Kane for the quest to the Cup?

[Doohicksie]

 

[mjd1001]

22 hours ago, Berg said:

Kane and Toews are too valuable players to be given away for nothing. For each them, they will ask for 1 draft pick and someone else of value, and both of them are running out of contracts. Very big chance to buy air. But if you choose from these two, Toews is better.

Honestly I don't want either, even as a free agent signing where I gave up nothing.  At some point all players hit the wall, and I think both of them are doing so now.  Could you MAYBE get another good year out of them? Possibly. But I'd rather keep the current young guys instead.

Kane has 4 goals this year and is 34. Get him next year how much better will he be at 35?  The last time he scored 30 in a season was when he started that season at 31.  For the last 4 years his shooting percentage is under 10%, at this point in his career, he relies on quantity of shots to get his goals.  First, do you want to to give him free reign to take shots opposed to a linemate he may have here? 2nd, even if you do that, as he gets older, will he be as good at generating space and chances for himself that he relied on earlier in his career?   I'm not saying he is a total Bust, but I just think he is on the downside for sure, and I wouldn't see him as an upgrade on this roster.  For sure not over Olofsson as many are suggesting.  Right now VO is a much better scorer than Kane, and I don't think Kane brings much else to the lineup that is that much better than VO.

Same thing with Toews, other than that 'leadership' quality everyone talks about (I think the Sabres room is good enough there) I'm not sure what he brings.  He is slowing down, so as far as penalty killing and a 2-way game you don't get much more out of him than you do out of a Girgensons for example.  And offensively, the last 2.5 years he has hit the wall also. He still has some value in the offensive zone, but not much more than the Sabres are currently getting out of their 3rd line.  I watched a couple Blackhawk games this year, and eye-test he is behind the play a step or two quite often, he is 'slowing down' for sure.

If I had to pick one of the two, I'd take Toews, but I woudn't want to give up anything picks/prospects for him.

Edited December 21, 2022 by mjd1001

[LGR4GM]

[French Collection]

1 hour ago, mjd1001 said:

Honestly I don't want either, even as a free agent signing where I gave up nothing.  At some point all players hit the wall, and I think both of them are doing so now.  Could you MAYBE get another good year out of them? Possibly. But I'd rather keep the current young guys instead.

Kane has 4 goals this year and is 34. Get him next year how much better will he be at 35?  The last time he scored 30 in a season was when he started that season at 31.  For the last 10 years his shooting percentage is under 10%, at this point in his career, he relies on quantity of shots to get his goals.  First, do you want to to give him free reign to take shots opposed to a linemate he may have here? 2nd, even if you do that, as he gets older, will he be as good at generating space and chances for himself that he relied on earlier in his career?   I'm not saying he is a total Bust, but I just think he is on the downside for sure, and I wouldn't see him as an upgrade on this roster.  For sure not over Olofsson as many are suggesting.  Right now VO is a much better scorer than Kane, and I don't think Kane brings much else to the lineup that is that much better than VO.

Same thing with Toews, other than that 'leadership' quality everyone talks about (I think the Sabres room is good enough there) I'm not sure what he brings.  He is slowing down, so as far as penalty killing and a 2-way game you don't get much more out of him than you do out of a Girgensons for example.  And offensively, the last 2.5 years he has hit the wall also. He still has some value in the offensive zone, but not much more than the Sabres are currently getting out of their 3rd line.  I watched a couple Blackhawk games this year, and eye-test he is behind the play a step or two quite often, he is 'slowing down' for sure.

If I had to pick one of the two, I'd take Toews, but I woudn't want to give up anything picks/prospects for him.

I’m still on the fence about getting Kane. Definitely as a UFA only, the price will be too high for KA to trade for him.

I agree that Kane is slowing down, but the Hawks are a lot weaker team this year. Debrincat, Strome, Hagel and Kubalik gone from their lineup. Time catches up to everyone but Kane can still help an offense, especially on the PP. If KA makes some moves to add D depth and a spot is open for Kane to join the team on a good contract, I will get behind it.

Ask Debrincat if he misses Kane, he is on pace for less than 30 after two 40 goal seasons.

[JoeSchmoe]

6 hours ago, DarthEbriate said:

Mitts + VO to Chicago for Toews + Kane straight up. Chicago gets to continue their rush to the bottom, but 1.5 seasons of a 2nd line. And Mitts is still an RFA and could still pop. And Chicago could still re-sign both of them in the offseason. Of course, we'd need to find new folks to complain about.

Given his draft pedigree and relatively good production, someone is going to give us a Ristolainen Jr deal for Mitts. That deal will help us far more in the long run than having Kane or Toews will... Especially since the two of them are on the precipice of a giant cliff as far as production goes.

To win a cup, we need to be as good as we can for AS MANY years as we can. There are always way too many good teams in the league every year to put all your eggs in one basket for one or two shots at it. The odds are simply against you if you LIMIT the years. The best way to limit years is giving up draft capital and young talent for declining vets.

Cheap, young, good, and deep is the key. Identify and sign the key pieces early on team friendly contracts to stay good for 10+ years. That's the way to MAXIMIZE your chances.

6 hours ago, DarthEbriate said:

 

 

Edited December 20, 2022 by JoeSchmoe

[Crusader1969]

Huge factor is what they think of Kulich and Savoie 

if they think they are both NHL players next year, I’d be very surprised if anything but a 4th line replacement for Okposo is picked up in the off-season   The line_up would pretty well be set

Tage       Skinner     Tuch

Cozens   Peterka     Quinn

Savoie     Jost         Kulich

Girgs     Krebs         UFA 

 

 

 

 

 

[French Collection]

1 hour ago, JoeSchmoe said:

Given his draft pedigree and relatively good production, someone is going to give us a Ristolainen Jr deal for Mitts. That deal will help us far more in the long run than having Kane or Toews will... Especially since the two of them are on the precipice of a giant cliff as far as production goes.

To win a cup, we need to be as good as we can for AS MANY years as we can. There are always way too many good teams in the league every year to put all your eggs in one basket for one or two shots at it. The odds are simply against you if you LIMIT the years. The best way to limit years is giving up draft capital and young talent for declining vets.

Cheap, young, good, and deep is the key. Identify and sign the key pieces early on team friendly contracts to stay good for 10+ years. That's the way to MAXIMIZE your chances.

 

I’m going to keep using Toews as an example. I have always admired his game, subtle but effective 200’ play. Crosby gets credit for the Golden goal in Vancouver but Toews led that star laden team in scoring and was a force on both special teams while playing the 3rd line. I think it is too early in the rebuild to get him but a guy like him could really help, provided he’s got more game left than the Eric Staal experiment.

The comparable I am going to use is Bryan Trottier going to the Penguins before they had won anything. Lemieux was 24 and Jagr was 18. All world talent but they didn’t know how to win. Trottier was over the hill but brought a winning pedigree and a burning desire to win more. He played 3rd and 4th line roles and helped them win two Cups.

Not many teams can afford Toews this year and maybe he could help mentor the kids and lock down the 3C role. His hometown Jets will likely push hard for him but maybe Kane is selling the Sabres to him in the background while telling him he would take a low salary as a UFA to win in Buffalo.

Anyway, that was a long winded way of saying the Sabres could use some solid vets when they decide to go for it.

 

 

[JoeSchmoe]

1 hour ago, French Collection said:

I’m going to keep using Toews as an example. I have always admired his game, subtle but effective 200’ play. Crosby gets credit for the Golden goal in Vancouver but Toews led that star laden team in scoring and was a force on both special teams while playing the 3rd line. I think it is too early in the rebuild to get him but a guy like him could really help, provided he’s got more game left than the Eric Staal experiment.

The comparable I am going to use is Bryan Trottier going to the Penguins before they had won anything. Lemieux was 24 and Jagr was 18. All world talent but they didn’t know how to win. Trottier was over the hill but brought a winning pedigree and a burning desire to win more. He played 3rd and 4th line roles and helped them win two Cups.

Not many teams can afford Toews this year and maybe he could help mentor the kids and lock down the 3C role. His hometown Jets will likely push hard for him but maybe Kane is selling the Sabres to him in the background while telling him he would take a low salary as a UFA to win in Buffalo.

Anyway, that was a long winded way of saying the Sabres could use some solid vets when they decide to go for it.

Yeah, I don't believe in the learning to win thing. I think it's a statistical probability the winning team will have a good veteran that's won before.

To the same point, there are far more teams in the Stanley Cup playoffs that don't win the cup despite having veterans that supposedly know how to win... But those teams are easily forgotten.

Edited December 21, 2022 by JoeSchmoe
Added the last half sentence

[Hank]

If Savoie is making the Sabres next year perhaps Kane could be a good fit with him on the 3rd line? I wouldn't trade for him though. 

[PerreaultForever]

Absolutely no but I'd still give him a call in the off season and see if he's actually intrigued by the idea of finishing in Buffalo. If so, at reasonable money, absolutely as a free agent. 

1 hour ago, Hank said:

If Savoie is making the Sabres next year perhaps Kane could be a good fit with him on the 3rd line? I wouldn't trade for him though. 

Personally I'd put him on Cozen's wing. 

[nfreeman]

16 hours ago, Crusader1969 said:

Huge factor is what they think of Kulich and Savoie 

if they think they are both NHL players next year, I’d be very surprised if anything but a 4th line replacement for Okposo is picked up in the off-season   The line_up would pretty well be set

Tage       Skinner     Tuch

Cozens   Peterka     Quinn

Savoie     Jost         Kulich

Girgs     Krebs         UFA 

Yes — Savoie and Kulich (and Rosen and maybe Cedarqvist) definitely factor into this analysis, along with VO and Mitts.  If none of the kids is ready for the NHL next year, and if one or both of Mitts and VO are gone at the deadline or this summer, there will definitely be room on the Sabres for Kane and/or Toews.

I think it’s something like 65% likely that none of the kids will be ready next year, and 50% likely that one of Mitts or VO will be gone (and 80% likely that KO will be gone, as he looks out of gas). So it’s pretty likely that there will be some room for one or two additions.

I’d be happy with either of them, but not at any longer than a 2-year deal.  

[tom webster]

I believe 100% that Kane would like to finish his career in Buffalo and believe that Buffalo has discussed that possibility as well.

I do, however, believe it’s slightly less likely now for a few reasons. I now believe that the Islanders are slight favorites, followed by the Rangers. Kane loves Barzal, the Rangers will do everything in their power to not let that happen and both teams would want extra years.

In Buffalo’s favor, the cap remaining relatively flat another year. This may lead to Kane going to Minnesota at the deadline and to Buffalo in the off-season.

[Crusader1969]

I’m at 75% that either Savoie or Kulich will be ready

55% both will be ready 

[Pimlach]

17 hours ago, Crusader1969 said:

Huge factor is what they think of Kulich and Savoie 

if they think they are both NHL players next year, I’d be very surprised if anything but a 4th line replacement for Okposo is picked up in the off-season   The line_up would pretty well be set

Tage       Skinner     Tuch

Cozens   Peterka     Quinn

Savoie     Jost         Kulich

Girgs     Krebs         UFA 

 

 

 

 

 

Can we really absorb two more rookie forwards, Kulich and Savoie, on top of JJP and Quinn?    Are they even good enough next year to beat out NHL incumbents - I hate giving spots to players based on draft status.  
 

Look at the Vegas game when DG benched the rookies.  If we are going to be a serious playoff team, and hang with the big boys, then I think the above roster has to have more experience and maturity at forward.  
 

As for Kane to Buffalo, I’m not sure he is what we need in the room.  I can live without Kane.  

[Crusader1969]

22 minutes ago, Pimlach said:

Can we really absorb two more rookie forwards, Kulich and Savoie, on top of JJP and Quinn?    Are they even good enough next year to beat out NHL incumbents - I hate giving spots to players based on draft status.  
 

Look at the Vegas game when DG benched the rookies.  If we are going to be a serious playoff team, and hang with the big boys, then I think the above roster has to have more experience and maturity at forward.  
 

As for Kane to Buffalo, I’m not sure he is what we need in the room.  I can live without Kane.  

Yes , JJ and Quinn won’t be rookies any longer 

Kulich will have played 2 years of pro hockey and Savoie may be ready to step straight into the NHL. Hopefully he will otherwise he has to go back to WHL   (I think )

But I’m also not giving anyone roster spots, they have to earn them.  

[nfreeman]

42 minutes ago, Crusader1969 said:

I’m at 75% that either Savoie or Kulich will be ready

55% both will be ready 

I sure hope you're right, but Savoie is 42nd in the WHL in scoring and wasn't invited to Canada's WJC tryouts.  That doesn't sound like a guy who's going to force his way into the NHL next year (and I think you're right that it's either the NHL or back to juniors for him next year).

As for Kulich, I haven't seen him play, but he's 5th on the Amerks in scoring, which is really good for an 18-year-old, but also doesn't sound like a guy who is too good not to be in the NHL next year at age 19 (he doesn't turn 20 until April 2024).

[Pimlach]

49 minutes ago, Crusader1969 said:

Yes , JJ and Quinn won’t be rookies any longer 

Kulich will have played 2 years of pro hockey and Savoie may be ready to step straight into the NHL. Hopefully he will otherwise he has to go back to WHL   (I think )

But I’m also not giving anyone roster spots, they have to earn them.  

Second year players like JJP and Quinn will still have a lot to learn.  It is just a matter of one team digesting three rookies this year (plus Samuelsson, Krebs, and UPL who are not technically rookies but also have not played a full season in the NHL at the start of this season).  Then add two more rookies next year that makes me a bit nervous when you compare us to the top 8 in the league.  

We shall see. If they earn the spots then fine, no problem.  If Mitts and/or VO get moved, and no veteran forwards are acquired then that is almost giving them a spot.   

Savioe is interesting, he might be better off with Buffalo rather than back to the WHL - the fact that he isn't eligible for Rochester means we may decide to keep him.  I was hoping he would take over 3C but he is not lighting it up in the WHL this season.  

Edited December 21, 2022 by Pimlach

[Doohicksie]

1 hour ago, Pimlach said:

Can we really absorb two more rookie forwards, Kulich and Savoie, on top of JJP and Quinn?

Silly goose.  JJP and Quinn won't be rookies next year.

[Doohicksie]

50 minutes ago, Pimlach said:

Second year players like JJP and Quinn will still have a lot to learn.  It is just a matter of one team digesting three rookies this year (plus Samuelsson, Krebs, and UPL who are not technically rookies but also have not played a full season in the NHL at the start of this season).  Then add two more rookies next year that makes me a bit nervous when you compare us to the top 8 in the league.  

We shall see. If they earn the spots then fine, no problem.  If Mitts and/or VO get moved, and no veteran forwards are acquired then that is almost giving them a spot. 

This, perhaps, is the weak underbelly of Kevyn's plan to build through draft and development.  If that's how he plans to build the team you're going to have a conveyor belt of rookies pushing the second year guys into increasingly responsible assignments.  But for the next several years, plan on having to assimilate three rookies.  It's just the way the team is being built.

This is where the intangibles comes in:  If each of these guys has a leader/proactive mindset, it could work.  I look at JJ and Quinn and I see that (despite the last game or two).  If you have guys champing on the bit to be here (JJ, Quin) instead of just worrying about whether they're going to ***** up or not (Mitts, Krebs), it can work.

Then again, maybe that's what the conveyor belt is:  This year you have

• JJ, Quinn and Power, and to an extent UPL as rookies finding their way.
• Samuelsson, Cozens, Krebs, Mitts, Comrie as young players consolidating their experience to establish themselves on the team.
• The rest of the team.

Next year it will be

• Savoie, Kulich, and whoever else as rookies finding their way.
• JJ, Quinn and Power and UPL as young players consolidating their experience to establish themselves on the team.
• The rest of the team.

You have to acknowledge and play around the fact that you've got guys that are still learning playing regular shifts and need to account for their mistakes.  Shortening you bench in the late stages of a tight game isn't a rejection of the rookies/younger players, it's just managing risk to maximize your outcomes.  The advantage of having 2-3-4 rookies on the team is they are assimilating the "tribal knowledge" of the big club and its system so that down the road they are the guys playing the late minutes while next year's rookies are benched late in games.

Team building is always going to be a conveyor belt.  It's never complete.  As you bring in younger players, older players will essentially age out, and other players will be weeded out.  Learning how to continually develop and build is how dynasties are born.

Edited December 21, 2022 by Doohickie

[Pimlach]

36 minutes ago, Doohickie said:

Silly goose.  JJP and Quinn won't be rookies next year.

I didn’t say they would be. They will still be rookie-like.  Sophomore seasons are often difficult. 

Edited December 21, 2022 by Pimlach

[Pimlach]

18 minutes ago, Doohickie said:

This, perhaps, is the weak underbelly of Kevyn's plan to build through draft and development.  If that's how he plans to build the team you're going to have a conveyor belt of rookies pushing the second year guys into increasingly responsible assignments.  But for the next several years, plan on having to assimilate three rookies.  It's just the way the team is being built.

This is where the intangibles comes in:  If each of these guys has a leader/proactive mindset, it could work.  I look at JJ and Quinn and I see that (despite the last game or two).  If you have guys champing on the bit to be here (JJ, Quin) instead of just worrying about whether they're going to ***** up or not (Mitts, Krebs), it can work.

Then again, maybe that's what the conveyor belt is:  This year you have

• JJ, Quinn and Power, and to an extent UPL as rookies finding their way.
• Samuelsson, Cozens, Krebs, Mitts, Comrie as young players consolidating their experience to establish themselves on the team.
• The rest of the team.

Next year it will be

• Savoie, Kulich, and whoever else as rookies finding their way.
• JJ, Quinn and Power and UPL as young players consolidating their experience to establish themselves on the team.
• The rest of the team.

You have to acknowledge and play around the fact that you've got guys that are still learning playing regular shifts and need to account for their mistakes.  Shortening you bench in the late stages of a tight game isn't a rejection of the rookies/younger players, it's just managing risk to maximize your outcomes.  The advantage of having 2-3-4 rookies on the team is they are assimilating the "tribal knowledge" of the big club and its system so that down the road they are the guys playing the late minutes while next year's rookies are benched late in games.

Team building is always going to be a conveyor belt.  It's never complete.  As you bring in younger players, older players will essentially age out, and other players will be weeded out.  Learning how to continually develop and build is how dynasties are born.

Some of what you’re saying I can certainly agree with.   
 

However, If we can still add 2-3 rookies a year over the next two years we probably are not challenging for anything significant.   At some point we need to be too good to absorb that many rookies.  
 

We shall see.  I for one want to see a veteran top 4 RHD added and another quality vet forward that can help shut down good teams.  
 

I gave up wishing for a goalie.  Next year will likely be Comrie, UPL and Levi competing for the 2 NHL spots. Portillo maybe. 

[Thorner]

26 minutes ago, Pimlach said:

Some of what you’re saying I can certainly agree with.   
 

However, If we can still add 2-3 rookies a year over the next two years we probably are not challenging for anything significant.   At some point we need to be too good to absorb that many rookies.  
 

We shall see.  I for one want to see a veteran top 4 RHD added and another quality vet forward that can help shut down good teams.  
 

I gave up wishing for a goalie.  Next year will likely be Comrie, UPL and Levi competing for the 2 NHL spots. Portillo maybe. 

Why’d you give up wishing for a goalie? 

[Pimlach]

2 hours ago, Thorny said:

Why’d you give up wishing for a goalie? 

Because I think Adams will stick with Comrie and Andy and UPL for this year.  Comrie will definitely get another good hard look because he committed to the team and Adams will be loyal to that.   

Next year Andy will be gone, and I think we will have Levi in the system and maybe even Portillo.  I just don't see him making a move for a goalie if we sign Levi.  He is trying to establish a culture that every player that comes here and commits to the organization will get a fair look - just like McDermott/Beane do with the Bills.  Adams talks to Beane and that is one part of what changed the Bills culture.  Being fair and decent to players (and alumni) spreads throughout the league.

Commit to winning, install a good coaching staff, be fair with the players - do those things consistently and other players around the league   will change their opinion on Buffalo.  

[Crusader1969]

5 hours ago, nfreeman said:

I sure hope you're right, but Savoie is 42nd in the WHL in scoring and wasn't invited to Canada's WJC tryouts.  That doesn't sound like a guy who's going to force his way into the NHL next year (and I think you're right that it's either the NHL or back to juniors for him next year).

As for Kulich, I haven't seen him play, but he's 5th on the Amerks in scoring, which is really good for an 18-year-old, but also doesn't sound like a guy who is too good not to be in the NHL next year at age 19 (he doesn't turn 20 until April 2024).

There’s a lot to making team Canada 

1) they usually take mostly older players 

only 2 players that are younger than Savoie on the team would be Bedard and Fantilli 

2) he wasn’t at their summer camp as he missed all summer with a shoulder injury

i wouldn’t worry about his point totals - he is a major contributor on a well balanced  Winnipeg team 

From what I’ve heard (I didn’t subscribe to CHL TV this year) Savoie looks really good    Adams has said as much as well as some online scouts who’ve watched him like Will Scouch and a couple of others   Not sure how much stock to put into that but it’s better than them saying he looks terrible 

let’s see how Kulich ends the year   Peterka didn’t really take off until after Christmas    I also don’t expect him to be a scorer like JJ but more of a well rounded guy that would be an asset to the 3rd linE   So it’s not all about points when it comes to Kulich

 

 

 

 

[LGR4GM]

1 hour ago, Crusader1969 said:

There’s a lot to making team Canada 

1) they usually take mostly older players 

only 2 players that are younger than Savoie on the team would be Bedard and Fantilli 

2) he wasn’t at their summer camp as he missed all summer with a shoulder injury

i wouldn’t worry about his point totals - he is a major contributor on a well balanced  Winnipeg team 

From what I’ve heard (I didn’t subscribe to CHL TV this year) Savoie looks really good    Adams has said as much as well as some online scouts who’ve watched him like Will Scouch and a couple of others   Not sure how much stock to put into that but it’s better than them saying he looks terrible 

let’s see how Kulich ends the year   Peterka didn’t really take off until after Christmas    I also don’t expect him to be a scorer like JJ but more of a well rounded guy that would be an asset to the 3rd linE   So it’s not all about points when it comes to Kulich

I'd be really disappointed if Kulich is just a 3rd line guy.