Chychrun vs Demko; Defense vs Goaltender - Where Should KA invest?

[GASabresIUFAN]

Taking the timing of such a blockbuster out of the equation for a moment, if KA is going to spend important assets like our 1st in 2023 and or top prospects like Rosen or Östlund on a top player in his prime, where would you prefer he spend the assets on defense or goaltending and more specifically on Chychrun vs Demko?

https://www.tsn.ca/nhl/arizona-coyotes-set-high-price-for-jakob-chychrun-in-nhl-trade-1.1882610#:~:text=Chychrun had a career season,annual value of %244.6 million.

The alleged price for Chychrun  according to LeBrun is at least 3 pieces. Lindholm trade in 2022 as the reference of a 1st, 2 2nds and two other pieces.  Chychrun is signed for 2 additional season at 4.6 per year.  He is a physical 2 way D who has a career high of 40+ points.

https://www.yardbarker.com/nhl/articles/canucks_reportedly_open_to_considering_a_thatcher_demko_trade/s1_16454_38146079

Demko, currently injured, has struggled this season after two straight excellent years.  The Athletic sites NHL executives as saying the price will probably be a 2023 1st and a good prospect.  

Edited December 15, 2022 by GASabresIUFAN

[thewookie1]

Neither

[GASabresIUFAN]

1 minute ago, thewookie1 said:

Neither

Neither defense or goaltending or just neither player? Other ideas are certainly welcome. 

[PerreaultForever]

I wouldn't gamble on Demko. He was stinking the joint out prior to his injury and doesn't have a long enough track record to give you confidence he'd bounce back in new geography. 

Chychrun I'd be tempted, but the price is too high. The Lindholm trade is certainly working out for Boston, and the idea of Dahlin Samuelsson Power Chychrun gets me pretty excited. Heck, typing out those 4 as a top 4 kind of makes me want to do it. 

[LGR4GM]

He should invest in defense. For me, that's not Chychrun due to price and injury history but Adams needs to find another 3/4 defenseman and I have doubts one exists in this system currently. 

[tom webster]

15 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

He should invest in defense. For me, that's not Chychrun due to price and injury history but Adams needs to find another 3/4 defenseman and I have doubts one exists in this system currently. 

I’m almost positive the GM and coach agree with this. After the New Jersey game they both went on and on about how the Devils defense controlled the game.

[Archie Lee]

I’m also in the neither camp.

While I admit that I would be excited if we acquired either player (price dependent of course) I don’t think Adams will be in the running for either. I’m comfortable with that.

At some point this year Comrie will be back and Luukkonen will be back in Rochester. Both still have time to turn what has been a disappointing start into a positive ending. We won’t acquire another goalie until after Levi is signed, if we do at all.  
 

Joker is our #4, I think. The bottom pairing guys will continue to get the year to prove they can be NHL d men and can play up the lineup when needed. There is lots of season left for this situation to play out further. The same goes, more or less, for the bottom 6 forwards, with some Rochester guys in the mix for next year also. 
 

Right or wrong, our big contracts will be the players we develop and who Adams believes have earned and can handle the responsibility. 
 

 

Edited December 15, 2022 by Archie Lee

[Berg]

Some information about Demko:

Contract until 2027. 

There is experience of playing with Vancouver's leaky defense and quite good statistics at the same time.

Good dimensions - it will be harder for the puck to find a hole.

27 years old.

Edited December 15, 2022 by Berg

[North Buffalo]

Demko (goalie) first priority not sure though on Demko but darn chych has looked pretty good since his return...even if price is high

Edited December 15, 2022 by North Buffalo

[Brawndo]

How about both? 
 

From Elliotte Friedman 

8. The name we’re always discussing in Arizona is Jakob Chychrun, but more and more I’m wondering about Karel Vejmelka. Whether you believe in Moneypuck’s Goals Saved Above Expected metric (he’s first) or Clear Sight’s (third), he’s having a fantastic season and is signed for two more years at a $2.725 million AAV. 

Back in the 1993 MLB expansion draft, the Florida Marlins shocked everyone by taking highly paid closer Bryan Harvey — with the rationale being they wanted to give their young players (and fans) a few extra opportunities to win. Vejmelka’s got the same effect here, but if I needed a goalie and had the assets? (Purely made up by me: Would Los Angeles go after both Chychrun and Vejmelka?) 

[Brawndo]

Bishop’s Contract going to Arizona would offset Chychrun’s Cap Hit and Mitts/VO are in the same range that Vejmelka is 

[LGR4GM]

Vejmelka is very intriguing to me and more-so than Chychrun at this point. He gives you your backup or starter for next year, it allows Anderson to retire, and it means Levi can go to Rochester. 

[mjd1001]

2 hours ago, Archie Lee said:

I’m also in the neither camp.

While I admit that I would be excited if we acquired either player (price dependent of course) I don’t think Adams will be in the running for either. I’m comfortable with that.

At some point this year Comrie will be back and Luukkonen will be back in Rochester. Both still have time to turn what has been a disappointing start into a positive ending. We won’t acquire another goalie until after Levi is signed, if we do at all.  
 

Joker is our #4, I think. The bottom pairing guys will continue to get the year to prove they can be NHL d men and can play up the lineup when needed. There is lots of season left for this situation to play out further. The same goes, more or less, for the bottom 6 forwards, with some Rochester guys in the mix for next year also. 
 

Right or wrong, our big contracts will be the players we develop and who Adams believes have earned and can handle the responsibility. 
 

 

Neither.  I agree with the above almost 100%

I am in the crowd that thinks this team is getting better as time goes by. Quinn, Peterka, Power, even Cozens and Dahlin are going to be better next year than they are this year.  A lot more players are getting better than are getting worse due to age.  Patience, while many don't want to wait anymore, will make this team better.  I'm not saying this team should not makes moves/trades to get better, but I don't want to force them.  I don't want to trade a 1st or Rosen or Östlund unless I am getting a legit star.  No way do I think Demko is at the level of being a star. Chychrun, he is closer to that level but I'm not sure what you give for him will be worth it on this team.  What this team needs is someone who will be comfortable slotting in the 3rd pair and will be a GREAT #5 or #6 D-man....or a very good #3/4 guy who is OK with getting 3rd pair minutes when everyone is healthy.

[Marvin]

Neither player, particularly at the prices they will command, but the positions targetted are correct.

[GASabresIUFAN]

5 hours ago, LGR4GM said:

He should invest in defense. For me, that's not Chychrun due to price and injury history but Adams needs to find another 3/4 defenseman and I have doubts one exists in this system currently. 

Of course their isn’t one.  You have to draft a few higher in the draft than the 4th rd, other than Power.  Johnson is the closest but there is no guarantee he signs here.  In the last 3 drafts we have had 13 picks in the top 3 rounds and drafted only 1 D (and only 1 G).  This is not a shot at KA, who has done a very good job drafting overall, but just a statistical fact.  If you want a top 4 D, you typically have to draft one and most are top 3 rd picks.  

Therefore KA if he is serious about a top 4 D and news reports say he is, he is going to have sign one next offseason or trade significant assets to get one.

Who else would you go after and at what cost?

Edited December 15, 2022 by GASabresIUFAN

[Weave]

I don’t know about Demko, but we don’t have a goalie until we actually have a goalie.  Until our miracle goalie actually signs, we need to prioritize goalie.

[ddaryl]

G will have to come in the offseason. Nobody is giving up a #1 or #2 G mid season.

 

D at trade deadline but they will go to teams in the playoffs who give up major assets.

 

We need a major overhaul to the G department which includes drafting another one early and shoring up the pipeline

We do need some D upgrades but those should be available if we are looking for a 3/4 D type player... Still won't be cheap.

 

 

As for whom we chose, I haven't a clue

Edited December 15, 2022 by ddaryl

[GASabresIUFAN]

39 minutes ago, Brawndo said:

How about both? 
 

From Elliotte Friedman 

8. The name we’re always discussing in Arizona is Jakob Chychrun, but more and more I’m wondering about Karel Vejmelka. Whether you believe in Moneypuck’s Goals Saved Above Expected metric (he’s first) or Clear Sight’s (third), he’s having a fantastic season and is signed for two more years at a $2.725 million AAV. 

Back in the 1993 MLB expansion draft, the Florida Marlins shocked everyone by taking highly paid closer Bryan Harvey — with the rationale being they wanted to give their young players (and fans) a few extra opportunities to win. Vejmelka’s got the same effect here, but if I needed a goalie and had the assets? (Purely made up by me: Would Los Angeles go after both Chychrun and Vejmelka?) 

Why would AZ trade Vejmelka?  Trading him would put them in our situation.  They have a decent guy in the A, but after that their next goalie has a 3.62 GAA in juniors.    Their current NHL backup is a waivers claim with a 4.57 GAA.  

Other than Demko, I doubt there is a legit goalie who can helps us available in season.  
 

Defense on the other hand, I think KA will have a much easier time finding help now, or at the deadline or in the off-season.  

[matter2003]

52 minutes ago, Brawndo said:

How about both? 
 

From Elliotte Friedman 

8. The name we’re always discussing in Arizona is Jakob Chychrun, but more and more I’m wondering about Karel Vejmelka. Whether you believe in Moneypuck’s Goals Saved Above Expected metric (he’s first) or Clear Sight’s (third), he’s having a fantastic season and is signed for two more years at a $2.725 million AAV. 

Back in the 1993 MLB expansion draft, the Florida Marlins shocked everyone by taking highly paid closer Bryan Harvey — with the rationale being they wanted to give their young players (and fans) a few extra opportunities to win. Vejmelka’s got the same effect here, but if I needed a goalie and had the assets? (Purely made up by me: Would Los Angeles go after both Chychrun and Vejmelka?) 

Comrie was 2nd in Goals Saved Above Expected last year in a much bigger sample size...how's that working out for us? even before getting hurt, other than the first game he has mostly stunk.

Edited December 15, 2022 by matter2003

[Crusader1969]

Chychrun is the easy answer 

better D, less grade A chances against and they will find out what they have in Comrie 

I don’t know if this stat exists but I bet Comrie, Anderson and even UPL have pretty good stats when Niether Bryson or Pilut are on the ice.  Especially at even strength 

 

[GASabresIUFAN]

6 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

Other than Demko, I doubt there is a legit goalie who can helps us available in season.  

I take that back. There is another goalie with term, a decent track record, but has also been scuffling of late and that in Stl’s Binnington.  He has an NTC, but Stl would almost certainly trade him if they could. He has 4 years left at 6 mill, but if Bales thinks he can fix them problem (like he thought with Murray), he’d be a much cheaper acquisition vs Demko.  
 

[nfreeman]

I don't think the Sabres will trade their #1 in 2023 unless they know it's not in the top 10 -- so that means they will either trade it with top-10 protection, or they will wait until the summer.

I don't think Van will trade Demko or AZ will trade Chychrun without receiving a 2023 #1 in the deal -- so that means no trade with the Sabres until the summer.

I suspect that KA thinks that goalies generally are too up-and-down to justify giving up major assets in trade for them -- so I think a trade for a good defenseman is more likely than a trade for a good goalie.

I think that KA is open to trading during the season or the summer, but a summer trade is more likely as there will be more of an active market.

I agree with @GASabresIUFAN that it seems pretty unlikely that AZ would trade Vejmelka.

[matter2003]

22 minutes ago, Crusader1969 said:

Chychrun is the easy answer 

better D, less grade A chances against and they will find out what they have in Comrie 

I don’t know if this stat exists but I bet Comrie, Anderson and even UPL have pretty good stats when Niether Bryson or Pilut are on the ice.  Especially at even strength 

 

I doubt that is going to change the fact Comrie and UPL have been among the worst goalies in the NHL at saving goals they are expected to save that go in.  That's all factored in.

Out of 79 goalies at 5v5 , Comrie is 66th at -0.54 GSAA/60 and UPL is 55th at -0.36 GSAA/60.  Meaning Comire allows 1 extra goal that he is expected to save every 2 games(a little under actually) and UPL allows 1 extra goal every 3 games(a little under actually). 

Anderson is 29th at 0.18 GSAA/60 meaning he is slightly above average.

The bigger issue is on the PK where UPL is absolutely dreadful and is 77th out of 79 goalies, with a GSAA/60 of -11.49, meaning if the Sabres were on the PK the entire game, he would allow 11-12 goals more than an average goalie...that is terrible.

Comrie has been bad as well ranking 69th at -3.90 GSAA/60 on the PK.

Anderson has been excellent on the PK ranking 7th in the NHL at 3.18 GSAA/60, meaning he saves an additional 3+ goals than an average goalie would...meaning the difference between Anderson and UPL on the PK is almost 15 goals per game. 

So basically, Anderson has been by far and away the best goalie on the team but I don't think you needed any fancy stat breakdowns to see that. Also don't think making saves you should make has any effect on who is on the ice.

Edited December 15, 2022 by matter2003

[GASabresIUFAN]

The Sabres have played only 5 games with all 6 starting D in the lineup.  Their record is 4-1-0. (17% of games ytd).

The Sabres have played 10 with 5 of the 6 starters.  Their record 4-4-2

The Sabres have played  8 games with only 4 starters.  Their record is 2-6

Interestingly, when down to 3 starters, they went 3-2 in those 5 games.  

Our record without Samuelsson was 3-10 and without Joki so far 5-8.  

We’ll be down to 5 starters for the foreseeable future as Jokiharju is week to week and on IR. Lyubushkin is skating and could return soon.
 

 

[Brawndo]

2 hours ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

Why would AZ trade Vejmelka?  Trading him would put them in our situation.  They have a decent guy in the A, but after that their next goalie has a 3.62 GAA in juniors.    Their current NHL backup is a waivers claim with a 4.57 GAA.  

Other than Demko, I doubt there is a legit goalie who can helps us available in season.  
 

Defense on the other hand, I think KA will have a much easier time finding help now, or at the deadline or in the off-season.  

The Same Reason that Tim Murray did during the 2014-15 Season