GDT: 🏒 Los Angeles Kings @ Buffalo Sabres) 13 December 2022' 7:00 PM ET* MSG! WGR?

[spndnchz]

IMO it’s not what your teammates are making it’s what the league average is. 

[Thorner]

6 minutes ago, JohnC said:

As you are suggesting salaries go up. So when his contract is up and it is time to negotiate a new deal, the player and agent are going to go for a market deal. Players are not dumb. They are well aware that it is a business. They'll get what the market indicates they should get. A discounted deal for one player doesn't necessarily carry over to another player who is looking for a market value. (As you are stating.)

Even a situation like Tampa, the gold standard of “players buy in at a discount” set the “limit” at the Kucherov 9.5. A superstar # when signed, not to mention the tax discount being in Tampa. The Buffalo Sabres of western NY won’t get away, in 2022, with a “don’t peak behind the Skinner curtain, 7.5 mil TNT-proof” ceiling. 

If Dahlin does us a massive solid, he comes in at 10 flat and maybe, with generous, love to be here unity among players, THAT sets somewhat of a ceiling 

Edited December 14, 2022 by Thorny

[K-9]

Tage being underpaid by millions to players with comparable stats has absolutely ZERO bearing on what Cozens, Dahlin, or any other player on the team negotiate in the future. 

[French Collection]

1 minute ago, K-9 said:

Tage being underpaid by millions to players with comparable stats has absolutely ZERO bearing on what Cozens, Dahlin, or any other player on the team negotiate in the future. 

I realize the chance of this happening is low but Crosby, Bergeron, Marchand and others left millions on the table in order for the teams to get more good players and keep their teams competitive for a long time.

[Thorner]

2 minutes ago, K-9 said:

Tage being underpaid by millions to players with comparable stats has absolutely ZERO bearing on what Cozens, Dahlin, or any other player on the team negotiate in the future. 

Agree, and it should also be noted that Tage didn’t “take a discount”, presenting an example for others to follow. He went with job security - a reasonable strategy. But it would be disingenuous to suggest he willingly chose to forgo more elsewhere - he just went with the less risky play.

[Thorner]

Just now, French Collection said:

I realize the chance of this happening is low but Crosby, Bergeron, Marchand and others left millions on the table in order for the teams to get more good players and keep their teams competitive for a long time.

These are players that already banked oodles and oodles of cash. Crosby is a 10 million dollar play. Any idea how much he makes in endorsements? This isn’t a Dylan Cozens taking a 25% shave off his first shot at a big deal

im sorry and I say this from a spot of trying to help: people are out to lunch on this. Please prepare yourself for players to sign for much closer to market value than anything construed as a solid to their corporate bosses 

[K-9]

3 minutes ago, Thorny said:

Agree, and it should also be noted that Tage didn’t “take a discount”, presenting an example for others to follow. He went with job security - a reasonable strategy. But it would be disingenuous to suggest he willingly chose to forgo more elsewhere - he just went with the less risky play.

Yep. It is interesting that Tage is under paid strictly in retrospect. 

[K-9]

6 minutes ago, French Collection said:

I realize the chance of this happening is low but Crosby, Bergeron, Marchand and others left millions on the table in order for the teams to get more good players and keep their teams competitive for a long time.

It would be great if Cozens, Dahlin, et al were willing to take a discount. But it’s important to remember that Tage didn’t take a discount when he signed his deal. 

[French Collection]

1 minute ago, Thorny said:

These are players that already banked oodles and oodles of cash. Crosby is a 10 million dollar play. Any idea how much he makes in endorsements? This isn’t a Dylan Cozens taking a 25% shave off his first shot at a big deal

im sorry and I say this from a spot of trying to help: people are out to lunch on this. Please prepare yourself for players to sign for much closer to market value than anything construed as a solid to their corporate bosses 

Crosby could have maxed out and got 12-13 in his prime.

You are right about Tage going for security but he could probably sense he could have made more waiting for the season to end. I think he wants to be a part of this team.

Dahlin getting $10 would be a great deal for Buffalo. Cozens’ deal may set the tone for Quinn and Peterka.

The cap space the Sabres have will be used up faster than we think. Bettman hinted at nearly no cap raise yesterday.

The Sabres can lock up the core on “cheap” long term deals due to them coming off ELCs and/or being RFAs.

[nfreeman]

32 minutes ago, Thorny said:

Exactly - it’s on Tage for signing early. If other players wait, you can’t expect them to take massive discounts on their value. Dahlin is well, well beyond the 7 mil value now. Tbh, if Cozens holds up, his market value is also beyond 7. He’ll be younger, and coming off a better season than Tage did when he signed his deal. 

It’s not 2006 anymore - 7 million is not a star player. Tage is closer to being underpaid by *100%* than he is to “good money but not excessive”. He’s being paid like a good second line C and he’s playing like a franchise C. 

All of this is fair -- but it's also fair that the contract numbers I mentioned are good 2C numbers, which is what Cozens seems to be.

Having said that, I agree that Dahlin is likely a $9MM+ guy, if not $10MM.

[Thorner]

21 minutes ago, K-9 said:

And it’s a key point though. He didn’t take a team discount. The Sabres won the day with a shrewd evaluation. Make no mistake, if this business was all sunshine and daisies, maybe Adams since he wants players to want to be here and values the culture so much, allows Tage to renegotiate here instead of probably playing out a deal that frankly greatly underpays the man for his services. Tage is already on track to lose out on at least *20-30 million* in “deserved” pay over the course of his deal. We are frankly stealing from him. 

So do we see Adams giving him the raise he deserves? Lol, right? And make no mistake, with the trend of playing for expected performance rather than past, it’s unlikely Tage makes up ground on deal 2. The Sabres aren’t going to do Tage a solid here, neither should we expect the players to do so.

The Sabres absolutely cannot and I’d argue will not use this excellent work from Adams as a lever to undercut the values of his other guys. Tantamount to a “gotcha” - “you all now need to take extravagantly team favourable deals.” 

The Sabres savings with Tage are benefit enough. We can appreciate the significant flexibility having an all-star locked up to a 2nd liner’s deal provides without expecting this sort of lucky value to be transmitted among the new deals for other players. 

That’s not to say we won’t see discounts: the exact process that led to Adams identifying Tage early presumably leads to future savvy evaluations. That is to say: ppl may be right that the Tage deal might mean future good value deals: but not because they’ll be “granted” to KA because he discovered some sort of contract anchor loophole. But rather, because the processes that are evidently leading to the revelation that he’s a good GM are likely to carry forward 

7 minutes ago, nfreeman said:

All of this is fair -- but it's also fair that the contract numbers I mentioned are good 2C numbers, which is what Cozens seems to be.

Having said that, I agree that Dahlin is likely a $9MM+ guy, if not $10MM.

Disagree. Cozens right now is producing as a 1C. So he “seems to be” a 1C. Isn’t he still getting better? 

Dahlin won’t be below 10. Dude is pacing for 100 as a franchise D!

Edited December 14, 2022 by Thorny

[Thorner]

9 minutes ago, French Collection said:

Crosby could have maxed out and got 12-13 in his prime.

You are right about Tage going for security but he could probably sense he could have made more waiting for the season to end. I think he wants to be a part of this team.

Dahlin getting $10 would be a great deal for Buffalo. Cozens’ deal may set the tone for Quinn and Peterka.

The cap space the Sabres have will be used up faster than we think. Bettman hinted at nearly no cap raise yesterday.

The Sabres can lock up the core on “cheap” long term deals due to them coming off ELCs and/or being RFAs.

Exactly what I was saying, though ^

Crosby was a double digits guy who took less to... remain double digits. He already got his big deal. 

The types of guys we are talking about re: discounts right now, the Dylan Cozens etc are not analogous comparisons 

[K-9]

9 minutes ago, Thorny said:

And it’s a key point though. He didn’t take a team discount. The Sabres won the day with a shrewd evaluation. Make no mistake, if this business was all sunshine and daisies, maybe Adams since he wants players to want to be here and values the culture so much, allows Tage to renegotiate here instead of probably playing out a deal that frankly greatly underpays the man for his services. Tage is already on track to lose out on at least *20-30 million* in “deserved” pay over the course of his deal. We are frankly stealing from him. 

So do we see Adams giving him the raise he deserves? Lol, right? And make no mistake, with the trend of playing for expected performance rather than past, it’s unlikely Tage makes up ground on deal 2.

Per the bold, what’s the deal with NHL contracts? Can KA renegotiate Tage’s deal? 

[Thorner]

Just now, K-9 said:

Per the bold, what’s the deal with NHL contracts? Can KA renegotiate Tage’s deal? 

No lol

But I think we all know what would (or wouldn’t) happen, if we could 

[nfreeman]

2 minutes ago, Thorny said:

Disagree. Cozens right now is producing as a 1C. So he “seems to be” a 1C. Isn’t he still getting better? 

Dahlin won’t be below 10. Dude is pacing for 100 as a franchise D!

You're kinda alternating between using "pacing" to support your positions and denigrating the use of "pacing", innit?

In any case, I don't think the NHL generally would view Cozens as a 1C, or pay him as such, especially since he's only produced real scoring numbers for 29 games. 

Again, my assumption was that he ends up the season at around 65 pts.  That's not expensive 1C production, especially on an all-offense, zero-defense team.

As for Dahlin, there are only 2 defensemen in the NHL making more than $9.6MM per year -- Karlsson and Doughty, both of whom signed huge contracts as established star defensemen. 

There are 4 defensemen making $9.5MM to $9.6MM -- Werenski, Fox, McAvoy and Seth Jones.  All of those contracts took effect this season (so some were likely signed in 2021).  After that we drop down to Darnell Nurse at $9.25MM, Roman Josi at $9.1MM and Dougie Hamilton and Makar at $9MM.  No one else is at or above $9MM.

So, there are a total of 10 defensemen making $9MM or more, and only 2 making $9.6MM or more.  It's certainly possible that Dahlin ends up with 100 pts and the Sabres reward him for that one huge year, despite a prior career-high of 53 pts, but I think something in the nines is more likely.

[LGR4GM]

1 hour ago, Thorny said:

Why? Why would people need to pretend Tage is being accurately paid? It’s a massive elephant in the room - I don’t think the real world works like that where context can just be willfully ignored. 

If Thompson’s deal is going to artificially sink all his teammates new deals I’m not sure how popular he’ll be in the room or the GM for that matter. It would seem almost a trick. Get one guy locked up severely under value and expect all the rest to play ball by that number? 

Jut can’t see it honestly 

Okay, well I don't agree. 

[Sabres Fan in NS]

Dahlin is under contract for this and next season.  He is a Norris candidate this season.

If he signs an extension this summer it will likely be 8 years at $10M.

If he and / or the Sabres wait until next summer it will be 8 years at $12M.

I think both will agree to an 8 year $9.75M deal this summer.  It will be a bargain by the start of the first year of the new contract.

[LGR4GM]

1 hour ago, Thorny said:

Even a situation like Tampa, the gold standard of “players buy in at a discount” set the “limit” at the Kucherov 9.5. A superstar # when signed, not to mention the tax discount being in Tampa. The Buffalo Sabres of western NY won’t get away, in 2022, with a “don’t peak behind the Skinner curtain, 7.5 mil TNT-proof” ceiling. 

If Dahlin does us a massive solid, he comes in at 10 flat and maybe, with generous, love to be here unity among players, THAT sets somewhat of a ceiling 

That's not what I meant but go off.

[Sabres Fan in NS]

Cozens will sign the Tage contract this summer.

[Thorner]

19 minutes ago, nfreeman said:

You're kinda alternating between using "pacing" to support your positions and denigrating the use of "pacing", innit?

In any case, I don't think the NHL generally would view Cozens as a 1C, or pay him as such, especially since he's only produced real scoring numbers for 29 games. 

Again, my assumption was that he ends up the season at around 65 pts.  That's not expensive 1C production, especially on an all-offense, zero-defense team.

As for Dahlin, there are only 2 defensemen in the NHL making more than $9.6MM per year -- Karlsson and Doughty, both of whom signed huge contracts as established star defensemen. 

There are 4 defensemen making $9.5MM to $9.6MM -- Werenski, Fox, McAvoy and Seth Jones.  All of those contracts took effect this season (so some were likely signed in 2021).  After that we drop down to Darnell Nurse at $9.25MM, Roman Josi at $9.1MM and Dougie Hamilton and Makar at $9MM.  No one else is at or above $9MM.

So, there are a total of 10 defensemen making $9MM or more, and only 2 making $9.6MM or more.  It's certainly possible that Dahlin ends up with 100 pts and the Sabres reward him for that one huge year, despite a prior career-high of 53 pts, but I think something in the nines is more likely.

You gotta stop trying to catch me in a contradiction 

- - - 

im not alternating the base of my argument, I was playing under the “seems to be” lingo you introduced, under the prism of good faith. “Seems” isn’t “is”. Dylan indeed needs to continue to bear this out. But didn’t you see the part in my post where I said exactly that? That Cozens needs to complete the season this year? “Tbh, IF Cozens holds up” is what I said. 

But if your target was “seems to be”, we should make note of what it accurately is, under the context you’ve chosen 

1 hour ago, Thorny said:

Exactly - it’s on Tage for signing early. If other players wait, you can’t expect them to take massive discounts on their value. Dahlin is well, well beyond the 7 mil value now. Tbh, if Cozens holds up, his market value is also beyond 7. He’ll be younger, and coming off a better season than Tage did when he signed his deal. 

It’s not 2006 anymore - 7 million is not a star player. Tage is closer to being underpaid by *100%* than he is to “good money but not excessive”. He’s being paid like a good second line C and he’s playing like a franchise C. 

 

[Thorner]

17 minutes ago, Sabres Fan in NS said:

Cozens will sign the Tage contract this summer.

I think you are about right 

 

[MattPie]

1 hour ago, K-9 said:

Per the bold, what’s the deal with NHL contracts? Can KA renegotiate Tage’s deal? 

Not really. You could look at setting up separation waivers to void the contract, but somehow I don't think Tage would clear, lol.

1 hour ago, Thorny said:

No lol

But I think we all know what would (or wouldn’t) happen, if we could 

Yeah, no way KA starts paying Tage more out of the goodness of his heart.

[Huckleberry]

2 hours ago, spndnchz said:

IMO it’s not what your teammates are making it’s what the league average is. 

But sometimes what your teammates are making can destroy a locker room though.

[sabresparaavida]

28 minutes ago, MattPie said:

Not really. You could look at setting up separation waivers to void the contract, but somehow I don't think Tage would clear, lol.

Yeah, no way KA starts paying Tage more out of the goodness of his heart.

No way KA starts paying Tage more because NHL contracts can’t be re-negotiated. That contract is locked in already.

[French Collection]

1 hour ago, sabresparaavida said:

No way KA starts paying Tage more because NHL contracts can’t be re-negotiated. That contract is locked in already.

The other side of the coin is if a player is injured and cannot play, the controls react is paid in full.