How bad is Casey Mittelstadt?

[inkman]

49 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

Yea it's called Alex Tuch.

I know this is all tongue in cheek but neither mitts nor Girgs have the hockey sense Tuch does.  Mitts issue isn’t effort (although it could be better), it’s hockey IQ.  He just has no idea what to do.  Constantly skating or passing into the teeth of the defense.  He doesn’t recognize what he’s seeing on the ice. 

[K-9]

Just now, JohnC said:

He's not a flash in the pan. He will never reach your loftier expectation of him (compared to what I have of him) but that doesn't mean that he doesn't have a role on this team. He is a third line player and not a second line player. I accept that. 

😂 That’s just it and as I’ve said previously, I have no expectation of him. None, zip, zero, nada. Because I doubt he will ever be anything different than he is now; an inconsistent player at best. And that inconsistency is the very definition of a flash in the pan. 

[inkman]

2 hours ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

 

Z was a top 15 pick. Why isn’t he an underachiever under the same standards being applied to Mitts? Z’s best season is 30 points but over the last 6 years he has averaged about 18 points.  

Casey already has 20 points in 36 games and is on pace for 45+.  What more can Casey do with his role when DG admittedly has saddled that line with lousy D?  

Top 10 and top 15 are very different things in the NHL draft 

[IKnowPhysics]

Looked for a long time at 5v5 combinations of Mitts and different dmen in terms of the CF/CA, HDCF/HDCA, xGF%.

Defensively, Mitts plays alright with Dahlin, Lybushkin, Bryson, Clague, Pilut, Power, and Dahlin.  He improves the defensive results when Bryson and Pilut are on the ice compared to their other teammates.  However, he should never play with Fitzgerald, Joker, or Samuelsson; they experience a increase in CA/60 and HDCA/60.  It's especially awful when Mittelstadt and Fitzgerald are on the ice.

But offensively, Mitts plays fine with Dahlin (Dahlin notably doesn't see a decrease in CF/60 or HDCF/60 when Mitts is with him) and Pilut.  Pilut and Mittelstadt seem to make each other significantly better at both ends.  However, every other dman sees worse CF/60 and HDCF/60 when Mittelstadt is on the ice, likely due to their other teammates (Thompson, Cozens, et al) being better.

The problem is that this lack of offense in combination with terrible defensive teamwork with some dmen makes for a sub-50% xGF% when he's on the ice with anyone but Dahlin.

Both Mittestadt's zone starts and quality of competition is balanced, so it's not much of a factor (ie, he's not always being sent out against the league's best or always being started in the dzone).

 

The real question is how to move forward.  When lined up with Jost and Olofsson, the CF% was fine, but they generated piss poor HDCF/60 and xGF%.  Mittelstadt's basically never played with Okposo and it might be worth a try, but Z-Krebs-Okposo has been pretty good, especially at limiting opponent scoring, so I don't know if breaking that up is worth it... it might be.

Alternatively, JJ-Cozens-Quinn, while high scoring and fun to watch, hasn't been the best defensively when playing with Power and Clague (they've been pretty good with Dahlin and Samuelsson).  Maybe playing with that lineup might yield better overall results?

 

[inkman]

7 hours ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

Casey is on pace for a 46 pts season.  That's excellent production for a 3rd line player making only 2.5 million.  

There has been constant talk on this board about how Casey is a turnover machine.  The stats don't bear that out.  His 2.15 Gva/60 is 65th worst among NHL forwards, which isn't great, but not terrible either.  Skinner is the Sabres worst forward on giveaways at 2.20 per 60.  (57th worst).  None of these guys are even close to the 4.72 by Pastrnak (NHL's worst), or even Kucherov (3.90), Barzal (3.84), Draisaitl (3.71), or McJesus (3.31).  

On takaways, Mitts is second at on the team at 2.36 behind only Tuch at 2.46.  Mitts is a net +2 between Gva and Tka.  

Skinner is the closest we have to a "turnover machine" and he isn't even that bad.  His net -6 is the worst among our forwards.  The only other - Sabres forwards are Krebs (-1) and JJP (-2).  

Oh by the way Casey has 2g 5a for 7 pts and a +2 in his last 10 games.  I thought it was very telling that Casey was the player DG promoted to the top line during Skinner's suspension.  

I'd love to see the chart which shows what D Casey and VO were most often paired with.  

 

 

I’m still trying to wrap my head around you listing the leagues best players and their turnover stats.  

[K-9]

44 minutes ago, dudacek said:

This raises an interesting question:

Who would you rather have on your 3rd line?

A guy who plays like a 2nd liner half the time and is replacement level the other half? (not arguing Casey is this guy)

Or a guy who is consistently neutral?

I honestly don’t think it matters. And given the way DG uses his lines, I don’t think the traditional 1-4 line labels apply anyway. 

[Eleven]

Reading through the last few posts, it seems that we can agree that Mittleltadt sucks.  The problem is whether his replacement is in the organization, which iit isn't.  Can you honestly see this guy starting games in Chicago, much less Boston? 

[GASabresIUFAN]

1 hour ago, irregularly irregular said:

Is that the case? It seems more of a situational determination where DG needs to rest his more useful lines, so the smart thing is the bottom pairing D goes with the Mitts-VO-currently Jost line on offensive zone face-offs where they hopefully have the greatest chance for success. What more can DG do than provide them the protected minutes in the hope they produce? Would you rather be burning out Muel and Dahlin just so that Mitts line isn't saddled with a weaker pairing? I believe it was Dudacek who has shown the TOI curve is heavily skewed to Dahlin-Muel-Power as it is. They can't be doing 30 minutes each night. 

 

 

I want them to upgrade the defense.  DG himself has stated that he has saddled that line with the depth D.  

[irregularly irregular]

7 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

I want them to upgrade the defense.  DG himself has stated that he has saddled that line with the depth D.  

We'd all like to see a stronger defense at positions 4-7, but it's not here at the moment. Any line with Mitts and VO playing at their current level will be saddled with the 3rd pairing regardless of who those D are. They need to step up and give DG a reason to change their usage. We don't need to find excuses for them. 

[GASabresIUFAN]

2 hours ago, inkman said:

Top 10 and top 15 are very different things in the NHL draft 

Actually they aren't.  Players in the top five are historically better.  After that from picks 6-25 the player's odds of playing 100 NHL games are about the same.

https://dobberprospects.com/2020/05/16/nhl-draft-pick-probabilities/ 

Dobber wrote an interesting article about that a few years ago and their results were very similar to what Scott Cullen published when he was with TSN discovered about a decade ago. 

I found a copy of Cullen's stats on a spreadsheet I had from 2009.  He wrote then that a pick from 5-10 had about a 74% chance of playing 100 games and while it varied some from class to class, picks 20-25 had a 72% chance.  After that it feel quickly.  It stays at about 25% until mid way through the 3rd and then it fall quickly into the low teens.  

Edited January 5, 2023 by GASabresIUFAN

[Crusader1969]

If I had my druthers Olofsson and Bryson would go before Mitts.  
 

 

[K-9]

4 minutes ago, Crusader1969 said:

If I had my druthers Olofsson and Bryson would go before Mitts.  
 

 

No argument here. Just because Mitts sucks doesn’t mean a couple others don’t suck more.

[French Collection]

1 minute ago, Crusader1969 said:

If I had my druthers Olofsson and Bryson would go before Mitts.  
 

 

Olofsson really needs to bear down at 5v5. He is not winning any battles and struggles to get the puck out along the wall.

PP2 has not been used a lot and he has not been a factor there. He still has the good shot but there are fewer opportunities to use it and he brings little else.

[nfreeman]

45 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

I want them to upgrade the defense.  DG himself has stated that he has saddled that line with the depth D.  

This is another thing you keep saying to support a narrative that isn’t grounded in fact.  DG said, one time and several weeks ago, in response to a question about Mitts’ undeniable and obviously terrible play, that his line frequently plays with the 3rd-pairing D.  DG was clearly trying to help a struggling player by being supportive in the media.

If you’ve got any data to support this particular excuse for Mitts’ breathtaking 5-on-5 suckitude, please post it.

In the meantime, here’s some data:  Mitts’ line gets by far the most O-zone faceoffs, at nearly 72%.

[inkman]

25 minutes ago, nfreeman said:

This is another thing you keep saying to support a narrative that isn’t grounded in fact.  DG said, one time and several weeks ago, in response to a question about Mitts’ undeniable and obviously terrible play, that his line frequently plays with the 3rd-pairing D.  DG was clearly trying to help a struggling player by being supportive in the media.

If you’ve got any data to support this particular excuse for Mitts’ breathtaking 5-on-5 suckitude, please post it.

In the meantime, here’s some data:  Mitts’ line gets by far the most O-zone faceoffs, at nearly 72%.

Breathtaking suckitude 😂

[GASabresIUFAN]

23 minutes ago, nfreeman said:

In the meantime, here’s some data:  Mitts’ line gets by far the most O-zone faceoffs, at nearly 72%.

I don't know where you get that number.  Hockey-reference has his Ozone starts at 52.6%  

[Broken Ankles]

57 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

I don't know where you get that number.  Hockey-reference has his Ozone starts at 52.6%  

Could be 52% for the year.  Not this line.  Highly sheltered.  Natural Stat Trick. 

[steveoath]

I find it interesting that Krebs was put with the "grinders" and seems to have relished the role. Could he "graduate" from KO + ZG and Casey be paired with them so he can, hopefully, improve as a role player?

[French Collection]

6 minutes ago, steveoath said:

I find it interesting that Krebs was put with the "grinders" and seems to have relished the role. Could he "graduate" from KO + ZG and Casey be paired with them so he can, hopefully, improve as a role player?

He could slot into the 3C role at some point but I don’t think his line mates should be VO and Mitts. Jost is stronger defensively for that role right now.

VO could benefit from a playmaker like Krebs, he just needs to work harder at 5v5.

[Broken Ankles]

11 hours ago, Broken Ankles said:

Could be 52% for the year.  Not this line.  Highly sheltered.  Natural Stat Trick. 

Curious about the shift away from Def zone face-offs for this line, and specifically Mitts and VO.  
   When Casey was on the wing with Tage he saw a 53% O-zone rate.  With Vic for the entire year (with/without Jost) they were 58%. And with neither, Mitts was a staggering 28%.  In 84 minutes of time.  So why would a coach drastically reduce Defensive Zone face offs over the last few games (since the formation of the line with Jost- Arizona) for a player when they are statistically one of the better performers on the team? Not that Face-offs matter, eh Liger 😉.  The answer could be the offensive prowess of the three and better opportunity to score.  But I’m more glass half empty on this one.  It’s fear that a team struggling on the Dot will lose possession and increase the chances against with Mitts/VO in their own zone. 

[FrenchConnection44]

22 hours ago, dudacek said:

I think our points are more in line than you may realize.

I was partly talking about fan expectations in my post, but moreso I was talking about player expectations.

Casey is undergoing a process where he first realized he wasn’t going to be an NHL player training like he did in juniors, then realizing he wasn’t going to be a star playing like he did in juniors.

As @Taro T has done a good job explaining, he has adjusted his approach. He just has more to learn and more adjustments to make. He’s only played 231 NHL games.

The next step - the one that is underway this year - is realizing that he isn’t going to be a star, period, and figuring out how he is just going to be a useful player. I brought Jost into the equation because he comes from a similar place as Casey, and is a year ahead of him on that curve.

I can guarantee Avs fans were making similar posts to yours about Jost two years ago.

Maybe so. But my prime point is my view of him is not based on his draft status. 
 

At the same time we need significant improvement at the center / forward position past the first two lines.  I’m just not seeing consistency from CM game in game out. Maybe he will improve as the season goes on. 

[dudacek]

13 minutes ago, FrenchConnection44 said:

Maybe so. But my prime point is my view of him is not based on his draft status. 
 

At the same time we need significant improvement at the center / forward position past the first two lines.  I’m just not seeing consistency from CM game in game out. Maybe he will improve as the season goes on. 

I think we need to see improvement from at least 2 of these 6: Krebs, Jost, Mitts, VO, Quinn and Peterka.

You can accept two or three of them playing at a 3rd-line level, but not all of them. (Despite the fact we can apparently win with all of them)

Cozens is the only player we’ve got who has thrived under 2nd line usage.

Okposo and Girgensons have been good in bottom six usage. Krebs and Jost have looked good with them, less so away from them.

[bob_sauve28]

Just wish VO could get put on another line. I really get the feeling that idea horrifies some posters here because he might just be the VO who was scoring all the time before he got chained to the corpse that is Casey M. 

 

Free Victor!! 

[LGR4GM]

23 minutes ago, bob_sauve28 said:

Just wish VO could get put on another line. I really get the feeling that idea horrifies some posters here because he might just be the VO who was scoring all the time before he got chained to the corpse that is Casey M. 

 

Free Victor!! 

Alright which winger are you demoting? Skinner, Tuch, Peterka, or Quinn?

[Marvin]

9 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

Alright which winger are you demoting? Skinner, Tuch, Peterka, or Quinn?

You could swap him with Okposo.