Other teams and players see Buffalo coming...

[Dreams Burn Down]

16 hours ago, pi2000 said:

Let's be real... we're 6 points out of wildcard sport, in January.    Sure t's a nice improvement from years past, but we're not in a playoff race.

Let's not kid ourselves, this team is young and as the calendar turns from Januaray to February and March, veteran teams will step up their games.    At that same time I fully expect Buffalo to slow down a bit as the kids slowly run out of gas... and that's OK... they're on the right track to compete for a wildcard spot next season.

I've been expecting this team to fold under pressure and regress.  That is moreso out of what's happened in years past than what my eyes have seen from this team since their late- season surge last year.

This team is a departure from those of the recent past.  They have a resiliency that is a pleasure to watch.  Yes, they had the 8 game losing streak.  In past years, that would have become a months-long funk.  They also struggle in the third period, but have still managed to win a majority of those games, regardless.  In years past, they simply lost those games.

This team will be a tough out through the end of the season.  If they do miss the playoffs, it will be by less than 5 points instead of 20-plus points.  I believe we'll be at least a Wild Card entry and be nipping at Toronto's heels for second in the division by the end.

 

[Archie Lee]

13 hours ago, CTJoe said:

wow, why should we bother watching.  I'll take the glass half full approach

Add a solid 3/4 RHD and we could be on to something

In a few weeks the Sabres will add a young 2nd pairing right shot D with about 230 games of NHL experience.

[mjd1001]

18 hours ago, pi2000 said:

Let's be real... we're 6 points out of wildcard sport, in January.    Sure t's a nice improvement from years past, but we're not in a playoff race.

Let's not kid ourselves, this team is young and as the calendar turns from Januaray to February and March, veteran teams will step up their games.    At that same time I fully expect Buffalo to slow down a bit as the kids slowly run out of gas... and that's OK... they're on the right track to compete for a wildcard spot next season.

They may very well fall out of that race for the reasons you stated (the kids slowing down, etc) but that doesn't mean they AREN'T in the race now.

95 sometimes gets you into the playoffs. Right now the 'pace' to make the last spot in the east is 95 also (yes that can change, a few points higher or lower)

Look at the teams above the Sabres or in that last wild card spot and see what  they need to get to 95 points by the end of the year:

Islanders:  .5975  of remaining points (98 point pace)

Pittsburgh: .5795 (95 point pace)

Buffalo:  .5978  (98 point pace)

Florida:  .6547  (107.4 point pace)

It's a race.  I didn't include Washington, Tampa, Rangers or New Jersey, all of whom are within a handfall of 'points pace' to the Sabres and all currently in spots they can fall out of.

So the Sabres goaltending can cool off a bit, Scoring may drop. The 'young guys' may hit the wall, or a Team like Florida might get it together and go on a 7 or 8 game run to pass the Sabres. Yes, those are all possible.  But they didn't happen yet, so as of now the Sabres are right in the middle of a wild card race at the moment.

 

[Porous Five Hole]

1 hour ago, mjd1001 said:

They may very well fall out of that race for the reasons you stated (the kids slowing down, etc) but that doesn't mean they AREN'T in the race now.

95 sometimes gets you into the playoffs. Right now the 'pace' to make the last spot in the east is 95 also (yes that can change, a few points higher or lower)

Look at the teams above the Sabres or in that last wild card spot and see what  they need to get to 95 points by the end of the year:

Islanders:  .5975  of remaining points (98 point pace)

Pittsburgh: .5795 (95 point pace)

Buffalo:  .5978  (98 point pace)

Florida:  .6547  (107.4 point pace)

It's a race.  I didn't include Washington, Tampa, Rangers or New Jersey, all of whom are within a handfall of 'points pace' to the Sabres and all currently in spots they can fall out of.

So the Sabres goaltending can cool off a bit, Scoring may drop. The 'young guys' may hit the wall, or a Team like Florida might get it together and go on a 7 or 8 game run to pass the Sabres. Yes, those are all possible.  But they didn't happen yet, so as of now the Sabres are right in the middle of a wild card race at the moment.

 

The Panthers are 18-18-4, so I think their pace referenced above might be off.  

[Archie Lee]

The Sabres having multiple games postponed has messed with the standings.  A couple of thoughts though:

- On Nov 20, 2022 the Sabres were 14th in the conference and had a points % of .388.  From a points % standpoint they were .190 behind the 2nd wildcard team

- Today the Sabres are 10th in the conference but from a points % standpoint are only .023 behind the 2nd wildcard team

The Sabres could fade, of course. There are still red flags to be sure (Can the goaltending hold-up? Will inexperience be a factor? Is their current shooting % close to sustainable?).  But it also might be that the 8 game losing streak was the anomaly and everything else that we have seen since March 1, 2022 is the new mean.   

I had the NHL network on yesterday afternoon with Boomer and Jake.  Not saying that he is an expert or anything, but on the topic of Eastern Conference playoffs and whether it will be 5 metro teams that make it, Boomer's view is that it will be 4 metro teams because "the Sabres are a freight train".

 

 

[mjd1001]

1 hour ago, Porous Five Hole said:

The Panthers are 18-18-4, so I think their pace referenced above might be off.  

Florida has 40 points, to get to 95 they need 55 more.

They have 42 games remaining.

55 points divided by 42 games equals 1.309 points per game to get to 95 points.   1.309 points per game over 82 games is 107.338 point pace, which I put as 107.4

[DarthEbriate]

It's the offense. The 8-game losing streak was an aberration from defensive injuries and the lessened ability to transition and counter. They still scored 3 or more goals in 4 of those losses. During the current 7-1 stretch, they've scored fewer than 3 goals 1 time (the Ottawa loss), and that is with the Kid Line completely disappearing off the scoresheet (1G, 3A from Quinn & JJP). They're still almost at 4 gpg, almost 0.2 gpg ahead of Boston. The sample size is large enough that one-game explosions aren't changing things. Stay healthy, keep the goaltending average, and this offense will guide them to 7-3 out of every 10.