Are the Sabres out of the running for the playoffs?

[TRIP65]

On 12/7/2022 at 8:25 AM, K-9 said:

It’s sports. Anything can happen and until you are mathematically eliminated you are not out of the running. That’s why they play the games. You’d think Hamilton would know that. Then again …

 

Yes, I could become a Millionaire if I buy a Lotto ticket, mathematically possible. Gonna go get a LOAN for a Yacht!

[TRIP65]

On 12/7/2022 at 9:01 AM, Buffalonill said:

They aren't making the playoffs sadly .

 The famous "always next year "will live on

TWELVE

[TRIP65]

On 12/7/2022 at 9:36 AM, Pimlach said:

So far, the story of this season is not enough depth at D, followed closely by not enough goaltending once again.  You have to add in that Tage is real, Dahlin has a good shot at the Norris, Cozens is emerging, and the rookies (Power, Quinn, Peterka) all look very good. 

Sure.  Win 4 straight and we will all be talking about a playoff run except for maybe a few here.  

I don't think they are out of it, and they should not play like they are out of it.   I certainly want them to get back to beating the Leaves and to start beating Boston, Tampa and Florida. 

Dahlin has blown the Norris shot

Yes TUCH is REAL, line is CRAP without him.

Peterka is a waste spot for a 30 goal scorer who gets you to the playoffs. Care less he skates well.

[Randall Flagg]

41 minutes ago, Thorny said:

I know dudacek looks down on my posts because I attempt to set parameters in advance that I feel fairly define success, in advance so that I’m not tempted to fall into my own personal bias - I suppose it’s my mistake for attempting to *define* success: because if you set an actual mark, you can observably fall short. Whereas if you make success less definable, less tangible, less about results it’s easier to achieve goals, as the goals can shift. 

but I find the numbers useful. Especially in the macro, which I speak to a lot. There’s simply miles of precedent set for how much teams can and do usually improve, points wise, year over year. Of course there are always exceptions, none of my use of the numbers is rigid, but they illustrate how common it is to take huge point jumps, etc. To me looking at the point total this year actually matters - because if we finish with 80 points and people are touting “improvement” and “wildly successful” for a 5 point year-over-year gain...logically, then, what’s to say we won’t see the same people satisfied by the same improvement should it take place next year, another 5 points? Why not? We’ve already seen it. Then, 85 points next year becomes enough. Then why not 90 the following year? Quickly creating a scenario where a  guy was GM for 5 years and didn’t make the playoffs. No positive skew available there - an abject fail. 

They say “where you end up often depends on where you start”. If we start next season off a base of 87 points this year, hey, we improved 12 points year over year, another 12 and we make it.

so ya, how big a step we take this year, which, yes, I’d argue is largely statistically definable, really matters to me. We are still on a decent pace- but I’ve found the recent stretch worrisome 

Even though we are pretty much out, I place way more value than I normally would on these last 17

[TRIP65]

On 12/7/2022 at 10:41 AM, Drag0nDan said:

Only way they can is if they make up the ground with an equally long winning streak, especially against Eastern conference opponents ahead of them in the standings.  

Abysmal at home, NOT possible unless they go 80-90% at home. Not reasonable they keep up Away record.

On 12/7/2022 at 11:04 AM, Taro T said:

Really expect that at some point they'll get a 5-6 game winning streak.  (Doubt it happens before Comrie comes back, but they're in a stretch of winnable games now, so who knows.)

Expect in general, they'll play NHL 0.500 until Comrie is back & NHL 0.600 after he's back.  With the youth they have expect them to continue to improve throughout the year which should make those predictions low should other teams still look at them as bottom feeders but expect by the end of the month teams will be playing their top net minder against them & they'll be ready to have a tough game (due to speed, not rough stuff) so so those changes will likely offset each other.

They have a great chance to be in the mix for the playoffs.  To get in, is obviously a very tall order w/ the current GTing.  But likely comes down to can they find a 2nd 5-6 game W streak & can they avoid another 5+ game losing streak.  If the answer to both is yes, will say they'll be in the playoffs.  If no to either, then no.  Really expect they've got a good chance of getting that 2nd W streak.  But not convinced they can avoid another losing streak.  As we saw last month, all it takes to go on 1 is have a tough stretch of schedule with a stinker game in the gimme sprinkled inside that stretch.

If they could find a really good PKer that would help too.  The PK is killing them.  (GT is your best PKer.)

Columbus was WINNABLE? look what happened.

Edited March 13, 2023 by TRIP65

[dudacek]

43 minutes ago, Thorny said:

I know dudacek looks down on my posts because I attempt to set parameters in advance  

I don’t look down on this at all and am sorry if my posting has come across that way.

 

[TRIP65]

On 3/10/2023 at 8:47 AM, LGR4GM said:

Jack Quinn is one of if not the best defensive forward on the team. Idk why he is constantly lumped in with JJP. 

The rest though I think is a major contributing factor. I think of Olofsson not getting the puck the other night and just streaking out of the zone as though he thought someone else would clean up his mess only to be late getting back into the play on a goal. It is indicative of how other forwards play defense on this team. 

Quinn is a offense problem, just doesn't shoot enough. Getting better though. Oloffson a defensive nightmare. Middlestat is a goal scoring problem too. Peterka is just a PROBLEM

[North Buffalo]

Lots of inter divisional games this week with teams fighting for playoffs and positions... Gonna be interesting.

[wiselyman3]

After tonight's win, if we can win Wednesday and Friday, we'll be right back in it. Tons of losable games for the other wild card contend this week. We'll see...

[Marvin]

9 hours ago, wiselyman3 said:

After tonight's win, if we can win Wednesday and Friday, we'll be right back in it. Tons of losable games for the other wild card contend this week. We'll see...

We really need to beat the teams around us in the East.  Those 4 point games are huge.

And welcome to the board!

Edited March 14, 2023 by Marvin

[CallawaySabres]

My only wish the rest of the season is to be within striking distance by the time Boston comes to town on Sunday. It will be the last game of the year I can go with my kids and really want it to mean something in the standings.

[Drag0nDan]

9 hours ago, wiselyman3 said:

After tonight's win, if we can win Wednesday and Friday, we'll be right back in it. Tons of losable games for the other wild card contend this week. We'll see...

They're not out of it - but they need to put a serious run together.  I'd wager they need... 24 out of 32 points to feel good about their chances.  20 would be bare minimum.  

[Wyldnwoody44]

We are out of it. 

We folded this week when we simply couldn't afford it. 

It's a feel good win against the leafs (it always is) but too little, too late. 

[Marvin]

23 hours ago, wiselyman3 said:

After tonight's win, if we can win Wednesday and Friday, we'll be right back in it. Tons of losable games for the other wild card contend this week. We'll see...

We really need to beat the teams around us in the East.  Those 4 point games are huge.

FYI: The range from 7th to 13th in the East is 9 points (78 - 69).  One loss for anyone is trouble.

[Taro T]

7 hours ago, Marvin said:

We really need to beat the teams around us in the East.  Those 4 point games are huge.

FYI: The range from 7th to 13th in the East is 9 points (78 - 69).  One loss for anyone is trouble.

And courtesy of everybody else in the top 7 WC slots losing their last game, should the Sabres win all their games in hand, they'd be in the 8th seed.  A tall order, but they are still in a position where they can take care of matters on their own without worrying about what anybody else is doing.  They still are very much in this race on the Ides of March.  10 years since that was the case.

[Skooby]

Great night last night, we control our own destiny now & can create some distance on the Caps tonight.

[Stoner]

22 minutes ago, Skooby said:

Great night last night, we control our own destiny now & can create some distance on the Caps tonight.

I don't see how that expression applies here. They need to win a lot and get a fair amount of help.

Am I being a stickler?

[JohnC]

11 minutes ago, Skooby said:

Great night last night, we control our own destiny now & can create some distance on the Caps tonight.

The Caps are dealing with a number of injuries and banged up players (as we also are) that is affecting their play. The organization took an honest assessment in what the status of this team was. It then dealt some players around the trade deadline. It wasn't a major sell-off but it did indicate that a reworking of the roster was at hand. If Ovechkin wasn't chasing the Gretsky record, there would have been a bigger tear down. The key to this game is for the Sabres to play a fast-paced game and outrun them. They can't keep up. If this team allows itself to get distracted by physical play and foolishly falls into that trap of tit-for-tat, we will being playing into their hands and neutralizing our asset of speed. The Caps played last night in NY and lost. Ovechkin did not play. If the Sabres play their game they should come away with a win. We are at the stage where each game is important, there are no more meaningless games. It's simply a case of taking care of one's own business and not worrying about what you can't control. These next two road games will determine if we stay in the hunt or if we fall by the wayside. (I'm so glad that Tuch is back.)

[Taro T]

14 minutes ago, PASabreFan said:

I don't see how that expression applies here. They need to win a lot and get a fair amount of help.

Am I being a stickler?

They are 5 points back of the Aisles with 3 games in hand.  They are 2 points back of the Swamp Cats with a game in hand and should that one be won in regulation they will hold the tie breaker.  They are ahead of all the other contenders except the Pens, either on straight out points or via tie breaker with the Caps and they have at least 1 game in hand on everybody including the Pens.

Win their games in hand, and literally they are in a playoff spot.  Which means they literally can control their own destiny regardless of what any of the other teams do (provided they win their head to head games with the others in the chase, which again is a case of controling their own destiny).  Winning out, which is unrealistic with 16 games to go and they're in.  Only losing as often as the other teams do, (after they've won their games in hand) both of which are realistic, and they're in.

Edited March 15, 2023 by Taro T

[matter2003]

They want to make it a dramatic, last day of the season, watch an OT game for the Isles after they play in the dressing room to see them lose and get in the playoffs that way like the Bills did...

[Taro T]

10 minutes ago, matter2003 said:

They want to make it a dramatic, last day of the season, watch an OT game for the Isles after they play in the dressing room to see them lose and get in the playoffs that way like the Bills did...

Cool scenario.  How you going to get the Sabres to not watch that OT period for 2 days? ;)

The Aisles last game is on a Wednesday.  The Sabres close out the home schedule on that Thursday and then have their makeup game in Columbus on Friday.

[DarthEbriate]

Florida has the best path to 8th and have been playing solidly since February started. The Islanders have had stretches of malaise throughout the season and may be caught in one now on their California trip.

The Sabres are the streakiest team and are hopefully coming out of one of their worst streaks of the season. It all comes down to the head-to-head matchups remaining. If the Sabres win on 3/25 and 4/4 it is going to get very, very entertaining.

[Randall Flagg]

1 hour ago, Taro T said:

Cool scenario.  How you going to get the Sabres to not watch that OT period for 2 days? 😉

The Aisles last game is on a Wednesday.  The Sabres close out the home schedule on that Thursday and then have their makeup game in Columbus on Friday.

Im going to both of those if we have a shot 

[Taro T]

37 minutes ago, Randall Flagg said:

Im going to both of those if we have a shot 

Will defintely be at the Otter game.  Can't justify driving to Columbus for a game.

[Randall Flagg]

43 minutes ago, Taro T said:

Will defintely be at the Otter game.  Can't justify driving to Columbus for a game.

Me either but if a win gets us in I'm finding an excuse