2023-24 Sabres Early Thoughts

[GASabresIUFAN]

Honestly, do the Sabres need Z or KO any longer? Besides leadership what does either player objectively offer?  Our PK is terrible.  Z's pts/g are down year over year.  KO's are down significantly.  

Greenway was just brought in to bring a physical presence and improve the PK at half the price we are paying KO.  The team's leadership is now falling on the shoulder of Dahlin, TNT, Cozens, and Tuch.

Krebs has also proven to be pretty feisty and with Savoie and Kulich (who have both been on fire of late) coming soon, we may need the roster spots as early as next season.

KA's decisions on both players may come down the stretch and how they perform in the playoffs (if we make it).

Admittedly I can see both returning, but rationally it's probably time to move on from both.  

[Carmel Corn]

8 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

Honestly, do the Sabres need Z or KO any longer? Besides leadership what does either player objectively offer?  Our PK is terrible.  Z's pts/g are down year over year.  KO's are down significantly.  

Greenway was just brought in to bring a physical presence and improve the PK at half the price we are paying KO.  The team's leadership is now falling on the shoulder of Dahlin, TNT, Cozens, and Tuch.

Krebs has also proven to be pretty feisty and with Savoie and Kulich (who have both been on fire of late) coming soon, we may need the roster spots as early as next season.

KA's decisions on both players may come down the stretch and how they perform in the playoffs (if we make it).

Admittedly I can see both returning, but rationally it's probably time to move on from both.  

Strongly disagree with you on Z.  IMHO - Z has had a very effective season, playing a style that our young guns do not have.  Z is hard to play against and I'm not looking for a lot of point production, but rather somebody who willingly goes into the hard places and puts pressure on the opposition.  

[dudacek]

If I was building a team from scratch, I’d actively look for guys like Zemgus on my fourth line.

Big and fast, hard-to-play against, relentless on the cycle, diligent on the backcheck, versatile, kills penalties, can be trusted against other team’s top lines, shows up every day, sets a good example: he ticks most of the boxes.

Hope he is re-signed.

Edited March 5, 2023 by dudacek

[mjd1001]

15 minutes ago, Carmel Corn said:

Strongly disagree with you on Z.  IMHO - Z has had a very effective season, playing a style that our young guns do not have.  Z is hard to play against and I'm not looking for a lot of point production, but rather somebody who willingly goes into the hard places and puts pressure on the opposition.  

I agree 100%.  Girgensonss plays the 4th line role really well, and as bad as the Sabres penalty killing is, when you watch the goals they allow on the PK, it rarely is his fault.  I mentioned this in a previous post, but it agrees the Sabres are 'exposing' some of the younger guys to PK to either see how they do with it, or to give them experiene with it.  They make mistakes.  Zemgus rarely does when he is out there.

I'm not a huge beleiver that stats tell the entire story with PK, because one person who is not you can cause a goal when you did nothing wrong, but if you even try to find stats to back this up, Zemgus has the best goals allowed per 60 on the PK of any forward on this team this year.  Hes hard to play against, he is good at penalty killing, and while you can't count on him for offense, his production with relation to his ice time is at least equal to a typical 4th liner around the league.

Okposo I like, but it does appear that he is slowing down quite a bit this year. I don't want to force him out, but I think by next year, a younger guy could take his place and give you a bit more production than Klye at this point.

[Broken Ankles]

1 hour ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

Honestly, do the Sabres need Z or KO any longer? Besides leadership what does either player objectively offer?  Our PK is terrible.  Z's pts/g are down year over year.  KO's are down significantly.  

Greenway was just brought in to bring a physical presence and improve the PK at half the price we are paying KO.  The team's leadership is now falling on the shoulder of Dahlin, TNT, Cozens, and Tuch.

Krebs has also proven to be pretty feisty and with Savoie and Kulich (who have both been on fire of late) coming soon, we may need the roster spots as early as next season.

KA's decisions on both players may come down the stretch and how they perform in the playoffs (if we make it).

Admittedly I can see both returning, but rationally it's probably time to move on from both.  

Since January 1st the PK support by KO and Z has been excellent.  There is almost and equal split of TOI between forwards Jost, Krebs, Kyle and Zemgus. The HD goals with KO and Z are zero, with 3 goals against in ~30 minutes.   Jost and Krebs have 4 HDGA and 9/6 Goals against.   Perhaps D pairings affected these numbers but these two players grind.  On 5/5 these two have the best HDGF percentages on the team.  Sure, they don’t have a +19 like Skinner, but definitely the lowest GA per 60 minutes played.   And it’s been stated here many times, the Jost/KO/Z line or as individuals are seeing more 5/5 TOI than any Non defensive skaters except Tage, Skinner, Tuch and Casey. (And full props to you for the fact Mitts is entrusted with this kind of ice time).   But as they transition to a true 4th line role, and Dylan, JJP, Quinn start seeing more 5/5 TOI, if the AAV is right, I want them back.  

Edited March 5, 2023 by Broken Ankles

[Crusader1969]

1 hour ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

Honestly, do the Sabres need Z or KO any longer? Besides leadership what does either player objectively offer?  Our PK is terrible.  Z's pts/g are down year over year.  KO's are down significantly.  

Greenway was just brought in to bring a physical presence and improve the PK at half the price we are paying KO.  The team's leadership is now falling on the shoulder of Dahlin, TNT, Cozens, and Tuch.

Krebs has also proven to be pretty feisty and with Savoie and Kulich (who have both been on fire of late) coming soon, we may need the roster spots as early as next season.

KA's decisions on both players may come down the stretch and how they perform in the playoffs (if we make it).

Admittedly I can see both returning, but rationally it's probably time to move on from both.  

I’ll say yes to Girgs and no to KO.  Think KO retires but will rejoin the Sabres in some capacity (coach or front office) 

if they really think Greenway is a top 6 player, then all they need to do this summer is fine KO’s replacement my guess is it will be Savoie to start the season

Skinner.  Thompson  Tuch

Mitts.  Cozens.  Greenway

JJP.     Krebs.     Quinn

Girgs.  Jost.   Savoie

Savoie and greenway could flip depending on the game

next year. I would hope JJP,Krebs and Quinn can double their output 

which has me thinking that you might flip Krebs and Cozens above as well 

[DarthEbriate]

1 hour ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

Honestly, do the Sabres need Z or KO any longer? Besides leadership what does either player objectively offer?  Our PK is terrible.  Z's pts/g are down year over year.  KO's are down significantly.  

Greenway was just brought in to bring a physical presence and improve the PK at half the price we are paying KO.  The team's leadership is now falling on the shoulder of Dahlin, TNT, Cozens, and Tuch.

Krebs has also proven to be pretty feisty and with Savoie and Kulich (who have both been on fire of late) coming soon, we may need the roster spots as early as next season.

KA's decisions on both players may come down the stretch and how they perform in the playoffs (if we make it).

Admittedly I can see both returning, but rationally it's probably time to move on from both.  

Whether Okposo is back or not is up to him. His scoring is down this season because he's a 4W with little to no PP time. Last season pre-Tuch and during VO's midseason wrist/hand injury he was a PP and top-6W. He's lost another step, but he's also still an effective grinder. And the bonus is next season he probably either re-signs for something in the $2M area like a matching Girgs deal.

Remember, if you strike Old Dad Kposobi down (via retirement) he will become more powerful than you can possibly imagine. And the Sabres will win the Cup shortly thereafter, as the spirit of Kposobi guides Tuch to nail the game-winner on a perfect shot.

[GASabresIUFAN]

16 minutes ago, Crusader1969 said:

I’ll say yes to Girgs and no to KO.  Think KO retires but will rejoin the Sabres in some capacity (coach or front office) 

if they really think Greenway is a top 6 player, then all they need to do this summer is fine KO’s replacement my guess is it will be Savoie to start the season

Skinner.  Thompson  Tuch

Mitts.  Cozens.  Greenway

JJP.     Krebs.     Quinn

Girgs.  Jost.   Savoie

Savoie and greenway could flip depending on the game

next year. I would hope JJP, Krebs and Quinn can double their output 

which has me thinking that you might flip Krebs and Cozens above as well 

Roster construction is a weird thing.  Back in the day, Edm and LA put guys like Dave Semenko and McSorley on Gretzky's line.  However, I doubt they put Savoie on the team in anything but a scoring role.  It would otherwise be a waste of his talent.  I also don't think he makes the team next season either.  If Kulich and Savoie don't play in Buffalo next year, their contract slide again.  This would give us essentially 4 more years on both players.  That said, KA was pretty clear that if they are ready they will play.  

I see a top 6 next year of Skinner - TNT - Tuch and Mitts - Cozens - Quinn.  MItts and Cozens have developed some nice quick chemistry and I don't think it's a coincidence that VO's production has fallen without Mitts.  

After that, it's going to be who shows chemistry with whom.  I'd even experiment with JJP Krebs and Greenway.  Greenway's forechecking should help create room for Krebs to create and JJP to finish.  Then you might return KO with Jost and Z for an energy line.

The more I think about this the tougher KA's job is sorting out the forwards, especially if Savoie and Kulich prove ready.  If they make the team who do you ship out?  He's certainly not giving up on JJP after one season.  Mitts has come on in the second half.  He has 3g and 13a in his last 22 games (+1) and 3g 8a in his last 11 games (+3).   He looks like he is becoming a fixture in the top 6 and with one year left on his deal, KA can extend the evaluation period another year.  VO is under contract.  KO and Z are leaders and Pkers, but UFAs.  Jost (RFA) has proven he's good depth at center and Krebs is earning DG's trust and has one more year on his ELC.

Too much talent is a good thing, but it makes the GM's job very difficult.

 

 

Edited March 5, 2023 by GASabresIUFAN

[GASabresIUFAN]

I've added a poll question to see who we think makes the opening night roster next fall.

I've assumed Tuch, Thomspon, Skinner, Cozens, Dahlin, Power, and Samuelsson are on the opening roster next season.

Edited March 5, 2023 by GASabresIUFAN

[GASabresIUFAN]

Bold summer prediction.

KA will trade Jokiharju and Olofsson over the summer to raise assets to help KA get a better partner for Power (and or goaltending) and then they'll run with the Malachi Bros (Stillman and Lyubushkin) as the third pair. 

For example, maybe we can work a deal with LV to get Theodore from them for Joki and Rosen.

[Cheektorado]

4 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

Bold summer prediction.

KA will trade Jokiharju and Olofsson over the summer to raise assets to help KA get a better partner for Power (and or goaltending) and then they'll run with the Malachi Bros (Stillman and Lyubushkin) as the third pair. 

For example, maybe we can work a deal with LV to get Theodore from them for Joki and Rosen.

None of KO, Vinnie or Middlestadt will start the season for the Sabres.

This is bold and I'm sure not popular, but VO starts the season.  I don't think he gets moved until JJP or one of the prospects moves him during the season.  I have no idea what the goaltenders will look like.  1 middle D will get added in FA.

[Crusader1969]

1 hour ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

I've added a poll question to see who we think makes the opening night roster next fall.

I've assumed Tuch, Thomspon, Skinner, Cozens, Dahlin, Power, and Samuelsson are on the opening roster next season.

I’ll say Savoie stays with the  Sabres through December.  Then to team canada camp and the WJC. 
Then they will see where he is at. If he needs more time , he goes back to WHL. 
much like Krebs , this season,  he plays 4th line minutes to learn to be a pro, while with Buffalo 

Kulich is the first call up from Rochester 

 

[irregularly irregular]

It's really makes me kind of excited and a bit nervous to think about how much talent might not have a spot on the 2023-24 roster. There are going to be some very good hockey players not seeing NHL ice time with the Sabres next year. At the same time there are some holes that make you wonder how they are going to be filled. There will be some talent leaving in order to properly fill those holes. KA is going to have to give up something to get something and surprises might occur. Things like giving away Asplund at the deadline will hopefully provide good karma for future deals. I see only about 7-8 current Sabres who are untouchable at the moment and several talented guys looking to push the others down the roster or out the door. 

[Thorner]

1 hour ago, Crusader1969 said:

I’ll say Savoie stays with the  Sabres through December.  Then to team canada camp and the WJC. 
Then they will see where he is at. If he needs more time , he goes back to WHL. 
much like Krebs , this season,  he plays 4th line minutes to learn to be a pro, while with Buffalo 

Kulich is the first call up from Rochester 

 

So Savoie will be the best option to aid our playoff push through the 1st 3 months of the season, but yet mid year we ship him out to the WJC, to the detriment of the roster? 

If Savoie sticks in camp it’s because it’s best for the team, now, so I would be operating by those same terms mid way.

On another note, does anyone have the underlying metrics on Girgensons? Not doubting his aptitude but I’ve only seen eye test arguments made in his favour 

id guess they’d be pretty reasonable? No actual idea truthfully though 

Edited March 5, 2023 by Thorny

[sweetlou]

As much as Girgs enjoys being the vet one the team, I think he walks as an UFA.  His wife is from Pittsburgh, and they will need bottom six players. I also think he will maybe like Pitts chances to get to playoffs rather than a young Buffalo team.

KO will probably be given one more year at a reduced salary around $2million.

VO, Joker, and Bryson are the 3 players that need to be upgraded or at least be replaced with players that play a different style.

 

Another rugged winger who can score 15-20 goals but hits everything in sight for VO.

A steady stay at home RD for Power.  Mayfield, Schenn, or Severson are UFA's that KA should pursue. 

I honestly think that UPL and Comrie would be ok if the defense in front of them was better.

 

[Flashsabre]

One UFA Dman I would be interested in is Graves from NJ. 6’5, 220 lbs plays a strong defensive game. He and Lyubushkin would be a solid 3rd pairing. Would help with the PK. NJ will have cap problems if they want to sign Meier and they have Hughes coming so Graves will probably be let go.

I think any long term partner for Power will have to come through a trade. Or you could eventually test out Johnson there if he signs.

Edited March 6, 2023 by Flashsabre

[Turbo44]

6 hours ago, Crusader1969 said:

I’ll say yes to Girgs and no to KO.  Think KO retires but will rejoin the Sabres in some capacity (coach or front office) 

if they really think Greenway is a top 6 player, then all they need to do this summer is fine KO’s replacement my guess is it will be Savoie to start the season

Skinner.  Thompson  Tuch

Mitts.  Cozens.  Greenway

JJP.     Krebs.     Quinn

Girgs.  Jost.   Savoie

Savoie and greenway could flip depending on the game

next year. I would hope JJP,Krebs and Quinn can double their output 

which has me thinking that you might flip Krebs and Cozens above as well 

I think kulich is more Sabre ready than savoie.

[LGR4GM]

3 hours ago, Crusader1969 said:

I’ll say Savoie stays with the  Sabres through December.  Then to team canada camp and the WJC. 
Then they will see where he is at. If he needs more time , he goes back to WHL. 
much like Krebs , this season,  he plays 4th line minutes to learn to be a pro, while with Buffalo 

Kulich is the first call up from Rochester 

 

Once they burn his elc year, they won't be sending him back to juniors. 

[Carmel Corn]

I think Mitts is back next year.  Better numbers (points and +/-).  He's just half the cost of Victor and is also an RFA after next season.  If Victor is still around next season, maybe he is a trade deadline move.

[Crusader1969]

43 minutes ago, Turbo44 said:

I think kulich is more Sabre ready than savoie.

Might be right but Kulich can play in the AHL, that will be the deciding factor 

[Crusader1969]

2 hours ago, Thorny said:

So Savoie will be the best option to aid our playoff push through the 1st 3 months of the season, but yet mid year we ship him out to the WJC, to the detriment of the roster? 

If Savoie sticks in camp it’s because it’s best for the team, now, so I would be operating by those same terms mid way.

On another note, does anyone have the underlying metrics on Girgensons? Not doubting his aptitude but I’ve only seen eye test arguments made in his favour 

id guess they’d be pretty reasonable? No actual idea truthfully though 

I’d put money on it that he will be playing in the WJC next season.  Lent out by the Sabres.  
happens all the time 

Dylan Guenther and Shane wright are examples this year 
 

[Thorner]

11 minutes ago, Crusader1969 said:

I’d put money on it that he will be playing in the WJC next season.  Lent out by the Sabres.  
happens all the time 

Dylan Guenther and Shane wright are examples this year 
 

Guenther plays on the tanking coyotes 

Shane Wright played 8 games 

[Crusader1969]

8 minutes ago, Thorny said:

Guenther plays on the tanking coyotes 

Shane Wright played 8 games 

You think then that he will have another season in the CHL?  There’s aren’t a lot of choices 

[Crusader1969]

11 minutes ago, Thorny said:

Guenther plays on the tanking coyotes 

Shane Wright played 8 games 

Also Brandt Clarke.  

[Thorner]

9 minutes ago, Crusader1969 said:

You think then that he will have another season in the CHL?  There’s aren’t a lot of choices 

I just think that if he’s good enough to stick until December, considering our F depth, in a year where playoffs are the goal, that means he’s playing pretty darn well. The rookies who are excelling usually *don’t* get loaned to the WJC. I really think next season team success is the primary priority. If we keep him up after 9 and he’s really hitting a wall, sure, loan him 

6 minutes ago, Crusader1969 said:

Also Brandt Clarke.  

He played 9 games total. 

The stipulation you used was Savoie was with the Sabres though December. I don’t really see that happening if not based on merit. We aren’t running a dev camp next season. 

if he’s playing well I’m not loaning him, plain and simple. He’d be an NHLer

Edited March 6, 2023 by Thorny