2023-24 Sabres Early Thoughts

[tom webster]

21 minutes ago, Flashsabre said:

The Sabres had $17.1 million in space this year.

Next year Tage, Cozens And Muel kick in for about $19 combined.

They lose Bishop, Okposo’s deals and if VO and Comrie are moved that is about $18 combined.

The following year is when Dahlin and Power extensions would kick in.  People are hoping Dahlin Signs for $9.5 or so. He is already making $6 so you would be adding $3-4. Power will be the bi addition at that time. Then Tuch will be coming up. 

At some point you might need to look at Skinner’s $9 and see about moving it out.

They are not in bad shape but the money will dry up quick if guys like Quinn take that next step.

They their top three forwards, Tage, Dylan and Tuch locked up for the next three years for less than $20M. Unless they completely screw up they will not have cap issues for the foreseeable future. I don’t know any other way to put it. They will be able to afford any additions they deem necessary.

[Flashsabre]

12 minutes ago, tom webster said:

They their top three forwards, Tage, Dylan and Tuch locked up for the next three years for less than $20M. Unless they completely screw up they will not have cap issues for the foreseeable future. I don’t know any other way to put it. They will be able to afford any additions they deem necessary.

I agree. Adams is very careful with his future cap knowing it will dry up with all the young guys maturing but they are in a very good spot.

[Crusader1969]

31 minutes ago, tom webster said:

They their top three forwards, Tage, Dylan and Tuch locked up for the next three years for less than $20M. Unless they completely screw up they will not have cap issues for the foreseeable future. I don’t know any other way to put it. They will be able to afford any additions they deem necessary.

How much is Tom Wilson costing you ? Would you agree Dahlin and Power are going to combine for about $18mill? 

Edited April 21, 2023 by Crusader1969

[Crusader1969]

1 hour ago, Crusader1969 said:

How much is Tom Wilson costing you ? Would you agree Dahlin and Power are going to combine for about $18mill? 

I think we are debating two different things. 

I'm saying you can't afford him in 2024/25 but (I think) you are saying they can afford him next year - which is 100% the case.

[Buffalonill]

Tom Wilson is 1 Suspension away from a year off.

Why any of you want that scumbag is beyond me 

[LabattBlue]

34 minutes ago, Crusader1969 said:

I think we are debating two different things. 

I'm saying you can't afford him in 2024/25 but (I think) you are saying they can afford him next year - which is 100% the case.

Are you arguing with yourself? 😂

[Crusader1969]

1 minute ago, Buffalonill said:

Tom Wilson is 1 Suspension away from a year off.

Why any of you want that scumbag is beyond me 

cause he hits things...

Assuming KO and Girgs come back and they bring back Jost, I'll be very surprised if a forward outside of the organization is brought it.  They have so many forwards in Rochester that are close to being NHL ready and only 2 spots available..Oloffson and Vinny.

[Crusader1969]

4 minutes ago, LabattBlue said:

Are you arguing with yourself? 😂

i just might be 🙂

[Brawndo]

2 hours ago, tom webster said:

They their top three forwards, Tage, Dylan and Tuch locked up for the next three years for less than $20M. Unless they completely screw up they will not have cap issues for the foreseeable future. I don’t know any other way to put it. They will be able to afford any additions they deem necessary.

With apologies to Botterill going over the cap with Simmons and Kahun, I believe there is a very good reason Mark Jakubowski has remained employed as the Sabres Cap Guru since GMTM was here 

[LTS]

1 hour ago, Crusader1969 said:

cause he hits things...

Assuming KO and Girgs come back and they bring back Jost, I'll be very surprised if a forward outside of the organization is brought it.  They have so many forwards in Rochester that are close to being NHL ready and only 2 spots available..Oloffson and Vinny.

You should also add that he scores as well.  Wilson brings offense and size, that's something you take a chance on.

The worry about Wilson being suspended cannot be dismissed but players do clean up their game. The Bruins seem to be doing okay with Marchand.

 

[Taro T]

12 hours ago, French Collection said:

If the Sabres get .900 sv% goaltending next year, they will cut their goals against by 24.

Presuming they don't cut down on the shots against.  (Expecting that to be a poor assumption as IMHO they will likely play a tighter defensive game in zone (though do believe they will give up a bit of a higher percentage of high danger chances relative to total shots allowed).)

Personally, should they stay reasonably healthy again next year and get NHL caliber goaltending (not even GOOD NHL goaltending), which with the team being so young overall is reasonable to expect, am expecting them to have comparable GF totals next year relative to this year and lower the GA by at least 30 and likely 40.  (Yes, expect this team to drop the GA by nearly 0.5 GPG next year.)

[French Collection]

2 hours ago, Taro T said:

Presuming they don't cut down on the shots against.  (Expecting that to be a poor assumption as IMHO they will likely play a tighter defensive game in zone (though do believe they will give up a bit of a higher percentage of high danger chances relative to total shots allowed).)

Personally, should they stay reasonably healthy again next year and get NHL caliber goaltending (not even GOOD NHL goaltending), which with the team being so young overall is reasonable to expect, am expecting them to have comparable GF totals next year relative to this year and lower the GA by at least 30 and likely 40.  (Yes, expect this team to drop the GA by nearly 0.5 GPG next year.)

I’ll buy that.

Levi level goaltending, better PK and an attitude similar to the end of season run that it’s OK to grind out a 3-2 win can help them hit those numbers.

Adding a Graves and another experienced Dman will help a lot too.

[Flashsabre]

https://bostonhockeynow.com/2023/04/21/boston-bruins-facing-hefty-salary-cap-penalty/

[DarthEbriate]

1 hour ago, Thorny said:

My current guess for how it unfolds, notably sans Olofsson:

Skinner - Thompson - Tuch 

Peterka - Cozens - Quinn

Mittelstadt - Krebs - Greenway

Girgensons - Jost/FA/Trade - FA/Trade

New Rookie/Rousek

Samuelsson - Dahlin

Power - Jokiharju

Stillman - Lyubushkin/FA/Trade

FA/Trade

Levi

UPL

- - - 

I likely see 1, maybe 2 depth, role-player adds to the bottom of the F unit. Probably a RW replacement for KO. I don’t see the Rookie I listed as the actual 13th man: if that listed rookie option makes the team after a 9-ish game tryout, we probably see at most 1 new outside depth F addition and possibly as few as 0. 

As to the D, I think we see one, 6/7 type add, for sure, and certainly not zero, but very likely not more than 1.

Goaltending, the more I’ve thought about it probably gets run back (from the end of the season). 

It’ll be a quiet offseason. We likely make all of our picks, and add a couple with VO (look for KA to add a 3rd for this year to further replace our own (though we do have the Kings 3rd, currently) and perhaps a 5th to replace next season’s), and the addition of another Jost and another Lyubushkin level player to their respective positions. I think KA would be open to additions slightly better than the mentioned 4th liner and 6th/7th d-man, but that no betrayal of his valuation will take place: he won’t overpay slightly to get a solidly 3rd line, middle pair D player. If we can get that instead, great, but he’ll sooner add the 2 depth pieces with metrics to the tune of them presumably thinking they can unlock that “one line UP” level, with those players, internally/through system fit. 

Quoting @Thorny from the "Thanks, VO" thread. I think they get that UFA 4D this offseason and that VO will be moved for 2024-2025 picks -- 2nd + 4th or something. He's got value as a goal-scorer.

Lines are by 5-on-5 ice time, before anyone gets too upset at the order. Remember, I expect the Sabres to be protecting a bunch of 3rd period leads in 2023-24. The other player I can easily see moved or forced to 13th F is Jost, who is solid but not a defensive face-off artist. He's talented, but just can't break into a top 6 and could bounce to yet another team before he becomes good at being a bottom 6 center.

Skinner - Thompson - Tuch 
Mittelstadt - Cozens - Quinn
Greenway - Krebs - Girgensons or KO
Peterka - Jost - Rousek/Savoie

Samuelsson - Dahlin
Power - 4D
Jokiharju - Lyubushkin
(Stillman)

Levi
UPL

Clears waivers: Bryson, Comrie

[Brawndo]

2 hours ago, Flashsabre said:

https://bostonhockeynow.com/2023/04/21/boston-bruins-facing-hefty-salary-cap-penalty/

15 players signed and 5 million in cap space, better win that cup this year. 

[GASabresIUFAN]

3 minutes ago, Brawndo said:

15 players signed and 5 million in cap space, better win that cup this year. 

They won't be re-signing Orlov.  Go get him Adams!

[Taro T]

6 minutes ago, Brawndo said:

15 players signed and 5 million in cap space, better win that cup this year. 

Give the Sabres Swayman for UPL and we can take Reilly off their hands.  ;)

Would fix about 1/2 of that cap overage issue.

Edited April 22, 2023 by Taro T

[DarthEbriate]

2 hours ago, Flashsabre said:

https://bostonhockeynow.com/2023/04/21/boston-bruins-facing-hefty-salary-cap-penalty/

Unfortunately, 4.5M isn't all that big a penalty if Bergeron returns and plays for 2.5M again, incentive-laden or not.

Think of it this way: Bergeron and Krejci combined to make 3.5M this season + the incentives that impact next season. That's still only $8M for both of them. If they were both to come back next season and do the same ridiculously underpaid + incentives contract they'd still be criminally low on the cap.

The only team getting better value out of their top 2 centers this season was Buffalo.

[DarthEbriate]

4 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

They won't be re-signing Orlov.  Go get him Adams!

Most of these folks won't reach UFA, but tier-wise here's who I'd prefer. 2-4 tier means I'd at least check them with Dahlin before settling with Power:

2/4 tier: Orlov, Graves, Gavrikov

4/5 tier: Soucy, Dumba, Mayfield, Clifton

And I'd also consider the 5/6/7 veteran tier: someone like a Schenn or Braun would be cheap and provide playoff know-how. The Sabres have space to overpay on a 2-year deal.

[sweetlou]

Some simple questions for KA?

Do you want Girgs back, or do you sign a Miles Wood or Nick Ritchie.

Who is your 4th line center who can win you face-offs, good on PK and play physical?  Luke Glendening, Colton Sissons, or Noel Acciari.

Better d options?  Clifton, Murphy, Graves, Schenn, Gudas, Soucey, or Mikkola.

[Buffalonill]

19 hours ago, LTS said:

You should also add that he scores as well.  Wilson brings offense and size, that's something you take a chance on.

The worry about Wilson being suspended cannot be dismissed but players do clean up their game. The Bruins seem to be doing okay with Marchand.

 

Wilson is a disgusting human do you honestly want this guy  Potentially ending someone's career on buffalo? 

[Weave]

1 hour ago, Buffalonill said:

Wilson is a disgusting human do you honestly want this guy  Potentially ending someone's career on buffalo? 

Better it happens as a Sabre than to a Sabre.

Edited April 22, 2023 by Weave

[mjd1001]

20 hours ago, LTS said:

You should also add that he scores as well.  Wilson brings offense and size, that's something you take a chance on.

The worry about Wilson being suspended cannot be dismissed but players do clean up their game. The Bruins seem to be doing okay with Marchand.

 

I love Wilson as a hockey player.  Think he can make any team that has him a lot better, including the Sabres.  

I don't really like or condone how he gets that done though.  Would love to have him on my team, but I think the NHL is better overall if guys like him weren't around.

[Rasmus_]

Wilson has been a bit of a dud due to injuries the past few seasons.  He's getting to that age, where he's going to slowly fall off a cliff.

 

[DarthEbriate]

1 hour ago, Rasmus_ said:

Wilson has been a bit of a dud due to injuries the past few seasons.  He's getting to that age, where he's going to slowly fall off a cliff.

Yup -- the Milan Lucic to Edmonton deal. You want to find the next Tom Wilson. You want to find the next Marcus Foligno. Not get burdened by a +30 guy whose body is busted up and has lost a step and gets a NMC with a $5M salary and 4 years of term.