaltending. The numbers clearly suggest we had below average tending made terrible by team D, not good GT made terrible 

just upgrade both 

And expect a modicum of restraint from the forwards before bolting the zone when the other team has the puck.  Not saying abandon the high scoring high pace style of play they've adopted; It won't take much more focus on playing sound defensively to see significant improvements in goals given up once those upgrades are made.  And they have on rare occassion shown glimpses of playing sound in their own end.  But they almost never do it 2 games in a row.  Am really curious as to why they occassionally do play sound defensively?  Is it coaching or is it simply their years of having played hockey that sometimes playing the way they'd been coached to play until getting here just comes bubbling to the surface?

[Marvin]

Besides #4D and #1G, the most important changes for next year must be the introduction of a full defencive structure rather than the loose pursuit thing the Sabres play now.  That will cure a lot of our defencive woes from this season.

[Stoner]

32 minutes ago, Marvin said:

Besides #4D and #1G, the most important changes for next year must be the introduction of a full defencive structure rather than the loose pursuit thing the Sabres play now.  That will cure a lot of our defencive woes from this season.

How is it possible this is lacking in an NHL team?

[French Collection]

31 minutes ago, Marvin said:

Besides #4D and #1G, the most important changes for next year must be the introduction of a full defencive structure rather than the loose pursuit thing the Sabres play now.  That will cure a lot of our defencive woes from this season.

What would support that structure would be a couple of vets (maybe the 4D) that hold the rest accountable.

“Hey kid, you’ve got to pay the price on that play in order to get the puck out” 

“Don’t chase, that will leave a hole they will exploit.”

Is Ryan McDonagh still a 4D? He’s 34 but has a winning pedigree and leadership qualities. He’s the type I’m looking for to partner with Power. McDonagh at 29 years old.

[Thorner]

2 minutes ago, PASabreFan said:

How is it possible this is lacking in an NHL team?

Like others have said, I think it’s by choice. We are scoring among the very top of the league’s teams - we aren’t among the league’s best teams. Other teams don’t have to sacrifice so much D to put up the offence they do. Coaching has seemed to actively prioritize enhancing our goal scoring even to the detriment of play the other way. I have no idea why, others can field answers, but I do think it’s happening 

this is why I kept pointing to the goal differential, which is closer to mid pack, when others kept saying our F group was set: some of the raw offence is in effect a mirage in the sense we need to play an unsustainable system to achieve it. The differential is a better overall indicator: we are much improved, but still ~ middle, roster wise. Internal growth, as well as outside additions, will be what we need to climb further up the ranks 

[Flashsabre]

2 hours ago, Thorny said:

Don’t really get what people mean when they say no goalie can “succeed” here without upgrading the D. What does that mean? They can’t put up Vezina numbers? Well, ya, I agree. But like... rosters... players.. teams..they don’t operate on an “all or nothing” plane.

our goalies aren’t “good”. They aren’t even “average”. Bringing in a “good” or “great” goalie wouldn’t represent a magic wand that solves all the issues - but since when is getting *more* saves and a few *more* points a bad thing? Since when is good the enemy of great? Even after upgrading the D, we’d be looking at needing better goaltending. The numbers clearly suggest we had below average tending made terrible by team D, not good GT made terrible 

just upgrade both 

Just look at that graphic that was posted in one of the threads here. All 3 Sabres goalies are in the top 10 for high danger area chances faced. They are not getting a fair chance.

Team defence needs to be improved. If our goalies played behind Boston or the Isles structured defensive systems then their numbers would be so much better.

Bringing Saros in won’t help turn them into contenders if hey don’t commit to playing D and cut down on the amount of high danger chances they give up.

Edited March 11, 2023 by Flashsabre

[Thorner]

5 minutes ago, Flashsabre said:

Just look at that graphic that was posted in one of the threads here. All 3 Sabres goalies are in the top 10 for high danger area chances faced. They are not getting a fair chance.

Team defence needs to be improved. If our goalies played behind Boston or the Isles strutted defensive systems then their numbers would be so much better.

Bringing Saros in won’t help turn them into contenders if hey don’t commit to playing D and cut down on the amount of high danger chances they give up.

Yes. They are. You don’t just isolate one stat and call it a day - this is exactly the point of my post. 

the exact same people who are coming up with the stat that tells you Comrie is facing more high danger shots than others, break down the same numbers to tell you Comrie is saving WELL below expected *on those chances*. And on the chances that aren’t high danger. You don’t get to cherry pick one stat. 

it’s both. It’s definitively both. No, a good goalie won’t make them instant contenders on his own. No one is saying this, though - maybe we can bury that particular straw man 

Edited March 11, 2023 by Thorny