The Sabres Roster - What do we have and what do we need?

[GASabresIUFAN]

The Athletic came out "player cards" and they say pretty much what we'd expect.  We are getting great contract value for the top 6 forwards (including Skinner) and top 3 d, and Anderson and nothing from anyone else.   I think that is probably a very accurate assessment of the team, except it's a little harsh on Jokiharju who I think when healthy has been very solid this season.

In fact it seems to be playing out much as I expected to start the season.  This is what I wrote in the Expectations for 2022/23 thread.

Quote

 

This is a younger, deeper and more talented team.  They will score more than they did last year and if they can stop of puck, they should jump in the standings.

Goaltending is still a big a question mark and the 3rd D pairing is suspect.  Those factors could keep this team from playoff contention.

 

I'd like to take that a step further and look at the team and try to think of how I'd approach the fix and try to anticipate how KA might do it.   

Forwards

Top Line - The return of Tuch, Tage and Skinner picked up where they left off last season and have been even better.  This is a great development for the team and they are all in their primes.  Hopefully this means they'll be at this level for at least the next 2-4 years.  Tage looks like the truly elite player this franchise has been desperate for up front.  

Second line - the Kiddie Corps.  Cozens, JJP and Quinn have found nearly instant chemistry and it's elevated them all.  The Cozens ytd is the player Jbot anticipated when he drafted him.  Quinn and JJP's historically great seasons in the A last year are translating to the NHL.  These 3 are quickly cementing themselves as core players now and in the future.  I expect Cozens to get a similar deal to Tage's this summer.

Now the question marks begin.  What are the futures for Mitts, VO, KO, Z, Jost, Asplund, Vinnie and Krebs. 

Casey, VO and Krebs are all signed for the next year.  If I were the GM, I'd trade VO as soon as I get the right offer.  We are desperate for D help and many teams are desperate for goal scorers.  To me this has hockey trade written all over it.  However, hockey trades like this are very rare at the deadline meaning that it's more likely the VO is traded this summer when teams have more cap flexibility.  I think Mitts and Krebs get another year, especially because they remain RFAs giving KA a longer runway to make a decision.  I would trade one but not both in the right deal for either a top 4 D or goaltender this summer.  That said both have limited futures here if they don't step up and contribute on a more regular basis.  

Jost and Asplund are RFAs.  Neither really adds much.  I had hoped that Asplund would take another step forward this season, but that doesn't seem the case and at 25 now seem unlikely.  He'd be cheap to retain and is still good defensively, but is that enough to keep him?  Jost has been decent since he arrived, but certainly isn't worth 2.0 per season to keep.  I can see KA re-signing to a two year deal with a pay cut to 1.5 per season.  

I don't think KO, Vinnie or Z have a future here any longer.  Vinnie is currently the 13 or 14th forward. If he wants to reprise that role next year, I guess KA might retain him, but I think he'll go elsewhere looking for PT.  The best thing we can do is trade KO to a contender at the deadline and give him a shot at winning a Cup if he wants to go.  As to re-signing him, I think it's possible because of his leadership on a 1 or 2 year deal at a much smaller cap figure; say 3 mill per season. However I suspect that this is his last season in Buffalo unless he retires and moves to the front office.  Of the 3, I think Z is the most likely to get re-signed.  He isn't really giving us 2.2 mill worth of play, but he brings a skill set that is absent from this team and also absent from the farm system.  That said, he could also be moved to a contender at the deadline looking for forward depth and physical play.  

Defense

Not a much to say about Dahlin, Samuelsson and Power.  They are excellent and are the core of this defense hopefully for the next decade.  

After them there is almost nothing.  Jokiharju is signed as has been decent this season when healthy, but seems better fit for a 3rd pairing role than the 2nd pairing job he now holds.  Lyubushkin has been ok the few games he has played, but he really hasn't made the team better.  He was signed as a stop gap and will return for year two of his deal, but hopefully he'll be upgraded then.  Bryson also has one more year, but keeping him beyond this season seems like a mistake.  He just doesn't bring enough to justify a roster spot any longer.  The depth after them is garbage and they all need to be replaced.  Fitz is a good AHL D and Pilut probably as well. Neither would see any minutes for a good hockey team and shouldn't here.

Goaltender

Comrie was a good value bet by KA, but doesn't look comfortable playing behind a team with Buffalo's style of play.  He has one more year to prove me wrong and I hope he does.  Anderson has been stellar YTD and was early last year as well, but wore down as the season progressed.  I expect him to hang it up at year's end.  If he were interested, I'd also give him a chance at the deadline to move to a contender.  UPL is a bust and the sooner we admit it and move on the better.  None of these goaltenders are part of the solution. Comrie should return next year as the backup or 1B and KA needs to find away to bring in a legit starter.  Waiting for Levi is not a legit strategy.

So where does that leave the Sabres long-term.  It basically leaves us with 9-11 players; Tuch, Tage, Skinner, JJP, Cozens, Quinn, Dahlin, Power and Samuelsson as the core and Mitts (or Krebs) and Jokiharju as depth.  This illustrates how much work there really is to do.  

If I were the GM I'd be more aggressive in filling out this roster for next year.  I might even be tempted to work out a deal for Chychrun even if it were a slight overpayment.  After the 11 players I mentioned above, I'd bring back Bush (as the 7th D), Comrie, Jost, and Asplund (as the 13th forward).  I'd move on from Bryson, UPL, VO, KO, Mitts (or Krebs but not both), Fitz, Pilut, Anderson and UPL.  I'd retain Z, but only if I can't find some cheaper who does the same thing.

The moves

1) Trade for a goalie without trade protection or "wants to come here"  Maybe we can sign Varlamov? I'd also like to make a run at Adin Hill.

2) Chychrun as the 3rd D pair anchor - Obviously this is aggressive and expensive for a guy to play on the 3rd pair.  My goal here is to even out the minutes some with the first 2 pairings and partner him with Jokiharju to make a 3rd pair DG can confidently play 18+ a night.  I'd also pair him with Power on the 2nd PP to allow Power to freelance more on the PP like he did at Michigan.

3) Defensive D partner for Power.  Essentially a veteran Samuelsson type guy for Power.  Nick Jensen is at the top of my list. Luke Schenn also makes sense.

4) Savoie gets one of the vacant forward slots with Mitts/Krebs on the 3rd scoring line.  

5) Find someone like Compher or Woods to anchor the bottom 6 even if we have to over pay.  We have to get more physical and need an controlled emotional leader in the bottom 6.  

6) I'd like to give Rousek a chance in our bottom 6.

Obviously the odds of most of these ideas actually coming to pass are small.  Still I think it's the correct frame work if KA is serious about winning next year

The team would look something like this

Skinner Tage Tuch

JJP Cozens Quinn

Mitts Compher Savoie

Girgensons (?) Jost Rousek (Asplund)

Dahlin Samuelsson

Power Jensen

Chychrun Jokiharju (Lyubushkin)

Hill and Comrie

 

Edited December 12, 2022 by GASabresIUFAN

[Crusader1969]

Good work.  I like it.  Doesn’t seem unreasonable at all

im hoping the 1st domino - Chrychrun happens soon

he and Power can anchor PP2   Or he could play the role that Cozens has on PP1 and then flip Cozens for Skinner,

JT compher would be an excellent 3C.  I’m sure that people won’t be happy to see Mitts name on the roster but I’m not there yet 

As for the 4th line  winger, I’d like to see someone who  has a high work rate and can forecheck / play physical 

otherwise I’m good with what you have 

having 7. NHL competent Dmen would be huge. 
 

[GASabresIUFAN]

11 minutes ago, Crusader1969 said:

I’m sure that people won’t be happy to see Mitts name on the roster but I’m not there yet 

I kept Mitts over Krebs because he is top 6 insurance in case of injury.  He plays both center and wings and DG moved him up with Skinner suspended.  That said, if I were KA I’m listening to all offers for anyone outside our top 6 forwards and top 3 D.  If I have to move Joki to get Chychrun I’d consider it.

[Marvin]

40 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

I kept Mitts over Krebs because he is top 6 insurance in case of injury.  He plays both center and wings and DG moved him up with Skinner suspended.  That said, if I were KA I’m listening to all offers for anyone outside our top 6 forwards and top 3 D.  If I have to move Joki to get Chychrun I’d consider it.

I would not hesitate to move Jokiharu to get Chychrun.  I just doubt Arizona would take him.  Recall that the price is equivalent to an unprotected 2023 1st, a growing roster player, and a top prospect.  Jokiharu is none of these.  The guys you need to move for Chychrun at that price are, to my mind, flat out untouchable.

[GASabresIUFAN]

3 minutes ago, Marvin said:

I would not hesitate to move Jokiharu to get Chychrun.  I just doubt Arizona would take him.  Recall that the price is equivalent to an unprotected 2023 1st, a growing roster player, and a top prospect.  Jokiharu is none of these.  The guys you need to move for Chychrun at that price are, to my mind, flat out untouchable.

Don’t forget that part of any big trade is making the cap hits and roster positions work.  Like us AZ is near the cap floor.  If they move Chychrun they will have to take money back to stay cap compliant.  They may also want a D back to make the roster work.  We can make a deal work.  I’d offer Mitts (or Krebs) Östlund and a top 10 protected 1st in 2023.  I think that is more than a fair offer and its very close to the stated price.  

[Marvin]

11 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

Don’t forget that part of any big trade is making the cap hits and roster positions work.  Like us AZ is near the cap floor.  If they move Chychrun they will have to take money back to stay cap compliant.  They may also want a D back to make the roster work.  We can make a deal work.  I’d offer Mitts (or Krebs) Östlund and a top 10 protected 1st in 2023.  I think that is more than a fair offer and its very close to the stated price.  

I think you are grossly underestimating what Arizona wants for Chychrun.  Unless that price comes down, I would not pay it.  The ask is MORE than we got for Eichel, which is pretty steep for someone to be our 3 LHD or 2 RHD.  And here is what Spector et al. are saying about the ask:

1. You can't protect that 1st if you want Chychrun.

2. They want a 2nd first or an equivalent quality young, growing roster player.  Mittlestadt does not qualify.  Neither does Krebs.  Think 1 of Peterka, Cozens or Quinn.

3. They want a top prospect.  Östlund might qualify, but it might need to be Savoie or a 2nd one of Peterka, Cozens, or Quinn.

The price has not come down at all for over a year.  Chychrun has been on the block that long for a very good reason.  I view getting him to be a pipe dream.

[steveoath]

My thoughts:

We are not getting Chychrun. 

Mitts needs to go. 

I like Jost and Asplund. They serve a purpose, albeit a non sexy defence first one. I'd have them centring 3rd and 4th lines.

I'm torn on VO. But he needs to offer more all play if he is here beyond this season.

[GASabresIUFAN]

17 minutes ago, Marvin said:

I think you are grossly underestimating what Arizona wants for Chychrun.  Unless that price comes down, I would not pay it.  The ask is MORE than we got for Eichel, which is pretty steep for someone to be our 3 LHD or 2 RHD.  And here is what Spector et al. are saying about the ask:

1. You can't protect that 1st if you want Chychrun.

2. They want a 2nd first or an equivalent quality young, growing roster player.  Mittlestadt does not qualify.  Neither does Krebs.  Think 1 of Peterka, Cozens or Quinn.

3. They want a top prospect.  Östlund might qualify, but it might need to be Savoie or a 2nd one of Peterka, Cozens, or Quinn.

The price has not come down at all for over a year.  Chychrun has been on the block that long for a very good reason.  I view getting him to be a pipe dream.

Like I said in my post, some of what I proposed is unlikely.  That said, If Az is serious about moving Chychrun they will have to lower the price because no one is biting at the current price.  He is a very good player, but not an elite one.  I’m willing to pay a decent price to get him, but I plan to use him as a 3rd pairing player.  On most teams he is a second pairing guy and on good teams he’s a 2nd or even 3rd pairing guy.  

Unlike KA, my plan is flexible.  I know I need 2 more NHL D to make my plan work.  If I don’t get Chychrun, I’d be just as happy to get Schenn and Jensen. Maybe my 3rd pair won’t be as dynamic offensively, but it could become a good shutdown pair.   It would also cost less in term of assets and cap and actually bring in more veteran leadership on the backend which we also need.   

The key is to be flexible.

One other note.  If KA doesn’t want to invest in goaltending, then he better invest in better defensive Dmen.

Edited December 12, 2022 by GASabresIUFAN

[Marvin]

15 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

Like I said in my post, some of what I proposed is unlikely.  That said, If Az is serious about moving Chychrun they will have to lower the price because no one is biting at the current price.  He is a very good player, but not an elite one.  I’m willing to pay a decent price to get him, but I plan to use him as a 3rd pairing player.  On most teams he is a second pairing guy and on good teams he’s a 2nd or even 3rd pairing guy.  

Unlike KA, my plan is flexible.  I know I need 2 more NHL D to make my plan work.  If I don’t get Chychrun, I’d be just as happy to get Schenn and Jensen. Maybe my 3rd pair won’t be as dynamic offensively, but it could become a good shutdown pair.   It would also cost less in term of assets and cap and actually bring in more veteran leadership on the backend which we also need.   

The key is to be flexible.

One other note.  If KA doesn’t want to invest in goaltending, then he better invest in better defensive Dmen.

Adding 2 boring defencemen like Schenn and Jensen makes more sense to me unless their asking prices are ridiculous too.

[thewookie1]

I just don’t see Chychrun happening for his apparent cost.

Okposo is either back 1 more year at a lesser number or likely retires. 

Girgs is likely back due to leadership reasons.

The only way I see them giving up on UPL is if his play continues to be abhorrent; if not he’ll get another year due to his “age”

As for the rest of the D, I’m pretty much in line to rid ourselves of many of the failed younger guys. Jokiharju can stay though barring absurd trade potential.

Olofsson can be made redundant if Quinn grows into his role offensively.

Mitts and Krebs are hard to gauge due to their youth and sporadic great games.

[GASabresIUFAN]

1 hour ago, thewookie1 said:

Olofsson can be made redundant if Quinn grows into his role offensively.

I think we are already there.  

[Crusader1969]

2 hours ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

Don’t forget that part of any big trade is making the cap hits and roster positions work.  Like us AZ is near the cap floor.  If they move Chychrun they will have to take money back to stay cap compliant.  They may also want a D back to make the roster work.  We can make a deal work.  I’d offer Mitts (or Krebs) Östlund and a top 10 protected 1st in 2023.  I think that is more than a fair offer and its very close to the stated price.  

That’s a huge price to pay. If they take a young prospect like Krebs, then I hope the Sabres can get them to take a prospect a bit further down the food chain 

Kozak, Bloom are a couple of names that come to mind 

[Zamboni]

Speaking for myself only. Keeping it pithy on purpose. Keeping in mind the developing young guys. Keeping in mind the developing prospects who haven’t made the team yet.
 

What do we have? We have almost a complete talented roster.

 

What do we need? Better goaltending. And another top 4 Dman.

[Crusader1969]

2 hours ago, Marvin said:

I think you are grossly underestimating what Arizona wants for Chychrun.  Unless that price comes down, I would not pay it.  The ask is MORE than we got for Eichel, which is pretty steep for someone to be our 3 LHD or 2 RHD.  And here is what Spector et al. are saying about the ask:

1. You can't protect that 1st if you want Chychrun.

2. They want a 2nd first or an equivalent quality young, growing roster player.  Mittlestadt does not qualify.  Neither does Krebs.  Think 1 of Peterka, Cozens or Quinn.

3. They want a top prospect.  Östlund might qualify, but it might need to be Savoie or a 2nd one of Peterka, Cozens, or Quinn.

The price has not come down at all for over a year.  Chychrun has been on the block that long for a very good reason.  I view getting him to be a pipe dream.

Why would Krebs not qualify but Cozens would?  Same draft 

[Marvin]

1 minute ago, Crusader1969 said:

Why would Krebs not qualify but Cozens would?  Same draft 

Cozens is performing at a higher level.

[PromoTheRobot]

We have:

Two good lines

Two good D-pairs

What we need:

Two more of each.

A goalie.

[Doohicksie]

4 hours ago, Crusader1969 said:

having 7. NHL competent Dmen would be huge. 

I think the Sabres have 3 "top pairing" level Dmen.  Obviously only two can truly be top pair so the third (currently Power) is on the second pair. I would like to see the other three Sabres D be "2nd pairing" level such that when there are injuries we're not playing with a bunch of bottom pairing and AHL D.  We saw that in November and it sucked.  So ideally like to see:

1st pair level - 1st pair level
1st pair level - 2nd pair level
2nd pair level - 2nd pair level
3rd pair level as an extra.

Maybe the deficient D play we saw with injuries won't be as bad in the future with Muel and Power having another year of experience and if Donny actually starts prioritizing team defense and not just team offense.  But really I think they need better personnel.

I'm not as in much of a hurry to upgrade the forward ranks because the Rochester boys will be knocking the doors down.  Some rugged forward experience would be good but I don't think a real splash is needed at forward.

Given the situation in goal, I wonder if Kevyn is in talks with Levi about signing mid-season and jumping right to the NHL?  Or does everything think he needs some time in the A to adjust to the pro game?

[Doohicksie]

4 hours ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

I kept Mitts over Krebs because he is top 6 insurance in case of injury.  

Is he?  I think he's proving right now that's not the case.

[GASabresIUFAN]

14 minutes ago, Doohickie said:

Is he?  I think he's proving right now that's not the case.

Really?  How many guys play a top 6 role in the NHL?  Quick math says 192 (6 x 32).  Guess where Casey sits?  He is tied for 134th in pts and is tied for 151st in P/GP.  That's a top 6 level on most NHL teams.  I also think he played very well with Tuch and Tage in the game against Pitt.  

[pi2000]

Goaltending, defense depth, coaching, center depth... in that order.

[GASabresIUFAN]

1 minute ago, pi2000 said:

Goaltending, defense depth, coaching, center depth... in that order.

Fair enough, although I think we can make the goalies we have better by improving the D depth which I think can actually be done in season.  

[pi2000]

Just now, GASabresIUFAN said:

Fair enough, although I think we can make the goalies we have better by improving the D depth which I think can actually be done in season.  

I agree in that you can always reduce goals against by improving your depth on defense and getting the forwards to commit defensively.... both of which are significant needs for Buffalo. 

That said, IMHO their GAA would benefit more greatly from an upgrade in net than anything else.

[GASabresIUFAN]

2 minutes ago, pi2000 said:

I agree in that you can always reduce goals against by improving your depth on defense and getting the forwards to commit defensively.... both of which are significant needs for Buffalo. 

That said, IMHO their GAA would benefit more greatly from an upgrade in net than anything else.

Absolutely.  I listed it as the top priority for next season.  My second and third priorities were a legit top 4 partner for Power and more proven D depth in general.  

However if someone asked me today what KA can do today to improve the GAA, I'd say it's much easier to get D help in season then goaltending.  

Edited December 12, 2022 by GASabresIUFAN

[pi2000]

2 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

Absolutely.  I listed it as the top priority for next season.  My second and third priorities were a legit top 4 partner for Power and more proven D depth in general.  

However if someone asked me today what KA can do today to improve the GAA, I'd say it's much easier to get D help in season then goaltending.  

Marginally easier, perhaps.   There would need to a significant overpay to acquire a quality depth defender in-season, particularly before teams are reasonably eliminated from playoff contention.

[mjd1001]

Thinking about this after the last 2 losses....

1.) time.  Cozens, Peterka and Quinn look to be legit NHLers that will get better but it will take time.  Power is an NHL player but he will get better with time. Krebs can't get much worse with time, so hopefully he'll get better too.   There are more important players on this team that are young enough that they will get better with time than ones on the downside who will get worse.  If this EXACT team were to be put on the ice next year, with ZERO changes, they will be a better team than they are this year.

2.)  figure out the 3rd line with guys who can be productive (somewhat) with mid-level ice time (15-16 minute per game) and no PP time.  Your first line is set. Your young guns like might have ups and downs but they are good.  Your 4th line is good enough to do what they need to do.  That 3rd line is an issue. Don't need 3 new guys, but find 1 or two so you can get maybe 40-50 goals out of it (at least) without being a defensive liability.

3.)  Goaltending.  UPL still might get better.  Comrie hasn't had even a quarter season here non-injured.  Maybe its them with no outside help. Maybe you need someone else. Find a way to get better goaltending going forward than you have in the past.

4.)  I guess D-depth.  Everyone (just about) wants better 3rd pair guys, but no one is willing to give up a 2nd pair guy so he can be your 'better' 3rd pair guy.

So time, fix a 3rd line, and get better goaltending. That is all you need now.  Don't reach for something else and overpay (money or assets), change for the sake of change is something a lot of fans want, I'd rather be patient.