2023-24 Sabres Early Thoughts

[dudacek]

I believe the experience gained this year, coupled with the additions of Levi and to a lesser extent Greenway and Stillman is enough to put them in the playoffs next year if they come back with the same roster.

This does not mean it is what I would do, or what I think they will do.

They have holes to fill and the means to fill them. The goal for next year is not to make the playoffs, but to arrive as team that will contend for a long time.

[GASabresIUFAN]

21 minutes ago, SabresBaltimore said:

I'd like to see us improve at face offs too. I'd maybe put that 3rd (or 4th) on the priority list behind improving defense and goal tending. Ideally if we can get a good PK/shutdown center who is good on the dot in 1 player, that'd help a lot.

 

Cozens was our best FO guy, with a 48.3% win rate (45.6% in Defensive zone FOs). He lead the team in FO taken too, by a large margin with 1,174. Next closest was Tage with 813 (361 fewer Face Offs taken than Cozens, probably due to him moving around more).

 

Tage had 43.1% overall, with an abysmal 34.8 in DZFOs.

 

Mitts was 3rd with 736 taken for 45.9% (42.5% DZFOs) and Krebs 4th with 556 taken for 45.1% (42.9% DZFOs).

Jost was pretty terrible for his 428 taken: 38.3% won (36.1 DZFOs).

 

I hope all of them work on their face offs in the off-season. I think those numbers further make Jost expendable next year too.

  

NHL Face Off Stats (Sabres 22-23)

Can they hire Gaustad to teach them how to win a friggin faceoff.  

[Thorner]

17 hours ago, Buffalonill said:

He also posted rankings of draft prospects that i believe was buffalo list . 

In the end buffalo drafted those players 

He posted a list that the Sabres adhered to, to a T? 

[Buffalonill]

11 minutes ago, Thorny said:

He posted a list that the Sabres adhered to, to a T? 

  Someone posted it here  I can't find it.

 But on another message board they said he had the matt murray deal before It fell through .

 

[LabattBlue]

1 hour ago, dudacek said:

I believe the experience gained this year, coupled with the additions of Levi and to a lesser extent Greenway and Stillman is enough to put them in the playoffs next year if they come back with the same roster.

This does not mean it is what I would do, or what I think they will do.

They have holes to fill and the means to fill them. The goal for next year is not to make the playoffs, but to arrive as team that will contend for a long time.

Sorry, but if Stillman is part of the top 6 next season, the blue line has not been fixed. 
 

I will go one step further.  I don’t want Clague, Bryson or Stillman as my #7.  8 or 9 on the depth chart…fine, but these are not the guys who are one injury away from being in the lineup. 

Edited April 17, 2023 by LabattBlue

[Taro T]

1 hour ago, dudacek said:

I believe the experience gained this year, coupled with the additions of Levi and to a lesser extent Greenway and Stillman is enough to put them in the playoffs next year if they come back with the same roster.

This does not mean it is what I would do, or what I think they will do.

They have holes to fill and the means to fill them. The goal for next year is not to make the playoffs, but to arrive as team that will contend for a long time.

Yes Adams finally is at a point where he doesn't absolutely HAVE to do anything to have a good team.  But also believe he is smart enough to know that he has the team he has and understands what the holes are.  And that he very likely can fill those holes using only assets that aren't in the long term plans here &/or only cost cap space.  

His plan seems to be on the right track.  He followed it and he stuck to it.  He's gotten to this point without giving up any of the assets he does still see as fitting in to the LT picture.  (He actually has more assets at F than he'll be able to keep there in a couple of seasons, which means he can either move some for futures to keep the window open or for then current holes to increase the chances of doing damage while the window is open.)  Realize that many of us are frustrated with missing the playoffs again, and expect that Adams is frustrated by it too, but based on his background and what he's been saying for the past 2 years really believe that he doesn't see as much value in the players getting playoff experience this year as many here believe it has.

They beat playoff teams down the stretch when they were in desperation mode.  (They also lost to a couple.  It's what midlevel teams do.)  Expect Adams and Granato see the value in that and find that valuable enough of a teaching tool moving forward that a handful of playoff games wasn't worth what it would cost in other assets that he wants to keep.  (And interestingly, he was willing to give up something that he still has under his control for Chychrun.  Besides this year's 1st, curious what the other part(s) was (were).)

[French Collection]

2 hours ago, dudacek said:

I believe the experience gained this year, coupled with the additions of Levi and to a lesser extent Greenway and Stillman is enough to put them in the playoffs next year if they come back with the same roster.

This does not mean it is what I would do, or what I think they will do.

They have holes to fill and the means to fill them. The goal for next year is not to make the playoffs, but to arrive as team that will contend for a long time.

I was going to post something similar. If KA runs back the exact same roster this will be a playoff team. A full year of Levi, Greenway and Stillman should be enough to find a spot in the WC race. Internal improvement from all of the young guys will be another factor.

I think KA and his staff are smart enough to know what holes need plugging and who is not in the long term plans so there will be some changes.

My wish list is Varlamov and Graves as UFAs. I kind of think they run back the 3 goalies.

Trade VO and Bryson for a prospect RHD who is nearly ready to step up. LAK have a few of those.

[Stoner]

That wasn't a penalty.

[Brawndo]

From 32 Thoughts by Eliotte Friedman

12. Kyle Okposo’s exit interview made it sound like he might be retiring, but I don’t think that’s the case. Expectation is he’s going to play in 2023-24.

[GASabresIUFAN]

28 minutes ago, Brawndo said:

From 32 Thoughts by Eliotte Friedman

12. Kyle Okposo’s exit interview made it sound like he might be retiring, but I don’t think that’s the case. Expectation is he’s going to play in 2023-24.

He wasn't going to retire 16 games short on 1000 for his career.  He also needs 8 points for 600.  The question is will be here or elsewhere.  Odds favor KA wanting him to achieve that milestone in Buffalo.

[LabattBlue]

1 minute ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

He wasn't going to retire 16 games short on 1000 for his career.  He also needs 8 points for 600.  The question is will be here or elsewhere.  Odds favor KA wanting him to achieve that milestone in Buffalo.

I want to make the playoffs…not waste a roster spot on an over the hill vet…just to say “look how good we treated KO”. 

[GASabresIUFAN]

17 hours ago, LabattBlue said:

I want to make the playoffs…not waste a roster spot on an over the hill vet…just to say “look how good we treated KO”. 

I don't disagree, but we can carry up to 14 forwards (especially if we don't carry 3 goalies). My roster projection for next season, with just 13 forwards, includes one of KO or Z.  If management wants KO to be that one, I'm ok with it.  

The Sabres are trying to change the reputation of the team around the league to a good destination for FA's and trade targets.  Treating a universally respected player well is a PR gain toward that long-term goal.  Give him a one year $3 mill deal, rest him over the course of the season to try to keep him healthy and keep that leadership and professionalism in the locker room for one more year.

The forwards would look something like the following:

Skinner TNT Tuch

JJP Cozens Quinn

Savoie Mitts Greenway

Girgensons Krebs ???? (Jost & Okposo)

 

 

Edited April 18, 2023 by GASabresIUFAN

[...]

5 hours ago, LabattBlue said:

Sorry, but if Stillman is part of the top 6 next season, the blue line has not been fixed. 
 

I will go one step further.  I don’t want Clague, Bryson or Stillman as my #7.  8 or 9 on the depth chart…fine, but these are not the guys who are one injury away from being in the lineup. 

Agree on Clague and Bryson but disagree on Stillman. I thought he did well with us and I think he's a perfectly serviceable 5/6/7 D man.

[Buffalonill]

4 hours ago, Brawndo said:

From 32 Thoughts by Eliotte Friedman

12. Kyle Okposo’s exit interview made it sound like he might be retiring, but I don’t think that’s the case. Expectation is he’s going to play in 2023-24.

Hopefully his family says no is it worth risking your health? one more  Concussion could effect his life 

[...]

33 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

I don't disagree, but we can carry up to 14 forwards (especially if we don't carry 3 goalies). My roster projection for next season, with just 13 forwards, includes one of KO or Z.  If management wants KO to be that one, I'm ok with it.  

The Sabres are trying to change the reputation of the team around the league as a good destination for FA's and trade targets.  Treating a universally respected player well is a PR gain toward that long-term goal.  Give him a one year $3 mill deal, rest him over the course of the season to try to keep him healthy and keep that leadership and professionalism in the locker room for one more year.

The forwards would look something like the following:

Skinner TNT Tuch

JJP Cozens Quinn

Savoie Mitts Greenway

Girgensons Krebs ???? (Jost & Okposo)

Two things and I'll get the blasphemy out of the way first: I'm not enthusiastic over Savoie. 

The second thing, and really the important point for this thread, is that as much as I want to free up KO's roster slot, if you listened to those locker clean-out interviews each one of the players to a man talked about the culture, how comfortable they feel, how much they like coming to the rink. And between their remarks about KO, KO's remarks, and Meatball's remarks on KO, I am convinced that KO was like daddy/culture-czar in that room. 

There is absolutely no dismissing how important it is to have that atmosphere in there and my impression is that it took not only Meatballs doing his thing, KA cleaning house of the locker room cancers, but also KO putting his foot down and showing the way.

Is that worth giving the guy a shot at a final season of a glorious playoff run for ~$2.5mil for the year? I think so. I think KO has more to teach these guys and he can help make sure there are no embers of locker rooms past. If we carry two goalies there's room for him on the roster and still add a solid player to the third line.

 

 

[Doohicksie]

23 hours ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

He wasn't going to retire 16 games short on 1000 for his career.  He also needs 8 points for 600.  The question is will be here or elsewhere.  Odds favor KA wanting him to achieve that milestone in Buffalo.

21 hours ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

The Sabres are trying to change the reputation of the team around the league as a good destination for FA's and trade targets.  Treating a universally respected player well is a PR gain toward that long-term goal.  Give him a one year $3 mill deal, rest him over the course of the season to try to keep him healthy and keep that leadership and professionalism in the locker room for one more year.

Once he hits 1000/600 I could see him formally retiring in-season, if he's not an every day player anyway.  If he's not playing every day, that might not be until Christmas or even the All Star break.

Edited April 18, 2023 by Doohickie

[GASabresIUFAN]

10 minutes ago, Doohickie said:

Once he hits 1000/600 I could see him formally retiring in-season, if he's not an every day player anyway.

I've been evolving on the issue of KO.  In the last months of the season, I was in the camp of sending KO and Z packing.  I was and still sort of am in the bring in a Haula or Compher camp, but the Krebs discussion and Mitt's play at center down the stretch have me thinking more about keeping the status quo at forward and carrying 14 forwards for next season.  That means re-signing Jost, Z and KO for proven depth and that still leaves one open slot for a smart acquisition.  (Savoie also replaces VO).  This way we aren't relying on KO and Z to carry the freight of being the responsible forwards, but also keeps their experience and leadership on the team.  I really think KO would shine in the playoffs.

https://theathletic.com/4424414/2023/04/18/buffalo-sabres-kevyn-adams-offseason-questions/

The article does a nice job of spelling out the remaining issues with the roster for next year and how they could be addressed.

The six questions are

1. What happens in net?

2. What does the future hold for Victor Olofsson?

3. Will KO and Z return?

4. How will Buffalo upgrade its defense?

5. Will the Sabres clear the way for any other prospect? Rousek? Kulich? Savoie?

6. Can the Sabres get more extensions done? Dahlin & Power top the list.

Edited April 18, 2023 by GASabresIUFAN

[Doohicksie]

1 minute ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

I really think KO would shine in the playoffs.

Based on his performance down the stretch I'm convinced Mitts will be a monster in the playoffs (in a good way for the Sabres).

[mjd1001]

20 hours ago, ... said:

Agree on Clague and Bryson but disagree on Stillman. I thought he did well with us and I think he's a perfectly serviceable 5/6/7 D man.

I tend to agree.  When I miss a game (which I do on some occasions) I don't always rewatch the game but I do rewatch all the goals scored and the goals allowed, and if I am bored and have time I watch the replays of the goals allowed and try to look at what was the cause (goalie needed to make that save, someone losing a battle, a bad giveaway, out of position, etc.)  Even when Stillman was on the ice, he really didn't seem like he was the first or second degree of responsibility for goals being scored against us.

I have no idea really what the coaches are asking him to do, and on a shift-to-shift basis whether he is playing great or not. But, again, he didn't seem to be as much of a liability in his own end as some of the other D-men are (or at least half of the forwards are).

[mjd1001]

11 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

I've been evolving on the issue of KO.  In the last months of the season, I was in the camp of sending KO and Z packing.  I was and still sort of am in the bring in a Haula or Compher camp, but the Krebs discussion and Mitt's play at center down the stretch have me thinking more about keeping the status quo at forward and carrying 14 forwards for next season.  That means re-signing Jost, Z and KO for proven depth and that still leaves one open slot for a smart acquisition.  (Savoie also replaces VO).  This way we aren't relying on KO and Z to carry the freight of being the responsible forwards, but also keeps their experience and leadership on the team.  I really think KO would shine in the playoffs.

Bring Zemgus back.  KO, in a perfect world I'd like to see him retire and move on to someone else, but I also kinda agree with what you are saying.  Its not an awful thing to have him back.  Keep the forwards status quo (dependin on how the young guys developed this year and over the offseason) and just focus on improving this team on the backend.

If they come to camp with Zemgus, KO and Jost all here, no major changes up front at all, but 1-2 new D-men who are legit 2nd pair talent guys added to the back end....I'm happy with that offseason.

[Dr. Who]

22 hours ago, ... said:

Two things and I'll get the blasphemy out of the way first: I'm not enthusiastic over Savoie. 

The second thing, and really the important point for this thread, is that as much as I want to free up KO's roster slot, if you listened to those locker clean-out interviews each one of the players to a man talked about the culture, how comfortable they feel, how much they like coming to the rink. And between their remarks about KO, KO's remarks, and Meatball's remarks on KO, I am convinced that KO was like daddy/culture-czar in that room. 

There is absolutely no dismissing how important it is to have that atmosphere in there and my impression is that it took not only Meatballs doing his thing, KA cleaning house of the locker room cancers, but also KO putting his foot down and showing the way.

Is that worth giving the guy a shot at a final season of a glorious playoff run for ~$2.5mil for the year? I think so. I think KO has more to teach these guys and he can help make sure there are no embers of locker rooms past. If we carry two goalies there's room for him on the roster and still add a solid player to the third line.

 

 

I've been hoping KO would retire. You sure as hell can't push him out the door, but you make a compelling case.

Why are you an outlier on Savoie?

[...]

We can not carry more than two goalies, that's just silly and both Comrie and UPL are under contract for another year.

Retaining Jost, Z, KO, and Bryson with two goalies = 21 players.

I don't want to keep Bryson but he has another year on his contract.

At some point we have to move on from Girgensons although he is cheap and a good shut down fourth-liner. I would feel bad for him for about 10 minutes if he were not brought back. If that's the case we then have a 20-player roster to work with.

As much as I like the thought of KO retiring mid-season after 1k games I don't think that's his only interest. If I were him I would be driven to experience a play-off run one more time. So, IMHO if he stays he's here for the entire season.

Just playing around, one of the 20 goes to Savoie or Rousek.

Another goes to a good 3/4 defenseman. 

That leaves one more slot. Between that slot and possible trades I think we're in position to upgrade the team even with KO on the roster.

 

 

[...]

4 hours ago, Dr. Who said:

Why are you an outlier on Savoie?

Sorry, missed this. 

I almost would rather not say, but whatevers...I know there are successful shorter-statured players in the league however I think every one to come through the Sabres over the last 15 years or so have been well over-sold. From what I see of him, and this is only stats and YooTube videos, I get the same impression that this guy is being over-sold as well.

I think my record on being open to changing my mind - the most recent case being Mitts - speaks for itself and I hope that's the case with this guy but for now I'm not boarding the hype train.

 

[French Collection]

7 minutes ago, ... said:

Sorry, missed this. 

I almost would rather not say, but whatevers...I know there are successful shorter-statured players in the league however I think every one to come through the Sabres over the last 15 years or so have been well over-sold. From what I see of him, and this is only stats and YooTube videos, I get the same impression that this guy is being over-sold as well.

I think my record on being open to changing my mind - the most recent case being Mitts - speaks for itself and I hope that's the case with this guy but for now I'm not boarding the hype train.

 

We all hope for a Briere, Barzal or Point but he could end up like Erod.

[Thorner]

On 4/17/2023 at 4:43 PM, LabattBlue said:

I want to make the playoffs…not waste a roster spot on an over the hill vet…just to say “look how good we treated KO”. 

Yea. It’s jumping the shark at this point